Well, THAT was disappointing! Matt Cain on the mound with a 5-1 lead ought to be almost an automatic win, but not this time as the Giants offense failed to take advantage of opportunities for a whole lot more runs and the Nationals keep pecking away at the lead until it was gone. That the walk-off winning run scored on a play that gets made 99% of the time makes it even harder to take this one. Key Lines:
Justin Christian- 3 for 5, 2B, SB(1). BA= .308. Hope this gets Christian some more PT as he certainly has earned it.
Ryan Theriot- 3 for 4, Sac. BA= .275. Theriot getting 3 hits out of the 2 hole without scoring or driving in a run tells a lot about why this game ended the way it did.
Melky Cabrera- 2 for 4, 2B, SF. BA= .356. An XBH for Melky!
Angel Pagan- 3 for 5, 3B. BA= .293. Don't know what to say for this one except nice game for Pagan. He got left at 3B with no outs at one point.
Matt Cain- 6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 2.62. A QS, yet I'm sure Cainer is not happy over giving up 2 dingers in the 7'th inning. I will say that those throwback unis fit Matt Cain to a T. Man, he sure looks good in them! Talk about Field of Dreams!
Sergio Romo- 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.75. I can see why folks are calling for Romo to be the closer, but you have to get to the ninth with a lead for the closer to have any value.
Santiago Casilla- 0.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. ERA= 2.84. Casilla has a 94-96 MPH fastball, yet threw leadoff batter Moore something like 4 straight curveballs, the last of which Moore stayed back on just enough to drive it to the wall for a double. I'm thinking you've gotta mix up your pitches just a bit and force the hitter to respect the heat. The rest of the inning pretty much defies description.
Dodgers are playing the D'Backs out west. As things currently stand, the Giants are 1 game behind the NL West leading Dodgers and are tied with the Mets for the second Wild Card playoff spot.
The Giants move on to Pittsburgh for a weekend series leading into the All-Star Break with Barry Zito facing Eric Bedard in game 1.
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people are really blaming craw and belt for not turning the dp?
ReplyDeleteIt was not a slam dunk DP, but Crawford makes that throw 99 times out of 100 and Belt digs that out at least 95 times out of 100. I don't know how you account for that except dumb luck, and bad at that.
DeleteI'm not blaming Belt at all...
ReplyDeleteGreat to be a Giants fan.
ReplyDeleteBut:
Crawford's D lacks. You can't be a SS in the majors and not make that turn with a decent throw. It wasn't super difficult. And Craw did not come close. Let's start being realistic about what Crawford is and is not.
I was surprised when Wilson went down and Romo wasn't named the closer. Not that Casilla can't bring it. But, he blew up in every conceivable way tonight. Not the first time. Romo's ERA+ was 699 earlier this year. I know he's loading up in righties. But, that is an insane number. I don't know how people can question whether he should be given the opportunity to close.
Affeldt's numbers are good. But he is not a guy I want in there under pressure. And (well battled topic here) for our $5 million, I want a guy can get an out without surrendering a run, coming in with two out and the bases empty.
Tyler Clippard can pitch. That's a closer. I miss Robb Nen.
Giants got it handled to them. They deserved it. Nats look tough.
Not sure about who's being unrealistic here. Crawford still has a positive UZR which is more than you can say for the majority of SS's in the NL. Personally, I'll stick with the stats and live with the mistakes.
DeleteI'm not sure who made the decision for Casilla to throw 4 straight curveballs to the leadoff hitter. Was that what Casilla wanted to do or what Buster called for? I guess Casilla is ultimately responsible for what he throws no matter what the catcher calls for, huh? I blame Casilla for giving up the leadoff double. The rest of the inning just spun completely out of control from all angles.
At any rate, I'm willing to give Casilla a bit more leash, but if he's going to be the closer, he has to have more faith in his fastball than that.
The people who are being unrealistic are the ones who claim Crawford is a stellar defender. Outstanding defenders make the plays when it counts.
DeleteFantastic for the UZR. But if he's taking away hits with range, he's doing it across the board. Meaning sometimes they are coming in crucial situations. And sometimes he's doing it with 2 outs, no one on, and the pitcher coming up.
Some say Bill Mazeroski (got the Pirates on my mind) is in the Hall for one home run. When it mattered.
Crawford has to do it when the chips are down. Or, who cares.
Well I care for one. To just dismiss statistical excellence because of a few plays that stick in your mind is, well, just mindless. I am confident that if you looked at plays Crawford has successfully made and not made in clutch vs non-clutch situations, they would be evenly distributed. Always remember, there is no such thing as clutch!
DeleteThere was plenty of blame to go around for losing that game.. When the offense doesn't take advantage of so many opportunities, it gave me a bad feeling till the very end even when they led by 1 run going to th 9th inning. Collecting only 5 runs on 15 hits is not an easy thing to do!
ReplyDeleteThe bullpen had a rare bad game.. I still like their late inning arms like Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, and even Casilla. I like Hensley too, but he walks too many guys, 20 walks in 30 IP.. I was hoping Hembree could help by midseason, but he developed an arm injury according to Baggs. My concern with the bullpen is while they still have quality guys, they are missing their regular closer and are not as deep as they've been the past 2 seasons... I hope Sabean acquires a Right handed power arm to help them out..
LG
One possible solution would be to use Penny as the 7'th and/or 8'th inning guy with Romo as the closer and move Casilla back to kind of a rover like he was last year before Wilson got injured.
DeleteI still see Romo as being a bit shaky against LH batters even though his stats against them are excellent. I just think with more exposure that weakness is going to start coming out.
More exposure? I mean, if I'm reading the stats correctly, lefty batters have over 250 plate appearances against him. They hit less than .200 against him. The only thing is, he does not strike lefties out. But he gets them out. Consistently.
Delete250 PA' over how many seasons now? I'm willing to give Romo a chance at closing. I think over time we would find that he's not as good against LH batters as his current small sample size suggests. What we don't know about that sample size is the quality of the LH batters he faced vs who he would have to face as the closer.
DeleteI think that Romo is our best relief pitcher, but I think that's his value as your relief ace that he can come into the most important situations and get it done. Being a closer is an easier job you almost always start with a clean inning and with a lead. Would you rather use him in the 7th with bases loaded protecting a 1 run lead or in the 9th with nobody on and a 3 run lead? The first obviously
ReplyDeleteIt's not about Casilla, Crawford, the offense, the defense, Bochy...
ReplyDeleteIt's that one team every season is going to have ownage, period. The Nats have it.
Be thankful it is an East Coast team.
It's been a thrill of victory/agony of defeat season. After the 4 straight shutouts I was as euphoric as I've ever been as a Giants fan and right now it's hard to remember being more despondent.
Deleteim not despondent...that place is a bandbox.
Deleteknow who was great playing in a bandbox? the guy who bought a custom chopper using the giants money he never earned...cuz he couldnt hit in a real park
if the nats do to the giants at the belle, what they did in their park...i will respect them
till then...they are a band box team
and harper makes me ill
was totally in awe watching trout...cant stand watching harper
I could be wrong but I think Nationals Park is actually a neutral park overall, but it looks like their players have discovered a jet stream to right-center and have been practicing aiming for it.
DeleteBill James Handbook says that the park is neutral for runs and most other things, except that it is low on triples, walks, and strikeouts, plus also low on errors in the infield, which given the neutral on errors, suggests that they are high on erros in the outfield.
DeleteThat's 3 years of data. Last season alone, in addition to the above, there was a lot more homers, almost all by the Nats, so that's good statistical evidence that the Nats have figured out how to hit homers in the park, while the visitors haven't.
I really like Trout too. I'm enjoying his having more success (currently) than Harper. Because Harper is kind of a tool. Damn talented one, though.
DeleteThere are a lot of people out there who thought Barry Bonds was a tool too. I'll take a tool like Harper on my team any time.
DeleteBarry Bonds is a tool.
DeleteAll I'm doing is stating a preference of one young, emerging superstar over another young emerging superstar based on perceived personality.
And really, wouldn't you rather have a Bonds with the personality of Woody?
I am really not interested in personality except as it affects on-field play or clubhouse chemistry that affects on-field play of others, which, BTW, would be extremely hard to quantify.
DeleteI guess where others see tooldom in Harper, I see a passion for the game.
As for comparing Trout to Harper, that's a bit like comparing Mays and Aaron. You'd be happy with either one or both on your team. I just think Harper has a lot of room to grow into his body whereas Trout looks maxed out and may have to watch his weight in the future, not that a maxed out Trout is anything bad.
Well, that is why they call it a home park advantage, each team learns the idiosyncracies of their park and take advantage of it.
ReplyDeleteCrawford, really, still people down on his defense? Look at his Professor video on YouTube and be in awe! That he's been positive on defensive metrics, the only reason to bellyache about this mistake is because that person clearly don't believe in him and will take every chance to complain, much like most Sabean Naysayers. (Really, Rowand, let it go...)
I think the real reason the Giant's don't use Romo in the closer's role is that 1) I think all the public knowledge about his arm problems are just the tip of the iceberg and 2) the trainers been working overtime on him just to keep him going. Clearly, Bochy knows how to run a bullpen, he was known for it at San Diego, he has developed a LOT of good relievers as a manager both in SD and SF, you don't have a career very positive record in 1-run games unless you know how to manage that situation and you can't do that unless you have developed a stellar bullpen and run it well. A bullpen is KEY to winning 1-run games, and Bochy is the master of that, at least in the NL the past around 20 years he's been managing. So if Romo being a good reliever is obvious to you, it is extremely obvious to Bochy. Yet he don't use him more, so there has to be a logical reason for that.
Hence my point, we get occasional news about Romo's elbow, plus I recall an interview where Romo said that he's going to throw until his arm falls off, if he gets the call, he's going in, you just put the dots together. And this has been a regular thing as well, it is not like Cain, who had his in his first pro season then we don't hear about it again, Romo is shut down every year lately, at some point in the season.
Good point about ownage and east coast, I was thinking the same, I would rather get swept by the Nats given that we swept the Dodgers. Lose one game in that series, that is a 2 game swing in the standings.
And this is going to be a rough stretch of road games, but luckily the Dodgers are mostly on the road too, so we should be close and trading taking the lead over the next couple of weeks. And this is just one bad series, all teams will have one, good ones, like the Giants have been, have one and move on and start another winning stretch. With Pablo heating up, I see this as a blip, the offense will start to work better with him hitting for power from the 5th position.
I don't see how Christian don't get more starts, Blanco has been hitting poorly for a long while now, maybe Bochy goes with a platoon with the two. I think that is why Schierholtz has not gotten much play, despite Blanco's struggles, because he's also lefty and can't play leadoff. Plus, when Bochy starts playing someone and he gets hits, he's going to play more.
I get the feeling you're right about the precarious health of Romo's arm. With that in mind, I'd like to see him in AT LEAST a shared role as closer. Play the situation. Watching Casilla from the start (and probably from when he was warming up in the pen) it was pretty clear he did not have it last night. If you have one closer, you tend to ignore that information. You just say, "Well, he's the guy."
DeleteComparing Crawford's D to Tejada's (or anyone else's) is silly. Crawford is here to play D. That's his value. (Tejada was here to hit...that was the silly hope, anyway.)
So, yeah, we can sit here and say, "Wow, Craw's defense is relatively good." Relative to Tejada. Mine wouldn't look all that bad, compared to Tejada. I'm talking about choking. I'm talking about failure to make the crucial play. Crawford must do it. Or his value is limited in helping the Giants win.
Sorry Kelly, it's not just Tejada's D that Crawford's is better than. If you go look up the stats, the EVIDENCE, Crawford's D is good compared to most other shortstops in baseball.
DeleteSincere question: Does UZR penalize Crawford for that throw to end the game? An out was made. No error was recorded. That was a poor throw when just a less-than-average one would have completed the DP.
DeleteMy larger question is do any stats record and penalize for that type of thing? If they don't, then allowances should be made for the things Pato and I point out.
Yes, UZR would penalize Crawford for that play. That's the beauty of it.
DeleteGood to know that.
DeleteDefinitely want Crawford to succeed.
I am sure there will be refinements to UZR in the future, but right now, I am convinced it is the best overall measure of defense. It not only accounts for errors and plays that are turned into outs vs hits, but also things like preventing runners from taking extra bases either by cutting off balls in the gaps or keeping balls in the IF or with a strong throwing arm.
DeleteOne area that may be impossible to quantify is the symbiotic relationship between pitching and defense. For example, do Matt Cain's fielders have a high UZR because he induces soft contact more than other pitchers, or is Cain's BABIP low because his fielders have a high UZR?
Another area that is starting to become blurry is how much is UZR impacted by defensive positioning vs speed, athleticism and skill.
Blanco has earned Bochy's patience this year. In addition, he has historically had an OBP well above his batting average, so he draws a lot of pitches--one of the duties of a leadoff man--and walks. So far, in the scant stats we have for Christian in MLB, one doesn't see that pattern. Finally, at such time as Huff returns, someone has to go down to the minors, and Christian, who was called up to take Huff's place, has been the logical candidate to go. I think, OGC, that's why we haven't seen more starts for Christian.
ReplyDeleteI agree that some platooning now might be a good idea, and that Burris be the candidate to go at such time as Huff reappears. By that time, of course, the Giants might have made a trade or trades that would change the factors in this discussion.
The fact that there are Giants fans who are so blindly in love with Craw that they don't realize how bad he is makes me sick. That ball he bounced to Belt to end the game is his average throw on routine plays. He should thank Belt every game that he doesn't have twice as many errors because of all the crappy throws he makes. Arias is just as good with the glove, has a better arm, and makes much louder contact more consistently then Craw. Craw wouldn't be starting on any other major league roster right now. In fact, he isn't even starting on this roster since he has been platooning with Arias ever since Panda came back. Weird how they would go right into a platoon coincidentally at the same time that Panda gets back... almost like they had been using a platoon for a week or so before Panda was hurt and then went right back to it when his bat was back in the lineup.....
ReplyDeleteBlindly in love with Crawford? I bet your pardon. Just go look up the UZR defensive ratings for NL Shortstops. That is not blind love. That is evidence based love, my friend!
DeleteGet out your barf bag, Duckie, if Craw-love sickens you, because you're going to see lots more of it. Fangraphs estimates that the Giants have had over $6million of value from him so far; and since his hitting has so far this year improved each month--his June OBP was .313, about where Theriot's is and Freddy Sanchez's was--one can reasonably predict that their return on the dollar will keep growing, as he becomes reliably respectable at bat, boosting his current WAR (0.9 Fangraphs, 1.3 Baseball Reference)still more. In less than a year, the 141 games he has played in 2011 and 2012, his BR WAR is exactly 2, which over 162 games one can extrapolate to 2.3. BR expects a 2+ player to be a starter.
DeleteAt the moment, Crawford makes rookie mistakes in the field and at bat, since he has played just over 1100 MLB innings since coming up from AA ball last year. Again, one can reasonably predict that these will diminish pretty fast over time. As to Pato's declaration that Arias fields as well, throws better, and hits harder, I assume (for lack of any stats to back any of this up) that we are getting simple eyeball evidence, from a guy whose lost bet with Shankbone gives him a residual stake in Crawford's mediocrity. I'll trust the numbers instead.
Sometimes I wonder if you guys actually watch the games or just check the box scores after and base all of your opinions on them. As for the bet with Shankbone, evidence is pointing to me winning that bet since Craw is clearly in a platoon with Arias. That platoon started before Panda got injured and has continued once he has been back. The bet was clear, if Craw went into a platoon before the 40 game mark that meant he lost his job. That was my argument the entire time which caused everything to blow up out of proportion. Everyone voiced their opinions at the time claiming that it wasn't a platoon, just a rest for Craw but it is obvious now that it was a platoon the entire time. Based on this new evidence I will be expecting an apology from Shankbone and 2 tickets to a future Giants game.
DeletePato,
DeleteI do watch the majority of games on TV. I can only speak for myself, but what I see agrees with the UZR scores on Crawford and his D. He makes some glaring mistakes but gets to many balls and makes many plays that league average SS's would not make.