Here is a list of players I like for one reason or another, or maybe for no reason who are not listed in BA's top 200 Draft Prospects, in no particular order:
Jamodrick Magruder, 2B/CF, Texas Tech- .358/.500!/.503 with 39 SB's in 44 attempts. In an offense starved draft, I can't for the life of me figure out why he's not ranked higher. I'd be happy if the Giants nabbed him as high as the 3'rd round.
Jake Stewart, CF, Stanford- .295/.337/.497 with 7 HR's. Most of the HR's came early in the season. He's an athletic guy from an elite program. Here's an interesting question: Can the Giants fix a hitter who has been ruined by Stanford?
Ty Gaffney, OF, Stanford- .246/.394/.345, 2 HR's. More of a football player. He'd obviously be a project.
Dylan Floro, RHP, CS Fullerton- 10-3, 2.52, 107 IP, 11 BB, 68 K's. Fullerton pitchers always seem to have great pitchability but the raw stuff does not project to the MLB level.
Joey Wagman, RHP, Cal Poly- 9-3, 2.33, 108.1 IP, 21 BB, 79 K's. I've noticed some nice lines in box scores.
Greg Larson, RHP, Florida- 6-0, 1.32, 47.2 IP, 10 BB, 34 K's. Senior. Huge at 6'8", 235 lbs. Gotta take a look at a guy that big with that kind of command.
Justin Haley, RHP, Fresno State- 7-3, 3.09, 84.1 IP, 33 BB, 87 K's. 6'5", 220 lbs. Size, K's and lack of command fits the profile of the type of pitcher the Giants are willing to take chances on.
Joe Sever, 2B, Pepperdine- .370/.447/.521, 6 HR, 9 SB. Big guy for 2B. I'm guessing most scouts don't think he can stay there leaving him with no position.
Zach Vincej, SS, Pepperdine- .348/.413/.454, 10 SB. I'm guessing the scouts don't think he can stay as SS.
Colton Tanner, LHP, Texas State- 5-3, 2.46, 87.2 IP, 34 BB, 87 K's. Nice size for a lefty at 6'2", 185 lbs. The strikeout and inning got my attention. Also, he was part of the Texas State rotation that reeled of something like 55 consecutive scoreless innings early in the season.
Jeffrey Gibbs, RHP, Maine- Hard thrower who got some press in the pre-season. Fell on his face with a ERA> 8. Would he sign as a later round draft pick or would he stay in school and try to improve his stock. Giants might be able to sell themselves as pitcher whisperers.
Taylor Ard, 1B, Washington St.- .332/.412/.577 with 12 HR. Classic college first baseman with a good hit tool, probably not enough power.
Dane Quist, LHP, UC Davis- 6-3, 3.15, 85.2 IP, 13 BB, 85 K's. Smallish LHP, Senior. Love the K/BB.
Anthony Kupbens, LHP, UC Davis- 5-4, 2.83, 95.1 IP, 19 BB, 49 K's. Bigger body than Quist but doesn't K anybody. Could he learn some kind of a swing and miss pitch?
Ron Miller is not listed in BA's top 200 for reasons I can't quite comprehend. I guess scouts don't like his body, but recent videos I've seen have him slimmed down a lot. I think he's signable, but probably not after round 3 or so. Nothing against Bregman, but I'm absolutely in love with Ron Miller who reminds me of a young Kevin Mitchell, at least physically. Sounds like Klima loves him too and that's good enough for me. The Minor League Ball Community Mock Draft this weekend suggests to me that the premium pichers will be gone by #84 but there will be some HS hitters like Miller or Bregman available. With the new CBA bonus rules, it gets very dicey on signablility of HS prospects past the supplemental round, but I think it's still possible for the Giants to cobble together a $1 M bonus for their second round choice. I think taking a HS pitcher like Hensley, Eflin, Traveiso or Sims at #20 then a HS hitter like Bregman or Miller at #84 would be a perfect scenario for me as a fan.
What do you think? Any other sleepers for the later rounds on your radar?
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I was on the fence about Bregman versus Miller for the mock. I like Bregman's power a bunch is all I can say with a more advanced hit tool than Miller, and he can play the middle of the field. It was decided early for the third we needed to be realistic with the bonus moneys, I would have had no problem drafting Miller in the third otherwise. Also, as the Hensley decision wasn't popular with Fla-Giant, I deferred to his list for the 3rd round, which I liked a lot, with Selman. I think Selman is a hell of a prospect though, although he may not be a realistic sign either.
ReplyDeleteI like your Kevin Mitchell comp, and I've seen the ESPNHS videos as well as Klima's raves. I'd love for the Gints to take a chance on either Bregman or Miller, and if they could somehow get both I would be estatic. My comp with Bregman is Ben Zobrist with a bit more pop and maybe a bit more glove. Obviously that is way out there, but so is Kevin Mitchell with Miller, we're just dreaming here.
Sleepers: I'd have to say the Cal lefty Justin Jones, although he might go senior year to build on a bad campaign this year. Jason Forjet SR RHP Florida Gulf Coast, was a Fla-Giant sleeper. Gibbs is a great choice, we've talked about him a bunch. Here's my 2 sleepers, from Oregon State: Tony Bryant the closer and Matt Boyd, a lefty pen arm. And how bout Andrew Triggs, draft him one more time?
Hitters, McGruder is a great call, Mike Rattarree from Rice is an interesting bat, 2B/OF guy. Ryan Jones from MI state, Joe Sclafani from Dartmouth for the MIs, and Dan Gulbransen from Jacksonville in the OF, and how bout Yaz' grandson Mike Yastrzemski from Vandy to round it off?
I understand that Brian Sabean's personal white whale, Andrew Barbosa, is up for the draft yet again after completing his redshirt senior season at age 24! I wonder if the Giants will take him again?
DeleteI would be happy with either Bregman or Miller. I just happen to have a mancrush on Miller.
Like your suggestions, Shankbone? You think we're ready for draft day?
With all this amateur scouting we've collectively done, How much do you want to be the Giants still have a surprise up their sleeve for us? Seems like it happens every year.
Great call with Barbosa. 15th round yet again for the 4th attempt?!
DeleteRumors from Mayo on his mock said: The Giants will discuss college hitters and high school pitchers.
College pitchers besides the Appel/Zimmer/Gausman/Wacha/Stroman tier are Andrew Heaney, who looks like a mid to back rotation guy but he could move fast being a crafty lefty, and Chris Stratton, who has come on very strong. Both those guys have had excellent success missing bats, I think that's where the main appeal lies. Sabes did say something about wanting starting pitching depth in his most recent Tolbert interview. Stroman has a 10% chance of falling? Maybe? I think the Lincecum comp is too strong and teams won't want to miss out.
College hitters are slim indeed. Do they take a shot at Roache? They must have seen him both at Georgia-Southern (Shawn Payne!) and the cape. I wouldn't have the fortitude after hearing the Cliff Floyd comp on his broken wrist. Richie Shaffer is it then. I doubt he'll get to us, and the only thing that bothers me about him is while he put up great stats, just not that many HRs. In the ACC and the Carolina schools that Clemson competes with, that looks like a red flag to me.
So its HS pitchers, and we have a crew of em. I could see a surprise with McCullers. His stats are sick, he topped at 100 MPH to end his HS career after sitting 96. I'm not the biggest fan, but all these Florida pitchers - Weickel, Travieso, McCullers, Eflin - look great and if the Gints bite I'd be psyched. I do like Hensley the most, and I also like Luke Sims better than the FL guys. And then there's the lefties - Virant and Smoral, be happy with both of those guys. At least 8 HS pitchers that seem right outside the Giolito/Fried tier. So there's the value. But Hensley and Sims have the rep for big velocity, spot the fastball, bulldog mentality and good curves. Sounds great to me, both of them.
So I guess taking a HS hitter would be the absolute shock. Power bats is where its at. Trey Williams won't last to the 2nd. Miller and Bregman might though. So I think a good strategy is to get a million dollar baby HS arm, and then see what you can get at the 84. However, I'd be psyched if they grabbed Addison Russell, Corey Seager, Stryker Trahan or Carson Kelly. Russell is my favorite because I think shortstop is a huge wasteland and I'd respect taking a shot at that. Seager seems like the best bet. Stryker has his fans, but he's a RF. Kelly i don't know enough about but Fla-Giant loves him. Courtney Hawkins would be awesome, no way he gets to us.
I predict they'll take somebody in the 30s-40s that nobody expects. Looking at our power prospects, Dominguez and Parker are flaming out pretty good, Ricky O and Susac are the next great hopes, we just don't have a lot of depth or star quality right now. I think power bat is the biggest need, and as much as I like the arms and expect the Gints to go that route, I really think they need to get a blue chip prospect going with plus power, even if its a huge risk.
Speaking of the Stanford guys, I would be pretty bummed with Piscotty or Diekroeger. And Marreno, who seems like Brandon Crawford to me. And the tweeners Jankowski and Naquin. But I wouldn't be too surprised if that happens.
Going to be exciting, coming right up.
I think the key here is unless the Giants really mess it up, they are going to get a really good player at #20 and probably at #84 too. I like the 20-40 ranked players about as well as #1 whoever that turns out to be. Not a good year to be holding the top pick with a slot bonus of $7 M. The RFD crowd in the ownership group should be very happy with where the Giants are sitting, but they probably don't even know there is a draft.
DeleteGreat points. The tiers exist, but they look like soft tiers to me. If Appel dropped to us, I'd let him keep on dropping. From the beginning my gut picks were Russell and Hensley. I like some other guys as well, but they seemed to have as much upside. I would like the Giants to consider someone who made Team USA, I would put some value on competing at a high level with high pressure.
DeleteRussell just seems like a huge risk. Maybe later in the supplemental or second round where the bonuses are less. He'll probably go to school if he drops that far though.
DeleteThe new CBA mandated slot bonuses are the real wild card in this draft. Teams are going to want to be sure they can sign their draftees unless they are looking to punt the pick and get an extra pick in a stronger future draft like what I suspect Arizona did with Barrett Loux in 2010.
I'm sure there will be HS draftees who go to school who would have signed under the old system and I'm sure there will be HS players who will sign for very much lower bonuses than they would have gotten in prior years. I don't think it will affect the first round and supplemental round all that much, but it will definitely have an impact on rounds 2-10.
If I was Luhnow, there is no way I want to spend my entire $7 M slot money on one of the top 6 guys. I'd be looking for somebody who will sign in the $3-4 M range and then use the left over money on going way above slot later in the draft. Only problem with that strategy is the agents know what the slot money is and just the act of drafting somebody #1 overall tends to raise bonus expectations.
Thanks to both of you on your interesting rundowns of the draft.. Hopefully the Giants draft/sign some good players..
ReplyDeletesleepers - Hawaii has a couple that might go in the mid to late rounds - Breland Almadova (JR) - 6'1" 185 LBS CF, He plays an excellent defensive CF made some highlight catches, good speed, good arm.. However he didn't hit well this year, hitting only .267 BA 3hr 20 rbis 12 steals .383 ob%.. He bats Right handed. Collin Bennent(SR) - 6'1" 205 LBS 3rd base, he did a nice job for Hawaii this year switching from a corner OF to 3rd base without a problem.. He was a true senior leader of the team.. His best tool is his hitting.. .328 BA 3 hr 33 rbi and a .439 ob%..
Its always to nice to see college players that you follow for 2-3 years get a chance at pro ball.. I hope these two get a chance..
LG
Thank you for the info on the Hawaii players. I noticed Bennett in a boxscore earlier in the season. He does look draftable.
DeleteLooking forward to this years draft. Lots of options at #20 i will be happy if we get Ty Hensley i like the reports oh him, but there many others i would be happy with as well.
DeleteOne recent mock draft linked on MLB Draft Guide has Deven Marrero falling to the Giants at #20. Not that Marrero is a bad pick at #20, but on the heels of drafting Joe Panik last year, I'd be a bit disappointed with Marrero. On the other hand, Pretty much everybody agrees Marrero can stick at SS while there are still doubts about Panik, so taking Marrero would be a nice safe choice.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a Crawford comp to me. The Giants already have Crawford and Adrianza, both plus defenders, and Joe Panik toiling away, that is a fair amount of advanced SS talent, however flawed it might be. I'd be pretty bummed with that pick. At least with Russell his bat might play in a shift to 3B. The obvious weakness in our system is power hitters, not defensive first shortstops.
DeleteBA released their top 500: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?srch=byNatRank&top=500&submit=Search#
McGruder at 422. 10th round and change? Total steal. They put Ron Miller at 386, a rating that is obviously influenced by fielding and athletic questionmarks. I vote with Klima on this, plus power and batspeed don't grow on trees, and its not a tool you can work on. In these offensively challenged times...
DJ Hicks, a former Gints pick, at the 400 spot. Big time power, big time contact issues, but also big time 3 tools, he has a great walk rate last I checked.
Also check the Arkansas guys - DJ Baxendale at 319 and Taylor Dugas at 331. Those both have Giants written all over them. Dugas is a scrapper who can play all the OF positions and Baxendale is falling on a poor year and control issues. Swoop it up!
So DrB - saw your comments on Miller at mlbdraftguide, and saw the Coast2coast mock that had Marrero going to us at 20. A previous version had Tanner Rahier go to us. Well, my gut pick "high 30s" guy they choose is... Tanner Rahier. And, here's another nugget from none other than Keith Law, in his mock draft:
ReplyDeleteSan Francisco Giants
Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty (Fla.) H.S.
They could go in a variety of directions, but apparently more on prep names than college. Eflin, who added some velocity this spring and has shot up draft boards, fits that bill. Dahl probably stops here, and Buttrey is also in their mix. There’s also an outside shot at Tanner Rahier.
That last sentence is the nugget. So I have my dark horse pick of Addison Russell, and my wild ass guess will be Tanner Rahier, reinforced by snarky snark himself.
I'd be happy with any arm though, Hensley through Smoral. 8 to choose from, that's pretty nice.