The Giants jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning led by Hunter Pence's 3 run HR. Bruce Bochy brought his quick hook to the game yanking Barry Zito after 2.1 IP and using a total of 7 pitchers in the game. The Giants held on for the win. Key Lines:
Angel Pagan- 1 for 4, 2B, BB. BA= .291 Pagan led off the game with a double and scored the first run.
Hunter Pence- 1 for 3, HR(19), BB. BA= .260.
Joaquin Arias- 1 for 3, 3B, HBP. BA= .283. Arias drove in the needed insurance runs with a fading drive down the 3B line that the LF was not able to hold after a diving attempt at a catch.
Barry Zito- 2.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 4.42. Bochy has definitely shifted into another gear with his late season managing. If you're the pitcher and he doesn't think you have it, he's not waiting around for proof.
George Kontos- 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 2.08. I believe this was the highest leverage situation Kontos has pitched in and did he ever rise to the occasion? I'm guessing we're going to be seeing more of George in important situations down the stretch.
Jeremy Affeldt- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.86. Affeldt's stuff looked a lot better tonight. He's been commuting home to Spokane, WA to check in on his pregnant wife who has now delivered. I"m thinking that could have something to do with his recent subpar appearances.
Santiago Casilla- 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.92. The Bochy Rule: You get to stay in there until you give up a hit or a walk, then on to the next guy.
Javier Lopez- 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K. ERA= 2.43. With a runner on first and 1 out, Buster Posey called for a fastball in the inside corner rather than a slider off the outside corner. I don't think Kruk and Kuip agreed with that call. The batter, Jason Castro, smoked it down the 1B line right into Brandon Belt's waiting glove. Belt and Crawford turned the easy DP. Game over!
The Dodgers won a slugfest over the Rockies 10-8 in Coors Field to remain 3.5 games behind the NL West leading Giants. The D'Backs, managed by Kirk Gibson, lost for the 6'th time in a row, this time 6-2 to the Cincinnati Reds to fall 9.5 games back. Might be too early to declare them out of it, but they seem to be fading fast.
Ryan Vogelsong faces Jordan Lyles tomorrow evening trying for a sweeeep of the hapless 'Stros.
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Boy when Zito doesn't have it, GET HIM OUTTA THERE. And that's just what Bochy did. That's managing.
ReplyDeleteIt sure will help to have the extra September bullpen arms, when Timmy and Bad Zito show up in the first few innings.
Pagan again, Arias again, and Pence finally...all good.
I think the message has been sent by Bochy - you perform you play, you don't perform you don't play. This will get the young'ns ready for the post season.
Bochy is definitely managing the past games like it's the playoffs. Knowing that the Bums revamped their offense, Bochy sees the importance if having to win as many games as possible (yes, sounds cliche.. but it's true) so the Bums can't overtake us.
ReplyDelete"The Bochy Rule: You get to stay in there until you give up a hit or a walk, then on to the next guy." ---> couldn't have said it any better.. short leashes for pitchers who don't have it.
bums lost their closer to an irregular heart beat
ReplyDeletefeel bad for him, but eff the bums
bochy's managing style a bit different this stretch run than 2010
a's now lead in the second wc spot and the way they are playing, i wont be surprised if they catch texas
Wow, didn't even know Kenley Jansen (Dodger's closer) had a problem. I hate to say, I like that kid. (Liked him even more when he let those two Padres steal home with the tying and winning runs earlier this year. Heh heh). Belisario (new LA closer) is damn good, though. Great job by the Rockies today, scoring 7 in the 8th, and forcing Mattingly to use Belisario today.
DeleteHeck, great job winning 2 of 3 and coming within a big hit away from sweeping. We need to put distance between us and LA before we run the gauntlet next week with AZ and LA, though AZ appears to be fading away into the desert, which is fine by me, as long as they beat LA along the way.
DeleteZito on a short leash, complete with choke collar. Have to do it.
ReplyDeleteGet those kids up here. In Chicago, on Saturday, ready to play. (Burriss, don't bother bringing the bat. Glove and spikes, that's all you're gonna to need.) Bochy is going to need some arms to ease games like this, against the friggin' Astros, where we have to use 7 pitchers.
Anyone have any thoughts on who might help shoulder the pitching load in September?
Really glad to see Pence jerk one. I don't keep track of those things, but Pence has to be getting BABIPed. He's hit a ton of shots that have found gloves since he got here.
They will probably choose from among these to bring up:
DeletePenny
Hacker
Otero
Edlefsen
Can anyone look into how often Romo, Lopez, Affeldt are used this year compared to their career averages?
That Penny/Hacker/Otero/Edlefsen looks right, as they are all on the 40 man. Hensley and Loux also. I do not think any of these cats should be placed in a leverage situation though, strictly cleanup roll. Hector Correa is on the 40 man as well...
DeleteRomo usually used over 60 games (68 and 65 last two) and 50-ish IP (62 and 48). Usage is more like 2011 though, with less IP/G. He's at 52 games and 40.1 IP, roughly on pace for 63 games and 49 IP, which is almost same as 2011.
DeleteLopez averaged 58 games and 44 IP since full-time reliever. Has 58 games already but only 29.2 IP. On pace for 70 games and 35 IP (plus whatever he does next two games)
Affeldt has averaged 69 games and 62 IP since full-time reliever. Has 52 games and 50.1 IP. On pace for 60 and 60 (plus next two games).
Bonus: Casilla average 49 and 51, already 56 and 49.1 IP, on pace 67 and 59 IP.
Out of the relievers, only Casilla is going way over his prior usage. The other three are within usage bounds, and very close to average usage.
I see people worried about the closer in the playoffs, but my gut tells me that Bochy will use the committee for the rest of the season, then either with one week to go or if in the playoffs, he will appoint Casilla again as closer, much like he did last two times he said we were using closer by committee, and then basically Casilla was it. That shows his faith in him as closer, whereas he could have appointed someone else this time but didn't.
I think they will let Casilla take it easy (relative to a full-time closer), especially since his usage is above prior usage, get his finger/blister healthy, get some rest while he can (again, relative to a closer), then when the time is right, name him closer again. Don't know if anyone noticed, but reporters asked him about Casilla recently and Bochy noted that Casilla is back in the committee with his recent good performances.
Pence is a .324 BABIP career, .326 in Houston, .320 in Philly, .280 with Giants.
DeleteBut since doubling in the Colorado series on August 11, in 17 games, roughly 3 weeks, he has hit .274/.347/.452/.799 with a .357 BABIP. The reason his BABIP is crazy high even though his batting line is below his career norms, is because he's striking out at a crazy rate, even during this hot streak (for him as a Giant), he struck out 20 times in 62 AB, roughly one in three, which is a horrendous rate. His overall numbers are still bad with us because he was just so cold his first 10 games with us, so he's actually been hitting well for us for more games than he was cold, but he was frozen before and now warming up.
But he got to start somewhere and he's been hot enough the past three weeks for us to win with that. Hopefully this Houston series will get him going and he carries us the rest of the way to the playoffs. He did it before for Phillies last season when he joined them, after a bit of coldness early on.
When he is going good, his strike-out rate is roughly 20% of his AB's (or 80% contact rate). Striking out a third of his time is roughly 70% contact rate.
Thanks for the info OGC!
DeleteAnd, really hoping Bochy finds a way to keep Arias in the lineup. I'm more than willing to give up Crawford's superior D for Arias' stick. Admittedly, Crawford has at least lived up to expectations with the bat. But, aside from a few mildly decent streaks, he's pretty much a non-factor with bat. And, man, Arias' liner to left in 6th, that was the difference in the ball game. Have to keep in while he's hot.
ReplyDeleteArias has massive gaps in his splits though, 333/364/467 against lefties, 239/282/348 against righties. He has 150 PA against righties, 130 against lefties. That stat coupled with the splits indicates to me that Bochy is using him properly.
DeleteCrawfords splits are 263/314/337 against lefties, 235/291/342 against righties. 297 PA against righties, 103 against lefties. All things equal against righties, the glove wizardy might win out for Craw. B/R has him at 1.5 dWAR, even with the early clankmittery.
Belt and Crawford are really really good defenders. That is the undervalued and hard to quantify aspect of the game. Bochy is flashing his quick hook, and I imagine while hot, Arias will get thrown in the mix. Pablo better start hitting to pull his weight as well.
Good call there on Pablo, Shankbone! Looked at his splits, and he's doing horrible against LHP, which happens to be Arias' forte. Maybe he can steal starts from Sandoval and Crawford against LHP. Plus give Scutaro a rest against a RHP once a week to keep Marco fresher.
DeleteI see that Arias is drawing the good vibes now, but not that long ago, he was sucking wind as a hitter, so I don't want to get sucked into the hype. Definitely get him regular ABs but not at the cost of knocking Crawford out of his nice streak of hitting (.321/.362/.415/.777 in last 18 games, 13 starts, August 7-29). BCraw is our future SS, Arias maybe can slot in at 2B in the future if he can beat out Theriot or Scutaro (whoever we keep for 2013) in spring.
But yeah, he's been doing some great hitting for us, won us some games.
Baggs wrote that Bochy is thinking about giving Arias a try in the outfield.
DeleteThanks for the split info Shank. I just get the feeling, when Arias is hot, splits play less into things.
DeleteOK, then, Sandoval out for lefties works for me.
I've hear Theriot, Scutaro and now Arias as outfield tryouts...
I'm with you on Arias. Need to get him in the lineup and go with the hot bat. The great thing is he isn't too shabby with the glove either! Baggs mentioned there is even consideration about moving Scutaro in the outfield just to get some more AB's for Arias. Not sure how I'd feel about that, but Boch recognizes we need our best hitters in there.
ReplyDeleteI noticed that too from Baggs. It was actually brought up a while back - I think Scutaro last played LF in like 2008 or 9. So perhaps Baggs is sensing a potential change. And I forgot that Blanco has trouble against LHP too. So add him to my list above of starters who could see rest the rest of the season against LHP: Blanco, Sandoval, Crawford.
DeleteShortstops have traditionally been able to move over to other positions relatively easily because of the athleticism necessary to field short makes it easier for them. Hence the defensive spectrum that Bill James created from hardest to easiest, with SS hardest, 1B easiest (relatively). For example, Arias had never played 3B that regularly before this season but look at how good he is already with limited play.
Now, if Scutaro was playing full-time LF, yeah, not sure if I would like that. Once a week out there to get Arias hot bat in the lineup and to keep it going, yeah, I can live with that.
Now is the D-backs could rally a bit (come on Gibby, fire up those troops) we can pad the lead a bit. I agree, they are not quite out of it but its getting close. OGC is looking like a soothsayer with his Gibson predictions at the start of the year, when he said teams do not respond to rah rah consistently. I think the ownership/GM handling of Justin Upton definitely didn't do any favors.
ReplyDeleteWow, good memory and thanks for the shoutout. I've found my memory to be degraded after I had my accident and mini-concussion, I didn't remember this even when you first mentioned it on my blog, took me a while to recall that. Also, my lack of sleep hasn't helped either.
DeleteYeah, their 1-run record is almost reversed now, 10 games under this season, 12 games over last season. And less soothing, more observation from close-up of Billy Martin's effects on teams when he came in to manage and when he was forced out. Gibson and Billy seem to be made of the same cloth, though Gibson has a lot more cred than Billy ever had (other than hanging around drinking with Mantle as a close buddy; now that's cred for Billy).
Yeah, I was shocked by the Upton sitch as well as the trade of Drew, though looking at their prospect, that made a lot of sense afterward. Still, Elmore is not lighting things up, which is not surprising, as well as he has done this season in AAA, he hadn't really done anything before, so to expect him to come up without a hiccup is not realistic.
Still, I have to give them props because they have had a pretty good record of bringing up guys and suddenly they are performing and doing well, like I still can't believe Goldschmidt is still doing so well, striking out so much, for example. Though I still wonder: is Parra having a down year because that is his talent level, or because they picked up Kubel in spite of how good Parra did last season, in a bit of a breakout season?
That's one of the things I like about Bochy - Rah-Rah managing is kept to a minimum and mostly in the clubhouse when it is done. He stands behind his guys (for better and worse) for the 162 game season. Sure makes for boring postgame interviews though.
DeleteWell back to work. Hmmmmmm...wonder if my boss could learn from Bochy.
OGC - do I detect a little scorn of Billy Martin? I have a soft spot for him, my first ever game I saw he was kicked out of to a rousing "take this job and shove it" on the loudspeakers and some fired up Oakland A's fans in the bleachers. I also have a soft spot because I come from the flats of Berkeley as well, went to BHS and am roughly the same size. Ultimate scrapper, Martin, not nearly as talented as Gibson for sure.
DeleteGoldschmidt is bizarro man. At least they traded away tat-man, I was getting so tired of him having success against us. Their pitching has taken a step back, and Bauer was not able to pull a Timmy. Its harder than Timmy made it look!
Bochy keeps it pretty level. I think that is generally a good policy. He seems to go out of his way to avoid bean ball wars, for example. Dusty and Donnie Two-Times both like to retaliate for real and perceived affronts. Bochy keeps it cool.
I am curious what rabbit Sabean will pull out of his hat. I have to think Andres Torres is being discussed. The ability to play all over the OF is a nice bonus, with superior speed and defense. I do not think they will leave Frankie Peggs on the playoff 25 that needs to be spelled out in 48 hours.
I don't have scorn for Billy. I reread my post and didn't think I was doing that, but I admire him for accomplishing all that he had in his career, both as player and manager. But still, that type of boss gets great short-term results, but you can only light the firecracker a few times before it gets old and falls on deaf ears.
DeleteI guess I was just referring to the fact that he's really only known for two things, long-time manager, particularly with Yankees on and off, mostly off, and his connection with Mantle. And I'm amazed with anyone who can drink like that and not end up dead at a young age. Most do not know how well he hit in the World Series, which made his name, he rose to the occasion, whereas offensively he wasn't that good a hitter normally. I think he did that as a manager too. But it does get old, it is not a formula for long-term career in one place.
I actually loved all the old A's commercials with Billy, I still remember the one he did with that fat guy who eventually became the Round Table pizza guy for a long while (Billy was auditioning the guy to be an A's fan and running him through the hoops; it was a hoot). In fact, I have always loved the A's brand of commercials, which has a sense of fun to go with the baseball. The only one I didn't care for was the big huge sign off the Bay Bridge making fun of the fact (at that time) that the Giants didn't have any World Series championship. I am hoping (and half expecting) that after this decade, the two teams will be about even in terms of championships won here in the Bay Area (and yes, I know the A's have 4 of them).
Yeah, good points about Bochy. I can still remember losing Krukow late in the season when we needed him because he brawled in a nice rhubarb at the mound (with the Cards if I remember right). So I appreciate how he does not retaliate and try to keep both sides even-keeled, which I think, to our discussion about Billy Martin, helps to keep his player calmed down too. That's why I appreciated Bonds, he realized how important he was to his team, so he would not put his health at risk by running into walls or getting into brawls.
I'm thinking Torres too, mainly because I know he made it through. I think Baggs (or one of the scribes) noted that he made it through (oh, yeah, I think in his recent chat on-line) waivers but don't think Alderson wants to help out the Giants in any way, unless the Giants overpay. He also noted that even if Alderson was willing, apparently there are not many internally interested in bringing back Torres (for some reason, he did not elaborate why).
Still, he would be a great pinch-runner, he would bring power and speed off the bench, plays superlative defense, that would be great off the bench. Plus he could platoon with Blanco.
Liked the Billy Ball era commercials.
DeleteThere was one where you are looking into a booth at the stadium, looking in at a bald guy in a short sleeve button up shirt. You see somewhere in the background that this guy is the Official Scorer. As he watches the field, you hear the announcer (King?) calling a crazy play.
1st and 3rd. Rickey Henderson breaks to steal 2nd. Ball gets thrown away. Guy on third takes home. Center Fielder throws the ball to third. Hits Rickey in the helmet, bounces off the 3B to the left fielder who picks up ball and throws home, but too late as Rickey scores.
King is all with the "Holy Toledo" and such. Camera never stops watching the guy in the booth. You don't see the play, you just see the guy sitting there watching this.
Then King goes: "And, we're waiting for a ruling from the Official Scorer."
Guy hasn't moved. Just sitting there with a completely lost look on his face. He has no idea how to score it. Frozen.
Water Cooler glugs in the background, breaking the silence.
King repeats: "Annnnd, we're waiting for a ruling from the Official Scorer."
Question??? Does Zito have one of those vested items contract???
ReplyDeleteMaybe like Zito has to reach so many innings pitched?
If so, it might become a regular event like yesterday.
He does but it's something like 400 IP over 2012 and 2013 to vest his full contract for 2014. I doubt that's factoring into any decisions here.
DeleteCot's:
Delete"option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13"
He's never had 200 IP with the Giants, though he's come close. 148 IP this year, not on pace to hit 200 IP.
There is no way that contract vests. No way. No way. (How desperate do I sound?)
I"m gonna make a flat out prediction here: Barry Zito will be a Giant in 2014. The difference between his salary and buyout is about $9 M. Where are you going to find a better pitcher than what Zito has been this year for $9 M or less?
DeleteI remember you making that call with Zito earlier in the season and I still agree with you on that, in terms of need and price.
DeleteHowever, I wonder if he will last that long with us. There had been talk show talk about a split between he and Posey, and I think that recent interview where he "blamed" himself for not shaking off Posey's pitch signs more often, is the first open crack on that possibility. He basically said that Posey was not calling "his" pitches, not too far off from blaming Posey for poor pitch selection, if you read between the lines.
And he is stinking up the rotation this month with his poor starts, so he's probably not going to make the playoff roster again, should we make it in again.
By next season, he "only" got $27M left on his contract (oh, according to BB-Ref, that's $11M difference between option salary and buyout), so the Giants could conceivably decide to DFA Zito or maybe even trade him at some point (with a lot of cash), should a better option come along, whether in trade or from the farm system (Surkamp hopefully healthy and ready, Heston might be ready, Kickham too; maybe Stratton climbs fast?) and he's pulling the complaining vet routine a la Rowand in his last season with us.
Or maybe he's the solid citizen he's always been with us up to now, and that comment was merely a misunderstanding or something. In that case, I totally can see his option being picked up, $11M is not that much to pay for a decent innings eater who can throw a good start more times than not.