This draft is not to exciting at the top, but I think it is quite deep as evidenced by some interesting players who BA projects to be available in Round 4. A huge wild card in this draft showed up in the Minor League Ball draft with a lot of HS talent that would ordinarily go in Rounds 2 and 3 dropping due to signability concerns. That effectively moved the college guys up a round. It remains to be seen what impact it will have in the real draft. Probably won't change what the Giants do because they stuck pretty close to slot in the past, but it could really change the overall talent level in this draft. I'm sure there will be quite a few HS kids who will realize they have no leverage but still want to sign who will get a lot less money than they would have in the past. Let's see who the Giants may be looking at in Round 5, #178, keeping in mind that all these players we've discussed may be moving up a round in the real draft:
176. Edgardo Rivera, OF, Puerto Rico HS. Toolsy OF with speed. Some scouts give him an 80 grade on speed! He's expected to sign and the Giants drafted 4 PR kids last year and got 3 signed, so I think it could happen.
177. Giovanni Brusa, OF, Stockton HS. 6'3", 195 lbs. Big strong switch hitter who wants to sign. Projects as a corner OF.
179. Matthew Reckling, RHP, Rice. Could be the highest drafted college senior. 6'4", 215 lbs. Sits 88-92 MPH as a starter but has jumped up to 97 as a reliever. Also has that Rice trademark spike curve. May profile better as a two pitch reliever.
180. Mark Sappington, RHP, Div II college. 6'4", 220 lbs. FB 92-96 MPH. Probably more of a reliever. Giants love these kinds of pitchers.
181. Billy Waltrip, LHP, JC. 6'2", 215 lbs. Physical lefty who goes low-mid 90's. Again, the Giants love these kinds of pitchers in the mid-single digit rounds.
184. Jon Moscot, RHP, Pepperdine. 6'4", 210 lb. Throw strikes with a FB that has ranged 88-94 MPH, but usuall tops out at 92. Has average changeup, splitter and slider to go with it. I really like Moscot a lot and think he could be a steal in round 5. Giants may prefer the more physical reliever types though.
186. Trey Lang, RHP, JC. Another big kid at 6'3", 235 lbs, trimmed down from 260 lbs! FB goes 92-96 but his velocity and stuff faded late in the season, probably from fatigue as he was also playing OF and DH'ing. Slider was a "wipeout" pitch early in the season.
187. Scott Griggs, RHP, UCLA. UCLA closer this year. 52 K's in 30 IP but also 29 BB's. Has "electric" stuff with a FB goes 91-95 and a power curveball that is his best pitch. Command is an issue and some scouts think he'll never get it. That doesn't seem to scare the Giants off, though.
195. Christian Powell, RHP, College of Charleston. Yet another big dude at 6'5", 220 lbs. FB 90-96 as a starter with sink. Pitches more to contact than for the K's.
196. Zach Isler, RHP, Cincinnati. And yet another big reliever type. 6'5", 240 lbs. FB 90-85 with heavy sink. Often sits at 93-94.
198. Reid Scoggins, RHP, JC. There were rumors of Scoggins hitting 101 MPH early in the season sending scouts flocking to see him. By the time the scouts got there he was more in the 91-96 range. Missed 2011 with TJ surgery. 6'3", 205 lbs.
With so many big strong college reliever types available in the 4-6 round range, the Giants should be like kids in a candy store snapping up one after the other just like last year.
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What if the Giants go over-slot (money) lets say in the 1st and 2nd round. What will happen?
ReplyDeleteThe rules are set up so there is a bonus pool of money for the first 10 rounds. The Giants have a total of right around $4 M, so they could spend most of that pool in the first 2 rounds and then draft a bunch of scrubs in rounds 3-10. The problem with that strategy is most of the pool is allotted to the first two rounds anyway. The slot bonuses drop off rather quickly with the #20 pick at about $1.8 and the #84 pick at about $600 K and the rest spread over rounds 3-10.
DeleteIn a draft that is deeper in HS talent like this one and weak at the top, I could see teams trying to draft a player in the first round who would otherwise go in the supplemental or second round, get them to sign for significantly below slot and then go over slot in the later rounds. That is a very risky strategy though as MLB publishes the slot bonus numbers which gives agents a huge amount of leverage to keep their clients up around slot. Teams would have to have a predraft deal in place and trust the agent and player enough to be confident they wouldn't renege.
I think the Giants will play it straight because that is pretty much what they've always done anyway and have done it very well.
Oh, and the rules do not allow a complete punting of picks because if you the player does not sign, you lose the bonus pool money rather than getting to re-allocate it. MLB contracts for draftees are prohibited. If a team fails to sign a player they are compensated with an extra pick in the next draft rather than getting to re-allocate the pool money.
DeleteOne possible loophole is some kind of under the table deal like the Giants had with Conor Gillaspie to put him on the MLB roster a month or two down the road, but I'm sure that would raise the suspicions and ire of Selig's Secret Police.
I should probably add that if a team goes more than 5% above their slot pool, they start being penalized future draft picks. Now, you might go ahead to punt future picks in order to sign a player like Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, but I don't see any players in the current draft worth punting future picks for.
DeleteGiants bonus pool is right at about $4 M so at 5%, they only have about $200 K to play around with. Even at that, they still have to pay a 75% tax on the 5% overage. Given that it's the Giants we're talking about here, I seriously doubt that even than will happen.
Kids in the candy store is right. You nailed the big arms available here. I would be shocked if they did anything different. Unless they have a scout doing the Brandon Belt pound the table yell and jump up and down routine. Can't remember if you mentioned Brandon Welch in the 4th round or not, he's up the board a bit at BA #135, but he's 6'1, so he may fall a bit on size issues. Palm Beach State sophomore throwing low to mid 90s heat.
ReplyDeleteThe guy who maybe the Belt comp is Max Muncy. Seriously underrated ballplayer, along with the Purdue 3B you profiled last time.
Lot's of real sleepers in this draft.
DeleteHey Shankbone! The more I think about your draft yesterday, the more I like it. I think it's quite realistic in terms of what the Giants might do and in terms of slot bonus rules.
Ty Hensley isn't going to pass up $1.8 M to go to school, so they don't have to go a penny over slot for him. $600 K is probably too low for Bregman, but they can easily get to $1 M by using up their 5% overage limit and scavenging another $200 K from rounds 3-10. I think $1 M would get it done for Bregman. That would be a heckuva draft if it ended right there. Anything else they got out of if would be gravy.
Thanks DrB. I like it more the next day as well. Hensley is as good a bet as any, and I really like his size and rep for going after hitters. I think the mentality part is hugely important, and that gets overlooked. You get a horse who can keep it simple, throw heat and not get rattled? Winner. His stats are amazing, and as our Oklahoma friend pointed out, you can't teach a curve ball like that. Giants love a guy who can spot a fastball. He's up into the mid 90s sitting. Hello!
DeleteSickels gave a review today on the mock, he said he expects Bregman to be a million dollar baby and a top 10 guy in 3 years. I'll get to answering him on the blog, but I respectfully disagree with that. First off, he's a guy without a position. They're trying to call him a catcher, but he's too small. He is a 2B baseball rat with a plus plus hit tool and most likely plus power. That's valuable, but I can see a bunch of teams calling him a tweener and there is not guarantee at all he'll be top 10 in 3 years, we'd have to look at the freshman in HS, and that is a serious needle in a haystack. Fact is, starting pitchers, 5-tool OFs and what not will rule the day. I think there is a good rap to meet the guy half way with the promise of more to come the sooner he rolls through the professional ranks.
I think Bregman would be foolish to turn down a $1 M bonus which I think the Giants could scrape together for him as a second round draftee and still not run afoul of the new CBA rules.
DeleteOh yeah, I read Sickels' review. I think he's always kind of not liked the Giants, although he did defend Sabes a bit when he wrote up his Giants top 20. He basically raved about every other draft and blithely ignored a lot of signing issues except for Bregman. What is THAT all about?
DeleteLooks like Fla-Giant fleshed out a pretty nice argument already!
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