OK, I kind of threw this together. Probably overlooked somebody big time. As always, please don't get too hung up on exact placement.
1. Brandon Belt, 1B/OF. Although his numbers didn't look great, he put together a lot of good AB's during his stint in the majors. No reason to downgrade him from #1. I think the kid will be back and will stick the next time.
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP. I've seen Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Merkin Valdez and Zack Wheeler pitch for San Jose. Wheeler's stuff was the most overpowering. He needs to stay healthy and cut down on the walks, but his ceiling is as high as any pitcher in the organization and that includes the MLB level.
3. Gary Brown, OF. He didn't look that impressive on the day I saw him but he has put up great numbers despite a recent slump. Potential to be a 2 WAR player on defense alone, and he should be a lot better than replacement on offense too.
4. Joe Panik, SS. 2011 first round draft pick off to a great start for Salem-Keizer. The Giants think he can stick at SS which could make him a premium prospect.
5. Francisco Peguero, OF. Raking in the Eastern League like he didn't notice he had been promoted.
6. Thomas Neal, OF. Missed time at the beginning of the season to injury. Has hit better than .300 since coming back while showing 5 tool skills. Needs to pick up the power.
7. Heath Hembree, RHP. Probably has the highest velocity in the organization right now. Potential to be a future closer.
8. Hector Sanchez, C. A favorite of Giants prospect watchers for years, finally had the breakout everybody was hoping for. More than holding his own after a promotion to AAA.
9. Eric Surkamp, LHP. Appears to be fully recovered from a dislocated hip and putting up impressive K numbers in AA. May have enough of a CB and CH to not need a great fastball.
10. Chris Dominguez, 3B. Prodigious power, maybe the best in the organization. Has hit >.300 with power since his promotion to AA. Truly impressive and his stock is way, way up!
11. Chuckie Jones, OF. Has missed a lot of time this year with various injuries and is on the DL right now, but showed why everybody is so high on him in a brief sample at the beginning of short season ball.
12. Tommy Joseph, C. 3'rd youngest player in the Cal League. Has held his own and shown his light tower power.
13. Ehire Adrianza, SS. Injured at the beginning of the year. Has kind of bounced around at different levels since coming back. Could become an elite shortstop if he can hit at all.
14. Charlie Culberson, 2B. Despite Peguero and Dominguez coming up and owning the EL, it's still a very tough place to hit. Culberson has held his own.
15. Roger Kieschnick, OF. Has come on strong of late in the EL. Might have as good an arm as Nate. Needs to stay healthy.
16. Jarrett Parker, OF. So-so BA but excellent walk rates with some power and speed for San Jose. Could be a late bloomer.
17. Rafael Rodriguez, OF. Numbers not impressive for the Sally League but just turned 19 and he hasn't embarrassed himself.
18. Conor Gillaspie, 3B. Solid numbers for Fresno. The big problem with him is he was given a MLB contract after the draft so his options run out next spring. He has to be either kept on the 25 man roster or exposed to waivers. With Pablo healthy and productive and Gillaspie only playing 1 position, it doesn't look like there is a place for him with the Giants. Most likely trade bait at this point.
19. Ryan Verdugo, LHP. Good K numbers for Richmond as a starter. Needs to keep the walks down.
20. Seth Rosin, RHP. Has yet to find a role but has a K/9=9 with low walks for Augusta. I'm still a believer.
21. Jacob Dunnington, RHP. Now the 9'th or 10 youngest player in the Cal League since his promotion. Staying in the bullpen for now but I see him as a future starter.
22. Adalberto Mejia, LHP. 6 figure Dominican bonus baby. Putting up great numbers at age 17 in the DSL. Great size, especially for a LHP.
23. Kendry Flores, RHP. Age appropriate for Short Season ball.
24. Mike Kickham, LHP. Similar pattern to his college career with nice K numbers. Will eventually have to translate into a good ERA.
25. Leonard Fuentes, OF. Might be a top 10 based on ceiling alone, but has a long way to go.
26. Johnny Monell, C. Numbers have been coming up in the EL of late. Left handed hitting catchers have a lot of value even as backups.
27. Nick Noonan, SS. This may be too high. Has really struggled at the plate but has stuck at SS all season at Richmond which increases his value a lot.
28. Joan Gregorio, RHP. Great size. Has put up some nice number in a limited sample for AZL Giants.
29. Brett Bochy, RHP. Melonhead Jr. has been lights out pitching out of the bullpen for Augusta coming of TJ surgery.
30. Adam Duvall, 3B. Has put up huge power numbers for Augusta while moving to 3B. Has committed a ton of errors there, but so did Pablo Sandoval and Chris Dominguez. We'll see if he can stick at the position.
31. Jesus Galindo, OF. Speedster graduate of the DSL. Starting to show signs of learning to hit.
32. Alex Burg, C/3B. Torching the Cal League since a recent promotion. College numbers and numbers form last year suggest it may be for real.
33. Clayton Blackburn, RHP. Big HS RHP draftee. Don't know much about him but has done great in very limited sample to start his pro career.
34. Carlos Willoughby, 2B. BA not that impressive but has maintained excellent OBP skills and can steal bases.
35. Reiner Roibal, RHP. Had one dominant start and some other good ones so far for AZL Giants.
36. Brandon Allen, RHP. Has struggled but his last start was much better and time is still on his side.
37. Matt Graham, RHP. Has pitched terrible but has a high ceiling and time is on still on his side.
38. Jason Stoffel, RHP. Has been passed on the closer track by Hembree, but has pitched decently for AA Richmond.
39. Dan Otero, RHP. Recent promo to Fresno and has been one of their best pitchers.
40. Mike Murray, C. Don't know if he can catch, but he can sure hit. The Giants are suddenly loaded with catching prospects who can hit, so he's in a holding pattern in S-K.
41. Chris Lofton, OF. So-so season for Augusta, I think he has 5 tool potential if they can be patient with him.
42. Tyler Graham, OF. Nice season for Fresno with outstanding SB numbers. I think he can be a nice 4'th OF for some MLB team.
43. Michael Main, RHP. Has battled injuries but former first round pick of the Rangers has pitched well when healthy for SJ.
44. Nick Liles, OF, 3B, 2B. Versatility may eventually buy him a ticket to the show.
45. Justin Fitzgerald, RHP. Has pitched well for Richmond. Can be a workhorse if he ever makes the show.
46. Chris Heston, RHP. Overshadowed by Wheeler in SJ, but has pitched well. Can get K's and groundballs.
47. Shawn Sanford, RHP. Similar profile to Heston but at a lower level.
48. Brett Pill, 1B, 2B, 3B. Having a terrific season for Fresno. Superb fielding 1B. Has ability to fill in at 2B increased his value?
49. Hector Correa, RHP. Great numbers since callup to Richmond.
50. Brett Krill, OF. Saved a spot at the end for my favorite sleeper prospect. Big, deceptively athletic guy from UCLA. Currently on a hitting tear for Salem-Keizer.
Honorable Mention: Clayton Tanner, Justin Chrisitan, Ben Thomas and Joe Staley.
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Ah, no place for Surkamp. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteAnon, beat me to it! No Surkamp? Got to be somewhere there around #7-#12 I'd say!
ReplyDeleteAlso, don't forget about THE FRANCHISE airing on Showtime tomorrow!
I was going to say Jackson Williams but you are correct with Surkamp. He could be a good #2 or #3 in a few years. His ceiling is not as high as Wheeler but I wouldn't count him out. He would probably be included in any big trade though since I doubt we would trade Wheeler. I almost would rather see him pitch in SF than Sanchez. That guys mental game is shot. He has all the tools but his head gets in the way.
ReplyDeleteGillaspie?
ReplyDeletedoc had to have a brain fart with surkamp
ReplyDeleteand i dont really think pill qualifies as a prospect anymore...more likely an aaaa type of guy who can either be used as a package, but looks to be an org sort of guy, as the positions he can play are limited...and i like the kid
im really concerned about the lack of depth in pitching...giants may need to make some moves in that dept
Ok, so surkamp was certainly a mistake and doc meant for him to be top 10, maybe top 5. But what about Kelvin Marte? I think he's gotta be on here too. I'm pretty sure he was generally rated amongst the giants top 20 by sickels, ba, etc.. He's a little old for a cal league prospect, but he has been consistently good at limiting runs and getting lots of groundballs.
ReplyDeleteIm mixed on pill. We only malign him because he's so old. The org never fully believed in him and hr has been moved real slow. But he is putting together a good enough season, showing at least competency at a position where we have been playing largely incompetent players post-Freddy. He at least deserves a chance in sf or should be traded to a rebuilding team that will give him one.
I honestly believe that if he isn't overwhelmed by pressure he could be a more competent 2b than burrow or hall, and could platoon with fontenot. And also play some first base to rest huff without having to rush belt's development.
Drb, thanks for posting a top 50 list.. Agree with assessment on Brandon Belt. Its unfortunate that Belt has had an uneven season so far, being optioned to Fresno twice and having a major injury, clearly setting his developement back a little. I'm wondering how many options does a minor league player have to be called up in a season? I'm not so sure anymore if Belt will get an extended look in the bigs, not until September. The season is running short and he's had a limited amount of ABS in the Bigs, Fresno (125ABS) and San Jose. I think the Giants want to get Belt more ABS somewhere for the remainder of the season.
ReplyDeleteSurkamp should be top 10, probably slotted behind Hector Sanchez. Gillaspie should be on the list somewhere. Not at all impressed by Marte's numbers. Possibly top 50 but borderline, IMO.
ReplyDeletePitching is getting dangerously thin unless some of the high ceiling youngsters like Allen and Graham break through. They need to either get busy in the international market or devote next year's draft to pitching.
There we edited it to put in Surkamp and Gillaspie. Everybody happy now?
ReplyDeleteOne player who definitely intrigues me still is Charlie Culberson. You have him 14, I put him 11 on my top 25 list. I think he's still got a good chance to progress and make a nice infield combo with Crawford in a few years. What do you think about our new draft picks? Oropesa, Susac, Crick, etc.?
ReplyDeleteFla Giant has a nice write up on the contract status of Oropesa, Crick, etc. Seems like most of them will likely sign over-slot deals near the 8/15 deadline. I would think those 3 would make top 25 although it's getting mighty crowded.
ReplyDeleteGreat Stuff DOC..Anybody might have alot of movement in their own personal list but really awesome to put all the names together in one place....One picher who I would really zoom up the charts is Hector Correa..23 and fully recovered from two wasted injury years..You could see him putting it together last year in Augusta...Like Hembree (who is a year younger),Great stuff and insane numbers this year as he has dominated both at San Jose and Richmond..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Thanks DrB, and sorry about all the grief you had to take. But you did say you did this off the top of mind, so I was hoping people would cut you a break. I didn't notice Surkamp was missing either until I read the first comment, or Gillaspie.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm amazed about is about the depth of the farm system now. Players we have in the 15-25 range used to be what we would have in our Top 10, right? Heck, sometimes Top 5 if we go back far enough. We have a pretty good farm system overall relative to what we have had in the past.
I generally agree with all your comments and your ranking. Of course, I've been influenced by your great coverage here on your good luck blog! Particularly for players beyond the top 10, where I don't have as good a feel for.
I'm amazed at how many players in the 15-30 range who I think have some chance of making the majors if they develop something further. Previously, as I noted, these are guys that just make the Top 10 for us. Like Brett Bochy, I've liked the work he has done for us and my initial thought that maybe he should be higher, but then I look higher and I can't find a reason to put him higher. And I've liked Noonan for a while now, but I can't see a reason to push him up higher even. Same on up the line.
About Gillaspie, I think that is a very good observation, he could be trade bait in terms of being part of an overall package. I would put him in a similar class as Blake DeWitt: no real defensive position, has a bat but no real power. That has some value off the bench, as long as he can play multiple positions, like DeWitt can. Gillaspie has played almost all 3B though, with handful of 1B games. He really needs to get comfortable at 2B for him to make the Giants bench in 2012.
So, yeah, he's a good bet to be traded just so that the Giants don't lose value by having to DFA him, but other teams should see the same thing, so he could be another Brian Buscher for us, who gets DFAed, picked up, and ekes out a couple of years in majors on the edge. But I think Gillaspie is a better bat, so I think he can last longer, earning a spot on a bench somewhere, playing 1B/2B/3B (spot OF?) but his main value is a good bat off bench, take some walks too, but no real power. If he could ever hit for power, he would be really good.
Murray at 40 looks like he has a MLB level bat. Is the organization going to let him catch or find him a position or maybe trade him because as Doc says all of a sudden we have lots of catchers who hit well?
ReplyDeleteBurkhart could be yet another young & L-hitting C on this list
ReplyDeleteDoc, didn't mention how much I liked your list and appreciated it. I'm with OGC; the system looks deep with a lot of players that have a reasonable shot of making the big leagues, and some of them have a good shot of being good big leaguers.
ReplyDeleteOne of my personal favorites is Adam Duvall, which is in part because I think he could (and should) be playing 2b. I'd take a low-range 2b who takes walks and hits for lots of power over just about any other 2b prospect we got (unless Panik is moved over). But it's hard to rank him higher--there are too many other good players in front of him.
I think the Giants system has improved greatly this year. Coming into it, there were a lot of questions marks, and the overall system was in the bottom third of the MLB. I'd say it's at least in the middle or a little better now. Lots of prospects have improved their stock with good play, and if Belt is still counted, we have 3 Top 5 prospects. Not bad.
That said, I think AZ's farm system is looking downright scary. Power hitters and 4 pitchers who could be aces (Skaggs, Parker, Bauer, Bradley). Fearsome. I keep comforting myself by repeating TINSTAAPP over and over again...
meant to say we have 3 top 50 prospects: Belt (top 1b prospect according to mlb.com and most others now that hosmer/freeman graduated), Wheeler, and Brown.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to when guys finally get promoted. It seems like they've been playing it safe with most of their best recently acquired prospects: brown, duvall, surkamp, murray, thomas, panik. Other than putting peguero where he was supposed to be playing before his knee injury and promoting hembree because he was just too dominant in the cal league, the only players they've seemingly rushed this year are Hector Sanchez and, I dare say, Brandon Belt.
Thanks everybody! Yeah Arizona had a scary good draft this year, partly because they played the system and parlayed a decent player(Barrett Loux) from last year into an elite player this year. They correctly foresaw that they could get a much better player in this year's draft even with the compensatory pick unprotected. Yeah, yeah, I know Loux didn't pass his physical, blah, blah, blah. THAT sure was convenient, wasn't it? Still can't blame them for taking advantage of a loophole in the system.
ReplyDelete