Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Game Wrap 7/5/2011: Padres 5 Giants 3

Same score different night. I only had to change the day on the heading. Matt Cain was due for an off night. The Padres made the most of the opportunity. Key Lines:

Not much to highlight on offense. The Giants had 11 hits scattered up and down the lineup plus 2 BB's. As usual, they just didn't have the punch to bring them in.

Matt Cain- 7 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. Cain's peripherals look like a typical Cain game, so maybe he just got BABIPed, but several of those hits were smoked. He's probably more lucky a couple of them didn't leave the yard.

In losing, the Giants lost another game to the second place D'Backs who are now just 1 game behind after beating the BrewCrew 7-3. The Rockies and Dodgers lost so the Rocks remain 6.5 games behind in 3'rd place while the Padres move 3 games up on the Dodgers and trail the Giants by 8 games. The Dodgers remain dead last 11 games off the pace.

Madison Bumgarner takes the hill tomorrow night against Dustin Moseley as the Giants need to win tomorrow to have a chance of salvaging a split in the 4 game series.

12 comments:

  1. Didn't realize Qualls was such a tool. Loses Torres on a 15 pitch AB to walk. (Sweet AB from Andres.) Qualls ultimately gets him out at the plate on a wild pitch toss back from Hundley.

    Qualls blocked the plate by more or less falling on top of it. He threw an elbow at Torres. Then he spiked the ball in Torres' face like he'd just won the World Series. Hey, Chad (this never gets old) the Giants won the World Series pal. Torres had to commit way early to a head-first slide. I don't think he ever got to the plate.

    Qualls was playing catcher at the plate. Extremely aggressive. On the off-chance anyone sees Qualls near the plate again, gotta spike the hell out of him. If not put a shoulder into him. Damn the run.

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  2. torres has an 8 minute 16 pitch at bat for a walk...then k's on 3 balls with men in scoring position

    dont wanna get down on bam bam...but something happens to these guys when it comes to situational hitting

    the guy who will most benefit from the 3 day break is gonna be andres...he is trying too hard to prove last season wasnt a fluke

    frodo is very close...cant really see the org keeping him in fresno for the rest of the week...hall is a waste of space on the bench

    everywhere i turn people are screaming for belt

    doc...except for one week in the bigs...belt has yet to prove himself

    ok...he hit at every level...the thrill and scouts love his swing...but people have been wrong...and looking at him now, he definitely wont be ready for a callup till august at the earliest

    huff bs'd the fo...he signed his fat contract, then took off for the entire post...and got fat...and contented...his behavior during the season has been a throwback to his baltimore days...so it has nothing to do with being on a losing team

    huff is why i like 1 year contracts

    at least pablo has regained his 09 form

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  3. Its disappointing losing with Timmy and Cain, your all-star pitchers. I think the Giants win the next 2. The pitching matchups Madbum vs Mosely(2-8 record) and Zito vs Luebke(3 starts this season) favor the Giants. The slider Cain threw to Maybin backed up right into Maybin's wheelhouse and it cost them the game. I think the Giants return the favor and win the final 2 games.

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  4. mosely is like madbum, look at his stats...no run support

    here is wheeler on one of his off days, working with the miracle league

    http://yfrog.com/h4k64anj

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  5. Yup, Mosely hasn't had run support. I remember his struggles pitching for the Halos. Maybe he's improved since then.

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  6. I still think the term situational hitting is thrown around way too much. The term implies that the hitter intentionally does something different in different situations. The "situations" (Hey, maybe we could call it Jersey Shore hitting!) I can think of where you would alter your approach is 1. Sac Bunts 2. Trying to hit it in the air instead of on the ground in Sac Fly situations and 3. Hitting to the right side with a runner on second, or on a Hit and Run.

    From a statistical viewpoint, most "situational" hitting is bad hitting. You are giving up an out to advance a runner and it's usually not worth it.

    I don't think hitting for a higher average with runners on is a teachable skill, or even a skill at all. It's mostly due to luck. It's much more effective in run production to bunch a team's hits together in one inning than to spread them out over the game. 11 hits and 2 BB's in 1 innning will likely produce 9-11 runs. As we saw last night, 11 hits and 2 BB's distributed more or less evenly over the game produced just 3 runs. That difference is mostly a function of luck rather than skill.

    The Giants are in the bottom third of MLB in BA, OBP and SLG% with SLG% being their lowest ranking. Lack of power, rather than lack of "situational" hitting is the main reason for their lack of run production.

    They also rank in the bottom third in BABIP. Luck plays a much greater role in BABIP than in BA/OBP/SLG%. So there is statistical evidence that some of the Giants lack of run production can be attributed to bad luck.

    Whether that luck will even out over the course of 1 season remains to be seen.

    Yeah, I don't expect any gimme wins against Moseley and Luebke.

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  7. What does BABIP mean?

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  8. Batting Average on Balls In Play

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  9. Batting Average on Balls in Play is remarkably constant across baseball. Most teams and most players regress to a BABIP of about .300 if given a large enough sample size. Large deviations of BABIP from .300 are generally considered to be due mostly to luck. I don't completely agree with that, but concede that it is true in most cases.

    Differences in hitters are mostly due to K's, BB's and HR's.

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  10. I agree that BABIP can be used as a general tool, but you can't use it for much more than that.

    A bad-ball hitter who swings (and hits) at pitches way out of the strike zone SHOULD have a lower BABIP than someone who only swings at strikes (the bad pitch hitter will make solid contact less often than the guy who only swings at strikes). How would BABIP explain guys like Wade Boggs (exclude 1987) or Ichiro?

    Again, I like the stat, and I use it quite a bit. But you HAVE use it with a grain of salt and understand that it is ONLY useful if you take into account the hitter it is referring to.

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  11. Doc says:

    From a statistical viewpoint, most "situational" hitting is bad hitting. You are giving up an out to advance a runner and it's usually not worth it.

    ---

    Couple of things:

    Except for the Sac Bunt, you're not necessarily giving up an out. You're changing your approach. Fly balls might leave the park or be a line drive. Ground balls to right side have been known to go through to right field, especially when the second baseman vacates.

    "not worth it" is very debatable. Especially on a pitching strong team/hitting weak teams where each run gains value. Also, runs gain value late in close games. The situation itself determines the merit of situational hitting.

    If you're Pablo Sandoval, OK. Swing away almost always. He's a good enough hitter.

    But, damnit, Rowand is not. There are times when he needs to try go the other way. And it's fair to get frustrated with him because going the other way is simply out of the question for Rowand.

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  12. Sorry, not trying to single out Rowand. It's just that he seems to have the least ability to change anything at the plate.

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