Sunday, June 5, 2011

Scouting the Draft: Ranking the First Basemen

First base is not a huge need for the Giants what with Brandon Belt around and having trouble breaking in. Both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey could move to 1B in the future too. The system is a bit thin at first base in the lower minors, so if the BPA happens to be a first baseman, no harm in pulling the trigger. Here's how BA ranks them in terms of talent by round:

First Round:

CJ Cron, Utah- .448/.520/.855, 14 HR's. I'm always suspicious of offensive numbers from the mountain west, but the scouts seem to think Cron is the real-deal calling him the best hitter in the draft. He moved off catcher this year due to injuries and will probably stay at first base. Not a great defensive player at any position, but if you have the best bat in the draft it may not matter. I've seen one mock draft with Cron going to the Giants at #29, but most of them have him going earlier.

Supplemental Round:

2. Ricky Oropesa, USC- .322/.402/.481, 7 HR, 3 SB, 2 CS. I work with Ricky's mom, so am a huge fan. He has enormous raw power and hit for both power and average his first two years at USC. He led the Cape Cod League in HR's with 7, but his BA was near the Mendoza line. He has tended to strike out a lot. He was not able to get a BBCOR bat of the size he is used to until a month into the college season this year. He also tried a more controlled approach at the plate with more of a line drive swing that he had some trouble adjusting to so his numbers this year were a bit disappointing. One thing about Ricky that is not well know is he probably could have been a pitching prospect too. BA rates his arm as the best of any position player in the draft. That's why there is still a thought that he could play 3B or even corner OF. He does have some speed, probably enough to play corner OF, but it's not his biggest plus by far. I would be happy if the Giants took Ricky in the Supplemental round although I'm not sure he fits the profile of the type of player the Giants are looking for that high in the draft and pitching is a bigger organizational need.

3. Aaron Westlake, Vanderbilt- .354/.467/.624, 14 HR. Westlake is probably a better all-around hitter than Oropesa but does not have Ricky's power potential, IMO. He's a good defensive first baseman. He would be a solid selection in the supplemental round with the same disclaimers about the Giants MO and organizational needs.

Second Round: None

Third/Fourth Rounds:

4. Dan Vogelbach, HS- Kid looks like the Pillsbury Doughboy but has prodigious power and is a much better athlete than he looks like. Would the success the Giants have had with Pablo Sandoval make them less afraid of Vogelbach's size?

5. Cody Stubbs, JC- No info.

Fifth/Sixth Rounds:

Nick Ramirez, CS Fullerton- .286/.386/.500, 9 HR's Kind of a sleeper type. Could be a steal this late in the draft.

Overall it's an extremely thin year for corner players in general and first basemen in particular. A team might want to reach for the top 2 or 3 if there is an organizational need, otherwise it might be better to punt the category this year and concentrate on other positions, like pitching for instance.

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