Today, Giants fans got a small taste of what Robert Pattinson must have felt like when he found out Kristen Stewart was doing another dude in the back of parked cars. Melky Cabrera came to San Francisco with a long history of being reviled by fans in other cities and scoffed at by many baseball oriented websites. He may have been a bit inscrutible to the media, but he played the game hard, enthusiastically and surprisingly well with just the right touch of flair. Giants fans fell in love with him and gave him unconditional love and support. They worked feverishly to get him voted into the All-Star Game starting lineup. They brought signs saying "got Melk?" and came to games dressed as Melkmen. Today, that world, that love affair all came crashing down. Melky had been off secretly cheating and now the incriminating pictures were hitting the internet.
Personally I think the steroids and PED's have been one of the most overblown stories in the history of baseball. Incidents like this always bring out the know-it-alls who confidently talk about ridiculous stuff like hat sizes, production spikes, and other things they think they know. In reality, most of the what passes for facts about steroids and PED's belongs more in the realm of mythology and folklore than investigative journalism, but that is beside the point. The fact is that the players signed a contract that prohibits the use of these agents. When players choose to use them, they are violating that contract. End of story!
Melky made a choice that he knew carried the possibility of betraying the hope and trust his team, teammates and fans had placed in him. Today, he let all those people down. That it happened in the middle of the tightest pennant race against the Giants most hated rivals just rubbed salt and pepper in the wound.
There have been enough of these incidents with enough different types of players to raise suspicion that PED use is still much more widespread than is apparent. I do not believe that these guys are stupid. In fact, Melky seems like a highly intelligent person and ballplayer. These guys are taking calculated risks. I don't know what percentage of MLB players get tested each day/week/month/season or if it is truly random. It's obviously a small enough number that guys are thinking they will take their chances on not getting caught.
It may be harder to replace Melky psychologically than statistically. The first guy in line for replacement duty, Gregor Blanco has earned 1.9 WAR in 350 PA. If he plays every inning of every game, like Melky, the rest of the way, he should earn another 1.1 WAR. Melky has earned 4.5 WAR in almost exactly 3/4 of a season so if he maintained his previous pace, he would earn another 1.5 WAR or just 0.4 more than Gregor Blanco. Of course, a lot of Blanco's WAR value is on defense whereas Melky's was mostly on offense, so the hit on run production might be greater.
There are other ways to make up for Melky's loss. Pence has gotten settled in. Brandon Belt is belting 'em. Crawford is playing better. Pablo is back. It's certainly not the end of the world here, but with Melky, the Giants lineup was looking formidible down the stretch. Now, it's just looking OK. The Giants pitchers will have to step up one more time.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
This was shocking to say the least, but whats done is done, so lets move on. What do you think The giants will do now? Reports say they will call up a couple players from the minors.
ReplyDeleteI think Blanco will be the first option and Sabes will be scouring the waiver wires. Remember, the Giants did not pick up Cody Ross until late in 2010 and didn't really use him until the playoffs started.
Deleteaccording to conte, the test that the mlb is using and the standards regarding percentage of synth testosterone that can be found, means only those that make mistakes get caught
ReplyDeleteaccording to conte, mlb allows a 4-1 ratio...which is why braun tested clean in his other tests...hes not really clean...
anyway, its a bummer cuz he is really fun to watch...now i guess i have to root for doofus belt
also bummed that he didnt share any with timmy...that kid has gotten scrawny
and remember, melki is a christian, and nowhere in the good book does it say...thou shalt not do roids...amen
Yeah, saw Conte talking about that.
DeleteIn the Olympics they were calling PED tests "IQ Tests" because they only catch those athletes dumb enough to use them within the very clear bounderies of testing.
Assuming Conte wasn't being overly simplistic (use a cream or patch and testosterone will be out of your system in 6 hours) then yeah, this type of test would be exceptionally easy to defeat.
I've always been extremely jaded about any type true and sincere effort by MLB to curb PED use. They do what they are forced to do. Reluctantly. And by being exceptionally incompetent in this, they are able limit the damage, and offer up only a handful of sacrificial lambs. These players, through their laziness or ignorance, are caught.
Although it's unlikely Melky would have performed at this level without "help", it's hard to imagine how it feels to have $100,000,000 slip through your hands. The off-season should be an interesting one for Melky.
That makes a lot of sense. Based on nothing more than a gut feeling about the Braun and Melky situations, I believe PED's are still in widespread use and players are takng calculated risks they won't get caught.
Deletehttp://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8276418
Deleteconte
what he says makes sense
Good post Drb..
ReplyDeleteI don't remember being more disappointed in a Giants player tonight, because Melky is a talented player, popular with fans, and had a big part in the team's success.. We'll see what this team is made of the next few games. Championship clubs overcome adversity.
There is always the waiver wire to add more players or calling up players from the minor leagues.. The only positive is the Bums can't block a player now to aviod the Giants claiming him.
LG
My daughter posted something about it on her facebook page and she got a comment from someone who said their son cried when he heard the news because Melky was his favorite player. Now THAT is sad!
DeleteNow Giants will have to sign Josh Hamilton this offseason.
ReplyDeleteThere is not better option than him.
They need a corner outfielder who will replace Melky.
They have about $50~60M payroll flexibilty after this season.
It is time to pay the best LF maybe.
God no not Josh Hamilton please let someone else overpay him
DeleteSigning Josh Hamilton to a huge long term contract is a terrible idea.
DeleteOf course, like everyone, I'm looking around for potential vets we could pick up who'd clear waivers. Someone somewhere thought Colby Rasmus, which, I don't think is realistic for a lot of reasons. However, while looking at the Blue Jays I came across our old buddy Rajai Davis.
ReplyDeleteI really liked Rajai in the brief time he was here. And he got cut in a OF numbers crunch (although his stats were awful when that happened).
Obviously the guy doesn't give power. But, I'm not sure we can get power at this point. So, it goes the other way. Speed. Defense. And a decent bat. Pinch runner. Defensive replacement late. Insurance against Blanco (or Pagan) tanking. (If Pence tanks, we're toast.)
I think the Jays would be open to this for a B-level prospect. They must be on the fence about exercising his $3 million option for '13.
I'd like to at least beef up the bench beyond just getting rid of Burriss.
It doesn't sound sexy, I know. But how sexy did Darren Ford turn out to be in Sept. '10?
DeleteI'd take Rajai back.
DeleteB-level prospects, 4th OF crunches... sounds like the Gints of the late 2000s for sure. I think that is the hardest thing for me to take - we actually had a front line OF in Melky, and now that is blown up.
DeleteShort term hurts more than long term. Long term was a very hard call, and I still am not convinced on the #s that Melky was looking at would be a good use of the Gints resources. Who knows how long he would remain a front line OF, that is the rub. Still, I was really starting to like the guy.
Pagan needs to step up. He, like Pence, is a streaky guy. I always liked Rajai Davis, but he is a mix and match OF. I think they might turn their eyes from the waiver wire to... Richmond VA.
One more thing about Melky. Much was made in the offseason about his sub 300 career babip versus the 332 he put up in KC. After getting as high as 390 this year, he ends with a 379 (per Fangraphs, B/R is being hinky right now). While I believed 30 points or 10% wasn't a huge stretch, I do believe the 390 or even 379 is not sustainable, the best babips are around 350 (Ichiro, Jeter to name a couple). So we may be stuck looking at a what if that might have been crashing to earth anyways. Sure, that could just be a weak attempt at rationalizing, but I do appreciate DrB's looking at Melky and Blanco's WAR #s. Obviously this will hurt a bunch, but I remain convinced that the lack of power attached to the great BA and OBP mean that this won't hurt nearly as much as losing Posey. In the Gints lineup, it will have an effect though. Hopefully Blanco and Pagan can tap their toes and get back to May and early June form.
ReplyDeleteShank,
DeleteIt's the tapping the toes part that's hard...
Crying over spilled Melk? Yeah, me too. Just like watching Bonds, you can't deny Melky had talent hitting, base running and defense.
What bites me is that for one day, ONE F@#$%ING DAY, we had our offense together - Pablo back, Pence hitting and Melky. Now it's gone, pffffffttt.
Timmy needs to start using something, stat.
Reports were that Pagan was really pissed over Melky. If I wasn't using I would be really pissed too.
What I don't want to hear. Melky saying, it was a mistake and asking for fans' forgiveness.
What is he supposed to say in a "public statement" then?
Delete