DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #20 Jose Cruz

Jose Cruz RHP.  DOB:  5/18/2000.  6'1", 178 lbs.  IFA 2017.

2022(A):  2-1, 2.06, 52.1 IP, 14.79 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 6 Saves.

 The Giants had long list of prospects who were Rule 5 Draft eligible.  They lost, what, 8 of them in the draft?  They protected Jose Cruz.  That tells you something right there.  He's taken his time working his way out of complex ball into a full season league, but that patience may finally be paying off.  Impressive in spring training he went to San Jose and dominated in a relief role averaging a little over an inning per appearance.  

On video, he looks taller than his listed 6'1" and had long limbs to boot.  Loose arm action generates 95-98 MPH on the FB.  His main secondary pitch is a devastating changeup that dives and fades from LH batters.  I could swear he also has a sharp slider but Fangraphs does not list it in their scouting report and I didn't see one on the only video I found on the Youtube.  

Now that he is safely on the 40-man roster, the Giants can use 3 option years to polish him up.  It also gives him a leg up on a potential midseason call up to Oracle Park.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #21 Eric Silva

 Eric Silva RHP.  DOB:  10/3/2002.  6'1", 185 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 4

2022(A):  3-7, 5.88, 85.2 IP, 10.40 K/9, 4.10 BB/9.

Much like Kyle Harrison the year before, the Giants gave Silva an overslot bonus to sign him away from a UCLA commit.  Silva's first full pro season did not go as spectacularly well as Harrison's but making 22 Starts and accumulating 85+ IP with a double digit K rate has it's encouraging elements.  Although he struggled with walks at times, he showed an ability to command 3 pitches.  When asked by David Laurilia of Fangraphs who the toughest pitcher he faced in the Cal League, Jordan Lawler of the D'Backs organization named Eric Silva and pointed to his command of 3 pitches.  Although his height of 6'1" limits his physical upside, to my eye Silva has room to fill out and get stronger.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #22 Adrian Sugastey

 Adrian Sugastey C.  DOB:  10/23/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 210 lbs.  IFA 2020- $525 K.

2022(ACL):  .231/.323/.346, 12.9 BB%, 16.1 K%, 31 PA.

2022(A):  .240/.329/.333, 5 HR, 8.8 BB%, 15.6 K%, 340 PA.

2022(AFL):  .385/.429/.852, 2 BB, 1 K, 28 PA.

Young catching prospect with a big arm and a projectable bat.  Put up solid, if unspectacular numbers for at Low A SJ last season, but development time is still on his side.  Performed well in a SSS against higher level competition in the Arizona Fall League.  On video, he has a no-frills, short swing keeping his front elbow tucked which bodes well for the future at higher levels.  Could start 2023 repeating at SJ and still be at an age-appropriate level but his AFL performance suggests he might handle A+ ball just fine.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Yohandy Morales

 Yohandy Morales 3B.  DOB:  10/9/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 209 lbs. 

2022(College- Miami(FL):  .329/.411/.650, 18 HR, 6 SB, 34 BB, 60 K, 280 PA.

I remember Morales from when he was a HS prospect for the 2020 draft.  He had a strong commitment to Miami(FL) and was not selected.  He had a terrific long, lean body with lots of room to fill out his frame.  The concern was a lot of extraneous motion in his load and swing which seemed to lead to contact issues.  Since then, he's a bit more filled out and has taken out a lot of the annoying bat waggles, but still has a long swing with full arm extension which may make him vulnerable to inside heat.  Dad played for the Cuban national team and for several MLB organizations.  Extremely high ceiling but a lot of risk in the hit tool.

DrB's Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B(College)

8.  Aiden Miller 3B(HS)

9.  Hursten Waldrep RHP(College)

10.  Rhett Lowder RHP(College)

11.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

12.  Brayden Taylor 3B(College)

13.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)

14.  Yohandy Morales 3B(College)

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #23 Will Bednar

 Will Bednar RHP.  DOB:  6/13/2000.  6'2", 230 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 1(#14 overall).

2022(A):  1-3, 4.19, 43 IP, 10.67 K/9, 4.60 BB/9.  

2022(AFL):  0.0. 16.20, 3.1 IP, 3 K, 2 BB.  

It would be hard to to overstate how disappointing Bednar's first full pro season was.  I sensed something wasn't right when he received an extremely conservative assignment to Low A ball.  Generally high draft picks from major college conferences go to high A for their first full pro season and a few even start out at AA.  The numbers themselves are disappointing, particularly the walk rate, Although the K rate is encouraging and he did have his moments.  

I saw Bednar pitch in person in May in San Bernardino.  He took a no-hitter into the 5'th inning but struggled to keep his FB in the low 90's and his command was inconsistent.  After 12 similar starts with mixed results, he went out with an injury and did not come back until the fall league where he got shelled in 2 appearances.  

I ranked him this high purely due to not wanting to write off a guy with his draft pedigree just yet.  Hopefully he and the Giants pitching gurus will figure out what went wrong and he's come back strong in 2023 but the track record for player with this kind of start to their pro career is not encouraging.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #24 Blake Sabol

 Blake Sabol C/OF.  DOB:  1/7/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 7(Pirates).

2022(AA):  .281/.347/.486, 14 HR, 9 SB, 9.2 BB%, 26.0 K%, 412 PA.

2022(AAA):  .296/.426/543, 5 HR, SB, 16.8 BB%, 21.8 K%, 101 PA.

It's always a challenge to know where to rank Rule 5 Draftees in the Top 50 Prospects list or whether to rank them at all.  On one hand they are on the major league roster and getting as clean a shot at being on it on Opening Day as anyone will get.  On the other hand a large majority aren't even in the organization by Opening Day let alone by the end of the season.  Blake Sabol may have a better chance of sticking with the Giants than your average prospect.  Most importantly he has hit at the highest levels of the minor leagues.  Secondly, he has the most coveted of multi-positional skills, the ability to play catcher, although how well he plays the position seems to be a polarizing question.  My roster analysis tells me the only way Sabol makes the 26-man roster is if he is the sole back up catcher and/or the Giants carry 14 position players.  It does appear FZ intends to give him a chance do to just that.  

If you want to learn more about Blake Sabol I recommend an interview with David Laurilia published on Fangraphs 11/22/2022 when he was still in the Pirates organization.  Fun Fact:  Blake's mom is Samoan and football player Troy Polalmalu is his second cousin. 

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Rhett Lowder

Rhett Lowder RHP.   DOB:  3/8/2022.  6'2", 200 lbs.  

2022(College- Wake Forest):  11-3, 3.08, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.

 Solidly build RHP whose best pitch is a changeup which he plays off a two-seam FB that goes 92-97 MPH.  He also has a slider but per MLB Pipeline it grades out as average due to lack of consistency.  He's got fluid arm action out of a 3/4 delivery.  Moderate effort.  Projects as more of a #3 SP in the majors but has a high floor and should move fast in any organization that drafts him.  

DrB's Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B(College)

8.  Aiden Miller 3B(HS)

9.  Hursten Waldrep RHP(College)

10.  Rhett Lowder RHP(College)

11.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

12.  Brayden Taylor 3B(College)

13.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)

Hot Stove Update: Updated Giants Positional Analysis- Starting Pitcher

 2022:

Logan Webb RHP 32 GS, 15-9, 2.90, 192.1 IP, 7.63 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 2.38 GB/FB, 4.2 fWAR.

Carlos Rodon LHP 31 GS, 14-8, 2.88, 178 IP, 11.98 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 0.77 GB/FB, 6.2 fWAR.

Alex Cobb RHP 28 GS, 7-8, 3.73, 149.2 IP, 9.08 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.98 GB/FB, 3.7 fWAR.

Alex Wood LHP 26 GS, 8-12, 5.10, 130.2 IP, 9.02 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 1.55 GB/FB, 1.7 fWAR.

Jacob Junis RHP 17 GS, 5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 1.29 GB/FB, 1.2 fWAR.

Anthony DeSclafani RHP 5 GS, 0-2, 6.63, 19 IP, 8.05 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 0.0 fWAR.

Opener/Bullpen games 23 GS

Total: 17 fWAR

2023(ZIPS- 50'th percentile):

Logan Webb RHP, 3.7 WAR

Alex Cobb RHP, 2.3 WAR

Ross Stripling RHP, 1.9 WAR

Sean Manaea LHP, 1.0 WAR

Alex Wood LHP 1.9 WAR

Anthony DeSclafani RHP 1.9 WAR

Jake Junis RHP 1.1 WAR

Sean Hjelle RHP 1.1 WAR

Kyle Harrison LHP 1.6 WAR

Total:  16.5 WAR

Outcome:  Even.  Increased depth makes up for loss of ace.

Opportunity for Upside:  

Webb, Cobb and Stripling all put up higher fWAR than 2023 ZIPS projections.  In fact they put up a combined 3.1 more fWAR.  If you go by ZIPS 80'th percentile WAR, the starting staff combined WAR is 22.2.

Opener/Bullpen games performed well but strained the bullpen.  Improved depth should have added impact of improving bullpen performance.

I am betting the Giants pitching coaches can help Sean Manaea bounceback to much more than a 1.0 WAR SP.  Other projection systems have him around 2 WAR and he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2021.  From Fangraphs pitch values it looks like all they have to do it fix his changeup.

Although it is a generous projection for a rookie, Kyle Harrison LHP has a chance to put up a lot more than 1.6 WAR.

Speaking of upside and forcing issues, Keaton Winn RHP has a 50'th percentile ZIPS of 1.4 WAR.

Comments:

The flaw in the depth theory is there is not enough roster room if everybody is healthy, but Junis and  Wood can still contribute as 2-3 inning guys out of the bullpen while Sean Hjelle can be optioned.  If Kyle Harrison forces the issue early, we could see a trade of a veteran SP.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #25 Randy Rodriguez

 Randy Rodriguez RHP.  DOB:  9/5/1999.  6'0", 166 lbs.  

2022(A+):  2-3, 3.38, 50.2 IP, 12.61 K/9, 4.26 BB/9.

2022(AA):  0-1, 6.30, 10 IP, 17.10 K/9, 7.20 BB/9.

2022(AAA):  0-1, 10.50, 6 IP, 10.50 K/9, 16.50 BB/9.  

The Giants protected Randy Rodriguez from the Rule 5 Draft after the 2021 season even though he had never pitched above low A ball.  FZ said the Giants thought Randy could be developed as a SP.  He started 13 of 16 games with A+ Eugene with mixed results.  He moved back to the pen after promotions to AA and then AAA which went rather badly.  

Rodriguez is small for a pitcher but has a wiry, athletic looking frame that still has some room to fill out, but almost certainly carries more weight now than listed.  The arm is disproportionately long for his height, loose and quick.  His pitching motion looks similar to Camilo Doval's.  The FB is electric going 96-98 in several video clips with a slider and changeup to back it up.  One slider clearly had pure horizontal movement similar to Sergio Romo's.  Wow!  If he could pair up Romo's slider with a high-90's FB, that would be something!

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #26 Keaton Winn

Keaton Winn RHP.  DOB:  2/20/1998.  6'4", 238 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 5

2022(A):  1-1, 4.87, 40.2 IP, 12.17 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.63 GB/FB.

2022(A+):  3-2, 3.16, 37 IP, 11.19 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 2.63 GB/FB.

2022(AA):  2-3, 30.1 IP, 7.12 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 1.18 GB/FB.

Wow!  This is why I do this.  I figured there must be some reason the Giants protected Keaton Winn from the 2022 Rule 5 Draft by selecting him to the 40-man roster.  Little did I know, though until I researched this post.  That's what I get for still looking at ERA which for Winn last year was ho-hum.  When you add in the K/BB's and GB rates a completely different picture emerges.  Then you look up scouting reports and video.  Easy, easy 98 MPH heat with a fall-off-the-table splitter.  First comp that comes to mind is Kevin Gausman RHP.  Tall, big-boned, muscle mass, especially in the legs.  Proportional weight distribution, incredible leg strength that supports a drop-and-drive over-the-top delivery.  The fastball looks like a dart. 

So, where did Keaton Winn come from and where has he been?  Drafted out of JC ball in 2018.  Actually pitched really well but at low A ball mostly as a SP in 2019 with a 3.32 ERA.  Then came 2020 and COVID followed by missing all of 2021 to Tommy John surgery.  Last year he worked his way through 3 levels and was added to the 40-man roster in November.  I could see him blowing people away in spring training and forcing a trade to make room for him on the 26-man roster at some point in 2023.  Major sleeper in the system!  Oh, and run, don't walk, to look up his videos on the Youtube.

Scouting The 2023 Draft: Aidan Miller

Aidan Miller 3B.  DOB:  6/9/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6'2" 210 lbs.  

5-tool player who in the mold of Alex Bregman and Dylan Crews.  Perfect size for a hitter:  Big enough to have toonder in his bat, but short enough to control the strike zone and get around on high velocity.  Got a bit too big to cover SS but has the arm to play 3B and the bat should be more than enough to play there.  Aside from a late bat head waggle as he starts his swing, has solid mechanics at the plate.  Keeps front elbow bent through swing.  99 MPH exit velocity.  94 MPH throwing off mound.  93 MPH IF velocity.  Committed to Arkansas but Bro Jackson Miller signed for second round money in last year's draft so should be easily signable if drafted in first round.  I really like what I see in scouting reports and video on this kid.  Great target for Giants at #16 if college draftees push him down as the draft approaches.

DrB's Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B(College)

8.  Aidan Miller 3BI(HS)

9.  Hursten Waldrep RHP(College)

10.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

11.  Brayden Taylor 3B(College)

12.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)  

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #27 Brett Wisely

Brett Wisely 2B/UT.  DOB:  5/8/1999.  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 180 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 15(Rays).

2022(AA-Rays):  .274/.371/.460, 23 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 31 SB, 12.4 BB%, 20.8 K%, 500 PA.

2022(AAA-Rays):  .238/.261/.333, 4.3 BB%, 26.1 K%, 23 PA.

 Giants GM Farhan Zaidi signed minor league free agent Brett Wisely for $4.5 M.......wait, what?  Let's rewind that.  On July 21, 2022 FZ signed Trevor Rosenthal RHP for $4.5 M.  Rosenthal was rehabbing an injury and the plan seemed to be to add a veteran reliever with Closer experience down the stretch.  But Rosenthal kept getting reinjured.  On August 22, 2022, FZ flipped him to to Brewers for Tristan Peters OF.  Much like the Giants, the Rays had a 40-man roster crunch going into the Rule 5 Draft this last December.  So FZ flipped Peters to the Rays for Wisely and added him to the Giants 40-man roster.  He didn't add Nick Avila RHP and lost him in the draft so you could say it was a 3-team trade with Avila going to the White Sox. Yeah, so not sure how the $4.5 M got divvied up between the Giants and the BrewCrew but it seems the total price for acquiring Wisely was $4.5 M plus Nick Avila.  Got all that?  Good!

I think I am irrationally exuberant about Brett Wisely.  Per Fangraphs Eric Longerhagen says the Rays seem to like to stockpile undersized middle infielders with great hit tools and that's Brett Wisely to a T.  I am going to post a couple of comps here:

Tommy La Stella 2012 Age 23(A+):  .302/.386/.460, 22 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 13 SB, 10.1 BB%, 7.0 K%, 358 PA.   Wisely has more HR, way more SB's and at a higher level but with more K's. 

Isan Diaz 2019 Age 23(AAA):  .305/.395/.578, 26 HR, 5 SB, 11.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, 435 PA.  The tradeoff here is SB's for HR's with Wisely at a lower level, but we can probably blame COVID for that. Otherwise, they are essentially the same player at the same age.

At this point, Diaz is probably ahead of Wisely in the lefty-hitting middle infield line, but Diaz has had multiple shots to stick in the majors and has never been able to find traction.  The wild card in this is SB's which may be about to make a big comeback with bigger bases and new pitching rules which may favor players like Wisely bigly.  I, for one, would love that.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #28 Tristan Beck

 Tristan Beck RHP.  DOB:  6/24/1996.  6'4", 165 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 4(Braves)

2022(AA):  0-1, 2.57, 14.0 IP, 12.21 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 2.00 GB/FB.

2022(AAA):  5-8, 5.64, 97.1 IP, 8.97 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 1.29 GB/FB.

Tristan Beck has been on my radar for a long time.  He was a highly rated HS prospect out of Corona(CA) HS who played college ball at Stanford.  After a strong freshman season, he missed all of his sophomore campaign with a back injury, but came back strong as a junior in his draft year.  He struggled a bit out of the gate as a pro and FZ somehow managed to pry him away from the Braves and unload Mark Melancon and the remainder of his contract in the same trade.

I saw him pitch for A+ San Jose in San Bernardino after the trade.  He showed a low-mid 90's FB an 11-5 curveball and an occasional changeup.  I have long since forgotten his line from that game.  Joey Bart was his catcher that evening.

After missing 2020 to the pandemic, he played at 3 levels in 2021 with mixed results.  2022 was solid if unspectacular.  It was apparently good enough for FZ to add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.  

While he is tall and lanky, his frame has filled out to at least 30 lbs over his listed weight.  The Giants pitching is much deeper now than a year ago and Beck is not particularly high on the depth chart, but there is a non-zero chance we see him make his MLB debut in 2023.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #29 Matt Mikulski

 Matt Mikulski LHP.  DOB:  5/8/1999.  6'4", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 2

2022(A):  4-5, 6.95, 79 IP, 10.94 K/9, 3.53 BB/9, 0.90 GB/FB, 13.2 HR/FB.

I am not sure what to make of Mikulski.  That is an ugly ERA and his FIP/xFIP weren't much better at a very conservative level for a college starter, even one from a smaller program.  On the other hand, the K/BB is good enough to make us think there may be something to work with here.  I saw him pitch early in the season.  He's got long limbs on a thin frame.  Possibly some room to add muscle mass.  Mark Delucci wrote a rather scathing review for Baseball Prospectus from his June 15 start which agrees almost word for word with my observations:  Extreme short-armed delivery.  Almost shot puts the ball from behind his left ear.  Reported mid-90's FB nowhere to be seen.  Sat 88-92 MPH.  I wouldn't swear to it but I thought most of his FB's had cutter movement with a cutter, slider change mix.  Struggled with command and got hit hard when he came into the strike zone.  So yeah, the eye test wasn't great either.  We'll see what changes he was able to make through the offseason but another season like this will knock him off the list completely.  Aside from finding more velocity, he needs to either put more balls on the ground or lower his HR/FB ratio.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #30 Chris Wright

 Chris Wright LHP.  DOB:  10/14/1998.  6'1", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 12.

2022(AA):  4-2, 3.86, 56.0 IP, 12.21 K/9, 5.63 BB/9, 6 Saves.

AA Richmond is usually the most pitcher-friendly stop on the Giants organizational ladder.  Wright found it more difficult than A+ Eugene where he recorded a 0.97 ERA and 17 Saves in 2021.  It looks like he mainly struggled with control/command as the walk rate went up to alarming levels.  AAA Sacramento is generally a tougher spot for pitchers so he's going to have to up his game.

Video on the Youtube shows a mix of 95 MPH FB's and a diving slider out of a 3/4 delivery.  Some violence in the delivery which may explain the high walk rate.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #31 Brett Auerbach

 Brett Auerbach UT.  DOB:  8/27/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 185 lbs.  UDFA 2020

2022(AA):  .220/.311/.398, 17 HR, 12 SB, 11.3 BB%, 32 K%, 425 PA.  

Auerbach is a high energy athlete who is compact enough to play C but moves well enough to play pretty much any defensive position which is something of a "white whale" in Farhan Zaidi's world.  Auerbach impressed in major league spring training at multiple positions and received an aggressive placement in AA Richmond.  Positives were double digit HR's and SB's, and a strong walk rate.  Negatives were a high K rate and low BA which dragged down his other offensive numbers.  There is one video out there of him making an acrobatic catch on a foul pop from the catcher position.  FZ is obsessively stockpiling catchers who can play multiple positions so Auerbach's skill set is less unique to the organization but if he shows improvement on his 2022 numbers this season, he could have a MLB utility role in his future.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Brayden Taylor

 Brayden Taylor 3B.  DOB:  5/22/2022.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 175 lbs.  

2022(College- TCU):  .314/.454/.576, 14 HR, 10 SB, 55 BB, 40 K, 210 AB.  

A bit undersized for a corner bat.  Plus hit tool with some power.  Excellent control of the strike zone.  Sweet swing.  Limited ceiling but a relatively high floor.  

DrB's Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B(College)

8.  Hursten Waldrep RHP(College)

9.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

10.  Brayden Taylor 3B(College)

11.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)

Hot Stove Update: Updated Giants Position Analysis- Right Field

2022:

Mike Yastrzemski 104 G, .214/.305/.392, 17 HR, 2.2 UZR, 5.2 UZR/150.

Luis Gonzalez 92 G, .254/.323/.360, 4 HR, 10 SB, -2.6 UZR, -6.4 UZR/150, 0.3 fWAR.

LaMonte Wade Jr. 33 G, -1.3 UZR, -7.3 UZR/150.

Joc Pederson 18 G, -1.5 UZR, -18.9 UZR/150.

Austin Slater 14 G, 0.6 UZR, 15.7 UZR/150.

Heliot Ramos 8 G

Bryce Johnson 4 G

Darin Ruf 3 G

Austin Dean, Ka'ai Tom, Jason Vosler 1 G.

2023:

Mitch Haniger(Steamer Proj) 133 G, .251/.323, .442, 24 HR, 590 PA, -1.0 UZR(2022), -4.2 UZR/150, fWAR= 2.0.

Outcome:  Upgrade

Comment:  Haniger is a clear offensive upgrade and only a slight defensive downgrade from the combined effort of last season.  Of course that is predicated on him staying healthy all season, something he has struggled to do throughout his career, although most of his injuries were admittedly freakish in nature.  

Like other positions, there is not much of a safety net if Haniger goes down.  YtY could slide back over to RF but who would play CF?  Slater is a much better defender in RF than CF so perhaps he could move over and the Giants could promote or trade for a CF partner for YtY?  Perhaps Luis Gonzalez has had time to meditate on his mental mistakes of last season and will be more ready if needed again?  Otherwise it is the same suspects as we reviewed for CF.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #32 Tyler Fitzgerald

 Tyler Fitzgerald SS/2B.   DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 4

2022(AA):  .229/.310/.424, 21 HR, 20 SB, 7.1 BB%, 32.9 K%, 519 PA.

Tyler Fitzgerald is a 4.5 tool player.  Unfortunately the one half-tool is the most important:  Hit.  He's got power, run, catch and throw down.  He's got ideal size and athleticism with a frame that can still fill out. He's got to get that K rate down below 30% to access the power in MLB.  If either Brandon Crawford or Thairo Estrada lose time to injuries it's not out of the question we could see Fitz get his shot in 2023 although Will Wilson is probably ahead of him in that line.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #33 Nick Swiney

 Nick Swiney LHP.  DOB:  2/12/1999.  6'3", 185 lbs.  Drafted 2020 Round 2(C) #67 overall.

2022(A+):  4-6, 3.84, 89 IP, 10.62 K/9, 4.55 BB/9.

Swiney was a value pick to help fund Kyle Harrison's bonus but had a pretty good college career in his own right.  He's a bit behind the curve in development as there were not games in his draft year and he got a late start on his first full pro season in 2021.  K rate is solid but the walk rate is disappointing for a "polished" college pitcher.  Maybe the pitching friendly parks in AA Eastern League will give his pro career a boost.

A couple of videos on the Youtube show a lot of diving 11-5 curveballs and occasional high FB's and fading changeups.  That should be an effective mix if he can command them all.

Hot Stove Update: Updated Giants Position Analysis- Center Field

2022:

Austin Slater 106 G.  .264/.366/.408, 7 HR, 12 SB, 325 PA, -6.2 UZR, -15.4 UZR/150, 2.1 fWAR.

Mike Yastrzemski 93 G.  .214/.305/.392, 17 HR, 5 SB, 558 PA, 3.7 UZR, 8.4 UZR/150, 2.2 fWAR.

Lewis Brinson 15 G.  

Mauricio Dubon 14 G

Steven Duggar 12 G

Bryce Johnson 7 G

Luis Gonzalez 6 G

Stuart Fairchild 5 G

Thairo Estrada, Lamonte Wade Jr. 1 G

2023:  

Mike Yastzremski

Austin Slater

Outcome:  Slight upgrade due to YtY taking over at least strong side platoon role( but Mitch Hanigar has to stay healthy and take most games in RF).

Comment:  The dilemma here is YtY has awful splits against LHP's over the past two seasons while Slater had very poor defensive metrics in CF with bad eye test to back that up.  Slater's CF metrics in previous seasons were much better so perhaps he can hold down the short side of the platoon?  While neither YtY's or Slater's bats really play in the corners, they are both more than adequate for CF.  If they can both play league average D they should put up a combined fWAR in the 4-5 range.  

Haniger and Conforto have both logged innings in CF in the past, neither had good defensive metrics, but I am sure we will occasionally see them sliding over but their main contributions should be to free up YtY and Slater to form a 2-man CF platoon.  If any of the starting OF's go down with injury, we are staring into the abyss.  Maybe Heliot Ramos gets it together this year?  Maybe Luis Matos finds some helium?  Vaun Brown?  Grant McCray?

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #34 Nick Zwack

Nick Zwack LHP.  DOB:  8/1/1998.  6'3", 230 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 17(Mets).

2022(A Mets):   1-1, 4.97, 12.2 IP, 17.05 K/9, 1.42 BB/9.

2022(A+ Mets):  5-1, 1.84, 63.2 IP, 10.18 K/9, 2.26 BB/9.

2022(A+ Giants):  1-1, 3.99, 29.1 IP, 11.05 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.

In addition to J. D. Davis, the Mets inexplicably gave the Giants three better than decent pitching prospects to get Darin Ruf last year in a midseason trade.  Nick Zwack's scouting reports say he has a low-mid 90's sinking FB and a sweeping slider that is his best pitch.  The changeup lags a bit but he has enough of a mix to project as a multi-inning reliever or back-end SP.  Best part if he has two more seasons to develop before the dreaded Rule 5 eligibility hits.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign.....A Two-Way Player?

 Ronald Guzman 1B/LHP?  DOB:  10/10/1994.  B-L, T-L.  6'5", 235 lbs.  IFA 2011(Rangers).

2022(AAA- Yankees):  .255/.344/.478, 16 HR, 11.0 BB%, 26.8 K%, 373 PA.

2022(AAA- Yankees):  0.0, 0.00, 0.1 IP, 1 K, 2 BB.  

2022(Yankees):  0 for 6, 0 BB, 5 K.  

Once upon a time, Ronald Guzman was considered an elite prospect.  The Rangers paid over $3.5 M in bonus money to sign him.  Although he has had his moments, his pro career is mostly disappointing.  This appears to be a depth signing by the Giants on a minor league deal. What's intriguing here is apparently Guzman's very short pitching appearance in AAA last season is more than one-off event.  He reportedly quietly worked all season in the bullpen and continued to work on his pitching this offseason.  He reportedly has been sitting on a 95 MPH FB.  There is a video out there of his strikeout pitch from that one appearance and it looked like a big league pitch.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Hurston Waldrep

 Hurston Waldrep RHP.  DOB:  3/1/2002.  6'2", 205 lbs.  College(Florida).

2022(So. Miss):  6-2, 3.20, 90 IP, 33 BB, 140 K.

After a strong sophomore season at Southern Mississippi, Waldrep transferred to Florida for his junior season.  MLB Pipeline scouting report has him with a mid-high 90's FB, a hard slider that generates a 55% miss rate and a changeup with sink and face.  3 pitches that are at least above average.  Video shows arms long for height with loose arm action.  Some effort in the delivery.

Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B/DH(College)

8.  Hurston Waldrep RHP(College)

9.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

10.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #35 Juan Sanchez

Juan Sanchez LHP.  DOB:  11/12/2000.  6'2", 165 lbs.  IFA 2917.

2022(A+):  3-0, 3.76, 52.2 IP, 12.82 K/9, 4.96 BB/9, 7 Saves, GB/FB= 1.55.

Juan Sanchez seemed like a promising prospect when he put up a 9.30/1.92 K/BB in the DSL at age 17.  He has progressed steadily through the system putting up better peripheral stats than ERA but has never had that breakout campaign.  He's now into Rule 5 Draft and minor league FA territory at age 22, the same age as many players get drafted out of college.  Sorry, but that's not right!  No scouting report on his stuff. 

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #36 Andy Thomas

 Andy Thomas C.  DOB:  6/17/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 5(Mariners).

2022(A+- Mariners):  .264/.400/.444, 9 HR, 16.2 BB%, 24.9 K%, 265 PA.

2022(A+- Giants):  .174/.304/.221, HR, 14.7 BB%, 24.5 K%, 102 PA.

Under-the-radar acquisition at the trade deadline last year coming over from the Mariners in the Curt Casali/Matt Boyd trade.  The best part of this trade is there is no immediate roster pressure on Thomas as he still has two full seasons before he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft so plenty of time to develop.  Discrepancy between his performance before and after the trade can be almost completely explained by extremes of BABIP luck.  The man definitely knows how to take a walk!

2023 International Signing Day Report

Yesterday was the first day of the new International Signing Day cycle.  The Giants reportedly signed 23 players including two with 7-figure bonuses.  You can find the complete list on NBC Sports Bay Area linked to the left.  Here are three names to play particular attention to:

Rayner Arias OF, Dominican Republic.  DOB:  4/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.  Bonus:  $2.7 M

Arias is the son of former minor league player and scout, Pablo Arias.  He shows prodigious power, winning HR derbys since at least age 13.  In addition to the raw power, he reportedly already has an advanced approach at the plate and controls the strike zone.  His plus tools are hit, power and arm.  Some scouts think he has enough speed to play corner OF with an arm to play RF.  Others think he has more of a 1B/DH.  Wherever he ends up on the field, the bat is projected to play.  Arias is the #15 ranked international prospect by MLB Pipeline.

Yosneiker Rivas SS, Venezuela.  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 161 lbs.  Bonus $1 M

Very little information on Rivas.  Marc Dellucci posted a video taken from the Carlos Guillen Academy Facebook page.  From the video, he appears to be a bit taller and leaner than Arias despite their listed heights and bats lefthanded.  He shows some speed on the base paths legging out a triple.  

Chen-Hsun Lee RHP.  DOB:  1/14/2002.  6'4", 210 lbs.  Taiwan. $650 K.

Big, athletic looking RHP.  Long legs and arms.  Has pitched at university level and for the Taiwan national team.  Has been on scouting radars for years.  TJ surgery in 2019 but has pitched since with return of mid-90's velocity.  Slider, splitter, changeup and curveball round out a 5-pitch mix.  Could start at a higher level than other international signees and could move up fast in the system.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #37 Wade Meckler

 Wade Meckler OF.  DOB:  4/21/2000.  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 178 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 8

2022(College):  .347/.456/.478, 23 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 12 SB, 20 BB, 16 K, 328 PA.

2022(ACL):  .289/.460/.395, 4 2B, 22.0 BB%, 16.0 K%, 50 PA.

2022(A):  .439/540/.683, 7 2B, HR, SB, 18.0 BB%, 16.0 K%, 50 PA.

Extreme contact hitter in college without much power.  Walk rate took a big jump in the pros but that could reflect on the level of competition.  Meckler has overcome some obstacles to get to this point and is a keen student of swing mechanic. He says in an SI article by Marc Delucci that the Giants organizational hitting philosophy aligns with his.  Whether he can ever generate enough power in the bat to succeed at the highest level remains to be seen.  On video on the Youtube, his stance and swing remind me of YtY.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #38 Victor Bericoto

 Victor Bericoto OF/1B.  DOB:  12/3/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 155 lbs.  IFA 2018.

2022(A):  .265/.353/.395, 12 HR, 3 SB, 11.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, 487 PA.

After a strong start to his pro career in the DSL in 2019, Bericoto lost his second pro season to the COVID pandemic and for some reason had just 19 PA's in 2021 at the Arizona Complex.  Given those setbacks, his batting line last year with A San Jose is quite impressive. He will need to hit because he is defensively limited to 1B and corner OF.  He has filled out his frame quite a bit since his listed weight of 155 lbs.  I am going to put an offensive breakout alert on him. Watch for him in the A+ Eugene Emeralds boxscores.

Hot Stove Update: Updated Giants Position Analysis: Left Field

 2022:  

Joc Pederson 102 G, -8.4 UZR, -16.5 UZR/150, 2.1 fWAR(multiple positions).

Luis Gonzalez 52 G, -0.9 UZR, -5.8 UZR/150, 0.3 fWAR(multiple positions).

Darin Ruf 28 G, -2.7 UZR, - 29.7 UZR/150, -0.7 fWAR(multiple positions).

LaMonte Wade Jr 19 G, 0.1 UZR, -2.3 UZR/150, 0.2 fWAR( multiple positions).

Thairo Estrada 18 G, -0.4 UZR, -11.6 UZR/150, 2.7 fWAR(multiple positions)

Austin Slater 16 G, 0.4 UZR, 16.3 UZR/150, 2.1 fWAR(multiple positions).

Yermin Mercedes 8 G, -0.8 UZR, -30.7 UZR/150, -0.2 fWAR.

Austin Dean, Jason Krizan, Heliot Ramos, Jason Vosler 3 G

J.D. Davis 2 G

Lewis Brinson, Steven Duggar, Bryce Johnson, Luke Williams 1 G

2023:

Michael Conforto(Projected) 140 G?, 27 HR/600 PA(Career), 3.9 fWAR/600 PA(Career), 0.9 UZR(2021), 2.1 UZR/150(2021).

Outcome:  Upgrade?

Opportunity for Upside:  Conforto has to stay healthy and return to his career averages.  There is really no viable backup plan.

Comment:  Left field was another disaster position for the Giants in 2022.  While it's not a premium defensive position, Giants left fielders as a group gave up way too many defensive runs.  A healthy Conforto should eliminate the defensive liability while providing close to Joc Pederson level offense and remove 1 position from the platoon carousel.  Of course, health is the big concern and if Conforto is not healthy, the position falls back into the abyss.  Austin Slater could be a short side platoon partner but the expectation is for Conforto to play the position full time.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #39 Nick Sinacola

 Nick Sinacola RHP.  DOB:  10/29/1999.  6'2", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 7(College- Maine)

2022(A):  6-6, 3.86, 102.2 IP, 10.17 K/9, 3.42 BB/9.  

Solid body.  Wiry Strong.  Has a 3-pitch mix which has him on the SP/bulk innings track so far in his pro career.  Scouting report says best pitch is a slider he throws more than the FB.  Also has a split finger changeup.  Roger Munter posted two videos on The Youtube showing a total of 16 K's.  I counted 4 FB, 8 SL and 4 Sp/CH.  FB reported to sit in high 80's/low 90's topping out at 93 MPH.  If he can maintain enough velocity to keep hitters honest, he could develop into a mid-rotation SP.

Hot Tip

 There is an article by Jay Jaffe over on Fangraphs I highly recommend everyone here read.  It's entitled JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot:  Matt Cain.

I would like to particularly call call attention to a quote in the article taken from another article by Eno Sarris, who used to write for Fangraphs, in The Athletic:

"Cain retires third in all time pop-ups since we started tracking the play, and recognizing that this was a skill of his was important to statistical models.  It's not a stretch at all to say that his ability to elicit pop-ups is why pop-ups are now counted in pitching WAR on Fangraphs."

OK back in the day when you could write comments after articles in Fangraphs before you had to purchase a subscription I clearly remember pointing out Matt Cain's fairly unique ability to induce pop-ups as a key to his success and why they should not expect his numbers to regress based on BABIP and HR/FB alone and getting regularly flamed for saying that to the point where I got threatened with banning if I kept it up.  So there, Fangraphs!  I might not have had the ability to crunch the numbers like they did but I bet they would not have bothered if I had not posted those comments.

DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #40 Alexander Suarez

 Alexander Suarez OF.  DOB:  12/20/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.  IFA 2018.

2022(A):  .231/.296/.412, 12 HR, 13 SB, 5.2 BB%, 29.2 K%, 346 PA.

Alexander Suarez is one of those kids with tools galore who just needs to develop the skills to match.  That's a lot easier said than done, especially when you lose a year of development to a global viral pandemic.  The jump from the complex to full season ball is big.  Suarez' batting line looks a lot better when you subtract his April split of .122/.234/.195 and the double digit HR and SB are encouraging.  Obviously needs work controlling the strike zone.  Will be Rule 5 eligible after 2023 at only age 22, the age of a lot of college players when they are drafted.  That does not seem fair.  Needs a breakout season.

Hot Stove Update: Farhan and Boras and Carlos Correa Speak

The Carlos Correa free agent saga continues to be the gift that keeps on giving as most of the principle players finally spoke out....well, Scott Boras never stopped speaking out, but you know what I mean.  

Carlos Correa:  Correa was surprisingly not bitter in his comments saying he was "shocked" when a problem with his physical came up and he's never had any significant problems with the ankle since his injury at age 19.  He said his takeaway lesson from the experience is that medical experts can look at the same set of information and have different opinions, an astute observation.

 Scott Boras expressed frustration that the Mets consulted the same doc as the Giants.  He also took a shot at that doc essentially saying they only looked at an MRI image without considering the current function of the patient then name-dropped a list of prominent orthopedist who he says don't think it's a problem.  Fair enough but that begs the question of what the MRI showed.  I looked it up and degenerative arthritis is the most common longterm complication of Correa's injury.  Could the hardware be showing signs of loosening?  Is there evidence of non-union of the fracture which makes him dependent on hardware that could loosen in the future?  Those details would be interesting to know.  

Farhan Zaidi, know around these parts as FZ, spoke to the press again and was asked if he felt vindicated.  FZ took the high road and said not at all.  His vindication will be based on the Giants on-field performance this season and beyond.  His biggest frustration came when the original deal was reported before he had a chance to notify Brandon Crawford.  That was a dig at Boras who had to be the source of the leak but FZ should have known that would happen.

In the end, it could be years before we know whether the doc and the Giants and the Mets made the right call or not as it will depend on whether the ankle situation shortens Correa's effective career.

*************************************************************************************

FZ addressed the Brandon Belt situation saying the Giants checked in on Belt and he appeared healthy, but there just wasn't room on the roster.  He said he is really high on Lamonte Wade Jr and expects him to be the primary first baseman an expectation I am sure many fans would take vehement exception to.  I can definitely see the upside in LMWJ but that's a lot of faith!  Of course, there is no guarantee that Belt's knee won't flare up again after his first game with Toronto.  Do they still use artificial turf up there?

FZ also said he does not expect to sign another catcher to a MLB deal.  Wynns cleared waivers and has the option of declaring himself a free agent.  He could still be back with the Giants on a minor league deal and they could sign another catcher or two to minor league deals with spring training invitations.  FZ said the Giants are really, really high on Blake Sabol.  Again, I can see the upside in Sabol but word on the internets is he's a better defensive OF than catcher.  FZ seemed to give off the sense that the 40-man roster is pretty much set to go into spring training which is now little more than a month away.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Jacob Wilson

 Jacob Wilson SS(College).  DOB:  7/10/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 175 lbs.

2021(College):  .313/.376/.440, 4 HR, 17 BB, 19 K, 205 PA.  

2022(Northwoods):  .302/.365/.417, 2 HR, 9 BB, 3 K, 107 PA.

2022(College):  .358/.418/.585, 12 HR, 25 BB, 7 K, 275 PA.

2022(Cape Cod League):  .278/.381/.389, HR, 6 BB, 5 K, 42 PA.

Dad is former Pirates SS Jack Wilson who was also his coach at Thousand Oaks HS in SoCal and now an assistant coach at Grand Canyon where Jacob mans the SS position.  Jacob may be a sleeper candidate to go #1 overall as he has the athleticism to stick at SS and the size and projected power to play 3B.  Elite K and BB ratios with emerging power.  Performed well in wood bat summer leagues.

Updated 2023 Draft Board:

1.  Dylan Crews OF(College)

2.  Chase Dollander RHP(College)

3.  Wyatt Langford OF(College)

4.  Max Clark OF(HS)

5.  Jacob Gonzalez SS(College)

6.  Jacob Wilson SS(College)

7.  Paul Skenes RHP/1B/DH(College)

8.  Walker Jenkins OF(HS)

9.  Enrique Bradfield OF(College)

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #41 Diego Velasquez

 Diego Velasquez SS.  DOB:  10/1/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6'1", 150 lbs.  IFA Jan 2021($ 1 M).  

2021(ACL):  .213/.282/.231, 2 SB, 7.2 BB%, 13.9 K%, 180 PA.

2022(ACL):  .277/.369/.352, HR, 7 SB, 11.1 BB%, 16.3 K%, 190 PA.

2022(A):  .159/.213/.182, 6.4 BB%, 19.1 K%, 47 PA.

Defense first SS prospect who scouting reports say has soft hands and a plus arm.  Projected to stick at the position.  Has shown no power to speak of but already does a pretty good job of controlling the strike zone.  Videos posted on the Youtube show him to be more of a slap/groundball hitter but appears to be able to direct the ball where he wants it to go and has plenty of room to grow into frame.  Worthy rival to Aeverson Arteaga for Giants SS of the future.

Hot Stove Update: Correa Saga Over?

 The Carlos Correa SS free agency/injury saga finally may be over as he is reported to accept a deal back with the Twins for 6 yr/$200 M with vesting options for $70 M more.  I am good with this deal.  I believe the Giants "dodged a bullet" so to speak when the 13 yr/$350 M deal fell apart due to newfound injury concerns.  The Giants concerns were validated when the Mets deal fell through too and validated again with the Twins deal being significantly smaller than their original offer.  Most importantly, whatever happens in this deal going forward, it's in a division far, far away.  My wife is a Twins fan so I sincerely hope it works out for both Correa and the Twins.

Assigning winners and losers for this deal seems to be the trend so here's mine:

Loser:  Giants fans who were set up to expect a superstar signing and had the rug pulled out from them..... twice!

Winner:  Giants medical staff.  A very smart doc(s) saw something others did not and was validated in the end(although it admittedly may take years to know whether he/she truly did the Giants a favor).

Winner:  Brandon Crawford who went from being humiliated by being replace while still under contract to having an opportunity to close out his career as the greatest shortstop in Giants history.

Winner:  The Giants organization which appears to have dodged a bullet.

Loser:  Scott Boras who proved once again he is untrustworthy.  It came back to bite him this time(Although I am sure he will continue to be one of the highest rollers among MLB agents).

Winner: Twins Fans who get a legitimate superstar to anchor their team, hopefully for them for the next 6 years.

Losers:  Steve Cohen, Mets and their fans who had a very expensive but underwhelming Hot Stove League season.(Replace DeGrom with another aging pitcher(Scherzer-Verlander) who doesn't win in the postseason. Did not really upgrade anywhere else).  

Winner:  Carlos Correa who is very fortunate to get a contract that makes him very wealthy for the rest of his life.

I think that's enough.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #42 P. J. Hilson

P. J. Hilson OF.  DOB:  8/25/2000.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 6.

2022(ACL):  .295/.381/.563, 9 HR, 13 SB, 7.6 BB%, 30.0 K%, 210 PA.

2022(A):  .375/.400/.550, 2 HR, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 13.3 K%, 45 PA.

The scouting report on P. J. Hilson when he was drafted out of HS was an extremely raw but toolsy project who would take some time to develop.  After struggling mightily for 3 seasons plus a lost season to COVID, he finally found traction but in his 5'th year of development which means he was already Rule 5 eligible this year and may be a minor league FA after next season.  That would seem to mean it is imperative he build on the gains he made in 2022 and move up high enough in the system to be added to the 40-man roster which the FZ era Giants do not like to do unless a player is essentially MLB ready.

 

On several videos posted on the Youtube Hilson shows a compact, athletic frame with a powerful swing.  One video posted by Roger Munter shows him driving a HR over the CF wall and another showing some speed on the bases.  Funny thing is for some reason I was under the impression he was B-L, T-L so it's weird seeing him listed as B-R, T-R and hitting righty in the videos.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #43 Anthony Rodriguez

 Anthony Rodriguez SS/3B.  DOB:  9/20/2002.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 165 lbs.  IFA 2020($800 K).  

2021(ACL):  .224/.352/.352, 4 HR, 5 SB, 14.5 BB%, 31.2 K%, 199 PA.

2022(ACL):  .251/.338/.389/.6 HR, 2 SB, 10.9 BB%, 34.2 K%, 201 PA.

Videos posted on the Youtube show a compact, athletic frame with well balanced swings from both sides of the plate and some speed on the basepaths(although he got thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple).  Patience at the plate with pretty good pop for age.  K's need to come down.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs calls him a "plus defensive infielder."

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign A Reliever; The Belt Wars Are Over

 The Giants today signed Luke Jackson RHP to a 2 yr/$11.5 M contract with a club option for 2025.  Jackson was a big part of the Braves World Series Championship run of 2021 but missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery which he underwent in April 2022.  Jackson will likely open the season on the IL and hopefully will be an addition to the bullpen by midseason.  

Jackson's best pitch is a hard slider(87-88 MPH) that he throws about 40% of the time and a mid-90's FB which he also throws about 40% of the time.  A low 80's curveball rounds out his arsenal.

To make room for Jackson on the 40-man roster, the Giants traded Yunior Marte RHP to the Phillies for Erik Miller LHP.  Miller is a big, hard-throwing lefty drafted out of Stanford who has had injury issues himself in the form or a rotator cuff strain, but appeared to be healthy all last season.

So let me get this straight:  The Giants just traded a kid with an electric fastball and zero injury history for a guy with a recent history of rotator cuff issues to make room on the 40-man roster for a guy who is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery!  OK, I'm only half kidding.  There is a better than even chance Jackson is a solid setup man for the next 2-3 seasons and while Marte is intriguing, he was a fringe member of the bullpen last season only because the Giants did not have enough guys like Luke Jackson.

*************************************************************************************

The Brandon Belt Era is over in San Francisco.  We will likely see continued skirmishes in the Belt Wars but the bulk of the fighting is done.  Who won?  We may never know!  He reportedly agreed to terms with the Toronto Blue Jays, for 1 year/$9.3 M.  The Brandon Belt story is way too long to tell in this post but he was a key member of two championship squads and will be missed.  Oh, and FZ must really, really believe in Lamonte Wade Jr.!

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #44 Mikell Manzano

Mikell Manzano RHP.  DOB:  11/30/2002.  6'0", 140 lbs.  IFA 2020

2021(DSL):  3-4, 3.54, 48.1 IP, 13.03 K/9, 0.93 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.63

2022(ACL):  3-3, 3.93, 55 IP, 13.25 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.83

2022(A):  0-2, 23.63, 2.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 10.13 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.50

Manzano is a smallish RHP with big time K/BB, at least until an end-of-season promotion to San Jose with an extremely SSS.  There are several videos of him pitching you can look up on the Youtube.  He obviously weighs more than 140 lbs but is otherwise athletic looking with loose arm action.  He seems to be able to pinpoint his FB on the outside corner and backs that up with a late breaking ball.  I am not sure but I think I saw both a curveball and slider in the videos.  I can't say I saw anything that looked like a changeup.

This completes my trio of IFA prospects age 20 or less coming out of the ACL and whose last names all start with M.  We'll call them the M boys, Manzano, Medina and Maldonodo.  Two righties and 1 lefty.  All with similar physical size and pitching style.  My feeling his Maldonado may have the highest ceiling but Medina is a lefty and Manzano had the best ratios and nabbed the late season promotion.   I am hopeful they will all be assigned to San Jose to start 2023.  I will watch their progress with interest.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Updated Position Analysis- Shortstop

 2022:

Brandon Crawford.  116 G, .231/.308/.344, 9 HR, 8.5 BB%, 21.4 K%, -3.5 UZR, 9.2 Def, 2.0 fWAR.

Thairo Estrada.  37 G, .260/.322/.400, 14 HR, 21 SB, 6.1 BB%, 16.5 K%, 1.5 UZR, 1.5 Def, 2.7 fWAR.

Donovan Walton.  14 G, .158/.179/.303, HR, 1.3 BB%, 20.5 K%, -0.3 UZR, -2.2 Def, -0.7 fWAR.

Dixon Machado  5 G, .200/.294/.200, 5.9 BB%, 29.4 K%, 0.3 UZR, 0.1 fWAR.

Jason Vosler.  1 G

2023:

Brandon Crawford

Thairo Estrada

Isan Diaz?

Brett Wisely?

Casey Schmitt?

Marco Luciano?

Will Wilson?

Outcome:  Stand Pat

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Better health and a bounceback at the plate for Brandon Crawford.

2.  Estrada moves over to SS full time and the Giants find another 2B.

3.  Sign Carlos Correa to a short term contract(very unlikely)

4.  Marco Luciano blows the doors out in Richmond, gets a midseason promotion and wins ROY(also a pipedream).

5.  Trade for a reserve MI who can really pick it at SS(Not many of those available but there are a few).

Comment:

Well, the Giants tried for the big upgrade here.  After torrents of outrage from sportswriters and fans alike, it now appears likely the Giants just had a really smart medical team that found something in Correa's leg others didn't and now the consensus is whatever they found is a legitimate concern.  Now they are back to square one with a concern that at age 36 Crawford's regression last year could accelerate into a full blown age-driven decline and the backup plans are not looking good.  On the other hand, Crawford is a year away from a .895 OPS so a positive regression with better health is not impossible.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #45 Nomar Medina

 Nomar Medina LHP.  DOB:  11/23/2002.  6'0", 190 lbs.  IFA 2020.

2021(ACL):  2-1, 2.57, 35 IP, 9.51 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 3 Starts, 2 Save.

2022(ACL):  6-0, 2.22, 65 IP, 9.69 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 12 Starts, 1 Save.

IFA signed in 2020.  Initially assigned to DSL camp but sent to Arizona for his first pro season in 2021 where he pitched well.  Perhaps he was kept back in 2022 so stretch him out into a starter/bulk innings role?  Don't have a scouting report but his K/BB indicate above average stuff with excellent command.  There is a short video posted on his personal Youtube channel.  It shows him to be a stocky lefty with impeccable FB command with at least 2 solid secondary pitches.  Gotta think we'll see him in SJ in 2023.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Enrique Bradfield

Enrique Bradfield OF(College).  DOB:  12/2/2001.  B-L, T-L, 6'1", 160 lbs.

2021(College-Vanderbilt):  .336/.451/.414, HR, 47 SB, 30 BB, 74 K, 232 AB.

2022(College-Vanderbilt):  .317/.415/.498, 8 HR, 46 SB(46 att), 41 BB, 40 K, 243 AB.

Bradfield has been on scouting radars from high school days.  Slash and dash guys with 80 speed are mostly a relic of the past, but MLB pace-of-play rules changes that favor base-stealers may increase his chances of making an impact at the MLB level.  Intriguing pick for a team willing to bet on that.

Hot Stove Update: Giants 2023 Updated Position Analysis- Third Base

 2022:

Evan Longoria, 68 G.  .244/.315/.451, 14 HR, UZR= 0.0, fWAR= 1.3, 298 PA.

Wilmer Flores, 34 G.  .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, UZR= -0.3.  fWAR= 1.4(multiple positions), 602 PA.

Jason Vosler, 29 G.  .265/.342/.469, 4 HR, UZR= -0.4.  fWAR= 0.5, 111 PA.

David Villar, 27 G.  .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, UZR= 1.1, fWAR= 0.9, 181 PA.

J.D. Davis, 18 G.  .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, UZR= 1.5, fWAR= 0.9(multiple positions, Mets/Giants), 365 PA.

Luke Williams, 8 G.  .236/.287/.315, HR, 11 SB, UZR= 0.2, fWAR= 0.3, 136 PA(multiple positions/2 teams).

Thairo Estrada, 3 G. UZR= 0.2.

2023:

Wilmer Flores

J.D. Davis

David Villar

Outcome:  Stand Pat/Downgrade?

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Consistency due to better health from younger players.

2.  Davis and Villar both have 25-30 HR potential with 500 PA's.

Comment:  I believe a big key to Giants success in 2023 is finding 500 PA's for both Davis and Villar.  That could happen by putting one at 3B and the other at 1B.  The biggest barrier to that alignment is FZ/Kap's penchant for L-R matchups.  If LMWJ returns to 2021 form at the plate, he is admittedly probably a better option against RHP's than either Davis or Villar.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #46 Gerelmi Maldonado

 Gerelmi Maldonado RHP.  DOB:  12/21/2003.  6'2", 170 lbs.  IFA 2020.

2021(DSL):  2-1, 5.22, 29.1 IP, 9.20 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, GB/FB= 0.89.

2022(ACL):  0-2, 2.27, 39.2 IP, 13.39 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, GB/FB- 1.30.

Exciting numbers from an 18 yo pitching prospect.  Moving up from the DSL to ACL he dramatically increased an already good K rate, lowered his walk rate and increased his groundball rate.  It doesn't get much better than that.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs visited the Scottsdale complex before the season started and wrote up his observations on 6/22/2022.  He was impressed by the Giants coaching staff using advanced technology to make on-field adjustments, especially for pitchers.  He mentioned that Maldonado was throwing 94-96 MPH.  He appears to be ready to move up to full season ball in San Jose.  Potential breakout prospect.

Hot Stove Update: Conforto Signs; Wynns Churned Out

 No sooner did I put up an update of the Giants catcher position but it gets thrown into chaos with an unexpected DFA.  As long expected, the Giants finally formalized the Michael Conforto OF signing but the corresponding DFA was Austin Wynns C leaving Joey Bart as the only C listed on the 40-man roster.  Rule 5 draftee, Blake Sabol, has played some catcher but is listed as an OF.  Sabol has no MLB experience but his AAA batting line looks promising and he does bat lefthanded.  I have to say I saw him more as a 5'th OF/3'rd C than a full-fledged back up C which I assumed is why the Giants list him as an OF.

The Giants did make a couple of minor league signings which suddenly seem more significant now.

Brett Cumberland is a switch-hitting C out of Cal with unimpressive minor league stat lines.  

Clint Coulter is a 29 yo OF who has done some catching in the minors among multiple positions.  He slashed .297/.377/.533, 9 HR, in 207 PA's for AAA Memphis in the Cardinals organization last year.

And the Giants still have Ricardo Genoves C and Ford Proctor 2B/C on the AAA Sacramento roster.

There may be more moves coming.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Updated Position Analysis- Second Base

2022: 

Thairo Estrada 102 G, -1.8 UZR, -3.9 UZR/150

Wilmer Flores  61 G. -0.7 UZR, -2.1 UZR/150

Tommy LaStella 3 G

Ford Proctor 6 G

Jason Vosler 1 G

Donovan Walton 14 G 

David Villar 11 G, -0.3 UZR, -10.2 UZR/150.

2023(Steamer Projection):

Thairo Estrada

Wilmer Flores

David Villar

Brett Wisely .243/.311/.392, 2 HR, SB, 70 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Outcome:  Stand Pat

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Career progression for Thairo Estrada

2.  David Villar learns the position

3.  Brett Wisely playes his way into a strong half of platoon role and outplays expectations.

4.  Sign or trade for veteran lefty hitting middle infielder.

Surprising that Flores' UZR is higher than Estrada's because by eye test, Estrada has a lot more range at 2B.  Wisely looks like as good a bet as anything available on the market.  Can he grab the opportunity?

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #47 Zach Morgan

Zach Morgan C.  DOB:  3/30/2000.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 180 lbs.  Drafted 2022 round 7

2022(College- Fresno State):  .381/.454/.592, 8 HR, 25 BB, 17 K, 253 PA.

2022(ACL):  .148/..233/.222, 10.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 30 PA.

2022(A):  .250/.400/.625, 10.0 BB%,  30.0 K%, 10 PA.

Very different K/BB in pro ball than college, but extremely SSS.  First position player taken in 2022 draft by the Giants just ahead of Wade Meckler.  Intriguing catcher prospect. Stockton native.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Updated Roster Analysis- First Base

 2022:  

Brandon Belt 63 G.  .213/.326/.350, 8 HR, 0.0 fWAR, 0.9 UZR.

Wilmer Flores 45 G.  .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, 0.0 fWAR, 0.0 UZR.

Darin Ruf 36 G

Lamonte Wade Jr 22 G.  .207/.305/.369, 8 HR, 0.2 fWAR, -0.9 UZR.

J.D. Davis 14 G. .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA, 0.9 dWAR, -0.6 UZR(2 teams).

David Villar 11 G. .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, 0.9 fWAR, -1.0 UZR(4.8 at 3B).

Yermin Mercedes 4 G

Tommy La Stella 3 G

Jason Vosler 2 G

Michael Papierski, Mike Ford, Kevin Padlo 1 G each.

2023(Steamer Projection):

LaMonte Wade Jr.  .228/.324/.392, 13 HR.

Wilmer Flores .250/.322/.414, 16 HR.

J.D. Davis .242/.334/.405, 11 HR.

David Villar .228/.318/.422, 13 HR.

Outcome:  Stand Pat

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Bounceback by Lamonte Wade Jr to 2021 performance.

2.  Play Davis or Villar full time.

3.  Re-sign a healthy Brandon Belt.

First base was a disaster for the Giants in 2022 so it will be hard for them to not upgrade on that performance.  Unfortunately that could be the case as they stayed away from a weak free agent first base market.  The bats with the highest ceilings are Davis and Villar who are both better fielders at 3B and neither bats lefthanded.  Best defensive alignment would be Villar at 3B and Davis at 1B.  I'm thinking they may start the season with a straight platoon of LaMonte Wade Jr and Wilmer Flores with Davis at 3B and Villar optioned to AAA.  If you are horrified by that, I don't blame you, but think of it this way:  If LMWJ Is healthy returns to his 2021 production he is probably a better option against RHP's than either Villar or Davis.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #48 Jared Dupere

Jared Dupere OF.  DOB:  1/23/1999.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 13 

2022(ACL):  .254/.329/.556, 4 HR, 4 SB, 10.0 BB%, 24.3 K%, 70 PA.

2022(A):  .289/.364/.570, 10 HR, 2 SB, 9.8 BB%, 28.0 K%, 143 PA.

2022(A+):  .143/.208/.265, 7.5 BB%, 35.8 K%, 53 PA.

Hit 21 HR his junior season in college at Northeastern.  Performed well in summer wood bat leagues.  Broke out after promotion to A San Jose but then face planted after promotion to high A Eugene, albeit SSS.  Expect him to start 2023 season in Eugene with opportunity to move up.  2 more minor league seasons before Rule 5 eligibility.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Updated Roster Analysis- Catcher

 We'll start off our position-by-position comparison of the 2022 roster with the currently projected 2023 roster looking at whether they upgraded, downgraded or stood pat as well opportunities for upside.  First position up is Catcher:

2022:

Joey Bart 97 G, 83 Starts, 80 Starts at C, 3 Starts at DH, 1 PH, 3 PR.  .215/.296/.364, 11 HR, 8.9 BB%, 38/5 K%, 291 PA, 0.6 fWAR. 

Austin Wynns 66 G, 48 Starts, 43 Starts at C, 5 DH, 3 PH, 1 PR.  .259/.313/.358, 3 HR, 5.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 177 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Curt Casali 41 G, 35 Starts, 32 Starts at C, 2 1B, 1 DH.  .203/.318/.331, 5 HR, 13.6 BB%, 28/4 K%, 176 PA, fWAR= 0.4.  Traded midseason.

Michael Papierski 5 G, 3 Starts, 3 Starts at C, 1 1B, 1 PH.  0 for 9, BB, -0.2 bWAR. Churn.

Andrew Knapp 6 G, 3 Starts, 3 Starts at C. 1 for 4, 2 BB, 0.0 bWAR.  Churn.

2023:

Joey Bart(Steamer):  100 G, .220/.287/.372, 11 HR, 354 PA, 0.9 fWAR.

Austin Wynns(Steamer):  30 G, .241/.316, .358, 2 HR, 0.4 fWAR.

Blake Sabol(Steamer):  27 G, .243/.314/.402, 3 HR, 0.7 fWAR.

Outcome:  Stand Pat

Opportunity for Upside:  

1.  Bart was better in second half.

2.  Presumptive upward career trajectory for Bart.

3.  Wynns hit .283 in second half, .356 in Sept/Oct.

4.  Sabol as OF/3'rd C. Lefty bat, should hit better than Casali.

Comment:  For the second consecutive year, a lot is riding on Bart approaching his potential ceiling.  At no point in the Hot Stove League season did FZ or any of the beat writers suggest they were looking to upgrade the position and what's left on the FA market is definitely not an upgrade.  They reportedly kicked the tires on Sean Murphy but he ended up traded to ATL for a package the Giants could have matched or bettered so the degree of their interest is questionable.  At this point it looks like Bart or bust with hoping for Wynns improvement with consistent playing time and Sabol as a competent third option.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #49 Mauricio Pierre

 Mauricio Pierre OF.  DOB:  11/23/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 180 lbs.  International FA 2020, Panama.

2022(ACL):  .232/.293/.297, HR, 5 SB, 151 PA.  

I ranked Pierre because he is a "my guy" prospect.  I just like him for some reason, not the least of which is his almost perfect size for a young prospect.  Decent numbers in the DSL last year at age 17.  Got off to a pretty good start in the ACL for his age 18 season before an 0 for 15 string in August tanked his season.  First order of business is to bring the K rate down but he's just entering his age 19 season.

Hot Stove Update: Is the Giants Hot Stove League Season Completed?

FZ came out and broke his radio silence on the Carlos Correa situation in particular and the offseason in general.  While there are still medical issues he appropriately feels he can't discuss, he is obviously feeling some vindication as Correa's situation with the Mets drags on.  He directly refuted several Scott Boras assertions such as Correa was dressed on ready to go to the press conference when he first learned of the Giants concerns.  FZ flatly stated the Giants informed Boras the day before about their medical concerns.  He also said the Giants circled back to Boras after the Mets deal was held up but was told that Correa is focused on another team.  Translation, don't expect Correa in a Giants uniform anytime soon.  He also stated that any reports of disagreement between ownership and the baseball people in the process are false.

FZ then spoke about the Giants offseason moves in the past tense and said he hoped the fans would understand they made some solid moves to improve the team.  I think we all understand that FZ's offseason is never completely done and The Churn continues year-around, I assume all major moves are done unless an unexpected opportunity arises.  I will start a series of posts looking at 2023 Giants position-by-position looking at whether they upgraded, downgraded or stood pat and speculate on how they might find upside.

DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #50 Hunter Bishop

Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 1 #10 overall.

2022(A+):  .235/.320/.406, 13 HR, 20 SB, 8.7 BB%, 32.7 K%, 358 PA.

There are two factors that keep me from writing off Hunter Bishop entirely:  He once was a top 10 overall draft pick and he essentially lost two full seasons of development due to COVID 19 in 2020 and to injury in 2021.  If you squint hard, you can see the combination of power and speed that made someone think he should be drafted that high.  The walk rate is not terrible either.  The K rate has to come down.  I am not quite sure where he goes from here.  AA Richmond does not seem like the place for him to improve those numbers, so maybe it's back to A+ Eugene?  He probably has to stay healthy and show some sign of development to remain in the organization.