The Giants staked Tim Lincecum to a 2-0 lead, but it could have been a lot more as the RISP bug bit the Giants one more time. It has to be a performance anxiety issue by now. Anyway, Timmy coughed up the lead in the 4'th with one horrible pitch to Tony Gwynn Jr. with the bases loaded and it was all over but the shouting. Key Lines:
5 Giants batters reached base twice. Brandon Crawford reached 3 times. Only 2 baserunners scored all night.
Didn't see Nate's gaffe at 2B, but it must have been horrific to witness.
Tim Lincecum- 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 8 K's. ERA= 5.89. Timmy seemed to have better stuff tonight but also seemed to lose focus in the decisive 4'th inning. I don't know what he was trying to throw Gwynn on 0-2 with the bases loaded but whatever it was, it came in soft and high with a huge "hit me" sign attached. Just a horrible pitch on a count where you ordinarily wouldn't even put it in the strike zone. One more comment: Right now, Ryan Vogelsong is a better pitcher than Tim Lincecum, I don't care what Fangraphs thinks. Most of it has to do with focus and concentration. You won't find a statistic for that.
The loss dropped the Giants back under .500 at 15-16 and 5 games behind the NLWest leading Dodgers. The D'Backs lost to drop 6.5 games behind and into a tie with the winning Rockies at 6.5 games behind. The Pathetic Padres lost to the Rockies 6-2 to fall 9.5 games back in last place.
The Giants get the day off today before a 3 game series back in Arizona where they will try to avenge the sweep they suffered on opening weekend.
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Strikes me that series came down to 3 bad pitches. Zito's careless first pitch to AJ Ellis, Kershaw's first pitch fastball to Pill and the 0-2 to weak hitting Tony Gwynn Jr. 1 out of 3 at Doyer stadium isn't the worst result in the world. It is frustrating, this team has more potential than they have shown so far. But we have to live and die on every pitch. As its been for the past 3 years of beautiful pitching and a little hope like hell.
ReplyDeleteDay off, how about a new spin: concentration, leadership and the need for some fire.
Concentration: this is MY biggest worry about Timmy, not the mechanics side. He has drifted in and out for a lot of his career. You know pretty quickly if he's on or not. His talent has allowed him to coast at times. He did not come up Big Time Timmy Jim when we needed him most last year, the Arizona games. It might be unfair to be held to such a standard, but he is our Ace, he matches up with other teams best pitchers frequently, and his struggles this year have been a deep concern. I'm a huge fan, meaning its very hard for me to criticize and maybe think critically about him, but he needs to continue to work on his pitching mechanics but maybe more importantly just has to get his head in the damn game. Vogelsong embodies Mike Krukow, a talented pitcher who got every ounce out of that talent. Most managers will take a fighter like that over wishy washy. Its also why shipping Johnny Sanchez was no big thing.
Leadership. Stand up interwebz comics spewing the Sabean loves vets have failed to notice, this is a insanely young green team. They need some guidance. The obvious candidates are Matt Cain and Buster Posey. I maintain we need something different, somebody with true fire in their belly. My example goes back, but Jeff Kent was a red ass ball buster who wouldn't back down. The Giants need an edge, too many nice guys. I was hoping Pagan would do something, but he looks more like a role player. Straw that stirs the drink.
Because when you get down, you need to keep fighting. This team, like the back end of 2011, is showing no signs of life. They are also showing an inability to step on a team's throat when they're trying to give the game away. Here we go: Pajama Boy has no control. What in God's name is Manny Burriss first pitch swinging for, with what he's seen? Nate Schierholtz gets thrown out twice, and yes the Kemp throw behind was ugly. Kangaroo court needs to bust on Nate bad. They gave away 3 outs there that might have led to a route. Pajama Boy was terrible last night. So its a bad loss. What I can take from it? The Giants need somebody to step up. No veteran leadership with Huff struggles and Freddy rehabs. And you won't get much discussion of this type either on fangraphs, just snickers. Notice I'm not striving for some perfect chemistry, I'm asking for some fire and desire to win. Don't see it right now.
You have been a breath of fresh air among Giants commentators, and thought provoking as well. Where have you been all these years?
DeleteGood point that we are on the road, facing good team, most probably lose 2 of 3, so not the worse result in the world.
Great point on concentration. My thinking on that has been that he might be more Zito/Hammaker than Rueter/Krukow, mentally sometimes (though no where as bad as Zito, just noting polar opposites). He has almost always struggled in first situations. First pro game, first MLB game, almost every first has resulted in a poor start for them, but then his Krukow kicks in and he kicks butt. The only first I can think of where he did well was his first playoff game, but it was my thought that he basically had been pitching playoff games for the last two months of the season, so that explained the lack of butterflies in that case. His first World Series game, though, was back to the pattern.
And when you think back to his bad spells, when he struggles, he struggles for a long time before he gets out of the rut.
Given his comments about contracts and the like, I have to wonder if the pressure of his record breaking contract and STAR money is getting into his head a bit. Just something to monitor.
I agree about managers wanting fighters like that, but oddly enough, both times, the manager chose the wishy-washy. Craig picked Hammaker to pitch over Krukow in that deciding 7th game, when I was wanting Krukow for the reasons you state. Same for Dusty picking Livan over Rueter in that deciding 7th game.
Leadership is a good point too, something that has been discussed the past few seasons. Clearly, it now seems like Burrell was the leader that drove the 2010 team. I've noted before that Huff didn't really take off until Burrell came around, then took it up another notch when Posey was installed as the starter and started blasting all those homers. And I would note that one moment in the season that was brought out by the players as a key moment was Edgar Renteria calling a team meeting and spilling his guts on what it would mean to him to win another World Series, crying his way to his epic home run.
DeleteI thought Posey was the clear outspoken leader too. I see Cain as the "leader by example" mode, and as you note, sometimes you need someone willing to kick some butt. Posey seemed like a butt kicker.
Posey has made numerous statements to the crowd that showed true fire in their belly. But hard for someone with barely a full season of playing time, like Posey, to feel like he has the right to take the mantle of leader, I would imagine. I also have to wonder how the broken leg affected his psyche and confidence. All his outspokenness was B.C. (before Cousins). Something to monitor, I still believe he's a leader, but the team seems a bit lost right now on leadership, and as you aptly note, this is all growing pains, part and parcel of a young team.
I totally agree that we need somebody to step up. And it can't be a bench player like Pill - some were noting his homer could portend better times and confidence re: Kershaw and LA. Particularly with Sandoval out, to me, that really leaves two players who can get the team going: Posey and Belt. And maybe a third, Cabrera. And I guess Pagan or even Blanco.
In Posey's case, he's been hitting well enough, but we would need something like what he did when he took over the starting job at catcher after the Molina trade. In Belt's case, we need him to figure things out and hit like we all think he can. The 2 K's yesterday was disappointing. Cabrera has been advancing and developing slowly during his career. He took a jump last season and has been maintaining it this season, but if he took another jump - look at all the doubles he had last season - and hit more extra-base hits, as well as convert more of those doubles into homers - so far he's regressed in that regard, though that's partly due to home park - that would help give the team a nice boost now. In Pagan/Blanco's case, we could use a lead-off guy going crazy on the other team and dictating action. Much like how Blanco was during spring training, running wild and grabbing a lot of bases and getting on base a lot. A leadoff guy doing that would energize the team.
And that gets back to your point about fire. For a team of young players, you would think that there would be a lot more energy, but so far the team has been on the blah side. The Giants need someone to fire up the troops, and energize them to do more. But yeah, don't see it right now.
And who is Pajama Boy? I missed that discussion/naming.
Pajama Boy = Billingsley
DeletePosey is very young. It's fair to say he can't just come busting back in to be the all out leader, he has to earn it. He's on the quiet leader side of the aisle though, the Giants need a barker and rabble rouser as well. Burrell/Huff did that side of it, Rento/Uribe provided the bones, and Buster did the boy wonder act.
After a month in a Giants uniform, I'd say Cabrera is a quiet background guy, and Pagan is proving to not be a good leadoff candidate. So they have to turn to Blanco. Which threatens ABs from Huff/Pill/Schierholtz. Nate is really the only trade chip, and he's not much of one at that. And you might need his hot hitting or good defense later on. Being a GM isn't easy. I think its a nice ironic twist that Sabean needs vets more than ever at the moment. I'll say this, Scutaro would look a little nicer in the 2 hole than the Riot. He's more expensive though. Definitely some shake up coming, whether it waits a month or not depends on if the Giants can tread water successfully.
Here is a scouts view of Posey: http://www.csnbayarea.com/baseball-san-francisco-giants/giants-talk/Scout-Giants-Posey-looks-worn-down?blockID=705580&feedID=2796
DeleteThe speculation is that he's worn down. And Hector's been taking on more starts at C than I thought he would. Oy!
Seems like the Giants, like it or not, might have to actually give Buster a rest on days where Hector catches, and hope/trust that whoever is playing at 1B is able to hit well enough to earn his keep.
Yeah, Pagan hasn't been that great a lead-off guy, if anything Melky has been a much better leadoff guy. Angel has been more of a ideal #3 hitter from a saber perspective, as OBP does not generate much runs from the #3 spot, but ISO and SLG does. Maybe the Giants should think more of having Blanco, Belt, Pagan, Posey, Cabrera, Arias/Gillaspie, 2B, Crawford as the regular lineup, at least for a while, and see where it gets us.
Yeah, Cabrera is definitely a quiet background guy, he didn't seem like he's very outgoing, and if I remember right, his English isn't so good either. Huff, I thought was a leader who developed from the quiet guy that he was in college, based on the Year of the Thong, but since, I realize that he is a bit like me, I can be gregarious and extroverted at times, but at heart, I'm an introvert, and so is he.
Given how poorly Pagan has played the leadoff role which we wanted him for, I see Blanco more as threatening Pagan's start times, especially with Panda out, Bochy will want Huff and Pill out there trying to drive in runs, I would think (once Huff is ready). I was looking at the above lineup and thinking how power hungry that lineup is, especially on days when Posey is resting on the bench.
Yeah, Scutaro would have been nice, but as the Big Bopper used to sing, "we ain't got no money, honey." If we didn't have the weak-kneed (or cheap) minority owners, maybe they could have accepted a lower operating profit to get one more additional piece. However, the rub there is that the Giants plans were to start Crawford and Sanchez up the middle, which would make Scutaro a very expensive bench player. The only way we get him is if we commit to him as the starting SS.
I'm actually excited over Sanchez playing 3B. That might get him up here sooner than later, he's always had a great bat vs. LHP, nice #2 hitter, and would provide some veteran leadership, though he's not an overt leader either. That would put Arias at 2B, and better, Burriss and Theriot on the bench.
The guys the Gints looked at didn't want to be backups either - Alex Gonzo and Clint Barmes. With 6MM committed to Sanchez, that has to be the first plan. Here's where it gets a bit strange, the rage over Freddy's injury. Sabean DOES have a backup plan. Its Arias, and we'll see how it goes. Personally I would have kept the Hobbit, but here we go with the 24th man on the roster issues again...
DeleteYou're surprised about Hector playing so much? I'm not. It works out to 100 games at catcher for Buster. That's why its a bold interesting move. They could have tried to trade or sign a catcher, they didn't. Whiteside and Stewart in 60 games instead of 30-40... So they went with Hector. Sanchez has struggled with major league breaking stuff and has not been able to hit lefties at all. Bochy has to have picked up on this, there will be adjustments made. Posey needs the days off, and the lineup will suffer some more. More pressure on Belt as well.
What I meant is that Hector is playing so much so early in the season. I thought that initially it would be like it was the first few weeks, but I didn't expect the push to more Hector to happen until nearer to mid-season, in June sometime.
DeleteI would have kept the Hobbit too, I have no problems discussing 24th man issues, it is just that people at other sites make them seem like life or death (many have raged on about Sabean should be fired for one decision or another regarding the 25th man). Yes, very bold move, I totally agree, to keep Sanchez, shocked the hell out of me, as I really liked Stewart and he would have been perfect at a platoon buddy with Posey, taking all the starts at C when there is a lefty (he hit lefties well) to give Posey either a blow or a start at 1B, which works because then that rests Huff or Belt at 1B against some lefties. Win-win-win.
Sanchez I'm more comfortable that he'll figure things out eventually even while playing on the bench in the majors. His contact rate has been pretty good coming up the minors, even in AAA last season (168 PA :^). Just not sure how long it will take. His contact rate went worse this season, as well as his patience, he had 3 times the walks last season in a little over half the PA. I assume he's focusing more on handling the pitchers than his hitting, plus maybe there was an imbalance in L/R aplits in 2011 vs. 2012.
Yes, there is, but oddly, he hits a LOT better against RHP (as SH) though he throws RH (obviously, as catcher), well there in fact, but horrid vs. LHP so far, and he has an imbalance of more LHP than RHP. If he does continue to get Zito and Bumgarner as his assignments, going forward, that should balance out and, if continues to hit RHP well, his batting line will increase.
And it is not like I don't think that Belt couldn't figure it out in the majors, but then we get all those ABs where he's lost and figuring things out while we have a roster crunch in the majors. Maybe we could have kept the Hobbit had Belt been sent down to AAA to work things out.
Madison and Matt are the only reason G's aren't last in the division. Base path gaffs, numerous fielding miscues and virtually no rbi's with men on base, adds up to torture. G's, some advice- play ugly on the road, your fans deserve much better at AT&T, otherwise the attendance will begin to fall off, then you'll have revenue problems. Freak teased us last night, even had an rbi. Numerous K's (Kemp 3 times) 2 straight 93 mph fastballs.I told you to cultivate a sense of humor, and that you'll need it. Nothing demonstrates that more than last night's 2nd division under performance. Ian.
ReplyDeleteI think Zito and Vogelsong has been part of that, Posey and Pablo too, also Casilla and Melky, in not being last in division. Most teams where their ace is scuffling are last in the division (like the Twins now and Mets when Johan was down). That is the beauty of the Giants roster construction and development, that we can lose a key player and still be a competitive team.
DeleteI mean, think about all the things that has gone wrong so far. Lincecum. Wilson. Sandoval. 2B. SS. Defense. Relievers. Yet we are still around .500, not that far out of 1st. Change any one of those things and we are probably only 2-3 games out. Change two, and we are up near the top.
And the Dodgers have benefited from a historic performance by Kemp in April, plus Ethier, and some pitchers overperforming in rotation, as well as more home games than us plus weaker opponents early on, they should fall back to the pack once these factors balance out. Meanwhile, the rest of their lineup has been horrible except for AJ Ellis, and that's not really that surprising, most of their lineup isn't much of anything.
This is just a bump in the road period for the Giants, things should even out as we approach the All-Star break. It feels worse because it's happening at the start instead of mid-season.
But mistakes like what we've been experiencing is related to the youth of our team, that is what happens when you don't have established, professional veterans starting for you, these mistakes happen, and because they are not "proven", that gets into their heads and you get a spiral viral effect where it gets worse and for more, before it gets better. This is what a majority of the Sabean Naysayers and Bochy Baiters been saying that they want, a younger team, but as the saying goes, be careful of what you wish for. They just never thought through the consequences of their desires, which is their wont to do.
Lincecum's performance last night wasn't good. But the process was fine (see 2011's Greinke, Zack) so he'll probably turn around.
ReplyDeleteSchierholtz was not fine. Somehow, whenever it seems like Schierholtz is close to breaking through, he gets injured or starts playing awful again.
At some point in a prospect's life, you wonder if he might do better somewhere else. I haven't quite reached that yet with Nate, but given his recent struggles, one has to wonder, because previously, most of his down times have been related to an injury of some sort, I can only recall one other cold spell without an injury attached.
DeleteI agree on Lincecum.
Interesting point about leadership, but very hard to quantify. When you are winning, bad leadership/good leadership, who cares. When you are .500, fans begin to wonder.
ReplyDeleteI think it is mainly, not leadership, but that the Giants actually have a very different team this year, than 2010/2011.
1. They are much younger, especially the position players, and we all wanted that didn't we? But the downside of youth tends to be inconsistency (instead of inadequate athletic performances e.g. Tenada). This plays out in concentration areas like steady defense under pressure, lazy base running or RISP problems. Or as Bochy put it, "Its like we didn't have Spring Training".
2. Injuries: Wilson, Panda, Voggie, Sanchez, Affeldt, 75% Buster + Timmy bad time. Fortunately the pitching depth has keep the Giants competitive with very few blow-out games. But the offense has suffered with Panda out, Posey at 75% and the in-n-out of Belt/pill/Burriss/The Riot/Arias/Huff/Blanco/Nate. The offense without Sanchez, Panda has no dingerz or veteran leadership. Posey, I believe, will emerge - but only when healthy, which may be in 2013.
3. Bochy's management. Now I think he is a damn good manager on the whole. But this year is his first with Giants youth - which requires patience and consistent support. Vets can be yanked in and out, LH/RH splits, etc. and mostly still produce (if they haven't lost it). Note that Boch often gives vets, "time to get back in the saddle", too. But young players not so much. This year Bochy has had to juggle youth, injuries, out of position players and his own tendency to just plain juggle. Plus I think he has underutilized some of the best of the new additions; leadoff speed (Blanco) and investing in the upside of youth (Belt). I think he needs to do a better job defining roles and sticking with them whenever possible. This is leadership too.
I felt from the start of 2012 that it would take the Giants and Bochy some time, 2-3 months, to find their identity as a team. Many new and youthful parts to integrate. This is the right thing to do, but it takes time. I felt the pitching would keep them in it until this happens. The key injuries have certainly made this melding process more difficult.
Good day for a day off.
I would note that with vets, you have pretty good evidence that they will hit eventually - their body of work in their long career.
DeleteWith young players, you only have the hope that what they showed in the minors is something that they eventually translate into the majors.
So is that impatience, or prudent cautiousness in the face of uncertainty? I view it as the latter, as I want to win. Playing the young guys are an investment in the future, but it is also means uncertainty in winning today.
And as I've been noting on Belt, the Giants have been investing a lot into the upside of Belt (else they would not keep on keeping him here in the majors), the problem is that he has not been delivering very consistently.
And it is much like with dogs and children, if you reward them (in Belt's case, by giving him starts no matter what, i.e. "invest" in him) without him doing anything to deserve it (and his hitting, until recently, was not deserving of reward), they will have no incentive to get better (in this case, listen to the coaches and move back in the batter's box, plus crouch less batting; I'm still shocked that he doesn't move back in the box, that is a classic way of giving you another split second before you have to pull the trigger with the bat).
His job of defining roles would be much easier if the hitters would stick to hitting the way they appear to be capable of doing. If Schierholtz had continued hitting, he would still be starting now. If Belt wasn't striking out so much and pressing, they wouldn't have sat him down early in the season. If Burriss or Theriot could only hit 700 OPS, Bochy would be happy to have either starting (and hence why Arias is getting looks all over now). So I don't think this is Bochy's fault, he has stated before he likes to have a set lineup and defined roles, but with the flux, he's had to try different things to see if he can get better results.
Great point about the team needing time to find their identity as a team. Very spot on.
Yup, I was trying to stay away from "clubhouse chemistry" cliches especially. Bonds/Kent dust ups, but we won... The Fightin' A's of the 70s, Reggie/Billie Martin clashing. All sorts of ways to peal the apple. Hard to quantify, hard to value. But we are lacking something.
ReplyDeleteAlso on the off day, lets look at some middle infielders... I will have to hang my head in shame on a couple of these:
Big Kahuna: Jose Reyes: 138 PAs, 233/321/325, 13 R, 8/12 SB, 78 OPS+
Lil Fish: Rafael Furcal: 138 PAs, 361/423/508, 23 R, 6/7 SB, 159 OPS+ (I was vehement against Furcal for injury concerns)
Defensive Backup Plans Thwarted: Clint Barmes: 95 PAs, 157/194/303, 37 OPS+ (I liked the defense and coverage. Did Sabean make an offer or was it a pursuit?)
Boston Coulda Had #1: Marco Scutaro: 128 PAs, 261/307/319, 18 R, 3/4 SB, 62 OPS+
Boston Coulda Had #2: Jed Lowrie: 301/387/473, 13 R, 139 OPS+
Mr. Burriss: 63 PAs, 259/312/259 68 OPS+
Mr. Theriot: 61 PAs, 179/217/196 20 OPS+
Mr. Crawford: 91 PAs, 218/244/333 64 OPS+
Mr. Arias: 42 PAs, 308/341/410 115 OPS+
I would say the beauty of The Riot is he can either improve or disappear, but one or the other needs to happen soon. Burriss has better stats than Crawfish, marginally! Play Arias every day Bochy!
Sabean gets second guessed, fair is fair, sometimes he makes very good lay downs.
I would expect Lowrie and Furcal to be hurt by midseason. Its been their MO.
Oh hell, one more MI, a Saber darling for years...
DeleteJamey Carroll, no longer starting SS for the Twins: 127 PAs, 218/312/264, 14 R, 3/5 SB, 64 OPS+... for 6.5MM/2 years. Sabean has his with Burriss for about a 1MM. Sure, Carroll goes back to utility he most likely will up those stats, but as a full time starter I bet he underperforms his career stats a fair amount, even without the aging factor.
Freddy Sanchez played 3rd in an exhibition game yesterday. Made 1 successful put out.
297/332/397 would look pretty nice in our lineup right about now... Take your time Freddy, come back and make it count. No more setbacks. Power of positive thinking.
I believe in "clubhouse chemistry" helping a team be more than the sum of its parts. I also believe that CC is rarer than thought. I think the 2010 Giants had that rare mixture.
DeleteTo me, Bonds/Kent and the Fightin' A's, those were not clubhouse chemistry. They were just good teams. The Giants won in spite of their differences. The A's won because of their mutual hatred of Charlie O. and his epic cheapness. That was artificial chemistry that overlooked any differences that they might have had. I liken it to slaves rising up together against the slave owner.
Yeah, lots of fortunate swings and misses. Weren't there another D-back MI who signed with them instead of, reportedly, a higher offer from the Giants? Maybe two?
I'm still against Furcal, no matter how well he is doing. He has passed 428 PA once in the past four seasons, and he's 34 YO. Not going to suddenly get healthy. Ticking time bomb.
Don't know about Lowrie, but I accept your view of this being his MO. In any case, he's never had more than 341 PA in his career, covering four seasons. And he's now 28 YO, so he was doing that during his young, prime years.
Yeah, Sanchez would look good in our lineup at 2B or 3B right now.
Everyone has their analysis(myself included)when their team struggles.It's not their losing per se.It is, however,they way the G's ARE losing.As Mulder on X-Files,said,"there's a pattern here".The pattern isn't just their inability to get runners HOME, the pattern is a severe paucity of HOME RUNS.Today,Orioles were outhit 10-5 but won the game 6-5. Here's why, every hit was a dinger.They hit more jacks today than the G's have in an entire month and most of those were by Pagan.The power outage has negated great pitching by their starters, Freak excepted. There's still time, they're far from out of it.I predict a G's win,but only if Madison gets more than the usual 2 or 3 run support. I hope D'Backs don't take out their recent frustrations v/s the Cards, on the offensively challenged G's. Yes, they're my team, but enough TORTURE! Ian.
ReplyDeleteThe lack of power analysis is very well taken. Probably not much they can do about it as long as Pablo is out, but even after he comes back, they desperately need either Pill or Belt to find their inner power hitter and start hitting the dingers. It is extremely tough to generate runs without HR's.
DeleteDr. B,
ReplyDeleteI wanted to respond to your comment towards my post listing the 6 teams in first place that don't have near the dominant pitching that we do but with all the articles you post every day, comments tend to get lost in the shuffle unless they are made right away! You mentioned that it is a small sample size and did I really expect Cleveland and Baltimore to be in 1st place at year end.
First of all, at this point in the season all we have are small sample sizes but facts are facts and the facts are that those 6 teams are in fact in 1st place!! Not to mention, if you take a look at other teams with similar pitching staffs like the Giants, you get the Angels, Phillies, and Brewers who are all underperforming compared to expectations. Those expectations were set by people who thought that building a team around starting pitching was the formula for success and even with a small sample size, those teams including the Giants are nowhere near 1st place.
I will continue to argue that missing 5 of the last 6 postseasons with this same formula is long term proof that it doesn't work. I know about the farm system and all the arguments you are going to make about this team headed in the right direction but who in our farm system is really going to make that much of a difference offensively to give this team the boost it needs so that the dominant pitching is actually relevant? Gary Brown and Joe Panik are soft hitting bottom of the lineup major leaguers most likely with maybe a 1 in 25 chance of them actually being productive top of the lineup hitters. This team is dying for middle of the lineup bats and all we draft are gap to gap hitters who at best will bat 2nd in a lineup desperate for middle of the order pop.
I don't see this formula producing a winner anytime in the near future unless Sabes lucks into 4 veterans who all get hot at the same time like he did with Huff, Uribe, Burrell, and Ross. How many games where we score 2 runs and lose or 2 runs and barely win will it take before everyone figures out that this is not the way to win ballgames? I am sick of the no margin for error lineups and pitchers having to throw the games of their lives every time they take the pearl. You obviously have an open mind or else you wouldn't have suggested trading Posey but for the life of me I can't figure out why you consistently defend this notion that we have to have 20 million dollar pitchers 1-5 in the rotation.
Pitching alone may not be enough to win championships but very few teams win without great pitching. Given a choice between pitching and hitting, I'll take pitching without a moments hesitation.
DeleteI have NEVER advocated having $20 M pitchers 1-5 in the rotation. In fact, if you will recall, I have openly fretted about the Giants putting so much long term money in pitchers who might blow out their arms tomorrow. I've been the one who's advocated for at least considering selling high on either Timmy or Cain. Not sure where you got the idea I've been in favor of spending $20M on every starting pitcher.
I think Pablo is a middle of the order bat when healthy. Posey is close, although probably not an ideal #4 hitter. I think Belt has the potential to become a middle of the order bat, but I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic that's he's going to break through. I hope the Giants are very patient with him. I also think there is some truth to the notion that the west coast ballparks demand players with gap power and speed. Problem is, if you want to rely on gap power, you need to also use the corners to force the OF's to not bunch up in the middle of the field and you also have to have more than 1 or 2 players with serious SB skills and let them run.
The 20 mil 1-5 in the rotation was an exaggeration. My point is that we have 2 studs in Cain and MadBum and at some point this year they should explore trading Timmy to make some room in the payroll for signing an impact bat or 2 to balance things out. We have good scouts and guys like Tidrow who have proven they can draft good pitchers and with this ballpark we don't need to invest 80 mil in our starting rotation to have solid pitching. I love having great pitching but it is beyond torture when this offense year after year struggles to put up more then 2 runs!
DeleteSometimes I think Giants fans in general have grown so accustomed to the lack of production that they justify in their heads that this is just how it is. Not too long ago we actually had middle of the lineup bats that would have batted in the middle of the lineup on other teams besides ours but in recent years you really can't say that. How is it possible that after one guy, BB, carried this team for 10 years all by himself, that it doesn't make sense to find another player that costs 20 mil a year and bats in the middle of our order? By arguing anything other then getting rid of Timmy, you are basically saying that the money we have is better spent on pitching.
The natural progression of any team besides the Yankees who can just spend and spend is to continuously move pieces around to acquire younger less expensive talent while maintaining a core to build around. The problem is that we have a core and it is MadBum, Cain, Posey, and Panda and everything else should be shopped around in order to find less expensive younger alternatives instead of holding on to sentimental favorites like Timmy. This offseason he could have fetched 3-4 near major league prospects in a trade plus cleared money enough to fill out a respectable lineup but instead we are stuck with a few guys who are ok major leaguers like Pagan and Melky and a bunch of young players who are 2-3 years away from consistently contributing. What is the difference between this team and what we would have had in return for Timmy on the open market plus the players we could have signed with the 20 million we wasted on Timmy?
Everyone likes to bring up WAR and other stats that make my vision go blurry but can someone tell me what Timmy's WAR is so far this year? Oh, small sample size so it doesn't matter right? This is absolutely ridiculous, how long did Giants fans cry when they traded Matt Williams? I am preaching the exact same concept except then we were too highly invested in 2 offensive players while now we are too highly invested in our pitching. Cleveland may not be in first place all year but they certainly know how to turn players into prospects and I for one wouldn't mind the occasional bad start from a 5th starter who is making 1 million a year if I knew that we had a lineup that didn't rival the Padres in ineptitude. You want great starting pitching? Take Timmy away for the rest of the year and insert anyone else and we still have it.
DeleteOne more example for you because I feel like I am on a roll. Texas is basically the exact opposite of the Giants, offensively heavy with not a lot of starting pitching after losing CJ Wilson right? What did they end up doing? They went and spent over 100 million dollars to sign an unproven pitcher just to help balance things out and how is that working out for them? How is it possible that a team with the exact opposite formula for winning would go out and spend that kind of cash on an unknown pitcher? They did it because they realized they had a weakness that needed to be addressed and were willing to overspend to fill it. End result, 3 world series appearances in a row and this year they win it, mark my words.
DeleteGoing to bed, feeling on the edge, but can't go without providing these:
Deletehttp://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2012/01/pqs-in-playoffs-first-in-series.html
http://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2012/01/pqs-in-playoffs-second-in-series.html
don't know where you got the 6 of 7 years other than you wanted to prove your point. Not really accurate to fault a strategy during the rebuilding phase while they are losing. It would be like saying that the Braves 6 horrible losing seasons was a sign that Bobby Cox's strategy wasn't working, except that he then had, like, 17 straight seasons of good teams, or something like that.
At worse, we haven't made the playoffs in 2 of the 3 years since we've been competitive. I personally would not include the first winning season, as I consider that a transitional year, but I can accept 2 of 3. 2 of 3 don't prove that the strategy doesn't work. Rebuilding a team takes many years to pull off. We still have young players who are coming up and look to contribute but haven't yet, like Belt, Brown, Joseph, Panik, and now the guys from last year's draft.
I haven't read any of your follow-ups, just your first post, so maybe something I wrote here don't jibe. Read my research. Teams getting strong performances out of their starters end up with a huge advantage in the playoffs. It is no guarantee, but it is significant.
Pato,
DeleteI don't disagree with your notion of selling on Timmy before his 2 years are up. He's going to have to come out of his funk to make that a possibility though. I just don't think the Giants are going to find the hitter you are looking for on the FA market though. Almost all teams have the jack to sign their own players to long term deals. There are usually reasons why players hit the FA market and it's not because their current team overvalues them. Do you really want to invest a huge amount of money in Josh Hamilton? How is that Albert Pujols contract working out for the Dodgers? Jayson Werth with the Nationals? No, the Giants are going to have to either grow their own middle of the order or else use their scouting acumen on other teams' prospects and trade for them.
As for the Rangers, I think they overpaid for Darvish. They will probably make the postseason and eventually lose to a team that pitches better than they do.
Oops! I meant to say how is the Pujols contract working out for the Angels!
DeleteOK, so much to cover, but I'll start with these.
DeleteFirst off, Cleveland is your shining example. Well, they went out and traded for Ubaldo Jimenez, a top line pitcher, to build up their pitching rotation. They did not turn a player into prospects there, plus, he's been nothing close to what he was with the Rockies, amazingly wild.
About Texas, what you are leaving out is that their ballpark is a hitter's ballpark, where runs score at 19% higher than other parks over the past three seasons (41% in 2011). Sure, unadjusted, they appear to be an offensively oriented team. When their 2011 results are adjusted for this hitter's park, you end up with Texas having the best Runs Allowed in the AL, and by a wide margin. In other words, Texas actually has one of those great rotations that you denigrate, and when they lost Wilson, went out and got a replacement. Their offense, on the other hand, once adjusted, fell to below league average, and they ranked 7th in a 14 team league. And their major transactions were signing Joe Nathan and buying Yu Darvish. Which is exactly what one would think a team led by Nolan Ryan would do.
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DeleteFYI, I deleted because I thought I was posting in reply to Shankbone up top about Hector but it ended up here. Removed to save space.
DeletePato, the problem I have with your comment where you've got six years of strategy is... 2006-7: last years of Barry, the pitching is getting drafted. 2008: the worst Giants team to take the field since... maybe 1985. 2009: much better team than expected because the pitching is the bee's knees. 2010: we all know. 2011: a gigantic injury mess. The offense has not been the main issue this year, in fact with a little less clankmittery and a couple pitches here or there we'd be in first place.
ReplyDeleteSo you start out with a big time misstatement. Sure, exaggerations are fun, and its a conversation, but its off base historically. Balancing the offense is an obvious need, but its easy to say, hard to do. Any trade of a major piece, be it Buster or Lincecum, would be for prospects. Maybe close to the majors, but a huge unknown. First off, under Sabean, very unlikely to want to give up the bird in the hand. Second off, under Baer, no way you give up your faces of the franchise. So I think you're banging your head against the wall on this.
Something does have to happen though, the deadball offense can't continue. There will be money available for FAs with the money peeling off, I doubt it'll be major though. A ton of the future plans depend on two players: Brandon Belt and Gary Brown. How long they take and how good they are will shake out the rest. Tommy Joseph could become a Weaver type trade chip. I doubt Sabean goes for a rental again though.
I shudder to think of the hammering Sabean would get if that Williams trade went down in the serious interwebz era of blogs and what not. Remember how bad it was in print and barstool?
Shankbone,
ReplyDeleteI respect your points but they just seem like more excuses at this point. Yes, 2007-2009 were rebuilding years and if you want to give Sabes the benefit of the doubt on those thats fine but now you are telling me that we have to wait for Brown and Belt to develop? Sounds like we are right back into those rebuilding years and making excuses for why Sabes didn't go after more offense this year!
The players were out there this offseason. It was just a matter of investing the budget properly and although at this point I am beating a mummified horse, a good GM should have been embarrassed by last year and gone above and beyond to assure it didn't happen again this year but guess what... it is happening again!
OGC,
ReplyDeleteI just perused your blog on comparing playoff pitchers to championship chess. It seems like if we only had 2 DOM pitchers instead of 3 (just Cain and MadBum without Timmy) that we would still have a good chance of winning with Voggie as our 3rd starter. Would there be a huge dropoff from Timmy to Voggie in that 3rd game? Factor in having 1-2 more runs from the offense and does that even it out?
You seem to think that adding an offensive player will suddenly add 1-2 runs per game. It doesn't, at least not in the playoffs as much.
DeleteThat is the whole point about the research Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times did on what wins in the playoffs. Two respected analyst sites, using two different methodologies came to the same conclusion: offense don't matter in the playoffs, defense - pitching and fielding - does.
My research shows the other side of that story. When you have a pitcher pitching a dominant game, it don't really matter how good offensively the other team usually is, the pitcher is in control of the results of that game. Add good defense and a good bullpen, then defense rules the day.
Unfortunately, I don't have the time or technology to check this on games during the season, but I would bet that the pattern is repeated, to a similarly high degree of success. I mean, it makes a lot of intuitive sense that if a pitcher pitches a dominant game, your team usually wins when the other pitcher pitches a crappy game, right? And people do understand that there are pitchers who are skilled enough to pitch well pitched games at a high percentage of their starts. This is of huge benefit to the team having those pitchers in the playoffs.
Given that, sure, the hitter you get to replace Lincecum will help you win games during the season and even in the playoffs. But hitters can and will be shut down in the playoffs. Do you remember Bonds' rep before 2002? Disappears in the playoffs. And how often is the headlines about a nobody on the team who suddenly is the hero? Like Cody Ross for a recent one, Gene Tenace for an older one?
As I noted in my post, there are no guarantees with this strategy, with the 2011 Phillies being a good example. If it were, it would be pretty obvious and everyone would be trying to duplicate the strategy. But here's the reason I saw for why the Giants beat the Phillies in 2010: we had 4 ace-type pitchers, and they had 3 aces plus Blanton. That was our tipping point, because when ace faces ace, you basically get a standoff, for the most part (I'm sure if analysis went down deeper, for individual pitchers, there is probably some edge to someone, but generally a coin flip on who wins).
The way I see this whole uncomfortableness with the Giants offense is two-fold. First off, most people love the homerun and big scoring games. Few people enjoy the well-pitched games unless it is a no-hitter or few-hitter. Secondly, this tendency is exacerbated by the fact that SF Giants baseball is mostly known for home run offenses, from Mays and McCovey to Bonds to both Clarks to Bonds again. Sure, there was Marichial and Perry in the early years, but basically after Perry, there was really nothing comparable until Cain and Lincecum (and now Bumgarner). And I understand this because I grew up thinking of Barry Bonds' 2000's type stats on the back of my baseball card.
But the research backs up this strategy of pitching first as a strategy.
That said, I've been saying for a number of years now that we will need to contemplate trading away some of out pitching at some point and getting a Dan Haren A's pile of prospect bounty. It is the Bill Walsh theory on players applied to baseball: get rid of the player one year too soon, but more importantly, get a pile of near ready prospects to keep the good times going.
DeleteBut that is hard to do with players that your fans have grown to love and embrace. However, as you noted, he's done it before with Matt Williams. And, given time, I think he would do it again.
Lincecum would have been a nice target to trade off this last off-season, depending on the package, however, there were too many mitigating factors in doing such a bold move. First off, you didn't have Cain signed yet. At that point, we may have felt comfortable that Cain would stay (though a lot of fans were crying in the streets that he would leave due to the offense), but if we trade Lincecum and Cain leaves, the whole pitching strategy falls apart. Plus, Cain's agents would have gotten more knowing that Lincecum had been traded.
Secondly, our rotation was in flux this off-season. While we could expect good things out of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, there was a lot of risk for variance with Sanchez, Zito, Vogelsong. We might have three viable starters, but it could have ended up with only one. Could Vogie repeat? Could Dirty and Zito recover from their injuries? Sabean did the prudent thing and traded the one question mark that was worth anything and got an average position player back, but younger and with upside. Had Sanchez been healthy and pitching well, I think we would have gotten more, but that's fate sometimes. The timing wasn't right to trade Sanchez the previous season for much the same reasons for this case.
Thirdly, we do not have much depth in starting pitching. Our best had risen already or failed. Surkamp was pretty good in the minors, but he's a smoke and mirrors type of pitcher, and those have a very poor success rate of making it to the majors. And he was hit pretty badly in his stint with us. Yet, he's the only one that maybe we can bring up and rely on. We did pick up Hacker and others during the off-season, but we all know that they can't replace Cain or Bumgarner (in this scenario, we traded off Lincecum) adequately.
Now, we hopefully picked up some pitching as well as hitting in the trade. So that would mitigate this issue, but no prospect is ever a sure thing, and just because the pitcher appears ready for the majors doesn't mean he'll succeed once he gets there, Homer Bailey being a good example of that recently (or much of the vaunted Dodgers pitching prospects, consistently rated above the Giants during the 2000's, for the most part, yet we are the ones with the homegrown rotation).
So Lincecum could become ideal for next off-season. He would have one more year on his contract, and could sign an extension as long as the team is willing to pony up. Teams have gotten good packages from teams before for one year of a great ace (Johan would have been a great example if the GM had traded with NYY or BOS, instead of waiting and then forced to accept the Mets poor package). We should have a better idea of which pitchers might be reaching the majors soon, as well as any pitchers we get in the package. I'm expecting Surkamp to do well enough to hold a spot in the rotation and Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito, Surkamp isn't that bad a rotation, though I would note that this would put us at a disadvantage should we meet with a team with a stronger rotation.
But sometimes you just have to take that risk when you are at risk of losing a valuable asset, like a Lincecum, whether via free agency or injury.
It's easy for me to say this, but if I were GM, I don't think I could pull this off, it would be hard to separate my feelings for the players and saying this is the best move for the franchise.
I should add that I like Surkamp as a prospect and think that his good K-rates at the higher levels bode well for major league relevance and a job as a back of the rotation type of starter eventually.
DeleteBelt is here, right now. Let's see what happens. Gary Brown could possibly be here in September. Everything is getting rushed, and now fans are clamoring for more experience. To me, you can't have it both ways. Either bite the bullet with the youth or rush into more established vets that end up sucking because of the aging process. If you want to call that an excuse... OK. My point with the pitching is you never know what you get until you get it. The speed with which Cain, Timmy and Maddy rolled up will spoil an entire generation of fans. This is success beyond the Giants wildest dreams.
ReplyDeleteWe're not privy to the inside dope. We can make educated guesses. The Giants trusting their farm is a huge story for me. You saw it with them not getting Alex Gonzo or Clint Barmes because they insisted on Crawford being the starter. You saw it with not bothering to get a backup catcher who could actually hit. The other factor is money, there is only so much of it. Sure, all of us wanted Beltran, and seeing him hit bombs right now really makes that sting. Still, the ball rolls the other way, we might be in first place.
Long season, I'm not making excuses, I'm telling you to take a longer view of the club, with an eye towards what we've already got instead of what we might go grab. Two big time free agents in the next two years: Josh Hamilton and David Wright. They only have a chance to be free agents because of real or perceived flaws. Yes, the Giants might need to make a move like that. Yes, they might need to trade Lincecum. What's he worth right now though? Not going to pry Jurickson Profar off the Rangers, that's for sure.
I disagree with your statement that players were out there this offseason. Every single free agent had big time downside to go with the upside. Its all about risk management. That being said, Sabean might have to leave his comfort zone sometime in the next 18 months. A good place to start is to go big in the draft with a HS hitter with true upside. That would be leaving the comfort zone.
I forgot to write "in a trade" in that what we might go grab "in a trade". Think about this for a minute: for the past 3 years, since the Rios rumors, Sabean has been saying to all GMs Cain and Timmy are off limits, don't bother. Double edged sword here: he goes dialing and says what you want for Timmy, what kind of offers is he getting with the velocity publicized and the stats screwed so far this year? Offseason? This is moving to monday morning qb levels. And that's the problem, you need your players. Look at Johnny Sanchez value, never near what Cain or Timmy's is/was. The Giants waited because they needed him (and lets not make any mistake - he came up huge when it counted in 2010) - and then his value deteriorated. Bird in the hand problem.
DeleteI agree with Shankbone here regarding hitters. All of them had big question marks, both Pujols and Prince because the odds are high that you will be saddled with their contracts for up to 5 years with little production, and then the rest had all sorts of question marks. In Beltran's case, it was not a matter of whether he is a good hitter or not - he is - but whether his brittle body can deliver for us over a full season. We all saw how hamstrung our teams were with Bonds and Durham regularly being out for one thing or another, Durham especially hurt us because he would rarely be bad enough to go on DL, but usually lingered for a long while playing subpar ball until he was healthy again. And the rest were just too many negatives, Kubel and that other Twinny, not worth the money, not even close to me, $10M per and for multiple years, and they were probably the best of the bunch after the above.
DeleteAlso, while no prospect is a sure thing, Brown did very well in the minors last season and most rankers had him relatively high on their Top overall prospect list. And Panik did very well in the AFL. And I think that Belt at minimum can be a good middle lineup bat for us, as is, right now (like a Mark Reynolds), my only thing with him is that I want more than that from him, he could be on par with a Joey Votto if he can solve his strikeout problem, he would hit, walk, hit for power, hit homers, steal a few bases plus play good 1B defense.
And, given all the problems that people have with free agents, assuming we can sign Lincecum to a long term contract, I would rather we spend all our money on our homegrown players who want to stay, than on free agents who their team probably rightfully let go, because the money WILL be there if the team thought that they could not let the player go and his contract is reasonable.
We have the pitching. The hitting is developing. We already have a core middle of lineup in Sandoval, Posey, Belt. And it looks promising for Brown and Panik up top. I would rather keep that going, as long as players want to be here long-term, and the doctors think that they can be productive long-term.
Also, good point that Lincecum's value is probably lessened should he be put on the trading block. But there will still be some team willing to take a chance on him.
DeleteAnd yes, their success is beyond the Giants or anyone's wildest dreams. Still, part of the reason it happened was because of their focus on getting good pitching in the draft with their first pick. For example, Bumgarner's success seems to be a factor in why Pato is willing to trade Lincecum. However, had Sabean followed this alternative strategy of balanced development, Bumgarner would not have been drafted in the first place. That draft, almost every Giants fan (including me) wanted an offensive player and there were plenty of them available with that pick, and opinions on Bumgarner was mixed among the people who make mock drafts. Yet, if you look at who was selected after Madison, even with Jason Heyward selected just 5 picks later (and he warned off everyone that he was going to college; his parents are college professors; he just wanted to be picked by the Braves as one of their scouts befriended him during Little League), Bumgarner was the right one to pick.
Yet, had we had a GM who wanted to be more balanced and was happy with Lincecum and Cain, and maybe Sanchez (at that point in time), he would have gone for one of the viable bats that were available at that point in the draft.
Yep OGC, I remember the Bumgarner pick. You capture the mood of the time pretty accurately. I was baffled by the pick of MadBum. And there were definitely questions about him. He was not a slam-dunk, sure-thing future ace.
DeleteBut, yep, here we are now with stud pitcher, but also really lamenting what has become a chronic problem with the bats.
Also, OGC, I would not include Belt in the core middle of the line-up hitters. Not yet. I very much want him to succeed. But he has not shown it.
DeleteI think Pablo is a decent enough #3 hitter. (I'm not damning him with faint praise, but rather comparing him with the top 30 hitters in the game.)
Posey is more of a #5. Maybe even a #6.
And Belt currently is a #7. And not a real good one at that.
Belt realizes all that potential and things improve in a big way. Far from a sure thing. His future is very much unwritten.
The Giants could have also signed Cain much sooner instead of dicking around until 2 weeks before the season started which would have allowed them to trade Timmy at that point. There were at least 3 very good pitchers that were traded this offseason and all of them got quality prospects in return (Gio, Latos, Cahill... ok maybe he isn't very good but they sure got a good return from him). Knowing Sabes, had they done this they would have used the money on multiple players instead of just one big splash which I also would be ok with.
ReplyDeleteI like the Bill Walsh analogy but it may be too late for Timmy. Yes he looked a lot better his last start but then he fell apart and his pitch count was around 100 at 5 innings which is unacceptable for a 20 million dollar ace. Ubaldo was traded last year after sucking for the entire season and although the return wasn't great, the Rockies cleared his salary which allowed them to sign Cuddyer. If they had 2 other aces up their sleeve like the Giants would, that move could have been enough to put them over the top by balancing them out.
The problem with our farm system is although I like players like Brown and Panik, they will not bat in the middle of the order. I am not in love with the HR but also you have to realize that without speed, with a team that K's a lot, and no power, runs will always be hard to come by. It doesn't take a lineup like the Rangers put out to get it done either but we need at least 2 out of the 3 in the heart of our lineup to be elite and right now Pablo is the only one that barely qualifies. Even Pablo isn't an ideal middle of the order bat unless he has 2 other heavy hitters around him as his high water mark is probably 25 HR and 90 RBI's which isn't good enough on its own to carry a lineup. Posey would be a really good 6 hole hitter but much like when we had Bengie, we are forced to bat him cleanup because there is nobody else. Had we signed Cuddyer, he would be starting at 2B for us right now and bat 5th giving us a bare minimum middle of the order. Instead we struggle to fill that 5 hole and find someone to play 2B who can hit their weight making it that much harder on Posey who is already hitting out of order at cleanup.
Let me run this by you guys: What positions in the batting order are most important from 1-8? For me I think the 3 hole is the most important spot followed by cleanup, leadoff, 5th, and then 2 hole. If we had one legitimate power hitter to bat 4th it would allow us to get by with Posey and Panda in the 3 and 4 holes where they would be more effective although still not ideal. Right now the order without Panda is a nightmare but even with him we aren't filling the 4 most important spots in the lineup properly. In 2010 a big part of why we won was Torres was playing out of his mind (one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball that year), Huff had a great year in the 3 hole, Posey was able to produce at cleanup, Burrell held down the 5th spot, and Freddie did an excellent job in the 2 hole. All 5 of them were producing in the top 5 spots in the order where as now we have a mediocre leadoff hitter in Pagan, either Melky with Panda healthy or nobody in the 2 hole right now, Panda or Melky batting 3rd and doing a slightly better job then Randy Winn (1 HR and 10 RBI's), Posey doing a below average job at Cleanup and nobody worth a damn batting 5th. You can't expect a lineup constructed like this to consistently put up runs. Add Cuddyer in the 5th hole and at the very least with Panda healthy we would have something similar to what we had in 2010.
I am in love with the HR. We don't have nearly enough this year. I think realistically it is almost as hard to get a legitimate HR threat as it is an ace now. My point is the open market is insane - Fielder and Pujols - or flawed - Cuddyer and Willingham. The Giants have spent some time in the past few years overpaying the middle market players to underperform and slink away - Rowand, Alfonso, Renteria, Tejada in lowering amounts of hurt to the pocketbook and the yearly rosterspace. You take risks of regression, clank mitt compromises and don't get the premium put it in the bank 35-40 HR to boot. It wouldn't shock me if Cuddyer or Willingham had 30 HRs, but it also wouldn't shock me for them to hit 240 with 15.
DeleteWith regards to batting order, a 5th hitter would be nice. A couple placesetters would be nice as well. I agree the cleanup roll isn't the ideal one for either Posey or Pablo. Cuddyer looked like a nice bet, but he is no sure thing, and the hurt on the back end of that contract is significant. We've done that route.
Everybody likes to throw out Bill Walsh or Branch Rickey on the trade em early. I'm just not sure about that. I'll throw up Jeff Kent, Will Clark, Tom Seaver - cherry picks all, but there are only so many premium players in the game. I think the Giants are in a pretty good position with Timmy, and I doubt they'd ever think of trading him anyways, so its a mental exercise, not a reality. The way some fans are turning on him may reinforce his Zito fears about long term deals. So I have to counter on this: people have been badmouthing him and telling him he couldn't do what he's done all his life. Timmy's my horse, I'm sticking with him to the bitter end. And I bet Brian Sabean and the RDF do as well.
And Pato, before you start in on any counter arguments, go watch this real quick: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae34qjaGOao
DeleteShank, cherishing 2010 is one thing.
DeleteBut we're talking about 2012 now. And 2013. And etc. The issue is the team we have now. We all have a different interpretations of where this team is. But I think we all can see that we have real, true problems with the offense. These problems are almost certainly not going to solved with what is in the farm system. They definitely won't be solved anytime soon with the farm system.
So, where to do we go? FA or trade.
I love Timmy. I also love Krukow. You get where I'm going. They have to be able to do it on the field. And if even if they CAN do it on the field, if I can get more value for them in a trade, it's smart to do just that.
So, let's not get all sentimental about Timmy. Timmy is the one who has been steadfast in his commitment to not signing long-term with the Giants. (And good for him. If he wants to test FA, by all means, he should.) But, as Timmy thinks about his future with or without the Giants, the Giants need to do the same.
For the right deal, I wouldn't hesitate to trade Tim. But, let's not sell low. No point to that.
It might be viewed as sentimental, but that wasn't my point. You get a guy who performs on the highest stage at the highest level, you had best step back and evaluate. What is a lousy month or two? He is not even 20 months removed from that and its trade time? To me that is insanity. I'll take the YOUNG and PROVEN player, thank you very much.
DeleteI'm telling you, the ownership and the baseball guys: no chance of trading Tim. The value just isn't there. Go look at the top ten prospects today. You have a couple Bucs pitchers, Harper, Matt Moore, Profar, Machado. Most teams are rebuilding. The only teams who I can see wanting Tim are the Sox/Yanks - I hate their prospects. The Rangers and the Cards. Shelby Miller? Profar, OK. I bet TX hangs up with a quickness.
You're not going to get that value. You're not getting the move from the Giants. Its ride it out, this is barking up the wrong tree for a number of reasons. Most of all because you give up on this kind of talent early it bites you in the ass.
Totally agree with your assessment of the situation. For the reasons you list, and more, Lincecum is not going anywhere.
DeleteI am saying that he shouldn't be untouchable.
I'll also repeat myself and say that he is no longer an elite pitcher. He's a very good one. (And very good ones are hard to come by.) Let's just make sure that we assessing Tim's talent as it is today. Not as it was in 2010.
At the beginning of last year, I said that Tim was not as good a pitcher as Kershaw. And I took a lot of heat for it from Giants fans. But now that belief is universal. I think a lot of Giants fans at the time were blinded by their love for Tim.
I don't want to be cold and calculating. But I do want to be realistic about the talent we have and the methods that it can be leveraged into more talent.
There's an old saying, "pitching is 75% of the game." Another one is "good pitching will always beat good hitting."
ReplyDeleteThose statements are enduring because they are true.
Good pitching overall beats good hitting overall. Pitcher has all the control. Sets the tone. The pace. He decides how he's going to try to beat you. Hitting is reactive. If a pitcher is doing his job, hitting his spots, it's very difficult to hit. And most hitters will have trouble.
ReplyDeleteHowever, a hot hitter can have success against a hot pitcher. You see it all the time where a pitcher throws 8IP, gives up 6 hits and 1 run. But one hitter gets 3 of those hits.
But we focus the saying about good pitching always beating good hitting because that is what wins the game. The hot hitter is only 1/9th of the story of the game. Where the pitcher is 9/9ths of the story of the game.
The good pitching always beating good hitting needs to have that context.
And yeah, I realize that is a micro-analysis of a macro-argument.
ReplyDeleteThe Angels suddenly have a desperate problem at catcher. Opportunity for some highway robbery here?
ReplyDeleteFor those complaining about lack of dingerz please go to 2099 - 1959. The Giants are built around pitching and defense - run prevention and average offense. And their offense has been better than 2011 already. The hitting is going to have to come home grown, no FA hitters are coming to ATT unless with an overpay 9more Rowand anyone?) or trade. And the Melly trade has been a very good one for the Giants - warning they got a good hitter in return - P-duk.
ReplyDeleteTimmy discussion can wait until after 2012 season. The Giants are in a great position due to the Timmy for Two contract. 1. They get to see him perform this year. 2. They get to see another year of prospects perform. Surkamp? Runsler? Hembree? Blackley? At the end of 2012 if good Timmy, then extend him or trade him. If bad Timmy, then trade him or extend him for a lot less. Note the Giants are already going to save 12MM+ on not re-upping Wilson.
I'm not sure that you can say the Giants are built around defense this year. Many players out of position and playing poorly.
DeleteWatching the game tonight: Pill didn't catch up with the Montero's fly ball in the 5th. Almost any leftfielder would have caught that. 3 runs later...
And then Posey is NOT on 1st for Goldschmidt's grounder up the middle in the 7th. Why wasn't he there? (The throw would have been close, though Goldschmidt would have beat it. But, where was Posey???)
33 Errors so far, not including the one error Crawford has tonight AND the 2nd error he was not charged with.
We're 20% into the season. I'm not sure we're a good defensive team anymore.