Derek Fisher is one of those players who scouts a lot better than his performance on the field would make you think. He is coming into his college junior season at Virginia. He's big, 6'3", 201 lbs., athletic and bats left, throws right. He was rated as a top 10 draft prospect out of HS, so was a real coup for Virginia.
Here are his stat lines for his first two college seasons:
2012 .288/.375/.507, 8 3B, 7 HR, 4 SB.
2013 .293/.405/.483, 7 HR, 8 SB.
He hit .333 with 6 doubles and 13 SB in 120 AB in he Cape Cod League where he also had 25 BB's against just 19 K's. He'll probably be a corner OF in the pros.
BLF has Fisher ranked #18 in the draft. Matt Garrioch of Minor League Ball has him at #15. BA has him at #16 with the comment "Powerful lefthanded swing makes him a potential first rounder, though his defense and all-around tools are more in question."
I see a little too much Jarrett Parker in him to be comfortable with drafting him in the first round, although the Giants scout the Cape Cod League heavily and like their hitters with reversed K/BB's.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Yanks Sign Ellsbury; Fowler Traded to 'Stros; Morneau to Rockies
The Hot Stove got stoked to a white heat this afternoon as the Yankees landed Jacoby Ellsbury for a price of 7 years/$153 M with an 8'th year option for $!6 M more. It will be interesting to see how this works out for Ellsbury and the Yanks. I think it's pretty obvious that LH batters can't wait to play in Yankee Stadium, all that is except apparently Robinson Cano! Once upon a time, Ellsbury hit 33 HR's in a season. Since then his power has regressed dramatically. That short porch should be a nice cure for that. On the other hand, LH batters have been known to become pull happy in Yankee Stadium to their detriment. It's also an awfully long contract for a guy who has averaged 100 games played over the last 4 seasons, but you knew he was going to get it from somebody. Yanks apparently think they still have room to sign Robby Cano, but the Nationals seem to be making a run at him.
The Rockies traded Dexter Fowler to the Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and RHP Jordan Lyles. Fowler has had his ups and downs with some ugly home-road splits playing out of Coors Field. Barnes is an excellent fielding OF but with little stick. Lyles has never really broken through as a pitcher and you have to think he's going to have a rough time of it moving to Coors. Minute Maid Park is not a bad hitters park, but it favors pull hitters on either side of the ball with CF being a graveyard for drives that would be dingers in most other parks. Fowler strikes me as a guy who hits 'em more gap-to-gap. Still, the 'Stros didn't give up much and Fowler seems like a reasonable risk. I like his potential ceiling despite the squirrelly numbers.
The Rockies also signed Justin Morneau to play 1B. Morneau appeared to be on the verge of bccoming an elite hitter a few years ago, but has lost a lot of time to injuries including a stress fracture in his spine and a concussion. He may experience an offensive renaissance moving to Coors Field.
In a bit of a surprise, Salty signed a 3 year/$21 M contract with the Miami Marlins. Salty is a switch-hitter who basically can't hit LH pitching. No problem. Since LHP's are only about 25% of starters, you just use Salty as the lefthanded hitting partner in a straight platoon and you get close to the number of games you expect your starter to catch. Nice deal for the Marlins, but what can they put with him to become competitive?
Lastly, our old whipping boy, AJ Pierzynski, signed to replace Salty in Boston for 1 year/$8.25 M. I'm of the opinion that almost any 1 year deal is a good one for the team, so nice deal for the BoSox. AJ is AJ, what can I say?
Chris Haft seems to think the Giants priority at the Winter Meetings is to find a hitter to play LF with a trade being the most likely possibility. 3 names mentioned in the article are Chris Denorfia, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Willingham. I'll put my bets on Ruggiano who has been my #1 choice all offseason.
A van carrying 11 Giants prospects to a workout in Arizona was involved in a motor vehicle accident(MVA). 5 players were treated at a local hospital and released without any apparent serious injuries. The injured players included LHP Bryce Bandilla, LHP Adalberto Mejia, RHP Dan Slania, RHP Jeff Soptic and SS Kelby Tomlinson. Glad to hear everybody is safe and sound.
The Rockies traded Dexter Fowler to the Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and RHP Jordan Lyles. Fowler has had his ups and downs with some ugly home-road splits playing out of Coors Field. Barnes is an excellent fielding OF but with little stick. Lyles has never really broken through as a pitcher and you have to think he's going to have a rough time of it moving to Coors. Minute Maid Park is not a bad hitters park, but it favors pull hitters on either side of the ball with CF being a graveyard for drives that would be dingers in most other parks. Fowler strikes me as a guy who hits 'em more gap-to-gap. Still, the 'Stros didn't give up much and Fowler seems like a reasonable risk. I like his potential ceiling despite the squirrelly numbers.
The Rockies also signed Justin Morneau to play 1B. Morneau appeared to be on the verge of bccoming an elite hitter a few years ago, but has lost a lot of time to injuries including a stress fracture in his spine and a concussion. He may experience an offensive renaissance moving to Coors Field.
In a bit of a surprise, Salty signed a 3 year/$21 M contract with the Miami Marlins. Salty is a switch-hitter who basically can't hit LH pitching. No problem. Since LHP's are only about 25% of starters, you just use Salty as the lefthanded hitting partner in a straight platoon and you get close to the number of games you expect your starter to catch. Nice deal for the Marlins, but what can they put with him to become competitive?
Lastly, our old whipping boy, AJ Pierzynski, signed to replace Salty in Boston for 1 year/$8.25 M. I'm of the opinion that almost any 1 year deal is a good one for the team, so nice deal for the BoSox. AJ is AJ, what can I say?
Chris Haft seems to think the Giants priority at the Winter Meetings is to find a hitter to play LF with a trade being the most likely possibility. 3 names mentioned in the article are Chris Denorfia, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Willingham. I'll put my bets on Ruggiano who has been my #1 choice all offseason.
A van carrying 11 Giants prospects to a workout in Arizona was involved in a motor vehicle accident(MVA). 5 players were treated at a local hospital and released without any apparent serious injuries. The injured players included LHP Bryce Bandilla, LHP Adalberto Mejia, RHP Dan Slania, RHP Jeff Soptic and SS Kelby Tomlinson. Glad to hear everybody is safe and sound.
Hot Stove Update: 3-Way Trade; Beane Keeps Trading; Nathan to the Tigers
The Hot Stove kept crackling away today as the Reds, D'Backs and Rays completed a confusing 3-way trade. The D'Backs shipped overpaid reliever Heath Bell to the Rays and sent LHP prospect David Holmberg to the Reds. The Rays got Bell and Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan while sending unheard of minor league RHP Justin Choate and a PTBNL to the D'Backs. This one is a bit of a head scratcher from the D'Backs point of view. It appears that they were so desperate to unload Bell and his $5.5 M salary(I thought it was more than that) they not only gave him away, they were willing to give up a pretty good pitching prospect to make it happen. The Reds trade away a catcher they probably don't need anymore and got a nice pitching prospect. The Rays apparently hope Bell can help their bullpen and were willing to take on his salary to get an inexpensive catcher as part of the deal. Everybody seems to think this is a prelude to more deals from the D'Backs.
The Tigers signed Joe Nathan for 2 years $20 M. On the heels of the Doug Fister trade, this looks like a disastrous series of decisions. Nathan deepens their bulpen but is not a clear upgrade on anybody they already had
Now back to Trader Billy. He started the day by trading OF prospect Michael Choice to the Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and RHP Josh Lindblom. The Rangers also received 2B Chris Bostick in the deal. Gentry has been strictly a platoon player(plays only against LHP's) with Texas but sports an outstanding OBP, is an accomplished basestealer and plays superior defense in CF. Choice is a promising hitting prospect who plays only corner OF and whose power seemed to go a bit backwards in the last 2 seasons. From this trade, it appears the A's are all in to make a run in 2014 and are dedicated to the platoon model. Choice is a guy who could make them regret the trade in future years.
Billy wasn't done as he further fortified his bullpen by acquiring Luke Gregerson from the Padres for Seth Smith. I think this is a solid move by Beane, especially if he is going for it in 2014, which he clearly is. Can't say I ever been all that impressed by Seth Smith and I'll be happy to not have to watch Gregerson and his maddening slider as often next year.
Looks like there may be more Hot Stove news coming later in the day, so stay tuned!
The Tigers signed Joe Nathan for 2 years $20 M. On the heels of the Doug Fister trade, this looks like a disastrous series of decisions. Nathan deepens their bulpen but is not a clear upgrade on anybody they already had
Now back to Trader Billy. He started the day by trading OF prospect Michael Choice to the Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and RHP Josh Lindblom. The Rangers also received 2B Chris Bostick in the deal. Gentry has been strictly a platoon player(plays only against LHP's) with Texas but sports an outstanding OBP, is an accomplished basestealer and plays superior defense in CF. Choice is a promising hitting prospect who plays only corner OF and whose power seemed to go a bit backwards in the last 2 seasons. From this trade, it appears the A's are all in to make a run in 2014 and are dedicated to the platoon model. Choice is a guy who could make them regret the trade in future years.
Billy wasn't done as he further fortified his bullpen by acquiring Luke Gregerson from the Padres for Seth Smith. I think this is a solid move by Beane, especially if he is going for it in 2014, which he clearly is. Can't say I ever been all that impressed by Seth Smith and I'll be happy to not have to watch Gregerson and his maddening slider as often next year.
Looks like there may be more Hot Stove news coming later in the day, so stay tuned!
Monday, December 2, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Nationals Steal Doug Fister; Billy Beane Buys High on Scott Kazmir and Jim Johnson
The Hot Stove, which has been crackling away for over a week now, heated up even more today with a flurry of trades and signings. The day got started with a big trade in which the Nationals acquired dependable starter for a reserve IF and 2 pitching prospects. Fister does not dazzle people with a lot of strikeouts but he keeps his walks way down and shows a strong groundball tendency. This has resulted in an accumulation of 15.1 fWAR over the last 4 seasons which is worth over 3 times his projected arbitration salary of just under $7 M. He has 2 arbitration years left including 2014.
The Nationals did not give up nothing. In addition to utility IF Steve Lombardozzi, they sent Ian Krol, a lefty specialist and Robbie Ray, a AA pitching prospect to the Tigers. Krol had a line of 2-1, 3.95, 27.1 IP, 8 BB, 22 K. His numbers against LH batters were significantly better. The Tigers certainly could have used him in the
ALCS against David Ortiz! Now who's overpaying for lefty specialists?
Robbie Ray also throws LH. He pitched at 2 levels last year at age 21: High A 6-3, 3.11, 84 IP, 41 BB, 100 K. AA 5-2, 3.72, 58 IP, 21 BB, 60 K's.
Fister certainly is a guy who would fit nicely into the Giants rotation whose projected arbitration salary, at least for 2014 is not a whole lot higher than what Vogey is guaranteed. The package the Nationals gave up was roughly the equivalent of the Giants giving up Jake Dunning and Edwin Escobar. The only problem is I think it is clear that Detroit was desperate to add a lefty specialist reliever after getting torched by David Ortiz in the ALCS and would not have wanted to pay Mijares projected arbitration salary of $2.1 M, so I'm not sure the Giants would have been able to give Detroit what they wanted.
Meanwhile, Billy Beane gave Scott Kazmir a contract for 2 years/$22 M. Kazmir is coming off a season with a line of 10-9, 4.04, 158 IP, 47 BB, 162 K. That's not a bad line, but it's the first decent one he's has since 2008. While it's not a terrible contract from the A's standpoint, it is putting some faith in a guy whose career has been marked by inconsistency and injury.
Billy wasn't done dealing and later acquired Closer Jim Johnson from the Orioles for Jemile Weeks and a PTBNL. Billy basically did not give up anything in Weeks, but Johnson is a poster boy for the fungibility of closers racking up oodles of Saves with pedestrian peripheral numbers. His MLBTR projected arbitration salary is $10 M.
Of course Dave Cameron and the Fangraphs crowd have found some way to spin these deals as Moneyball undervalued asset stuff, but these seem like very un-Moneyball-like moves to me.
The Nationals did not give up nothing. In addition to utility IF Steve Lombardozzi, they sent Ian Krol, a lefty specialist and Robbie Ray, a AA pitching prospect to the Tigers. Krol had a line of 2-1, 3.95, 27.1 IP, 8 BB, 22 K. His numbers against LH batters were significantly better. The Tigers certainly could have used him in the
ALCS against David Ortiz! Now who's overpaying for lefty specialists?
Robbie Ray also throws LH. He pitched at 2 levels last year at age 21: High A 6-3, 3.11, 84 IP, 41 BB, 100 K. AA 5-2, 3.72, 58 IP, 21 BB, 60 K's.
Fister certainly is a guy who would fit nicely into the Giants rotation whose projected arbitration salary, at least for 2014 is not a whole lot higher than what Vogey is guaranteed. The package the Nationals gave up was roughly the equivalent of the Giants giving up Jake Dunning and Edwin Escobar. The only problem is I think it is clear that Detroit was desperate to add a lefty specialist reliever after getting torched by David Ortiz in the ALCS and would not have wanted to pay Mijares projected arbitration salary of $2.1 M, so I'm not sure the Giants would have been able to give Detroit what they wanted.
Meanwhile, Billy Beane gave Scott Kazmir a contract for 2 years/$22 M. Kazmir is coming off a season with a line of 10-9, 4.04, 158 IP, 47 BB, 162 K. That's not a bad line, but it's the first decent one he's has since 2008. While it's not a terrible contract from the A's standpoint, it is putting some faith in a guy whose career has been marked by inconsistency and injury.
Billy wasn't done dealing and later acquired Closer Jim Johnson from the Orioles for Jemile Weeks and a PTBNL. Billy basically did not give up anything in Weeks, but Johnson is a poster boy for the fungibility of closers racking up oodles of Saves with pedestrian peripheral numbers. His MLBTR projected arbitration salary is $10 M.
Of course Dave Cameron and the Fangraphs crowd have found some way to spin these deals as Moneyball undervalued asset stuff, but these seem like very un-Moneyball-like moves to me.
Down on the Farm: Community Ranking Question
Here's a not so hypothetical ranking question I would like some input from the community on. Say you have a highly ranked prospect, and that prospect suffers a severe injury that he may recover completely from, but if he doesn't, it could be the end of his career. Think Buster Posey having his injury while he was still a prospect or Gustavo Cabrera's current situation. How would you handle that in ranking said prospect? I'll make it multiple choice:
1. Assume they will fully recover and rank them as if the injury did not occur.
2. Assume the worst until proven otherwise and not rank them at all.
3. Split the difference. Rank them, but rank them lower knowing that the outcome is more likely to be either #1 or #2 rather than somewhere in between.
What say you?
1. Assume they will fully recover and rank them as if the injury did not occur.
2. Assume the worst until proven otherwise and not rank them at all.
3. Split the difference. Rank them, but rank them lower knowing that the outcome is more likely to be either #1 or #2 rather than somewhere in between.
What say you?
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Down on the Farm: BA's Top 10 Giants Prospects
Got my BA in the mail yesterday. It has the top 10 prospects from the NL West teams. Here's what they have for the Giants:
1. Kyle Crick, RHP. BD 11/30/1992. 6'4", 225 lbs. Drafted 2011 Supplemental First Round(HS).
High A: 3-1, 1.57, 69 IP, 39 BB, 95 K.
2. Edwin Escobar, LHP. BD 4/22/1992. 6'1", 195 lbs. Obained in trade with Texas Rangers for Ben Snyder in 2010. High A: 3-4, 2.89, 75 IP, 17 BB, 92 K's. AA: 5-4, 2.67, 54 IP, 13 BB, 54 K.
3. Chris Stratton, RHP. BD 8/22/1990. 6'3", 186 lbs. Drafted First Round 2012(College).
Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 47 BB, 123 K.
4. Adalberto Mejia, LHP. BD 6/20/1993. 6'3", 205 lbs. Signed Dominican Republic 2011 $350 K.
High A: 7-4, 3.31, 87 IP, 23 BB, 89 K.
5. Mac Williamson, OF. BD 7/15/1990. 6'4", 245 lbs. Drafted 2012 3'rd round(College).
High A: .292/.375/.504, 25 HR, 10 SB.
6. Christian Arroyo, SS. BD 5/30/1995. 6'1", 180 lbs. Drafted 2013 First Round(HS).
Rookie AZL .326/.388/.511, 2 HR, 3 SB in 184 AB.
7. Heath Hembree, RHP. BD 1/13/1989. 6'4", 205 lbs. Drafted 2010, 5'th Round(College).
AAA 1-4, 4.07, 55 IP, 16 BB, 63 K, 31 Saves. MLB 0-0, 0.00, 8 IP, 2 BB, 12 K.
8. Ty Blach, LHP. BD 10/20/1990. 6'2", 200 lbs. Drafted 2012, 5'th Round(College).
High A 12-4, 2.90, 130 IP, 18 BB, 117 K.
9. Joe Panik, 2B. BD 10/30/1990. 6'1", 195 lbs. Drafted 2011 First Round(College).
AA .257/.333/.347, 4 HR, 10 SB, 58 BB, 68 K.
10. Clayton Blackburn, RHP. BD 1/6/1993. 6'3", 220 lbs. Drafted 2011, 16'th Round(HS).
High A 7-5, 3.65, 133 IP, 35 BB, 138 K.
Comment: I can't find too much to argue about with this list. There are two additional prospects who I think deserve consideration for top 10 placement: OF Gustavo Cabrera and RHP Keury Mella:
Cabrera is a true 5 tool prospect who convinced me his bat will play with his second half performance in the DSL. Unfortunately, his entire future career is currently in the balance due to a severe laceration to his right wrist suffered in an apparent freak home accident. I'm not sure how you rank a prospect like that which will be the subject of a future post. Prior to the accident, I was actually toying with the thought of ranking him #2 overall!
Keury Mella had a nice AZL campaign in 2013 and lit up the fall instructional league with a 96 MPH fastball and an imposing demeaner on the mound. If you have not seen the videos, look them up! I think Cove Chatter still has links to them. Cove Chatter is linked to the left. It is my belief that Mella may well be the #2 pitching prospect in the system right now. As you can see, that is saying a lot!
1. Kyle Crick, RHP. BD 11/30/1992. 6'4", 225 lbs. Drafted 2011 Supplemental First Round(HS).
High A: 3-1, 1.57, 69 IP, 39 BB, 95 K.
2. Edwin Escobar, LHP. BD 4/22/1992. 6'1", 195 lbs. Obained in trade with Texas Rangers for Ben Snyder in 2010. High A: 3-4, 2.89, 75 IP, 17 BB, 92 K's. AA: 5-4, 2.67, 54 IP, 13 BB, 54 K.
3. Chris Stratton, RHP. BD 8/22/1990. 6'3", 186 lbs. Drafted First Round 2012(College).
Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 47 BB, 123 K.
4. Adalberto Mejia, LHP. BD 6/20/1993. 6'3", 205 lbs. Signed Dominican Republic 2011 $350 K.
High A: 7-4, 3.31, 87 IP, 23 BB, 89 K.
5. Mac Williamson, OF. BD 7/15/1990. 6'4", 245 lbs. Drafted 2012 3'rd round(College).
High A: .292/.375/.504, 25 HR, 10 SB.
6. Christian Arroyo, SS. BD 5/30/1995. 6'1", 180 lbs. Drafted 2013 First Round(HS).
Rookie AZL .326/.388/.511, 2 HR, 3 SB in 184 AB.
7. Heath Hembree, RHP. BD 1/13/1989. 6'4", 205 lbs. Drafted 2010, 5'th Round(College).
AAA 1-4, 4.07, 55 IP, 16 BB, 63 K, 31 Saves. MLB 0-0, 0.00, 8 IP, 2 BB, 12 K.
8. Ty Blach, LHP. BD 10/20/1990. 6'2", 200 lbs. Drafted 2012, 5'th Round(College).
High A 12-4, 2.90, 130 IP, 18 BB, 117 K.
9. Joe Panik, 2B. BD 10/30/1990. 6'1", 195 lbs. Drafted 2011 First Round(College).
AA .257/.333/.347, 4 HR, 10 SB, 58 BB, 68 K.
10. Clayton Blackburn, RHP. BD 1/6/1993. 6'3", 220 lbs. Drafted 2011, 16'th Round(HS).
High A 7-5, 3.65, 133 IP, 35 BB, 138 K.
Comment: I can't find too much to argue about with this list. There are two additional prospects who I think deserve consideration for top 10 placement: OF Gustavo Cabrera and RHP Keury Mella:
Cabrera is a true 5 tool prospect who convinced me his bat will play with his second half performance in the DSL. Unfortunately, his entire future career is currently in the balance due to a severe laceration to his right wrist suffered in an apparent freak home accident. I'm not sure how you rank a prospect like that which will be the subject of a future post. Prior to the accident, I was actually toying with the thought of ranking him #2 overall!
Keury Mella had a nice AZL campaign in 2013 and lit up the fall instructional league with a 96 MPH fastball and an imposing demeaner on the mound. If you have not seen the videos, look them up! I think Cove Chatter still has links to them. Cove Chatter is linked to the left. It is my belief that Mella may well be the #2 pitching prospect in the system right now. As you can see, that is saying a lot!
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Phil Hughes to the Twins
RHP Phil Hughes has agreed to terms with the Minnesota Twins for a reported 3 years/$24 M according to MBLTR.
Well, I think we just found out why Sabes folded his cards and signed Ryan Vogelsong to a 1 year deal. I really envisioned Hughes signing a deal similar to Dan Haren and Josh Johnson, a 1 year deal with a team that plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium which would allow him to rebuild his value and sign a bigger deal next year. Seems like the Twins and he had other ideas. I've always liked Phil Hughes and I think he has a lot of upside, but there is serious risk there too. Given the Giants overall situation, I much prefer a 1 year deal for Vogey to a multiyear deal for Phil Hughes.
The Twins have now added Ricky Nolasco and Hughes. Given the pathetic state of the Twins pitching last year, Nolasco and Hughes cannot be worse and give them some serious upside, especially pitching in that stadium.
Well, I think we just found out why Sabes folded his cards and signed Ryan Vogelsong to a 1 year deal. I really envisioned Hughes signing a deal similar to Dan Haren and Josh Johnson, a 1 year deal with a team that plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium which would allow him to rebuild his value and sign a bigger deal next year. Seems like the Twins and he had other ideas. I've always liked Phil Hughes and I think he has a lot of upside, but there is serious risk there too. Given the Giants overall situation, I much prefer a 1 year deal for Vogey to a multiyear deal for Phil Hughes.
The Twins have now added Ricky Nolasco and Hughes. Given the pathetic state of the Twins pitching last year, Nolasco and Hughes cannot be worse and give them some serious upside, especially pitching in that stadium.
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