One way I like to try to get a handle on the baseball draft is to look at a list of ranked prospects from a source like Baseball America, not necessarily to focus on any one player, but to get an idea of what kind of players may be available around the spot where the Giants are picking. This year, the Giants have the #20 overall pick. I think that's a pretty good spot to be in. The slotting system in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement sets a much more rigid bonus for players drafted at various slots. While there is a steep dropoff in slot bonus from #1 overall to #20, there is not such a drop in player talent. This draft is very weak at the top but quite deep with players ranked deep into the supplemental round being close in talent to #1 overall. As you will see as we work our way through the first few rounds of the draft, there are very interesting players who should be available clear down in round 5.
Let's take a look at some players who may be available at the #20 overall pick based on Baseball America's Top 200 Draft Prospects ranking:
18. Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State. Stratton's name has been rising up draft boards of late. He's got a solid pitcher's frame at 6'2", 200 lbs. His fastball sits at 91-93 but regularly touches 95. His slider is rated as a true plus pitch and he can also mix in a curveball. His season line for 2012 is 10-1, 2.16, 95.2 IP, 19 BB, 115 K's, so you can see that he has strikeout quality stuff with great command. Definitely fits the profile of the type of pitcher the Giants look for.
21. Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson. Shaffer is looking like a premiere bat coming out of college. He was projected as a top 2 round pick coming out of HS, but a hamate fracture dropped him to the 25'th round. His batting line this year is a robust .351/.481/.600 with 9 HR's and more walks(47) than K's(39). He is 6'3", 210 lbs so still has some room to fill out his frame. He has the arm strength to play 3B but may move to first and could play either corner OF too.
22. Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern. Roache is an internet favorite on the strength of his 30 HR season in 2011. He does have some warts though. He struggled in the Cape Cod League last summer. Then, early this college season he suffered a wrist fracture while diving for a ball that required extensive surgery to repair. This is not a simple hamate fracture! He's going to try to make it back for the Southern Conference Tournament but we'll see. There have been doubts about how his swing would hold up in the pros even before the injury. The Giants are well known to put a lot of stock in the Cape Cod League, so I think Roache is a longshot for the Giants at #20. If they are looking for power with this pick, Shaffer might be much better all around hitter if he's available.
23. Ty Hensley, RHP, Oklahoma HS. Terrific size at 6'5", 220 lbs. Fastball sits at 92-95 and touches 97. His 12 -6 curveball is actually rated higher! Command needs some work. BA mentioned a need to work down in the zone more with the fastball, but I think the Giants like pitchers who work up the zone. If you were to draw up a prototype of the type of pitcher the Giants hunt for in the draft, you would get something that looks a lot like Hensley.
24. Matt Smoral, LHP, Ohio HS. 6'7", 225 lb lefty with a low 3/4 delivery and sweeping arm action reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner. FB is low-mid 90's. Has missed essentially all his senior season with a metatarsal fracture. I could see the Giants being in love with this guy but they might not want to draft somebody they haven't been able to scout because of the injury.
25. Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M. Naquin is a speedy OF who would fit right in with the Giants last two first round picks, Gary Brown and Joe Panik. He is having a fine junior season hitting .397. He has a slender frame and a controlled inside-out approach at the plate, so probably does not have much power potential. His throwing arm is rated as the best among college OF's. He does not play CF on his college team, so some MLB scouts see him as a tweener. While I think he is likely to have an above average MLB career, his ceiling seems very limited and I have to say I would be disappointed if the Giants picked him at #20.
Others: 29. Lucas Sims, HS RHP. 31. Zach Eflin, HS RHP. 32. Pierce Johnson, College RHP. 33. Joey Gallo, HS 3B(the premier HS power hitter in the draft). 37. Walker Weickel, HS RHP. 40. Nick Traveiso, HS RHP, 41. Barrett Barnes, College OF. 42. Mitch Haniger, College OF.
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For me, Stratton and Shaffer are the two guys I most want at #20, even though I realize they both might well be chosen by the time our pick comes up. If so, I wouldn't be disappointed with Hensley. If all three are gone, I'm less optimistic.
ReplyDeleteGreat list of suspects. The two guys who might just drop that many like: Marcus Stroman RHP Duke at 10, the Lincecum comps run deep, but his size might scare at the last minute. David Dahl, HS OF from Alabama with a sweet lefty swing, is becoming the forgotten man at 12.
ReplyDeleteThe other 2 HS position players that I keep looking at are Addison Russell, SS/3B from FL at 28 and Stryker Trahan, C from LA at 27. Russell has gotten into fighting playing shape, if he can stick at SS with plus RH power he could be a steal. Trahan is a lefty bat, freak of nature who can run well as a position player, insanely well for a catcher. His value starts at catcher but his plus LH power and his arm could also profile in RF.
Don't know if the Giants will look at prep position players, its not their MO for sure. But that is where the value will lie, if they don't want to grab a pitcher. I've seen Roache's wrist surgery compared to Cliff Floyd's, ie complicated. It may take significant recovery time. Of all the college guys, Shaffer is the only one I'd want at 20. Hensley has been my Matt Cain comp forever, and his pops (2nd round pick himself) is playing the draft to perfection, he is going into the high 90s a bit to give scouts a tease. Unlike Giolito who was throwing for the gun constantly and got hurt. I think Hensley would be a very solid pick.
Another one is Lance McCullers. do you think he might fall to us at #20. I really like Victor Roache, it will be the first true power hitter from college that the giants have drafted in years, he was considered a top 10 pick at the start of the year.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any info on Damien Magnifico, apparently he's touched 102mph.
Magnifico has a history of arm problems and has not translated his velocity into on-field success. The Giants have drafted guys like him in the past, but not in the first round. If Magnifico is stlll there in rounds 4 or 5, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Giants draft him.
DeleteHe has gotten a lot of press and the Giants tend to fly under the radar, do don't hold your breath on him.
I'm not enamored by Lance McCullers. He has a name and a radar gun reading, but not a whole lot else. If they are both available, I would prefer Hensley.
I would not draft Roache in the first round due to injury, Cape Cod struggles and scouting concerns about his swing. 30 HR in college don't mean a whole lot more than 30 HR's in the PCL, honestly. If you want a college power hitter, I'd take Shaffer in a heartbeat.
I don't expect Giants will pick a good hitter at #20. History tells that.
ReplyDeleteHigh School picher is the best selection maybe.
I love Lance McCuller Jr's very high upside and Zach Eflin's high potential as Starter.
If they go elsewhere, I 'll disappoint.
But if we have a chance to get Courtney Hawkins, we have to take him.
DeleteI'm so tired of many low potential hitter like Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Burris.
They are all pathetic!
I think that Gary Brown will surprise a lot of people.
DeleteSo what about the Giants history tells you they won't draft a good hitter at #20? Buster Posey? Way too soon to give up on Brown and Panik.
DeleteThere are several HS pitchers I would be quite happy with and none of them are named Lance McCullers. My personal choice would be Ty Hensley but Eflin, Sims, Weickel or Traveiso would be fine. I think the Giants have earned the right to be trusted with picking the right pitching prospect.
DrB - Here's one vote for making people register a handle. The anonymous trolls are coming out to play lately.
ReplyDeleteThat would be nice, but quite a headache chore for the administrator. That's why I opted to allow anonymous comments.
DeleteIf anybody, with or without a handle, comes looking for trouble, I'll hit the button on them. Thankfully, I have not found that to be necessary more than once or twice yet.
DeleteI do strongly encourage people to get handles and become part of the community. It's a lot better than multiple anons talking to each other or the themselves and you can't figure out which.
Any word on where Alex Bregman ranked? I like his bats and he can probably play as a power hitting 2B.
ReplyDeleteyour recap on Hensley makes me excited and I hope he is there at 20.
Thanks Doc
Not sure, but I think Bregman might be in the round 2 discussion.
DeleteI know this will never happen, but i would be absolutely thrilled if the giants got ty hensley in the first round and then managed to get cody poteet in the second. Two high school pitchers with decent upside, that way in a few years when we need pitching again, we could have them plus possibly crick or blackburn... Although with the whole new money thing with the draft and the fact that the giants dont draft high school players in the early rounds often, i really dont see this happening
ReplyDeleteFactoring in the slot bonus constraints, I think the Giants may take a HS pitcher in round 1 and then go strictly college after that. They have been quite good at finding hidden gems in the HS ranks who are willing to sign for slot down in the draft though, so I there might be 1 or 2 of those that pop up later on.
DeleteThat would be great to grab some high-upside guys, as our farm seems to be lacking them
DeleteIt's easy to say "oh, they should go high risk, high reward" in the draft but a lot of those high-upside guys never get to their upside. There is a place for high floor guys too. I also think the Giants have some high-upside guys going for them. Tommy Joseph is the 3'rd youngest player in the Eastern League and has enormous power potential. Crick and Mejia have a lot of upside. I think Ricky Oropesa has a pretty high ceiling. I also think Brown and Panik have a higher ceiling than they are getting credit for right now.
DeleteI agree that they shouldnt go for the high-risk/high reward guys always, but i feel that they need to take a few more chances, as most of these guys will just be filler or average starters, nothing too special, whereas a high risk player could end up being another bumgarner, but then again it could be a alderson
DeleteThe Giants have tended to play if safe with their first round money and take their risks later in the draft and pay less for them. That's how they've come up with prospects like Tommy Joseph, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, guys who all had flaws but had upside.
DeleteI would classify Bumgarner and Posey as high ceiling guys, but also fairly low risk, but you aren't going to find Poseys and Bumgarners in the bottom third of the first round either.
Thanks Drb, I'd be happy with either Stratton, Shaffer, or Hensley in round 1. Either one of those HS pitchers you mentioned would be fine.. Doesn't seem to be much depth for college hitters.. An intriging pick would be HS 3rd baseman Joey Gallo.. He has a 94 MPH fastball.. If he can't hit, he can always turn to pitching.. He does have a committment to LSU.. The last time the Giants selected a HS position player was 2007 N Noonan, W Farley..
ReplyDeleteLG
It's a terrible year for college hitters.
DeleteThe Giants taking a starting pitcher in the 1st round may not be cut and dry afterall.. There might be better value taking a HS position player depending on their signability.. Its been the Giants MO to draft a power hitter in the early rounds the past few years.. I've been checking out Joey Gallo, Corey Seiger, and Courtney Hawkins as possibilies.. Joey Gallo (3rdbase) is a premium power hitting and power pitching prospect (94MPH fastball).. Corey Seiger - 6'3" 190 SS-3rd baseman-LH- has been impressing scouts hitting dingers to LF and CF. His brother is a rookie for the Mariners.. Courtney Hawkins 6'3" 215 OF - a great athlete with a powerful swing.. Its tough to narrow down their pick because its in the middle of the round, which makes the draft intriging..
ReplyDeleteLG