As the Trade Deadline looms, and speculation starts to run wild, I thought it might be fun to let folks play GM and see if there are any fresh ideas out there. I'm not going to bore you with the details of what the Giants needs are. They've been discussed here and on other sights ad nauseum. Brian Sabean filled one huge need in the middle IF with the acquisition of Jeff Keppinger. From his statements, it seems highly likely that at least one more deal is coming. Here's a short list of the possibilities:
Carlos Beltran, OF, NY Mets: Beltran is a fine hitter who has been plagued by injuries over the last few seasons. The Mets will almost certainly trade him and several teams appear to be interested including the Philadelphia Phillies. Beltran is a FA at the end of the season. He has about $6 M left on his current contract. The Giants are rumored to be willing to take on his contract, but the Mets would rather pay the contract and take a top notch prospect or 2. Zack Wheeler and Gary Brown are names that have been mentioned in rumors. Jim Bowden says his sources tell him the Giants are willing to part with Wheeler but not Brown.
Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros: Pence is apparently available but would require a huge package in return, probably at least 3 of the Giants top prospects. Unlike Beltran, Pence has never been seriously injured and his contract is controlled through 2013, although he will be well paid through the leverage of the arbitration process.
Melky Cabrera, OF, KC Royals: Melky would probably not cost as much as either Beltran or Pence, but is he really an upgrade on Ross, Torres and Nate?
Ronnie Paulino, C, NY Mets: Paulino seems to be the only catcher upgrade who might be available. As OGC points out in his latest blog post, the Giants catching situation is not nearly as dire as it appeared to be after the Posey injury.
Michael Cuddyer, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins: Apparently the "bigger" trade Sabes was working on was for Michael Cuddyer of the Twins with the idea he would play 2B for the Giants. When those talks seemed to hit a wall, and Miggy Tejada went down, Sabes went to his fallback which was Keppinger because he knew he could get that deal done immediately.
If you are sitting in Brian Sabean's office what moves would you make in the next 2 weeks? I'd like to hear your ideas. Are there any sleeper trades out there nobody is talking about? The Keppinger trade was certainly under the radar.
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At this point, I'm definitely willing to give up Wheeler, plus some B-level prospects for Beltran.
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy, but I believe that Wheeler is over-valued. I've seen him pitch in SJ, and he's got good stuff and all, but (as everyone knows) his control is less than stellar. Remember when everyone was upset that Sabean gave up Alderson for Sanchez? I'd say that trade worked out fairly well...
I have no problem when teams in contention give up "haven't beens" for proven players that could put them over the top. Look at the package that was assembled for Miguel Cabrera. That worked out well for the Marlins...NOT.
Catching is less urgent, but I'd revisit the trade for Torrealba that was previously mentioned, although I'd prefer Hernandez from the Reds. If it's going to take anything big to get these guys, I back out.
Bottom line: Maybe pick up a C for cheap if possible, but absolutely try to get Beltran...you can't afford for him to go to the Phils or Braves.
I don't think that is a good idea. We can't tell what kind of a player Wheeler will bd but to risk it for a rental is just dumb. Now Wheeler and 2 other prospects for Pence would be worth it because you have him for 2 more years plus if we can't sign him he will probably fetch a good trade or compensation picks. With Beltran we cannot receive anything for him due to Boras. If we didnt win it all again you just wasted a guy who is projected to be a solid 2 or 3 starter after he works out some control issues. It is so hard to repeat and I wouldnt bet our future on it. With Zito, Rowand, DeRosa, Tejada, Affeldt and Sanchez to be off the books in 3 years, that is almost $50 million extra a year. Hoping we have a few prospects to take their places we could afford to lock up Lincecum snd Cain and get a couple great additions. Having a guy like Pence would only make our future better.
ReplyDeleteDon't think its a good idea to give up Wheeler or Brown for Beltran. The Giants have questionable pitching depth in the minors to begin with. My view would be different if the Giants could have gotten draft picks for him, but any team can't offer Beltran arbitration.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't surprise me if Sabean is still after Cuddyer which would be a nice pickup. He's a solid righthanded hitter who plays RF/1st base, the last time I looked he had something like 12 hrs and 45 rbis which would lead the Giants right now! I don't think he would cost them their best prospects because he's also a free agent. He's been a Twin his whole career so maybe the Twins might not trade him. He's hitting .345 with 8 hrs and 15 rbi's against lefthanders. How about this lineup against lefthanders - Ross, Rowand, and Cuddyer in the OF, Pablo, Crawford, Keppinger, and Belt/Huff in the IF with Whiteside/Stewart catching. I think the Giants can get draft picks for him if he decides to become a free agent.
hey doc, how smart were the giants with their first round choice of panik?
ReplyDeletelots of first rounders still not signed...which means they are all looking for over slot money
it also means that most, if not all, wont be doing any work in their orgs till next spring
giants signed for slot, freeing up more money to sign everyone else...and panik is looking great, and will be in sj or ct to start next season
good play by sabean and evans
and i think the twinkies are asking a lot for cuddyer, so he is probably off the table
sabean will have to get creative
Hey, thanks for the ideas everybody!
ReplyDeleteIf it is going to take Wheels to get Beltran, and I think it's a very close call there, I think I would rather clean out the top of the farm for Pence because he's under control for 2 additional seasons whereas Beltran is gone and it's all or nothing with him. I'm not that excited about Cuddyer although the Twins park might be harder to hit in than AT&T so we know his success is not park aided.
Does anyone think a package of J Sanchez, Wheeler and Brown would bring back Pence? I'm actually more willing to part with Brown than Wheeler, not because I don't like Brown, but because Peguero is a very similar player whereas the organizational pitching is so thin. If they trade Wheels, then they have to be sure they can keep the trio of Cain, Bumgarner and Timmy intact for another 3-4 seasons.
How smart is it for Panik to sign early. If he had signed late, he probably start next year at SK. Now, he'll likely start next year at SJ. He'll probably get to the majors one year earlier.
ReplyDeleteHad Ben Thomas started at SK, that would have made an interesting comparison vs Ricky Oropesa.
Comparing the Alderson trade to any trade involving Wheeler is a fallacy. Alderson's stuff was slipping and he was losing velo on his fastball. We overvalued him here at MCCovey, but it was generally udnerstood that the star on Alderson's name had lost some luster. Wheeler on the other hand still has a ton of upside and isnt someone I would want to get rid of. When you consider that we will need some homegrown options in the rotation to keep Timmy and Matty in the fold, trading away guys like Wheeler and Suhkamp wouldnt be my recommendation.
ReplyDeleteAs far as targets are concerned, I dont like the idea of gutting the farm for Hunter Pence. His BABIPs is outside the norm and Im just not sure he would be worth what it would cost to get him here.
Cuddyer for B level prospect or two would be much more palatable at this point.
Cuddyer is an intriguing name to me because his value seems to be lost in the Beltran/Pence trade talks. For what it would probably take to get him, his return value might be as high or higher than either Pence or Beltran...
ReplyDeleteWhere would Cuddyer play? Isn't he a liability like Burrell in the outfield? I thought we traded for Keppinger to play 2B.
ReplyDeleteI know that I don't want the Giants to get into a panic mode. From everything I have read, the Twins are keeping Cuddyer and the Astros want to build a team around Pence. Not too concerned with the OF with the exception of depending on Ross for more than he is capable. I still believe he is northing more than a backup. We all know Rowand, Huff and Burrell have found a home and they seem to have a hold on a roster spot. Burrell's tenure might be on thin ice. So..............
ReplyDeleteRather than give up Wheeler, I would ride this buggy till the wheels fell off. Wheeler reminds me to much of Cain to take a chance. I don't want to give the future away because another future returns next year to catching. Four games ahead and the main competition lost their Posey, to bring in Ransom, gives me alot of optimism
I was wondering if the Giants were going to bring in some giant heaters for Halliday.
Tbox
Just throwing a name out there that I saw mentioned at one point: BJ Upton.
ReplyDeleteStill hasn't reached his potential, definitely has speed, change of scenery could do him some good, and competing in the same division as his brother might motivate him. Thoughts?
Are the Rays even shopping Upton? I don't think they've given up on the season yet. (8.5 back in the East, 6.5 back in the WC tonight). I'd listen if they started the conversation. But I think he's shown what he's got by now (2800 ABs). It ain't bad, but not the stick the Giants are looking for.
ReplyDeleteDoc, I like the way you're thinking about moving Sanchez. His value has got to be low right now, though. If I'm Houston, I'd have taken your deal last year (when Sanchez was destroying worlds and had 2 years of arbitration coming). But, not now.
Like to move Brown, (not Wheeler) plus add-ons to the Mets for Beltran, at this point. The shine is off of Wheeler, but still way too early to bail on his potential.
Got to love the Mets, who've asked Boras if Beltran would come back next year if traded. (The answer, of course, is yes, for the right price.)