The Giants turned a tight pitching duel into a slugfest in extra-innings and came out winners to assure a win of their first series of the eastern road trip. Key Lines:
Justin Christian- 0 for 6. BA= .185. This is a deceiving line as Christian hit the ball hard several times.
Melky Cabrera- 2 for 5, HR(9). BA= .354. The Melky Hit Parade continued unabated. The HR was a godsend as it looked like Mike Minor might be cruising to a 1-0 shutout until Melky's dinger tied it in the 6'th. The ATL fans are getting on Melky pretty good and he's giving it back just as good.
Buster Posey- 3 for 4, 2B. BA= .308. Buster now has 3 consecutive 3-hit games. He came out after his 3'rd hit, a questionable move, but I'm guessing he has to catch the noon game tomorrow too.
Gregor Blanco- 1 for 2, HR(5). BA= .255. Another ex-Brave. Blanco atoned for striking out with the bases loaded with a 3 run dinger in the 11'th that essentially clinched the win.
Brandon Belt- 0 for 3, 2 BB. BA= .243. Right now, Belt is having trouble getting the bat off his shoulder. I don't think he took more than 3 swings all night. If you take enough pitches, you are going to draw some walks, but I'm really not sure how much that helps the team despite what the statheads and Beltists say.
Brandon Crawford- 1 for 1, HR(2), BB. BA= .240. Crawford fouled a pitch off his knee and went down like he's been shot. For a minute or two, it looked like the Giants might end up with a pitcher playing SS! He pulled himself up off the mat and when they tried to throw him another cutter inside, he pulled it into the RF bleachers for a 3 run HR in the top of the 11'th inning. How great is that? I was ready to write Crawford off a few games ago, but he's had much better looking AB's in his last couple of games.
Ryan Vogelsong- 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 2.31. Typical gutsy performance from Vogelsong facing a potent LH leaning Braves lineup.
Jeremy Affeldt- 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.57. Affeldt's effort enabled the Giants to extend their bullpen deeper into the game than the Braves.
Javy Lopez- 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 3.72. The BB was intentional to PH Pastornicky as the extra runner did not matter in a tie game in the bottom of the 9'th. Lopez threw a lot of pitches to Bourn before striking him out, but I thought he maybe should have pitched the 9'th too with all the LH hitters in the heart of the Braves lineup.
Santiago Casilla- 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 3.34. Casilla blew away the first two batters in the 9'th, but then gave up a double to Freeman and a HR to McCann. He seemed to be afraid to throw the breaking ball to the LH batters. Not sure if that was Whiteside's call or his. Giants may need to think about a trade for a closer for the stretch run. Broxton? Lytle? Street? Stay tuned!
The Dodgers beat the Phillies 5-3 in extra innings to remain 3 games behind the NL West leading Giants. The D'Backs topped the Reds 7-1 to remain 7 games behind in 3'rd place.
Madison Bumgarner goes tomorrow against Tim Hudson. Huddy is always very tough on the Giants, but I also like Bumgarner facing that Braves lefty leaning lineup too.
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Grant Brisbee, of McCovey Chronicles, wrote a scathing, excoriating critique of Bruce Bochy's recent comment that right now, Hector Sanchez in the lineup with Buster at first base last night gave the Giants a better chance to win. His main argument was the difference in OBP between Sanchez and Belt using full season stat lines as the reference point. One of his big points was the fact that Sanchez' higher BA represents just 4 more hits per 100 AB's.
ReplyDeleteWhile I think the point is arguable, He did conveniently leave out some details that might cast the question in a different light:
1. While it is true that the difference in BA accounts for 4 extra hits per 100 AB's, there is a bigger difference in hits per PA. You see, for the same number of PA's, Sanchez will get far more AB's which makes the difference right about 7 hits per 100 PA's. Extend that over a full season's worth of PA's for a starter and you get something 45-50 more hits out of Sanchez.
2. Walks from the 7 hole in the lineup are not as valuable as walks at the top of the lineup. If you come to bat with runners on base hitting 7'th, especially with 1 out or more, and draw a walk, you've likely cost your team a chance at runs as the pitcher now gets to face the 8 hole hitter and the pitcher. Some argue that there is still benefit in keeping the line moving and the walk still gets you to the top of the order faster, but that is a minimal benefit compared to driving in the runs.
3. Belt is currently in a prolonged slump with just 4 hits in his last 50 AB's. That's a BA of .080 or a difference of 20 hits per 100 AB's, let alone PA's!
Conclusion: Bochy's comment that a lineup with both Hector Sanchez and Buster Posey gave the Giants the best chance to win last night was absolutely correct from a statistical standpoint. Over the course of the full season, the point is much more debatable(even though Bochy said no such thing), but a reasonable case can be made the having Hector in the lineup has given the Giants a better chance to win over the course of the entire season so far.
Yeah, I'm coming around to your POV on this, Doc. If Belt is going to become a factor, he needs to stop trying to walk. And that seems what he's trying to do, instead of trying to work good counts to rake in. Belt's approach at the plate is timid. Kinda starting to remind me of Nate. Not hitting on his own terms, ever. Always reacting to what the pitcher is doing.
DeleteAnd for certain, situationally, with the game on the line, I EASILY want Hector in there instead of Belt. Anyone who has watched the Giants knows that.
Belt is fortunate to be in a situation where he's been getting 4 games a week.
Very true, OBP isn't that valuable if you will be hitting in the lower part of the order. If you were hitting in that part of the order, your job is to swing the bat and drive home any runners still on base so the pitcher doesn't have to help his own cause all the time.
DeleteCant' agree more on point #2. I have been saying that for years (in a different forum).
DeleteAs for writing off Crawford a few games back, baseabll is like - players and teams turn on and off just like that, often unexpected. It could happen to Belt. You never know. Baseball, just like life, is mysterious to those who claim to understand it.
Lastly, my suggestion to Bochy - Schierholtz should have keep it between you two and you shouldn't publicly embarrass your players either, about one player, instead of another, together with Buster gave the team the best chance to win, even if correct from a stat point of view. It's not professional. Better to just say Hector is playing well and contributing a lot right now...something like that. No need to say everything in public. If you want to explain, explain it to your players, not reporters. You too, Nate.
Now Baggarly is writing about Melky's hand gestures and Chipper's comment about not forgetting.
DeleteAgain, do what you have to, but keep it to yourself.
Whatever happened to silence is golden?
Not to discredit any of Theriot's effort out of the 2-hole in the lineup, but how about putting Belt in the second spot where his OBP could be of much greater value? He would also probably see much better pitches, as he's batting in front of Melky and Posey. Theriot, with his ability to put the ball in play a lot, would make more sense being in the 7th or 8th place hitter.
DeleteMaybe I got the wrong impression, but the other day, when Buster said he could catch anyone, Lincecum and Zito, I was happy no one made a big deal out of it.
DeleteThanks for the comments, everybody. Glad to see there's someone else out there that thinks the notion of Hector Sanchez being a better hitter than Brandon Belt is not nuts.
DeleteI think Belt hit out of the 2 hole a bit earlier in the season and did well there. I don't think he's particularly good at the "little things" a 2 hole hitter is supposed to do, but how important that is is debatable. Maybe if Theriot goes into a slump there, they might switch roles in the lineup?
Personally I think Belt in the 2 hole in worth trying - his walks would have more value and/or he would see more pitches to hit. I even think Belt profiles as a pretty decent lead-off guy to be honest, given his patience, very high OBP and pretty good baserunning. But he may not be ready for that level of responsibility mentally, which kind of cuts to the quick of the problem with him.
DeleteI think as it is the whole Belt/Hector decision is really very complex in the minds of the Giants brass, maybe more complex than it needs to be. When they're considering Belt and Hector I think they're factoring in all sorts of things like attitude, swing profile, mental fortitude, who's hot, resting Buster, keeping Hector loose and in the team, the fact Hector switch-hits, the idea Belt can't hit lefties, maybe even keeping Hector in the shop window as a trade piece. The stats are I think only one factor, and not necessarily the biggest. I think the Giants probably think Hector has a far more natural swing/'presence in the box' than Belt, and is probably easier to work with, which helps him get more playing time even if it's difficult to defend long-term based on their actual performances in their careers.
Anyway, Belt's got a tiny little window to do something in the next week or two. If he doesn't, who knows what happens. Especially with Huff due back soon, though that is probably as likely to cost Christian playing time as anyone, if either Huff or Belt can be trusted to play the odd game in the outfield.
Looking at Jason Heyward last night, I was struck by how far they have him backed off the plate and it really does make it very hard to pitch to him. He, like Belt, was getting all tied up on pitches on the inner half of the plate. I have said for a long time I would like to see Belt choke up on the bat a la Barry Bonds and Hunter Pence. The other potential solution would be to back him way off the plate like Heyward. With his long arms, he should still be able to easily cover the outside half of the plate.
DeleteWell the Sanchez debate is a moot point right now with the DL. Some people on MCC were actively rooting against Hector Sanchez, which is a pretty big pet peeve of mine. I got into that discussion briefly but its a big headache. Apparently a bit of a twitter war too. This Belt stuff is really really getting old.
DeleteI'll say this: Belt appears to be quite the streaky hitter in addition to all the other things already discussed. His defense and baserunning and defense are both excellent. I haven't looked up his swinging strikes but that was a pretty big concern earlier, especially in the strike zone.
Your 2nd point got me thinking about how effective Juan Uribe was for us in the 6th and 7th hole. Hector won't be THIS hacktastic his whole career I don't think. There is definitely some adjustments going on, but he had some BB rates that were decent in milb.
Belt played in the 2 hole for a bit and then Bochy slid Crawford in there. It wouldn't be the worst idea, but it opens up the Bochy can o' tinkering, and its been nice to have a relatively consistent lineup the past 6-8 weeks.
see, no reason that vogey shouldve been an as
ReplyDeletevery bothered by the interview nate gave to the chron. i know he has not been treated the best by the org, but public griping leads to dfa, not a trade.
Nate filed for divorce, citing irreconcilable differences. Justin strolls in a gets all the 4th OF playing time.
DeleteNate is buried down way down on the bench and has earned it.
With Burriss on the roster, Nate is in NO danger of being DFAed.
But, if he can be packed with a B prospect for REAL bullpen help, I'm in.
Bochy will review closer situation.
DeleteHembree? Bochy? That would be drastic.
Romo? Closer by committee?
The difference between Nate and Christian is Christian is a RH batter and he has some chance of being able to hit leadoff, so potentially makes a nice platoon with Blanco. It's just a case of Christian being in the right place at the right time and Nate not so much.
DeleteHey Kelly - you sure about Burriss being the auto DFA? He seems to have massive staying power, the kind we haven't seen since the days of Alex Hinshaw.
DeleteI'm not certain that Casilla was afraid to throw the slider as he was enamored of his fastball. That was nuts. Can keep singing the fastball note all by itself. Even Chapman's fastball gets hit sometimes.
ReplyDeleteBut, let's say Casilla was afraid of his breaking stuff to lefty's. So what? You still throw it. Just, out of the zone.
Yeah, not sure who was calling the FBs, Casilla or Whiteside.
BTW, what a phenomenal take of 2nd base by Whiteside when McCann fumbled the ball for a second. Outstanding read.
Crawford getting up after that foul ball and blasting a homer reminded me of how Aurilia, after getting knocked down by the pitcher, would get a big hit. I know, not exactly the same, but it did bring up memories of Richie for me.
ReplyDeleteI thought about Richie as well. #35 sharing some characteristics. Crawford was due and it was a no-doubter to boot!
DeleteHave to mention Romo too DrB. He was very shaky at first, but man that strikeout of Janish in the bottom of the 9th was as important an out as there was in the game. Great stuff.
ReplyDeleteLongest win streak of the season BTW. Can they stretch it to 6 with a sweep? Tough bidness with Huddy pitching, he's always tough on the Gints. It would be nice though...
ReplyDeleteDamn that was a nice. Two nine-run put downs of the Braves, after so many years of being on the losing end of games like this.
ReplyDeleteHector = rib-eyes. On this team that skill is golden. Everything else: 22 yrs old, plucked out of A+ ball, switch-hitter w/power, catching and handling the premier starting/bullpen rotation in MLB, tough as nails, no walks - is all gravy to me. Compared to last year watching Whitey/Stew fail away to hit .200 - Hector is a godsend. And he has upside! For those that see our farm system as weak, just look at the MLB players out of nowhere, like Hector, it has produced the last few years.
MS - that's the thing for me - Hector is young with upside. Instead of fixating on his OBP and lack of walks, look at what he's been doing well. I think he's a better defensive catcher than most give credit, sure he needs work with framing and blocking, but he works on it and I've seen improvement. I'm really tired of the criticisms of Hanchez. I don't think he's going to be as hacktastic as he's been either. Part of this is trying to figure out lefties as well, he's definitely struggled some on that front.
DeleteYeah Shank, some extra Hector rib-eyes sure would have been nice today...and given Posey a rest from behind the dish.
Delete