It was rockets red glare, bombs bursting in air in Nationals Park early this morning as the Giants came out on the wrong end of a slugfest. You had to feel good about the game when Madison Bumgarner took the mound in the bottom of the first inning with a 3-0 lead in his back pocket. For awhile, it all looked good but the Nationals hitters went to work the second time through the lineup and sent one missile after another into the RF stands and the Giants just couldn't keep up. Key Lines:
Melky Cabrera- 2 for 4. BA= .354. Melky's hit parade continues. Maybe it's just me, but he seems to be settling for mostly singles lately.
Pablo Sandoval- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(7). BA= .313. Pablo continues to be the most dangerous hitter in the Giants lineup and a solid choice for starting All-Star 3B despite the ballot stuffing.
Madison Bumgarner- 5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 3.27. Not much to say about this one. Bumgarner appeared to have good stuff and good command as evidenced by his K/BB. He did seem to like certain locations and when the Nationals figured out where they were, they went looking for them. Credit them for being able to take advantage. Not sure how many of those would have gone out of AT&T, but then, Pablo's first inning shot probably would not have either.
With the loss, the Giants fell 0.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West with the Bums playing later in the day as are the D'Backs.
Matt Cain will try to be the stopper facing Ross Detwiler tomorrow evening.
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Glad I didn't get up at 8:00 to watch that mess. Every team has it's Achilles Heel - maybe the Nats are the ones this year.
ReplyDeleteNats have a serious team. A lineup that goes Harper, Zimm, Morse, Desmond can do some damage. Their rotation is very competitive with the Giants.
DeleteAgreed, it is their rotation that scares me the most.
DeleteAgree their rotation is good.. It'll be interesting to see if the Nats follow thru with their plan of limiting Strasberg's innings pitched for this season, since he's coming off Tommy John. I forgot what is was, either 160 or 180 IP..
DeleteLG
I would think that the Nats would have to, he has never pitched more than 120 IP (roughly that in 2010) in a pro season, not sure what his capability was in college, so I would think that 150-175 IP is the upper limits of what any team would prudently push him to, given that he's just off from TJS. (Krukow advocates no more than 25 IP seasonal jumps, though Giants busted that totally with Lincecum, Cain, Dirty, and Bumgarner and so far so good; that would put Strasburg at roughly 150 IP limit)
DeleteI would expect to see them not pushing him as deep into games in the second half of the season, in order to stretch out his innings among his starts, that could theoretically put less stress on his body, maybe have a long-relief (ex-starter) guy specifically to take over in his starts. That way they can stretch his remaining innings into more start and deeper into the season, plus be prepared for the extra bullpen usage using that strategy.
But given the climate in today's baseball, outside of the Rangers and Giants, most teams take the cautious route in pushing their starting pitching, following BP's lead on PAP. However, BP recently published that PAP does not seem to coorelate to injuries; while they published that, I've not seen a mea culpa for trying to lead all of baseball to that strategy, in fact, hammering their mighty pulpit with a big stick ("if you don't follow what we say, your pitcher's arms will fall off" and Bill James took them on, saying that their theory was a big bunch of hooey in his book on pitching) and babying their pitcher's arms. There is a lot of CYA in the MLB.
And even the Giants shut down Lincecum early in his first season as a starter, I think Sanchez too, but I recall that maybe he was already having arm issues at that point. They treat each pitcher individually, based on what they were seeing with each, rather than follow a specific number, which never made any sense to me, anyway.
In any case, BP has never been very consistent or good in their recommendations, they strongly urged that Sabean should be fired in their book on the 2010 season (yeah, that season) and while they beat up the Giants for punting first round draft picks, noting the success of picking Matt Cain, their eminent expert on draft picks recommended that teams avoid high school pitchers with their first round picks because of his analysis of the draft, so they are not very coordinated or consistent with their recommendations, their right hand not knowing what the left is doing. In any case, the Giants have done OK for themselves with high school pitchers, given Cain and Bumgarner, and we'll see about Wheeler (and Alderson and Boof are the downside of that, but 40% success is actually extremely good).
I really wonder if Morse is using steroids. He's been caught before and he has turned into a star in his thirties.
ReplyDeletePretty much a waste of time wondering if players are using steroids, IMO. Still not convinced it makes a heckuva lot of difference over a good conditioning regimen. If there is a way of beating the tests, you better believe a lot of players are still using.
DeleteJust because someone turns into a star in their 30's doesn't mean a whole lot in my book. I Vogey using? Was Torres?
There is a lot of hysteria over steroids that's made it a much bigger deal than it should be.
And a respected sabermetrician, Eric Walker, has research Steroids and basically came to the conclusion that "There is no evidence that steroid use has altered home-run hitting and those who argue otherwise are profoundly ignorant of the statistics of home runs, the physics of baseball, and of the physiological effects of steroids."
Deletehttp://steroids-and-baseball.com/
I keep getting back to the fact that Willie Mays and Hank Aaron were not particularly big men, even for their day. As far as I can tell from my readings on them, neither so much as ever lifted a weight in their life. Players back then were afraid of strength training because they thought it would make them "muscle bound" or decrease flexibility. Willie Mays and Hank Aaron somehow managed to hit over 1400 HR's between them.
DeleteAaron was famously known for generating all his power from his wrists, as he was as skinny as a stick when he was very young, then he was very stout when he was older.
DeleteLooking at their career stats, kind of like Pablo, start out with lower HR power, but then when hit 23, the power kicks in and they are the superstars of their era. Pablo, unfortunately, has been hampered by physical problems (some of his doing in 2010, hamate surgery in 2011-2), so hard to tell exactly how good he will be going forward, but as DrB noted at Fangraphs and I concurred after my analysis, Pablo definitely has 30-40 HR power, but he just has to stay healthy and fit to do it.
This is a tough roadie playing tough teams in the heat.. Cain needs to be the stopper but the offense has to step up too, scoring 3-4 runs a game won't win many games in small road parks... Team not built to win slugfest..
ReplyDeleteThis will be an interesting month with the trade deadline looming.. This team is in good position in the standings and may need only incremental upgrades in the bullpen and maybe RH outfielder as Baggs speculates.. He also wrote Shane Victorino as being a good acquistion.. I would be happy if the "Flying Hawaiian" became a Giant for the stretch run. Their outfielders are in a slump and Bochy doesn't seem to have a good option after the starters. I agree Melky has been hitting a lot of singles lately.
Carlos Lee was traded to the Marlins.. Maybe its just me, but I think the Dodgers should be concentrating on upgrading their pitching staff instead of hitting, especially starters if they want to make a good playoff run.. Can pitchers like Capuano, Harang, Billingsley continue to pitch as well in the 2nd half? I'm hoping they don't get Cole Hamels..
LG
Giants offense on the road has been fine, averaging 4.60 runs per game. It is the pitching that has costed the team on the road, giving up a lot more runs, though a large part of that was related to very poor defense, as there as been 26 unearned runs given up on the road vs. 9 at home, or 0.65 unearned runs per game on the road vs. 0.21 unearned runs per game at home. That will get us a better record going forward as our defense is now much more firmed up than previously, as we would have a much better record on the road if not for the errors.
DeleteGiants might not be built to win slugfests, but our pitching is built to avoid such slugfests most of the time. 14.7% of the games so far had runs allowed of 7 runs or more (if one goes with 6 runs or less as regular scoring games). In the NL, 21.2% of the games were 7 runs allowed or more (and remember the Giants bring down that average, so other teams are at 21.7%). On an 82 games basis, that's roughly 6 less games where the Giants give up slugfests (they have 12). That's related to our staff's ability to both throw high PQS games AND avoid low PQS games, or disaster games, where these slugfests occur.
They are also built to win games where we take the lead, with a very strong bullpen (a hallmark of the Sabean era) to hold the fort. So keeping the lead is a very significant trait of our team, important to Bochy's ability to win the 1-run games, which arguably is more important to our overall record than having the ability to win slugfests. There are a number of teams that can win slugfests but are in the lower division, near or in the cellar, because they do not have the pitching to win with that slugging team.
Few teams can win all types of games. No team has the money or resources to do that indefinitely. The key is to consistently win more of the games that you can win, are designed to win, you pick your competitive advantage and work that angle. Pitching clearly is that competitive advantage. The Giants success the past three plus seasons are evidence that they can do this well, and bodes well for our future, as well, barring a lot of catastrophic injuries.
What few have realized is that the Giants the past three seasons have delivered a top 3 team in least runs allowed in spite of the fact that there has been one starter's spot that has not been very good every season (Randy Johnson in 2009, Wellemeyer in 2010, Zito/Sanchez in 2011), we generally had 4 starters spots where we got great performances but one starter's spot that has stunk pretty badly. So while Lincecum doing poorly is bad for the team overall, the way it is built and historically has worked out, the team can survive that.
That's why there are so few slugfests given up by our team so far, there is only one real hole in the rotation each season, whereas most teams have a couple of holes in there, resulting in the slugfests that most teams have than we do.
As I've been saying since 2007 or 8, pitching is the focus that any team should do if they want to win more consistently in the playoffs. So I'm glad that the Dodgers are focused on hitting, that might improve their team overall but not like improving their pitching would, and that's probably more important for them since they pitch in an extreme pitcher's park, clearly and consistently, unlike AT&T, that's a home park that should scare off free agents too. That's how Chan Ho Park was able to make so much money, he's been a horrible pitcher in any other park other than Dodger Stadium, where he is an ace.
DeleteThey have a 2.59 ERA at home, 4.01 ERA on the road. There is a reason that Capuano and Harang have not done well for any team lately and moving from team to team like a journeyman pitcher. Harang had a similar split for the Padres and he'll probably get a good to great contract from some desperate team next season, but he will revert to his pumpkin away from pitcher's parks like Dodger Stadium and Petco.
Billingsley, however, is doing about as could be expected. He was actually considered better than Cain when they were coming up, with Cainer always looking worse in comparison, but whereas Matt has lifted his game to a new level the last couple of seasons, Chad has been hanging his pitches and worsened since his early success, he has roughly been as good as Zito has been for us (when Barry has been healthy) from 2009-2012.
But regression on Capuano and Harang is to be expected, they have ERAs as good as (or better in Capuano's case, 1.83 ERA) than Kershaw at home, who I would considered the best case scenario for any LAD pitcher. He has a 2.49 ERA career line at home, 2.57 ERA right now, so it would be unlikely that mid-30's pitchers like Capuano and Harange will be able to continue 1.83 and 2.80 ERA, respectively, in the second half of the 2012 season in LA. Both have career numbers similar to what Billingsley has been delivering in recent seasons, and he has a career 3.76 ERA at home (though he has the oddity of a better ERA on the road, so he apparently hasn't figured out how to pitch well in LA). That is the mean I would regress them to, and that would be a huge drop for them there.
Another good sign that they have been performing over their heads is BP's analysis of the standings: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
The standings show that LA is playing above their heads relatively, they are really more of a .500 team right now, so they should be desperate to trade and upgrade, because they should fall as the season progresses. Meanwhile the Giants are about where they are expected, and given Bochy's ability to win 1-run games, maybe exactly where we should be. That is why the Giants are right now at 76.0% odds of making the playoffs, second only to the Nats, so they are currently viewed as the team to beat in the NL West at the moment, but obviously trades will change that equation.
And while Arizona is considered our equal, per their 2nd order win percentage, since we are 5.5 games ahead, we are more likely to be the division winner at the moment. And that basically assumes that Lincecum will continue to be as bad as he had been, and does not incorporate Belt being as good a hitter as he has been in June.
I think MadBum's next step up is to learn how to pitch effectively outside the zone. He pounds the zone like no other pitcher and when he is on as with the Cincy game he is devastatingly tough and consistent - thus the off the charts BB/K ratios. MadBum has said it often, he just wants to beat you. He is good and he IS stubborn. He believes no batter should be taking hard swings against him - and he backs it up.
ReplyDeleteMadBum seems hittable at times, almost "bad luck" BIPBA, exactly because he is always pounding the zone. MLB batters can run into pitches, they can bet on a part of the zone to hit in, they can "get lucky".
But there are times when deception can make the difference. Hitters can be put away outside the zone ala Timmy. Cain has learned how to do this, especially up above the zone. So maybe MadBum can develop to pitch outside the zone when needed, to mix it up. I think he has the potential to be a great pitcher if he can add this to his already dominate repertoire.
Bumgarner was pounding the low outside corner against RH hitters betting they wouldn't go the other way. They did and that played into the ballpark for the Nats. Cain needs to pound the outside corner against the LH hitters and the inside corner against the RH hitters. If he goes outside against the RH, he needs to make sure if he misses, it's off the plate.
DeleteDoc B, thanks for the game feedback, I did not watch it today. I hope Cain can make them miss a few.
DeleteTo MS's thought, Big Daddy Reuschel used to pitch that way, getting a lot of strikes and strikeouts, but having those games where BABIP works against him. He basically "taught"/told hitters that his first pitch is his most hittable pitch that the hitter was going to get, then each strike after that will be tougher and tougher to hit. And most games he just did really well, but then there will be those games where he looks like a batting practice pitcher.
DeleteI've heard/thought that Madison's delivery was suppose to provide some deception to the hitter, is that still true? And originally, the Giants were trying to change his mechanics but gave up after a few starts because he was struggling so much, and after he went to his original mechanics, he was lights out. So doesn't that mean that the Giants should be worried about his arm now? I don't recall hearing anything about that since then.
Bumgarner's delivery looks the same to me now as it did in his scouting videos before he was drafted. I'm not enough of pitching mechanics expert to know if there are subtle changes, but it's basically the same.
DeleteDrB, that fits in with what I've read about his delivery. The worry was that his cross-over motion, which provides some of his deception, if not most, is a motion that results in future injury at some point.
DeleteWhere's Bacci? Not up so early today?
ReplyDeleteI haven't even gotten on his case about anything lately.
Deletei worked yesterday, setting up an office...by myself.
Deletedidnt see the game
zonked today and staying in
i dont like the bandbox parks of the east...they should be condemned
I agree that Melky seems to be swinging for singles these days. Odd. I wonder if he's hurt.
ReplyDeleteHe has been in an extended "slump" in terms of power since June 20th or so (Angels series), roughly around 100 OPS, and had been sliding downward since early June, down to 130 first three weeks or so, versus nearly 200 ISO previously, so it has been going from bad to worse since early June.
DeleteDon't recall exactly when, but I recall him having a hamstring problem a while back, resulting in him missing games. He missed 3 games for that I think, June 8-11, and while his SLG is OK since then, 145, that is because of his homers. Before that date, 25.3% of his non-homer hits were for extra-bases, but after that hammy, 12.5% of his non-homer hits were for extra-bases, and none for triples, which was huge part of his game before. His leg is clearly still affecting his running for hits, and hopefully he can rest his legs some during All-Star break, though since he is starting there, he won't be totally off his feet. Still, hopefully will help. Maybe DrB can give us a view into hamstring recovery scenarios.