Ryan Vogelsong gave the Giants a dominant start. The Giants offense once again had trouble driving in runs, but finally broke through with a 4 run 7'th to win the game. Key Lines:
Gregor Blanco- 1 for 2, 2 BB. BA= .282. OBP= .416. Blanco conrtinues to be the table setter, the perfect leadoff hitter.
Brandon Crawford- 2 for 4. BA= .233. This Brandon is hitting .311 with an OBP of .375 over his last 10 games.
Melky Cabrera- 2 for 3, SF. BA= .337. Melky is on a pace for 215 hits and 100 Runs.
Buster Posey- 1 for 3, 2B, BB. BA= .302. Buster's double was a HR in any other park. It bounced at the base of he 421 ft sign in Triples Alley, bounced high off the brick wall and might have landed back in the field for an easy triple were it not for fans reaching over the wall trying to catch it, possibly deflecting it back into the stands for a ground rule double.
Angel Pagan- 2 for 4. BA= .304. Pagan is on a pace for 190+ hits himself. He's hitting .459 over his last 10 games.
Ryan Vogelsong- 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K's, GO/AO= 6/6. ERA= 2.27. Melky made a nice catch to open the game, but after that, Vogelsong was in complete command. He did not allow his first baserunner until the 5'th inning and promptly erased that with a DP grounder. I put in the GO/AO to illustrate that Vogey was getting outs with both his 4 seamer and 2 seamer. The thing I like most about him is the way he throws all 3 types of fastball with such authority plus a very sharp curveball and on occasional changeup to keep LH hitters honest. It's the way he uses the 3 versions of the fastball that I love about him, though. What a pleasure to watch! Note to Fangraphs: He's not regressing!
The Giants drew 5 walks in this one to run their 5 game total to 38.
Anybody know what set Bob Melvin off? I mean, it's not like the pitches the ump was calling balls were anywhere near the strike zone. I thought he was getting awfully animated for just telling the ump he was making a double switch, the the ump tossed him and he really got mad. Kind of interesting and funny.
Dodgers game is under the lights so the Giants will have to wait to see if the win gains them a game in the NL West standings. They are now 2 games above .500 at 21-19, the highest above .500 they have gotten this season so far.
Tim Lincecum battles Bartolo Colon tomorrow afternoon trying for a series sweep.
PS: OK, I have to admit I briefly fell asleep around the start of the bottom of the 7'th inning and missed the phantom HBP on Vogey. Yeah, I guess Melvin had a reason to be hot with the ump. LOL!
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Probably Bob Melvin was still pissed off at the up because of the earlier HBP that supposedly hit Vogelsong that set up the rally in the 7th inning. After Burriss led off with an infield single, Vogey squared up to bunt him over to second. The pitch was inside and Vogey drew the bat back, and the ball supposedly hit him in the chest. Melvin argued that the ball was fouled off the bat since the ball bounced pretty far off the plate near the A's dugout. Either Vogey had a chest of steel or the ball really did get fouled off. The ump was probably confused too, since he didn't immediately signal it was HBP or foul.
ReplyDeleteYup, read about it on CSN Bay Area and posted a PS. I briefly fell asleep during Vogey's AB.
DeleteI know it's hokey, but I love it when managers get PO'd and get thrown out of games. The more unhinged they get the better.
Deletei fell asleep during last nite's game
Deletewe must be getting old
mrs v confirmed that vogie does have a chest of steel
Does Mrs. V still cry when Vogey comes off the field after another successful start, or has she realized that this isn't a dream any more, and that he's a just a really, really good pitcher?
Deletelong past that....now she just jokes around with some of the folks on twitter
Deleteits nice what a 2 year contract will bring
think if the no hitter or playoffs come, she might shed a few tears
what was hard on vogie, had to be doubly hard on her...i hope all people are able to find a spouse who is as supportive as she is
and she always knew he was a good pitcher...just needed the breaks
I'm sure fangraphs is furiously typing up an apology piece on Vogelsong tonight...
ReplyDeleteThe O-dog goes to the White Sox, no more worries on that end - Is Gordon Beckham at the end of the rope? That would be a nice reclamation project, even better if dirt cheap...
I really like how Belt turns the double play on balls hit to him, its a very difficult throw for the 1B...
The OF is producing nicely right now. Keep it sharp for the sweep boys, get that first 4 game winning streak!
Agree on Belt. His fielding of ground balls followed by a throw down to 2B is a seamless thing of beauty. The pitchers have to be alert on those to get over and cover 1B on the return throw, but they've gotten it done so far.
DeleteDid you see that ridiculous piece this morning on Fangraphs about the Cardinals offense? I guess they aren't subject to sample size and regression laws the way the Giants are?
DeleteThere's a lot of that going on, the small sample size, and the outrage over the Giants sub par WAR players, without the acknowledgement that they are injury fill ins. I'd like both Pagan and Melky to get some more extra base action going, but that is really being picky. I think as the offense starts to gel, their speed will be turned loose a bit more strategically.
Delete40 games in, the pitching faltered early, the hitting was as usual, the Sandoval injury kills but the real story is the defense. With better defense they could be 3-4 games ahead of themselves easy.
Adam Lind in available on waivers. That guy used to be a really good young power bat. Would you pick him up and give him a shot to see if his power would play in the Nationsl league?
ReplyDeleteAt the salary? Its 5MM for the next 2 years plus a 2MM buyout, pro-rated for this year, according to B/R. While the power is interesting, he's a butcher with the glove. I'd say pass, he's 29 and that 2009 season is popping out pretty good as a career year.
DeleteI'd leave Lind be. He's a clankmitt who has to either play first base or DH or a very bad LF. Belt has a much higher ceiling, IMO.
DeleteThanks. Just starved for power.
DeleteIt's all about finding some stability and consistency right now, which leads to this young team finding its identity. Winning sure helps.
ReplyDeleteThe lineup sure begins to take shape when you add Panda back in and move Arias to 2B.
Voggie is pounding the zone again. Man is tough when he controls the zone with 4+ pitches. 1-hitter, I'll take it, against the A's 2x sweet.
If I was a young pitcher I would love to have Voggie to learn the MLB attitude from.
Yup, Vogelsong definitely has a sense of purpose about him. Cain, Madbum and Timmy do too, but Vogey takes it to another level.
DeleteLove the way he comes out and lays down his towel, sets up his water bottles. It's like he sets up that corner of the dugout as his office and takes charge of it. That's his territory! Then there's the game face and taking responsibility no matter what the offense or defense does behind him. Maybe it's just me, but I think he's taken the "refuse to lose" ethic to the next level in the last several games too. It's like the Kershaw game was a validation that he can hang with the elites and there are just no more excuses for losing to anybody.
Love Vogelsong, and I'm so glad he finally got to live his dream and to take some financial security away from the game. I loved Vogelsong way back when I saw him pitch a few innings with the Giants before he got traded. I thought he would turn out to be a good pitcher for the Pirates and still wonder what happened there. Maybe he picked up some mental preparation techniques in Japan?
And of course, gotta love that he didn't want to be a Dodger!
Well said DocB. That's why we watch baseball.
DeleteLind could be the power bat they desperately need,but he's in Vegas,and even if they could get him,he's a 1st baseman and Belt needs the at bats to improve his swing.A's lob,5,G's,18.risp,2 for 9.4 dp's.When G's play in AL parks,that's when someone like Lind could help. Posey's shot may have been a jack in another park, but they weren't playing in another park. Last year, this game would probably been a G's loss. Ian.
ReplyDeleteWell, this ain't last year either.
DeleteBochy looks pretty good with the move to bat Crawford in the 2 spot.
ReplyDeleteI don't read many sites but I don't think anyone suggested that before.
Yup, nice move by Bochy. If Crawford can contribute in the 2 hole, and his patient approach and lefthanded swing should play there, it lengthens the lineup by putting Belt down at 6 and probably 7 after Pablo gets back. Lineup after Pablo returns:
DeleteBlanco
Crawford
Melky
Pablo
Posey
Pagan
Belt
Arias
Pitcher.
Now, that ain't a half bad lineup!
Well, the one thing that impressed me about Crawford last season was that not only did he improve his contact rate, but he also walked a lot relative to this strikeouts, both signs of a hitter with good discipline at the plate. He just wasn't doing anything much when making contact. But as his grand slam showed, he could do a lot when he did connect (unlike Burriss).
DeleteGiven that, batting 2nd makes sense for Crawford once the Giants felt that he was making good contact. At that position, you don't want to give up outs via strikeouts, plus if he walks a lot, not only is his OBP boosted, typically, but hitters with good contact rates and high BB/K ratios tend to have a much better chance of having a high batting average, which boosts up both OBP and SLG. Throw in some power, and that's an ideal 2nd place hitter, who gets on base regularly but also can drive in the leadoff hitter sometimes too.
But doing that with Crawford at this point? I agree, nobody was thinking that at all. But, after they kept him out of some games, as he struggled to hit in April and early May, they must have worked on some things, and since they put him back for every start again, May 8th, he hit .280/.400/.320/.720 before the move to batting 2nd. And, of course, he has done nicely batting second since batting 2nd.
Still, he struck out 9 times in 25 AB, which is just about as bad as Belt was doing last season, but apparently their coaches saw something that said that this was real, and they felt safe putting him 2nd (BABIP was an unsustainable .438 during that stretch). Perhaps pitchers bear down on the 8th hitter, not wanting to give the pitcher a chance to contribute. It is stuff like this that human coaches can see and intuit, while the sabers scratch their heads and say that Bochy got lucky.
That's where the Bochy Baiters fall down in trying to criticize Bochy, they point out his mistakes (and we're all humans) but they overlook stuff like this where he puts players into a spot that you think "what?" and it works. That's why we humans have advanced as much as we have, there are just a lot of things going on in our noggin - and Bochy has a big one at that - that we just don't understand yet.
And people forget about why our lineup is bad now and last season - we were missing one of our best hitters. DrB, that lineup looks pretty good. That's a division title winning offense if they can continue doing the same things, particularly Blanco, the weakest link in that lineup because he's unproven, just like Vogie was last season, to start. He's striking out too much right now to justify that BA, but when a hitter is walking that much, he could take a big hit on BA and still be getting on base better than average. The only weird thing I have to say right now is that despite all the times he's been on base, he only has 4 SB. If he ran wild like he did in spring, that would really seal the deal for me on him being our leadoff hitter.
And the Sabean Naysayers will say that he got lucky, but it's like I've been saying about the Giants overall philosophy of risk mitigation, you go with the likely starters but you have reserves waiting for their chance if life happens and your starters are not doing it for you, for any particular reason (or in Pablo's case, the same reason, other hand).
OGC,
DeleteI think you may be fixating on strikeouts just a little too much here. One of the ironies of sabermetrics that often gets overlooked is that selective hitters are going to strike out more just because of the mathematics of it. Reason? You can't get to strike 3 without getting to strike 2 first! Hitters who swing a lot early in the count are going to tend to strike out less because they never get to strike two. The problem with swinging early and often it that you may not swing at the best pitch to hit hard, so you hit it weakly. Edgardo Alfonso was a guy who did not strike out a lot but was a terrible hitter, at least while he was with the Giants.
Of course, the ideal hitter is one who always swings at good pitches to hit and never swings at bad pitches, regardless of the count. There aren't many hitters like that so you end up having to give up something to get something. Hitters who draw a lot of walks are more likely to let borderline pitches go by that are called strikes and are more likely to get to strike 2 and thus more likely to get to strike 3.
DeleteIt will be interesting to see how the roster gets tweeked as the season goes along.. Maybe another reliever, 2nd baseman, or how about a corner OF bat.. I think they need to upgrade a little bit to challange the Bums and maybe the DBACKS. Brad Penny sounds good.. He'll help the bullpen and give them SP depth.. I hope they can acquire a good veteran 2nd baseman.. I like Arias but think he's more valuable as a utility player when Panda comes back.. Also, not sure if its a good idea having 3 inexperienced ML players in your starting infield at the same time.. I agree with Schulman that their biggest need might be a corner OF bat, something similar to what Pat Burrell brought them in 2010..
ReplyDeleteLG
If you bring in a corner OF bat, who sits? Blanco? Pagan? Certainly not Melky! There's not a lot of power there, but there is gap power. The Giants need Blanco's OBP at the top of the order even more than a power bat, IMO and I don't think they should sacrifice OF D either. I think the best course is to hold tight until Pablo gets back and hope Belt continues to improve and gain confidence to the point where he becomes a power bat. A heart of the order of Melky, Pablo, Posey, Belt and Pagan is not bad at all and plays to the quirks of the ballpark.
DeleteWe dropped from 162 HRs in 2010 to 121 in 2011 with the injuries. We are at an anemic 25 through 40 games. The athleticism and gap power of the current OF will be a different look for sure. Belt, Sando W/Injury, Buster and Melky are all maybe 20 HR guys. Pagan, Blanco and the MIs might make for a pretty anemic crew. Just don't see who to get and the trade chips look soft this year.
DeleteThe west coast ballparks and the pitching help neutralize opposing teams' power. The west coast parks reward teams that a. Get on base. b. Hit for a high BA with gap power c. Can steal and take extra bases d. Play great defense both IF and OF.
DeleteGiants now have players with the tools to do all 4 of those. Just need to consistently execute now. The Giants were scoring 4-5 runs per game before Pablo go hurt. Can you imagine what he would do with all the runners the Giants have had on base the last 5 games? If the rest of the team keeps doing what they are doing, this could be a real plus offensive team when Pablo is back to full strength.
I agree. This is a good ballclub. If they figure out the defense and get their mojo going, they are going to contend.
DeleteDon't even mess with this OF. 3 Rabbits out there is as good as it gets. This is as good a defensive OFers I have seen in Giants uniforms. I guess Panda is going to have to join the all-ready-in-gear-offense when he gets back. I feel an early momentum rush already in motion waiting for Pablo.
DeleteMay gives the Giants a much much needed leadoff hitter. Lock them up Sabean. All three.
Now mysteriously Timmy starts being the real Timmy, while the Giants burn off a few wins and then add the after-burner Sandoval for cruise control.
It's always great to dream, huh? I don't think this one is an impossible one though. Let's all hope it comes true.
DeleteI love Schulman's writing but I think he's off base and in the camp of fans who are blinded by HR power. HR power is nice but not necessary. And I love the HR ball.
DeleteThe key is to have an offense that is league average or better. If you look at all the saber calculations of offense, the key basis for scoring comes from OBP and SLG, which includes homers but you can't tell if the team is doing it with a lot of homers or not.
They are currently at .316 OBP and .380 SLG, not that far from .317 league average OBP and .388 SLG. And adding Pablo should get them above that, assuming they can continue doing well with the lineup that is gelling together here. Blanco really completes the offense - sorry Nate, you'll have to wait another year - and Cabrera has been a really great acquisition so far, another notch in Sabean's trade belt so far. Pagan too, at that.
Put that with their great pitching, and then they will start winning a lot of games.
And together, they are Giants. :^)
Drb
ReplyDeleteI bring it up after reading Jayson Stark saying the Giants are "sending signals" that they are in the market for a corner OF bat. Don't get me wrong, I like their OF of Melky, Pagan, Blanco.. As for who sits, Bochy likes the use his entire roster mixing and matching anyway.. Although Nate and Huff are doing a lot of sitting now because of Blanco.. I agree, they should make till Panda comes back.. Their team needs might change over time because of slumps, injury, etc.. This team has a chance to win and make the playoffs because of their pitching, but I'm not sure how far they can advance if they don't have enough power hitting.. It would be tough expect a team to bunch 3 hits in an inning against elite pitching such as Haliday in the playoffs.. The Giants beat him in a way thanks to Cody Ross's dingers. The only WS team I can remember with a lack of power were those Cardinal teams with Jack Clark batting 4th surrounded by all those speed merchants.. WS teams usually have power pitching and power hitting..
LG
Well, yeah, they usually do, but not always. I don't think there is any one single formula for winning a World Series except that you need to have two dominant starters plus a third good starter plus a dominant closer.
DeleteBochy is just being nice saying that he's using everyone. Not that he doesn't do that regularly as a manager, but he's said enough times for me to believe this: he prefers a set lineup.
DeleteBut if nobody is holding the job with his play, then he's going to use everyone until someone claims the job for a while.
If I were the Giants I would sent signals out too, you never know who might be interested in dealing. I have to think that Pagan would be the trade chip to get an OF like that, letting Blanco man CF and leadoff, and putting a homerun hitter in the #5 spot that Pagan has been sitting in. As nice as he has been there, that is not why we got him.
That said, I don't think there is any urgency to make such a move right now. The way I see it, even if you are happy with the team, as is, you still look for the edge and what we really need is another middle lineup type of bat to drive in the runs. That is clearly where we are lacking in production. So you "send signals" just to see what interest you can pull in. Probably won't make a move now, but once a dialog is started, you could always revisit it later or at least have them come back to you if they are ready to deal and want to see what we might offer.
That's why research and analysis is so much more reliable than personal observation some times. People sometimes see what they want to see or they see something that is not there.
DeleteIn this case, both Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times studied the objective of going deep into the playoffs and both found that 1) HR/power hitting has virtually no effect on a team's ability to advance in the playoffs and furthermore, 2) just plain good offense has virtually no effect on a team's ability to advance deep into the playoffs. No matter how good or bad the offense was, it had little to no effect on advancing deep into the playoffs.
Good offense catches the attention of fans. Great pitching does not really except when superlative, like Koufax, Mathewson, Gibson. People are still denying the power of the superlative pitching that the Giants have, they understand the concept that good pitching helps, but don't understand the power of having a staff that is in the top 3 in the majors. That's why the deniers still say that 2010 was just luck.
Sure, there are lucky elements, if that defaults 2010 to plain luck, you can do that to all the other World Series since 1905. And in that case, why follow baseball anymore if you think it is mostly due to luck? People just do not understand that dichotomy.
The Giants did well in the areas that they controlled, the design of their team's strengths - pitching and fielding - that enabled them to take advantage once in the playoffs. That strategy won them the World Series championship. That and their players coming through when the chips were down, when the games are played. It is that human spirit that the deniers either are ignoring or just plain not seeing. And I feel sorry for them.
OGC,
DeleteThanks.. As a casual baseball fan, I continue to be amazed reading about more and more statistical baseball data being studied and analyzed by baseball people in and out of the game.. Like you said analysis can be more reliable sometimes, but personal observation(scouting0 is good sometimes also.. Thats what the Moneyball Movie was about. I'm still learning about Sabermetrics so am not completely sold on it, but its a big part of baseball no doubt.. Even today, I watched David Ortiz hit two line drives right at Freddie Galvis of the Phils, who was playing him in shallow right field.. I bet with all the statisical data out there, teams know that if the pitcher executes a certain pitch in a certain spot they can predict where Ortiz hits the ball.. I curious if you know off hand what the study said about going deep into the playoffs? I would imagine dominint starting pitching, closer, deep bullpen, and bench.. And yes, I agree that some form of luck is involved with every team that advances in playoffs.. The 2010 Giants didn't win the WS due to just plain luck..
LG
no point in waxing poetic about vogie. he will not rest until he brings his father in law that perfect game, or at least a no hitter.
ReplyDeletefunny thing at the post, vogie says to (it sounded like baggs) "i think i still have a lot to prove" and baggs replied, incredulously, "really?!?" i woulda thought by now that vogie will never be satisfied. well, maybe if he wins a game in the ws that will change.
forgot to note the kerry wood k to retirement...that was pure class as was today's bat retirement show in philly
really wish people would stop harping on the need for a power bat...the team is being redesigned for speed and for players that can learn how to use the park...the question remains, can they resign both pagan and melky...gonna be tuff
anyone heard anything about runzler?
What gets me the most riled up is when the folks at Fangraphs dis Vogelsong's stuff and act like he's doing it with mirrors. I watch his games and I think I have a pretty good idea of what good stuff looks like. I think he has terrific stuff. He's always had good stuff. He hasn't always harnessed it, but he's definitely always had it. He's a walking primer on what can be done with the fastball. He can go upstairs with the 4 seamer or he can induce grounders with the 2 seamer or he can bust a lefthanded bat with the cutter. When a hitter has so many eye levels and planes to account for and the fastball velocity taking away the time to adjust, now THAT is great stuff and a pure pleasure to watch.
Deleteaccording to posey, his fb today had lots more movement..another reason why they couldnt hit it, except where he wanted them to
Deletelet fangraphs say what they want...very few teams have a 5 guy who fans look forward to watching
really didnt get why he was lifted...97 pitches...he didnt look tired...
I'd like to see them re sign both Melky and Pagan.. But it would be an eye opener if Pagan is re signed for more then 1 year contract.. That means he could block Gary Brown from the majors..
DeleteLG
Well, there you have it. The Cards have the greatest lineup in the history of baseball, at least according to Fangraphs, and Kershaw just completely shut them down. Goes to show that when it comes to Kershaw, it ain't just the Giants. Anyway, G's remain 6 games back as the Dodgers are refusing to lose.
ReplyDeleteYes,DrB,Pitching wins games,but only if that pitching is supported by runs.Proof?2011 G's, L.A 2012. 6-0 over WS Champ Cards tonight,without those 6 runs of support,tied at 0.Harvey Haddox took a perfect game into the 13th, lost because of no RUN SUPPORT.The only time pitching wins games without run support, is when the pitcher himself,provides the margin of victory, going yard.In'66,Braves hurler,Tony Cloninger, in a 17-3 victory over the Giants,hit,not1,but 2 bases jammed jacks,hitters got the other 9 runs. Ian.
ReplyDeleteDodgers did not need 6 runs last night and Cloninger did not need any more run support than his first grand slam. A 1-0 win counts as much as a 6-0 win or a 7-3 win. Proof that you can win a championship without a lot of runs? The 1965 Dodgers. Again, you can win a WS without hitting a lot of HR's. You can't win it without pitching.
DeleteYou still need at least one more run the opposition.You can't score with pitching.Haddix is illustrative. Ian.
ReplyDeleteYou can score enough runs with a lineup of high average gap hitters with speed. You don't have to have HR's if you have the right alternatives in the lineup, but you've got to have the pitching.
Delete'66 Orioles had Frank Robinson and Boog Powell in the lineup. They won the last two games of the WS 1-0 each. In other words, it was their pitchers that won it for them, not the hitters.
Let's see, Haddix' situation has only occured one time in the entire history of baseball and you want to site that as proof of something?
DeleteThe real key in the playoffs is can your team win the close ballgames?
ReplyDeleteYes, there will be the occasional blowout, but it is almost guaranteed there will be close games as playoff teams usually have at least two good to great pitchers to keep them in the games. All games start 0-0, so you can keep them all close IF your pitching and defense deliver run prevention.
Like it or not, the Giants regular season IS practice for the post season - one run games, torture, pitching duels, defense. Tight, taut, pitching dominated games. These games make the Giants one tough, battle-tortured team when they make the playoffs. It forges a team identity of pitching and defense hanging in every game, waiting for your breaks.
The breaks in 2010 came in the form of castoff vets (and Posey) having one incredible three-month HR streak. Not a reproducible team-building strategy, as we have seen in 2011.
But what if you added youth, speed and defense to the Giants great pitching? What if the team could manufacture runs with its speed, leadoff OPB, and gap-to-gap power. Harder to shut down a Blanco when he gets on, steals second and two sac flies later scores, all without a hit. Harder to shut down a lineup with gap-to-gap power from 1-8 hitters. That is a reproducible team skill. Remember the Giants only need a few runs with their pitching. And what if that team was young and skilled defensively and prevented even more runs.
I present your 2012 Giants: Gifted shut-down pitching, starters through bullpen. Youth galore and vets sitting on the bench. Speed and leadoff OBP - Blanco! Gap-to-gap power lineup: (h/t to DocB above)
Blanco
Crawford
Melky
Pablo
Posey
Pagan
Belt
Arias
Pitcher
Work-in-progress, you bet. Youth takes time to be forged into a team. Defensive improvement big time and injuries will decide if they make the playoffs this year. Exciting times, I think.
Or if you are like the Phillies and TX fans and still think their teams are better than the Giants because they hit more home runs? That the Giants got lucky? Well that's why they play the games. But me, I can't wait to beat TX again in the WS.
Another way to put it...
DeleteGregor Blanco: .416 OBP
Melky Cabrera: .382 OBP
Pablo Sandoval: .375 OBP
Brandon Belt: .370 OBP
Buster Posey: .362 OBP
Angel Pagan: .353 OBP
Nice.
The Haddix 12 2/3 perfect game loss was the BEST example of pitching per se without run support. Without runs great pitching is wasted. We know the dodgers didn't need 6 runs, they only needed one more run than St.Louis.I know Cloninger's 1st bases jammed jack was enough to beat the G's by 1 run. What you fail to grasp, is that Haddix is the BEST example of a pitcher losing without run support.Pitching doesn't win games,runs win games.The team with the most runs at game's end,wins the game.As a G's fan you more than anyone should know this simple fact.Good era's are nice,but without run support,just another loss.Freak has neither a good e.r.a nor a good won-loss record,and as such is clearly a major liability. Ian.
ReplyDeleteCome on, Ian! I KNOW you are smarter than this! The Haddix game was as flukey as any one game event in the history of the game. Using it to prove anything is really just laughable as is the Cloninger game. I remember a game from my childhood that the Giants won 13-12. Does that one game prove anything at all? No, except baseball is wonderful game and on any given day ANYTHING can happen.
DeleteHistory of full of teams that have won the WS with great pitching and not a lot of hitting: '65 Dodgers, '69 Mets, the Kirk Gibson Dodgers, mid 80's Cardinals and KC Royals, RJ/Schilling led D'Backs, 2010 Giants. Yeah, putting great hitting with great pitching is the Holy Grail of baseball, but pitching is the one of those two that is necessary.
Lots of teams have won the WS without great hitting. Very few, if any, have won without great pitching.
Can't answer all of Ian's commentary, so since he seems to be using examples of pitching without runs, I'll use my favorite whipping horse: the 2002 World Series.
ReplyDeletePeople like to focus on Dusty's removal as the key turning point of that World Series, and while it is clearly the point at which it become obvious, and, per this discussion, apt for the point about not having pitching, I turn back towards game 2 instead as the true turning point of the series, after all is said and done.
People seem to forget that Russ Ortiz actually costed us game 2, him and the relievers. The Giants scored 10 runs and still lost. Not only that, the Giants were down 5-0 and 7-4 and came back to take the lead 9-7, before the pitching bleed away the lead and the game. Had we won that game, the Giants would have been the World Series champions after Game 5, instead of Dusty handing the ball back to Ortiz in Game 6.
Anybody can pull examples out of baseball history to support almost any point they want to. Especially on a broad topic like needing runs scored to win. Even T-ballers know that one without resorting to quoting Haddix. But as my example with the World Series showed, just because you have a great offense going, you need the pitching or you'll lose too. It is where that balance should be that should be the crux of the discussion, not whether scoring runs are important (it is) or keeping the other team from scoring (it is), which we all already know.
As I detailed in another thread, current research shows that maximizing your chances to win in the playoffs involves basically what DrB has been saying here (and what the Giants have mostly been doing, in the face of scarce resources): having great starting pitching, a great closer, a strong strike-out oriented bullpen, and good fielding overall. Thus I agree that a team should focus on those, and based on the scarce resources, do what they can to get the offense going.
DeleteHowever, rebuilding takes years and it is not like you can really coordinate the timing of both pitching and offense. People like to talk about the window of pitching, but they forget that it takes some time to rebuild the offense on top of that. People like to use the Braves as an example but don't realize that it took them 6 excruciatingly bad losing seasons to build up the draft picks until they got Chipper Jones, which made the difference for them in the past 20 or so years. In other words, they were still rebuilding (year 6) when the Giants won their first World Series championship in SF. And it was year 11 after their rebuilding started that they won their first and only World Series championship with their pitching.
Another common team I get as a "better" comparison is the Tampa Bay Rays. They had 10 years of rebuilding before they actually started winning. Friedman took over and his first two picks were great, Longoria and Price, but Beckham isn't looking too good right now, and definitely looks bad compared to who they were chosing otherwise, Buster Posey. It might be them with the 2010 World Series championship if they had took Posey instead. And his draft in recent years are not inspiring at all, suggesting that his first two great picks were just part of the randomness of drafting, and not related to some "skill" ascribed to him. Matt Moore looked like a find, but not so much this season and they have a long term contract to give him time to figure it out, so we'll see how that turns out, still early, but not the slam dunk that everyone was clapping about when they signed Moore to that "cheap" long-term contract.
So what's the window? The Braves window was 15 years. I don't hear talk about the Rays' window, but their pitchers are not that young either, roughly same as us, for the top guys. But they don't have the closer that winning teams need (and I'll admit that we don't have one yet either). And their offense is better yet why aren't they criticized for not capitalizing on their window of pitching particularly given their stronger offense, I see zero talk about Maddon or Friedman falling down on the job on any of the major baseball analysis sites, despite this, whereas the Giants get criticized regularly.
I agree, OGC. Everytime I see somebody refer to a "window of opportunity" in reference to the Giants and their pitching I just lose it. "Windows of opportunity" are for small market teams like the A's. Billy Beane loves to talk about "windows of opportunity." What has that gotten him?
DeleteI never said jacks were a panacea,runs are,However,2 g's batters came to the plate Sunday with bases full and both K'd.At the risk of stating the obvious,had either Pagan or Belt,gone yard,the outcome may have been entirely different.Too many times this season,a jack with men aboard would have won the game for G's,only once all season did a G's jack win a game.I harken back to Pagan's 3 run late inning jack giving the G's a 1 run victory over the Mets.Yu darvish gave up several runs to Seattle,but was bailed out by the long ball power of Rangers.Giants have no long ball power and must rely on clutch hits. K'ing 12 times didn't help G's cause either.The same questions are asked by fans of every struggling team, what if? Freak has cost the G's 4 games due to his meltdown.He should've been benched before now.Hindsight's 20/20.We all hoped he'd get it together his next start.Playing virtually .500 ball won't get it done, as L.A. is playing .667 ball. As I said earlier, the G's can still turn it around, but to do so entails better relief pitching,and the maturation of the young guys on the roster. Conundrum, what to do with Lincecum? The way I see it, any MUST game for the G's this season is trying to eke out a wild card spot, and with their mediocre record,that seems highly unlikely.Not enough jacks,clutch hits and too much Lincecum.Over.500 but struggling? Yes,struggling to close within 6,or 7 tonight,of L.A. Ian.
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