Brian Sabean was in a position where he was going to get heat no matter what he did. With the Giants in first place in the NL West because of the best pitching staff in baseball top-to-bottom, but one of the worst offenses, staying in first place to the end of the season was not a given and winning in the playoffs seemed like a downright longshot. Stand pat and Sabean would be criticized heavily for failing to take advantage of the opportunity window this pitching staff is giving him. Make the trade and a bunch of obsessive nerds who do things like read minor league boxscores every day would be railing that he mortgaged the future of the team for a "rental."
First, let's take a look at what the Giants are getting in Beltran: Make no mistake. Carlos Beltran is a difference maker with a batting line of .289/.391/.513 with 15 HRs. He didn't do that in a bandbox park either. Citi Field is a serious ballpark and a tough place to hit, especially for power. He also has a track record of excellent play in the postseason with a cumulative OPS of 1.302 in 22 games. He is not just a good hitter. He was the best available hitter as the trade deadline approached. His only downside is a history of injuries but he has played in 98 of 104 games this year. Many teams wanted him. The Pirates apparently had a deal done for him but he exercised his no-trade clause to block that trade. Apparently Beltran thinks the Giants have a better chance of winning than the Pirates. There are no guarantees in baseball, or life for that matter, only probabilities. Beltran significantly increases the probability that the Giants will be able to repeat as World Series Champions.
Now let's take a look at what the Giants gave up in Wheeler: Zack Wheeler was the Giants first round draft choice in 2009, #5 overall. He is an excellent pitching prospect who I have raved about on this blog. Great size. Great velocity. Great K rates. Strong ground ball tendencies. Those are elite qualities. The only downside is a relatively high walk rate that will have to come down before he can become a MLB ace, but he's young enough that he still has plenty of time to correct it. As with all young pitchers, he is an injury risk but no higher than average. Again, there are no certainties in baseball, but Zack Wheeler will probably be a #1 or #2 MLB starting pitcher some day. The Giants gave up a lot.
Although I hate losing a prospect like Wheeler, I think this is a trade Sabean had to make. When you have a window of opportunity, you have to go for it. Winning 2 WS in a row is a pretty rare accomplishment unless you are the Yankees. It would make this Giants era one of the best of all time. Beltran makes that possibility significantly more likely. Zack Wheeler will not pitch in the major leagues for at least 2 years. Who knows what the landscape will look like then? I believe the Giants have the resources to hang onto the core of their pitching staff long term, but if not they can be traded prior to free agency much like the Mets just did with Beltran. 2 years is plenty of time to reload the farm system with pitching prospects and the Giants do know how to find pitching.
In summary, I give the trade a thumbs up while admitting it is a close call and admitting the Giants paid a big price.
BTW, for another opinion about the trade, look up Jeff Passan's article on yahoo.com. He does an interesting compare and contrast with the Cardinals and the Rasmus trade. Guess which one he likes better!
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the indians, bucs and rangers wanted carlos really bad...and the buzz is their offers were much better than what the giants gave up...but carlos used his no trade
ReplyDeletei understand the giants needed an impact bat
all comes down to the posey/freddy injuries
i just really hope you are right and that sabean and company can retool over the next two seasons
wonder if the phils would be open to taking rowand back for some prospects...he sure as heck loves hitting in that park
Would have preferred to see Brown go (if it was a matter of one of the two). The upside on Wheeler is really seductive. I think everyone pretty much knows he isn't Tim Alderson.
ReplyDeleteBeltran, yeah, he guarantees nothing. And with him, we are in no way favored to repeat. But he gives us a great chance of making the playoffs. The D-Backs aren't fading yet. Might not fade.
And what other options were there? Completely empty the cupboard for Pence? I don't think the Astros would be interested. Wait and see if the White Sox give up and unload Quinten? They are only 3.5 games out in a pretty weak AL central. BJ Upton? Mild upgrade over what we have, at best.
We could have waited to see if the Mets dropped their threshold further. But it definitely would have opened the door to the Phillies or Atlanta.
Met fans are crowing right now, and why not? They don't know what they have for a couple of years.
This trade needs to be measured for the first time on July 31st. See who else moved and for what.
Meantime, I think the Giants make another move before the deadline.
Spot on DrB. I wish I had something to add besides that!
ReplyDeleteOn something of a side note, the trade also reveals the weakness of Sabean's selection of Wheeler when more highly rated Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner (both also HS power righthanders) were still on the board. Apparently signability and budget was the major issue, and Miller and Turner continue to be more promising than Wheeler. If they had drafted either of those and then traded him for two months of Beltran, I might have been upset. But I agree with you as to Wheeler.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree that Miller and Turner are necessarily better prospects than Wheeler. Wheels development was delayed a bit due to the split fingernail.
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