DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #1 Marco Luciano

 Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.  

2021(A):  .278/.373/.556, 18 HR, 5 SB, 12.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, 308 PA.

2021(A+):  .217/.283/.295, HR, SB, 6.9 BB%, 37.2 K%, 145 PA.

2021(AFL):  .253/.356/.373, 12.6 BB%, 32.2 K%, 87 PA.

Marco Luciano was the top international prospect signed by the Giants in 2018 for $2.6 M.  Considering they also signed Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares that year, that's saying something.  Although Luciano was not necessarily the top overall international prospect in 2018, he was ranked by analysts as having the top tools.  So far, he has lived up to the hype. The top tool is power.  With a filled out frame, 2021 was a breakout power year mostly for A level San Jose.  Video of his 2021 performance put together by Sean Bialaszek shows Luciano spraying home runs to all fields with the kind of easy power you see from the top hitters in the game.

The 36 games for A+ Eugene were a bit of faceplant, but it was a late season promotion and Luciano was the youngest player in the league.  His numbers recovered somewhat for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the AFL and he was likely one of the youngest players in that league too.  

He's slipped a bit in Fangraphs overall prospect rankings, mainly due to a concern about whether he can remain as shortstop.  Apparently the rap is with throwing accuracy, not arm strength.  Giants Farm Director, Kyle Haines, was less specific but also voiced concerns.  "He's not going to be Brandon Crawford.  I don't see that."  If Luciano has to move off SS, it obviously affects his future value in prospect rankings, but the bat looks like it should easily play anywhere on the field.  I think we are talking 35-40 HR/year over multiple seasons.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #2 Luis Matos

Luis Matos OF.  DOB:  1/28/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 160 lbs.  

2021(A):  .313/.358/.494, 15 HR, 21 SB, 5.7 BB%, 12.4 K%, 491 PA.

I am not sure I remember the Giants having a true 5-tool CF since Willie Mays.  Maybe Chili Davis?  Let me introduce you to Luis Matos, who has a chance to be that guy.  Not the next Willie Mays, mind you.  That's an impossible ask, but Matos has a legitimate shot at being the best Giants CF since Willie Mays.  He is coming off a tremendous age 19 season in A ball with a relatively low BB% being the only question mark.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Matos has plus-plus bat speed and the wheels to stay in center field, with only his aggressive approach holding him back from the 55 tier."  In my opinion, that's being just a bit nitpicky for a 19 yo kid.  If the low BB% was tied to a high K rate, there would be real reason for worry.  As it is, he really only needs to be slightly more selective and has plenty of time to figure it out. 

Marco Luciano has more present power and probably more future power potential, but with serious questions about his ability to stick at SS, Luis Matos is closing in fast on a legitimate claim for #1 Giants prospect.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #3 Joey Bart

 Joey Bart C.  DOB:  12/15/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 238 lbs.

2021(AAA):  .294/.358/.472, 10 HR, 7.5 BB%, 29.4 K%, 279 PA.

2021(MLB):  2 for 6, 0 BB, 2 K.

Joey Bart was the Giants #2 overall draft pick in 2018 after an outstanding junior season at Georgia Tech, somewhat of a catcher factory school.  He's a huge, hulking dude but surprisingly athletic for his size.  While he does not project to be an elite defensive catcher, he's more than adequate.  The big question is with the bat.  The raw power is immense, but is it usable?  After a rough MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he was assigned to AAA last year with hopes of dominating.  Although his slash line looks solid on the surface it came with a K rate approaching the red zone.

After Buster Posey's retirement, FZ gave Bart a vote of confidence saying he showed he is ready.  That has not completely quieted the doubters and talks of the Giants going out and getting another veteran C to start the season have grown louder as the lockout has stretched on.  If you look at what's available on the FA market, any reasonable person would conclude the Giants are probably better off to role with Bart and Casali and hope Ricardo Genoves(if he doesn't get nabbed in the Rule 5 Draft) and Patrick Bailey are ready to stand in the gap if necessary.  Being handed the starting C job from day one of the season, whenever it occurs, is a tremendous opportunity that few prospects get.  It's up to Bart to grab it by the throat.  We'll all be watching with interest.  If he taps into a fraction of his power potential, he'll be a plus.  Taking over as the #1 catcher immediately after Buster Posey has to be intimidating.  Us fans need to realize nobody is going to replace Buster Posey but maybe someday we say the same about Joey Bart.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #4 Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos OF.  DOB:  9/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 188 lbs.

2021(AA):  .237/.323/.432, 10 HR, 7 SB, 10.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, 266 PA.

2021(AAA):  .272/.323/.399, 4 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.4 K%, 229 PA. 

It's a bit challenging to get a good read on Heliot Ramos which is probably why his stock has slipped a bit.  The numbers are good but not dominating.  On the other hand, he split time between AA and AAA in his age 21 season which is quite young for the levels.  Of course the corollary to that is we have every right to expect him to come back this year and dominate AAA and force the MLB door open.  

The BB% at AA is encouraging.  My own "eyeball" metric for BB% is anything over 10 is excellent, 8-10 is good, 6-8 is OK.  Under 6 is a big red flag.  Of course BB% has to be interpreted in context.  In general, higher BB%'s tend to correlate with higher K rates because 1.  You can't strike out unless you get to a two-strike count first.  Patient hitters tend to have more two-strike counts.  2.  If I understand correctly, the Giants teach their hitters to not shorten up their swings and "protect the plate" on two strike counts.  They are willing to accept more K's in return for more long ball ops.  With that said, my "rule of thumb" metric for K% is <15% is elite, 15-20% is good, 20-25% acceptable, 25-30% worrisome and over 30% is "red flag" territory.  Ramos' ratios are not great but not terrible either and he appears to be capable of improvement after adjustment to level.

The last issue with Ramos is body type.  Last year, Fangraphs described him as a "boulder stacked on two Iberico hams".  Just looking at some video footage from last season, I am quite sure Heliot weighs way more than his listed 188 lbs.  Granted, almost all of that weight appears to be muscle but it's a body that appears to be at risk for not aging well and you have to wonder if it currently qualifies for being "muscle bound".  In trying to think of comps for OF's with that body type, I would put forward Kirby Puckett, Perhaps Torii Hunter, Ron Leflore and if you want to go back to my childhood days, the "Toy Cannon", Jim Wynn.  

I am almost certain the Giants will add a frontline OF before the season starts but if they don't, there is an outside chance Heliot Ramos will start the season on the 26 man active roster but more likely he goes back to AAA where the hope is he will dominate and position himself for a midseason opportunity.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #5 Kyle Harrison

Kyle Harrison LHP.  DOB:  8/12/2001.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2021(A):  4-3, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 14.32 K%, 4.74 BB%.  GB/FB= 1.57.

Kyle Harrison was the Giants third round draft pick in 2020, but got late first round money as the Giants scraped together enough money from below-slot bonuses elsewhere to give him a $2.5 M signing bonus.  His pro debut made that look like a smart allocation of bonus dollars as he dominated the Cal League at age 19.  His FB, which was reported to be in the low 90's in HS ticked up to a reported 93-98 MPH and was backed up by a slider and changeup.  That arsenal enabled him to strike out 1.5 batters per inning. Couple the K's with a strong groundball tendency is generally considered the holy grail of pitching.  

He's got a strong frame with features reminiscent of Logan Webb.  Fangraphs describes him as having a "noticeably strong lower half, which he uses to get low to the ground and push off the mound for a monstrous lunge toward home plate."  In fact, you can think of him as being roughly a mirror image of Logan Webb!  On video, the delivery looks pretty violent to me with the lunge creating a sudden acceleration with a sudden deceleration and significant recoil at the finish.  That violence may explain a higher walk rate than ideal, something to watch going forward.  

Let's take a look at a couple of comp seasons:

Madison Bumgarner LHP:

2008(Age 18)(A):  15-3, 1.46, 141.2 IP, 10.42 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.07.  Bumgarner was a year younger, had a lower K rate, a neutral GB tendency, but a much better BB/9.  The Cal league tends to favor hitters much more than the Sally.  Bum made his MLB debut late the next season at age 19, came up for good midseason 2010 and won a WS game that year.

Logan Webb RHP:

2016(Age 19)(A):  2-3, 6.21, 42 IP, 6.43 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, GB/FB= 2.03.  Webb had two short seasons of pro development before his age 19 A season which ended prematurely due to Tommy John surgery. Although he pitched in 2017, the surgery obviously set his development back by a couple of years and he did not make his MLB debut until 2019. He did not reach double digit K/9's until later in his pro career.

Matt Cain RHP:

2003(Age 18)(A):  4-4, 2.55, 74 IP, 10.95 K/9, 2.92 BB/9.  Cainer made his MLB debut late 2005 at age 20 and never looked back.

In summary, Kyle Harrison comps favorably to 3 ace or near-ace level pitchers in relatively recent Giants history two of whom moved fast through the system.  Command issues may slow his MLB ETA and I worry about injury risk with the violent delivery.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #10 - 6

 10.  Aeverson Arteaga SS.  DOB:  3/16/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 170 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .294/.357/.503, 9 HR, 8 SB, 10.2 BB%, 30.5 K%, 226 PA.

The Giants gave Arteaga a 7 figure bonus during the 2019 international signing period.  His pro debut was delayed due to COVID restrictions but he turned heads with homers in 4 consecutive games in July in Arizona.  Fangraphs scouting report cautions that the Giants complex is a bit of a wind tunnel, but raves about his defense and speed.  He should get a chance to prove the doubters wrong with San Jose in 2022.  He has plus defensive tools across the board making all the plays and throws.  Marco Luciano may be a better all-around prospect, but Arteaga appears to have a significantly better chance to be the Giants SS of the future, especially if he can hit at all.

9.  Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .160/.313/.200, 15.6 BB%, 31.3 K%, 32 PA.

2021(A):  .000/.111/.000, 11.1 BB%, 77.6 K%, 9 PA.

2021(A+):  .167/.333/.250, 13.3 BB%, 26.7 K%, 15 PA. 

2021(AFL):  .262/.373/.381, 6 BB, 20 K, 51 PA.

#10 overall pick in FZ's first Giants draft in 2019.  Put up some extreme 3 true outcomes numbers in his pro debut.  2021 data very limited by injuries but a major disappointment to say the least.  Bishop's stock rebounded a bit in the AFL capped off by a HR in the Fall Stars game, but he remains a low contact hitter whose value will likely be completely dependent on power.  He gets ranked this high mainly on draft pedigree and what Fangraphs scouting report calls "exceptionally loud tools."  He desperately needs a full healthy season at no lower than A+ level in 2022.

8.  Patrick Bailey C.  DOB:  5/29/1999.  B-S, T-R.  6'1", 210 lbs.

2021(A+):  .185/.290/.296, 2 HR, 11.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, 155 PA.

2021(R AZ):  .400/.571/.400, 28.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 PA.

2021(R A):  .322/.415/.531, 7 HR, 13.5 BB%, 22.7 K%, 207 PA.

2021(AFL):  .292/.375/.417, HR, 12.5 BB%, 30.4 K%, 56 PA.

#13 overall pick in the 2020 draft.  Pro debut was a faceplant in A+ ball, but Bailey got his feet under him in San Jose and dominated the Cal League after a short tune up in the complex in AZ.  That success carried over into the Arizona Fall League raising hopes for a more successful 2022 season at higher levels.  Fangraphs is enthusiastic enough to rank him as the Giants #3 prospect.  A successful switch-hitting catcher is incredibly valuable.  He just needs to keep hitting.

7.  Jairo Pomares OF.  DOB:  8/4/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 185 lbs.

2021(A):  .372/.429/.693, 14 HR, 6.7 BB%, 24.1 K%, 224 PA.

2021(A+):  .262/.269/.505, 6 HR, 1.0 BB%, 31.7 K%, 104 PA.

Jairo Pomares has a sweet swing and toonder in his bat.  As you can see, he got extremely swing happy after his promotion to A+.  That's something to watch going forward.  His walk rate plunged after a midseason promotion in 2019 too and that corrected after he became more comfortable at the level.  The power appears to be legit, though.  He's still young enough to take his time adjusting to levels as he moves up.

6. Will Bednar RHP.  DOB:  6/13/2000.  6'2", 229 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

2021(A):  0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 5.40 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

Bednar's stock rose dramatically through the 2021 college season culminating in domination of the College World Series.  The Giants made him the 13'th overall pick in the draft.  Bednar has a strong, sturdy frame.  His fastball velocity ranges from 92-97 MPH.  He commands it to both sides of the strike zone and can effectively elevate it in two strike counts.  His best pitch is a sharp slider which he can throw in and out of the zone.  Per Fangraphs scouting report he rarely used his changeup in college but it's not a bad pitch and should quickly contribute to his pro repertoire.  Beyond potential injuries, I see no reason for him to not move quickly with a possible mid-late season MLB debut. Fun Facts:  1.  Will Bednar's brother, David, is a reliever for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  2.  The Giants have taken Mississippi State alums in the first round of three drafts:  Will Clark 1B 1985, Chris Stratton RHP 2012 and Bednar.

Hot Stove Update: Fangraphs Publishes Five Year Projections For Seiya Suzuki

One of the more anticipated developments to follow the end of MLB's lockout, whenever that occurs, is the signing of Japanese free agent Seiya Suzuki.   Anticipation is running particularly high for Giants fans since their team is thought to be on Suzuki's short list of teams he is interested in signing with.  Suzuki put up spectacular numbers with the Hiroshima Carp in 2021:

.317/.433/.639, 38 HR, 9 SB, 533 PA.  

What that might translate to in MLB has been a mystery due to lack of MLB stats to plug into projection systems.  Dan Szymborski fixed that with a just-released ZIPS projection on Fangraphs based on comparative data from prior players with stats from both leagues.  Better yet, the projections are for 5 seasons, the projected duration of a Suzuki contract.  So without further ado, here they are:

2022:  .287/.351/.480, 23 HR, 12 SB, 529 AB, 2.6 fWAR.

2023:  .285/.350/.488, 23 HR, 10 SB, 502 AB, 2.5 fWAR.

2024:  .282/.349/.479, 21 HR, 10 SB, 489 AB, 2.2 fWAR.

2025:  .281/.347/.479, 21 HR, 9 SB, 474 AB, 2.1 fWAR.

2026:  .278/.341/.466, 19 HR, 8 SB, 457 AB, 1.6 fWAR.

It's important to understand that these numbers represent the mean of a range of possible outcomes.  Obviously it is highly unlikely that a player would put up such consistent numbers for 5 seasons.  Some seasons would likely be better and some worse.  The system also does not account for catastrophic injuries.  

You may be interested in how these projections compare to other potential free agent signings:

Kris Bryant(2022):  .261/.351/.463, 23 HR, 7 SB, 590 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Nick Castellanos(2022):  .287/.340/.534, 31 HR, 3 SB, 603 PA, 2.6 fWAR.

Tommy Pham(2022):  .246/.346/.397, 15 HR, 14 SB, 537 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Andrew McCutchen(2022):  .232/.336/.426, 19 HR, 6 SB, 470 PA, 1.0 fWAR.

J.D. Davis(2022):  .262/.342/.430, 12 HR, 2 SB, 371 PA, 1.3 fWAR.(possible trade candidate).

Of course Kris Bryant and Nick Castellanos are projected to cost significantly more than Seiya Suzuki, but I'm not so sure because Suzuki's market seems to have heated up during the lockout while Bryant's and Castellanos' seem to have cooled.  I'm not sure why Bryant's fWAR projects higher, maybe due to positional versatility?  Castellanos' value obviously takes a hit on defense.  Pham and Cutch would be bargain shopping deals and Davis' WAR value takes a hit due to a history of part time play with the Mets.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #15-11

15.  Ricardo Genoves C.  DOB:  5/14/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 190 lbs.

2021(A):  .338/.441/.551, 6 HR, 13.7 BB%, 18.0 K%, 161 PA.

2021(A+):  .217/.294/.364, 7 HR, 9.0 BB%, 29.8 K%, 245 PA.

2021(AAA):  .455/.478/.727, HR, 4.3 BB%, 26.1 K%, 23 PA.

Genoves has long been regarded more for his leadership and defense than his bat.  His performance in 2021 was still a uneven but showed enough offense to put him back on some radar screens.  He may have a chance to be a MLB backup catcher.  He's another of the Giants unprotected Rule 5 Draft eligibles.  As dismal as the MLB catcher FA agent market is, I could see some team out there thinking he could stick with their 26 man MLB roster.

14.  Ryan Murphy RHP.  DOB:  10/8/1999.  6'1", 190 lbs.

2021(A):  4-2, 2.96, 76 IP, 13.74 K/9, 2.13 BB/9.

2021(A+):  2-2, 1.44, 31.1 IP, 13.79 K/9, 2.30 BB/9.

Murphy makes up for pedestrian FB velocity with superior command of secondary stuff.  It remains to be seen if that mix plays at higher levels.

13.  Sean Hjelle RHP.  DOB:  5/7/1997.  6' 11", 228 lbs.

2021(AA):  3-2, 3.15, 65.2 IP, 9.46 K/9, 2.60 BB/9.

2021(AAA):  2-6, 5.74, 53.1 IP, 5.91 K/9, 4.89 BB/9.

After a promising start to the season in AA, Hjelle did a faceplant after a promotion to AAA which caused his stock to drop dramatically with prospect analysts.  He may have gotten caught in a perfect storm of a midseason promotion to a very tough hitting environment just as fatigue coming off a shortened season was kicking in.  It's important for him to get off to a solid start this season. The height remains intriguing.

12.  Camilo Doval RHP.  DOB:  7/4/1997.  6'2", 185 lbs.

2021(AAA):  3-0, 4.99, 30.2 IP, 12.91 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 1 Save.

2021(MLB):  5-1, 27 IP, 12.33 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3 Saves.

The people who are down on Sean Hjelle might want to review Camilo Doval's AAA numbers before his spectacular MLB debut.  Doval still has work to become an elite MLB closer.  He has to learn to trust the FB and not put himself in positions where he has to throw strikes with the slider.  If you throw enough sliders in the strike zone, you're eventually going to hang one and if the batter is timing it, it's going to go a long way.  He obviously has the tools to be elite, though.

11.  Ryan Reckley SS.  DOB:  9/6/2004.  B-S, T-R.  5'10", 160 lbs.

DNP(Signed as amateur free agent Jan 2022).

The only tool missing for this 17 yo is hitting for power and that should improve with maturity.  MLB Pipeline scouting report says he has the arm to stay at SS but there's enough speed to play in CF if he ever needs to move.  That Reckley debuts at #11 after getting a $2 M + signing bonus shows how deep the Giants system is.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #20-16

20.  Will Wilson IF.  DOB:  7/21/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 184 lbs.  

2021(A+):  .251/.339/.497, 10 HR, 7 SB, 10.7 BB%, 25.0 K%, 224 PA.

2021(AA):  .189/.281/.306, 5 HR, SB, 10.0 BB%, 36.7 K%, 221 PA.

I honestly have no idea what to think about Will Wilson and I have to admit I ranked him this high almost solely due to his draft pedigree.  As I am sure you all know, he is a former first round draft pick who the Giants essentially paid $12 M to acquire from the Angels.  The Giants have treated him like a top prospect with fairly long looks in spring training, assignment to the offsite in 2020, Arizona Fall League assignment.  There's some intriguing power in there and the walk rate is nice but there's no way to sugar coat the faceplant after promotion to AA and it wasn't any better in the A.  2022 is likely a make-or-break year.

19.  Nick Swiney LHP.  DOB:  2/12/1999.  6'3", 185 lbs.  

2021(R AZ):  0-0, 1.13, 8 IP, 18.00 K/9, 6.75 BB/9.

2021(A):  0-0, 0.74, 24.1 IP, 15.53 K/9, 4.44 BB/9.

It's a little frustrating that we still have such a small pro sample size from Swiney and at such a low level as he missed much of 2021 with a concussion. Fangraphs scouting report gives him high praise for his curveball and changeup which he relies on more than a pedestrian fastball that he throws less than 1/3 of the time.  That profile often hits a wall at higher levels. He should be assigned no lower than A+ to start 2022 and hopefully we can see those kinds of numbers for a full season.

18.  Matt Mikulski LHP.  DOB:  5/8/1999.  6'4", 205 lbs. 

2021(R AZ):  0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 9 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.

Big lefty with a big fastball and a plus changeup.  Per Fangraphs it sounds like his slider has potential to be another plus pitch and he still has work to better command his stuff.

17.  Diego Rincones OF.  DOB:  6/14/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.

2021(A+):  .300/.385/.533, 5 HR, 9.3 BB/9, 17.8 K/9, 107 PA.

2021(AA):  .290/.373/.505, 10 HR, 7.5 BB/9, 17.4 K/9, 213 PA.

Very nice bounceback season for Rincones after a disappointing 20219 and a missed season in 2020.  Downside for Giants fans here is the upcoming Rule 5 Draft which he is eligible for and the Giants did not protect him from.  I could definitely see some team out there seeing those numbers from Richmond and thinking he could contribute at the MLB level now.

16.  David Villar 3B.  DOB:  1/27/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 215 lbs.

2021(AA):  .275/.374/.506, 20 HR, 5 SB, 10.3 BB%, 25.1 K%, 446 PA.

Villar is another guy who is Rule 5 Draft eligible and not on the 40-man roster.  A terrific season for Richmond makes him a potential target.  Not sure the timing of a post-lockout Rule 5 draft but their eligibility probably makes both Rincones and Villar candidates to be part of a trade package.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Cody Carroll To Minor League Deal

 The Giants threw another log on the fire to keep the Hot Stove burning with yet another minor league FA signing of....you guessed it!  Another bullpen arm!  Cody Carroll has MLB experience, albeit not too successful, but pitched only in the minors in 2021.

Cody Carroll RHP.  DOB:  10/15/1992.  6'5", 215 lbs.  

2021(4 levels/5 teams):  2-0, 4.46, 34.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9.

Carroll came up through the Yankees farm system but got his two cups with the Orioles.  He's got the ideal size going.  Fangraphs pitch data shows him with a mid-high 90's FB, average 95-96 MPH, with a slider and split.  He appears to have the tools to be a serious MLB relief option.  Another project for the Giants pitching coaches.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #25-21

25.  Gregory Santos RHP.  DOB:  8/28/1999.  6'2', 190 lbs.

2021(AAA):  1-1, 5.17, 15.2 IP, 8.62 K/9, 5.17 BB/9.

2021(MLB):  0-2, 22.50, 2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 9.00 BB/9.

After looking at these numbers and a 50 game suspension for PED use, I'm thinking this ranking is way too high.  Yikes!  There is that triple digit fastball though.

24.  Kervin Castro RHP.  DOB:  2/7/1999.  6'0", 185 lbs.

2021(AAA):  6-1, 2.86, 44 IP, 12.27 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

2021(MLB):  1-1, 0.00, 13.1 IP, 8.78 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

Wow!  I did not realize how good Kervin Castro was last year. Those numbers are very competitive with Camilo Doval's.  Maybe I should have ranked him a bit higher?

25.  RJ Dabovitch RHP.  DOB:  1/11/1999.  6'3", 208 lbs.

2021(A+):  0-0, 1.42, 12.2 IP, 19.89 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 4 Saves.

2021(AA):  1-1, 3.66, 19.2 IP, 15.56 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 6 Saves.

Dabo made some interesting comments to David Laurilia of Fangraphs about how the Giants coaches told him if he changed the grip on a couple of pitches, his K rate would go up.  He said, OK, I'll try it and sure enough, the K rate went up beyond anything he expected.  No surprise if we see him pitching in Oracle Park before the end of 2022.

22.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  DOB:  12/1/1998.  6'4", 260 lbs.

2021(A+):  5-6, 4.33, 95.2 IP, 13.36 K/9, 4.99 BB/9.

Per Fangraphs, Teng's rather pedestrian FB is augmented by an "offspeed arsenal" of "big league quality."  Bulk, and easy, simple delivery should help him be a "bulk innings" guy, but we're looking at more of a 3-4 SP than 2-3.

21.  Luis Toribio 3B.  DOB:  9/28/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 185 lbs.  

2021(A):  .229/.351/.356, 7 HR, 2 SB, 15.4 BB%, 27.7 K%, 408 PA.

Toribio's season may not have been up to the expectations some analysts had for him, but if you look at that walk rate and OBP, Toribio actually had a pretty good season for San Jose last year.  He's still young enough for the power to emerge.  If it does, nobody will care about the BA.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #30-26

 30.  Alexander Suarez OF.  DOB:  12/20/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 160 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .311/.379/.503, 6 HR, 16 SB, 4.7 BB%, 33.6 K%, 214 PA.

OK, the K and BB numbers are ugly but this kid, who is reportedly Luis Matos' cousin, is a physical monster.  Look up the videos for yourself.  We'll have to see how the metrics play out but the ceiling is about as high as it gets.

29.  Garrett Frechette 1B.  DOB:  12/31/2000.  B-L, T-L.  6'3", 200 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .331/.388/.438, 6.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 188 PA.

2021(A):  .219/.268/.289, 5.7 BB%, 31.7 K%, 123 PA.

Sweet swinging first baseman with current gap power with projection for more.  Again, the peripherals are a bit scary but hopefully they improve with experience.

28.  Adrian Sugasty C.  DOB:  10/23/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 170 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .358/.405, 439, 2 HR, SB, 7.4 BB%, 16.0 K%, 163 PA.  

Exciting young catching prospect from Panama.  Will we see him in San Jose for his age 19 season?

27.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS.  DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.

2021(A+):  .262/.342/.495, 19 HR, 12 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32.2 K%, 432 PA.

High K rate is worrisome but all the other boxes check going into what should be his AA season.  I wonder if Giants are coaching their prospects to not worry about K rates and swing for the fences with 2 strikes?  

26.  Armani Smith OF.  DOB:  7/19/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 215 lbs.

2021(A):  .339/.365/.627, 4 HR, 2 SB, 3.2 BB%, 17.5 K%, 63 PA.

2021(A+):  .279/.351/.442, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 29.2 K%, 288 PA.

As I always say, if you are tearing the cover off the ball in every PA, there is no reason to try to take a walk.  Interesting that Smith's walk rate improved significantly after promotion to A+ but K rate bumped too.  Interesting corner power bat prospect.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Three Pitchers

The Giants have signed 3 more pitchers as minor league free agents.  Here are their profiles: 

Raynel Espinal RHP.  DOB:  10/6/1991.  6'3", 215 lbs.

2021(AAA):  11-4, 3.44, 117.2 IP, 8.80 K/9, 3.29 BB/9

2021(Red Sox):  0-0, 9.00, 2.0 IP, 0.00 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

This is a serious signing of a pitcher who has a legitimate shot at being 5'th SP and could also help in a multi-inning relief role.  Looking over his minor league record which starts in 2013 with the Yankees, you have to wonder why he did not get a whiff of MLB until last season.  The only answer I can see is the Yankees farm system is a really tough neighborhood to live in.  Fangraphs pitch tracker has Espinal throwing just two pitches in his 2 MLB IP, a 93 MPH FB(75%) and a splitter(25%).  He probably needs to get a third pitch to be a MLB SP.

Luis Ortiz RHP.  DOB:  9/22/1995.  6'3", 230 lbs.

2021(AAA):  2-2, 4.60, 43 IP, 9.21 K/9, 3.56 BB/9.  

Ortiz is a big, burly RHP out of Sanger, CA. I really liked him a lot when I scouted the 2014 draft cycle.  He's kind of kicked around in a couple of organizations(Rangers/Orioles) not known for developing pitchers.  Maybe the Giants pitching mavens can finally unlock his potential?

Wei-Cheih Huang RHP.  DOB:  9/26/1993.  6'1", 170 lbs.

2019(AAA):  1-2, 6.10, 31 IP, 12.19 K/9, 7.26 BB/9.

2019(MLB):  0-0, 3.18, 5.2 IP, 3.18 K/9, 7.94 BB/9.

Huang has not pitched in U.S. pro baseball since 2019.  No word on why.  MLBTR reports he struck out 5 batters in 3 IP in the DWL this year which is where the Giants may have scouted him.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #35-31

 35.  Manuel Mercedes RHP.  DOB:  9/21/2002.  6'3", 162 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  3-3, 5.11, 56.1 IP, 9.91 K/9, 3.99 BB/9.

International signing in July 1999.  Missed 2020 due to COVID restrictions so AZ Complex in 2021 was his pro debut.  Reportedly already hits the mid-upper 90's with the FB paired up with a plus but inconsistent slider.  Should start at full season A ball for SJ with an opportunity to establish himself as a top prospect.  BTW, Fangraphs already has him #14 in Giants system.

34.  Prelander Berroa RHP.  DOB:  4/18/2000.  5'11", 170 lbs.

Small, but hard throwing. Fangraphs has him as #39 prospect in Giants organization.  They project him as a reliever due to small size, violent delivery and bouts of wildness.

2021(A):  5-6, 3.56, 98.2 IP, 12.31 K/9, 4.83 BB/9.

33.  Carson Ragsdale RHP.  DOB:  5/25/1998.  6'8", 225 lbs. 

02021(A):  8-6, 4.43, 113.2 IP, 13.22 K/9, 3.56 BB/9.

Height is a two-edged sword for pitchers.  It creates leverage and downward angles but it also tends to make deliveries less repeatable with accompanying command issues.  Per Fangraphs, Ragsdale is able to accentuate his height with an over-the-top delivery.  He seemed to tire toward the end of 2021 but this is understandable with over 100 IP after a year layoff.  Should move up to A+ for 2022.

32.  Esmerlin Vinicio LHP.  DOB:  1/31/2003.  6'2", 141 lbs.

International bonus baby from the 2019 cycle.  Very thin.  Average FB but Fangraphs reports great spin rates on secondary pitches.

2021(R AZ):  3-3, 2.64, 58 IP, 10.86 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

31.  Mauricio Pierre OF.  DOB:  11/23/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 180 lbs.

2021(R DSL):  .256/.336/.436, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.4 BB%, 29.5 K%, 149 PA.

$490 K bonus out of Panama in 2020.  Projectability is the watchword for him.  Currently has 5 solid tools, maybe none outstanding but all project to improve with maturity.  The 5 HR's in the stat line stands out as impressive for a 17 yo in the DSL.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #40-36.

 40.  Sean Roby 3B/1B.  DOB:  7/8/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 215 lbs.

2021(A+):  .241/.325/.464, 19 HR, 10.2 BB%, 31.4 K%, 421 PA.

As you can see from the 19 HR, Sean Roby's got the toonder in his bat.  I don't have a detailed scouting report but my impression is he tends to be a one-dimensional hitter and player who will probably wash out at higher levels.

39.  Ismael Munguia OF.  DOB:  10/19/1998.  B-L, T-L.  5'10", 158 lbs.

2021(A+):  .336/.366/.502, 9 HR, 15 SB, 3.6 BB%, 7.6 K%, 357 PA.

Munguia is the opposite of Roby, an undersized extreme contact hitter with some speed in his game.  A whiff of power showed up in 2021.  If he can sustain and build on that, he's got a shot to be a 4'th or 5'th 

38.  Conner Nurse RHP.  DOB:  7/31/1999.  6'6", 210 lbs.

2021(A+):  6-7, 4.86, 113 IP, 9.08 K/9, 4.06 BB/9.  

Nurse was always a project from the moment he was drafted.  He has intriguing height.  It should be about time for his frame to fill out and him to dominate if he's ever going to.  

37.  Seth Corry LHP.  DOB:  11/3/1998.  6'2", 195 lbs.  

2021(A+):  3-3, 5.99, 67.2 IP, 13.30 K/9, 8.38 BB/9.

Corry obviously still has the swing and miss stuff, but his command took a major regression and it's time to worry if he'll ever get that under control.

36.  Eric Silva RHP. DOB:  10/3/2002.  6'1", 185 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  0-1, 36.00, 1 IP, 18 K/9, 27 BB/9. 

This year's overslot bonus pick in Round 4.  Silva is a bit undesized and his FB tops out in the mid-90's but he has plus spin rates and his secondary stuff is advanced for his age.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #45-41

45.  Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/7/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

 2021(R AZ):  .309/.400/.455, HR, 3 SB, 13.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, 65 PA.

2021(A):  .250/.299/.400, 2 HR, 4 SB, 6.8 BB%, 34.1 K%, 88 PA.

Grant McCray is as tooled up as any player in the Giants system.  He was drafted in round 3 of FZ's first draft in 2019 when the Giants selected almost all hitters.  Despite having pro baseball pedigree(his dad, Rodney, is famous for a viral video showing him crash through the outfield wall of a minor league stadium), Grant has always been considered a raw talent who would be a project.  His best tool is speed and the hope is he will fill out a thin frame and develop power.  As you can see from the K rates, he is still a work in progress.  He's the type of prospect most hurt by losing a year of development in 2020.  2022 is a pivotal year for him as he needs to prove he can hang in a full season league.

44.  Logan Wyatt 1B/DH.  DOB:  11/15/1997.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 230 lbs.  

2021(R AZ):  .242/.286/.394, 5.7 BB%, 28.6 K%, 35 PA.

2021(A+):  .238/.398/.295, 20.1 BB%, 18 K%, 289 PA.

Second round selection in FZ first draft.  The latest "god of walks" going all the way back to college.  The obvious hope is he will develop into a Joey Votto type hitter, but the power has been nonexistent up to now.  It's hard to argue with the plate discipline numbers but something is off when a guy this size has such pathetic power numbers.  Maybe he is too passive, get into too many two-strike counts then is swinging defensively?  That's my theory.  I'm keeping him in the top 50 on the strength of his plate discipline numbers and draft pedigree but if some semblance of power does not show up in 2022, he could be a bust.

43.  Cole Waites RHP.  DOB:  6/10/1998.  6'3", 180 lbs.  

2021(R AZ):  1-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 21 K/9, 6 BB/9.

2021(A):  1-0, 0.87, 10.1 IP, 20.9 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 2 Saves.

Hard throwing RHP missed most of season due to knee injury.  Closed some games for San Jose at end of season and hit triple digits with his FB several times.  Could be a fast mover on the Closer track in 2022.  

42.  Chris Wright LHP.  10/14/1998.  6'1", 205 lbs.  

2021(A):  0-0, 1.13, 8 IP, 19.13 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 4 Saves.

2021(A+):  4-0, 0.97, 37 IP, 15.08 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 17 Saves.

Another guy who seems to be on the reliever track and dominated at two levels last year.  Per Fangraphs, he "doesn't offer big velocity, but his spin and pitch shapes are excellent."  That sounds like maybe he should get a shot at starting somewhere along the way.

41.  Frankie Tostado 1B/OF.  DOB:  3/31/1998.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 205 lbs.  

2021(AA):  .249/.302/.429, 14 HR, 7.0 BB%, 23.1 K%, 398 PA.

Hitting 14 HR's while playing for Richmond is no small feat, but the secondary numbers don't exactly jump out at you.  Tostado was a low-round draft pick out of an obscure CA JC program so has to prove himself at every level.  May not have quite enough in the bat for a 1B/corner OF/DH profile at the MLB level.  Dude has an 80 grade name, though.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #50-46

We'll start counting down the profiles of my top 50 Giants prospects for  2022.  Again, my philosophy is to not worry too much about exact rankings but use the exercise to learn more about potential future Giants.

50.  Matt Frisbee RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'5", 215 lbs.

2021 AA:  5-4, 3.77, 59.2 IP, 9.80 K/9, 1.51 BB/9.

2021 AAA:  1-6, 7.64, 53 IP, 7.81 K/9, 3.06 BB/9.

Eric Longenhagen's Fangraphs scouting report for Frisbee from last year was "carved the lower levels with 90-94, plus vertical movement and plus slider command.  If he does it at AA this year, he'll be a 40 FV."  Well, Frisbee did it at AA but then did a faceplant after a promotion to AAA.  The fear with him has always been not quite enough stuff to play at higher levels.  He should get another chance to show he can do it in Sacramento in 2022.

49.  Casey Schmitt 3B.  DOB:  3/1/1999/. B-R, T-R.  6'2", 215 lbs.

2021(A):  .247/.318/.406, 8 HR, 2 SB, 7.9 BB/%, 15.7 K%, 280 PA.

Normally, we like to see college draftees assigned to A+ level for their first full pro season, but with 2020 being a lost season both at the college and pro levels, A is probably reasonable.  That batting line is kind of non-descript and a little disappointing for the level but not terrible either.  Schmitt's big tool is a 70 arm at 3B so expect the Giants to be patient with the bat.  The performance should be enough for a promo to A+ to start 2022.

48. Simon Whiteman IF.  DOB:  1/28/1997.  B-R, T-R.  5'10", 165 lbs.  

2021(A+):  .268/.413/.366, HR, 17 SB, 17.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 107 PA.

2021(AA):  .236/.338/.345, 3 HR, 17 SB, 11.7 BB%, 28.5 K%, 309 PA.

Whiteman is a guy you want to root for.  9'th round pick in 2019 out of an Ivy League school.  He has an interesting combo of on-base skills and SB's.  Unfortunately for him, players with that profile have all but disappeared at the MLB level where power reigns supreme.  If he can maintain the OBP against higher level pitching, his defensive versatility and speed may earn him an IF utility role.

47.  Norwith Gudino RHP.  DOB:  11/22/1995.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2021(AA):  1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 14.04 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 5 Saves.

2021(AAA):  4-1, 5.66, 35 IP, 12.09 K/9, 3.34 BB/9.  

If you are thinking Gudino has been around in the Giants system forever, you are close to right.  He should be way beyond eligible for minor league free agency so I am not even sure he is still in the organization.  Last season he dominated AA out of the bullpen.  He maintained pretty good ratios in AAA.  He made 5 starts in AAA, but his longest appearance was 5 IP on 8/6.  I can see him getting an emergency call up or two in 2022. PS:  Gudino is currently listed on the Sacramento River Cats roster.

46.  Trevor McDonald RHP.   DOB:  2/26/2000.  6'2", 180 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  2-3, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 9.18 K/9, 4.12 BB/9.

2021(A):  0-1, 10.13, 2.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 10.13 BB/9.  

High school overslot bonus pick in round 11 in 2019.  McDonald is obviously a project.  2022 is probably a pivotal year as he needs to show he can hang in A ball.  Hot off the press Fangraphs scouting report has his FB at 93-95 MPH but his strength is high spin rates on his breaking pitches and an ability to mix them in on any count. Fangraphs has him ranked #35 in the organization.