DrB's 2011 Giants Draft Wrap

OK, sorry for the delay, everybody. Finally got back from my meeting and have some time this weekend to stretch out and take the time to evaluate the draft. Let's get right to the draft list by round:

1. Joe Panik, SS/2B, St. John's. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 195 lbs. .398/.509/.642, 10 HR, 19 2B, 3 3B, 21 SB, 6 CS. This pick took a lot of observers, including me, by surprise so it's been discussed and analyzed as much as any pick in the draft. My own reaction when I saw the pick was less WTF and more, "Oh yeah, Panik. Why didn't I put him on my short list?" I've liked Panik's bat for a long time and thought he might make a good pick for the Giants. Somehow, I just had him pigeonholed in my mind as a supplemental or second round pick rather than late first rounder. Really though, when you look at his numbers, it's easy to imagine him becoming a very good offensive middle infielder. A lot of the criticism centers around his lack of ability to stay at SS due to a history of labrum surgery. First of all, John Barr insists he can stick at SS. Second, think of it this way: I and a lot of other people would have been perfectly happy if the Giants had drafted Kolton Wong at this spot. Well, Kolton Wong wasn't available, but he's not a shortstop either, and Panik's numbers are every bit as good or better across the board. I think there is a high probability that Panik will have a long MLB career as a middle infielder and make a terrific #2 hole hitter behind the Giants future CF, Gary Brown who will handle the leadoff spot. So far, Barr has shown a strong preference for college hitters with high BA's and gap power at the top of the draft while gambling on power hitters with contact issues in subsequent rounds. Word comes in today that the Giants have already signed Panik which means he signed for essentially slot money. That's good because it potentially frees up money in the draft budget to go over slot with some guys drafted later who might be tougher to sign.

1S. Kyle Crick, RHP, HS. 6'3", 225 lbs. I also overlooked Crick in my pre-draft lists of HS power arms that might be available in the first 3 rounds or so, but I really like him, possibly better than some of the ones who were drafted in Round 1 ahead of where the Giants were picking. He's a big burly righthander in the mold of Matt Cain and Zack Wheeler. Consistent low 90's fastball that has peaked at 97. A mid-70's curveball that is a plus pitch at times. An above average slider and he "fiddles around" with a splitter and changeup. Looks like a classic Giants pitching prospect who should develop nicely under the tutelage of Dick Tidrow and the Giants developmental staff.

2. Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State. 6'1", 205 lbs. .304/.434/.536, 5 HR, 4 3B, 9 2B, 33 K's, 27 BB's. Susac was being talked up as a potential first round pick for the Giants. I can't say I was excited about him in the first round, but I'm A-OK with him here in round 2. He doesn't seem to have any single outstanding tool but is above average across the board. Played well in the Cape Cod League which the Giants are well known to scout heavily and put a lot of stock in. He's a draft eligible soph, so may require close to first round money to sign. He gives the Giants another legitimate catching prospect in their system assuming he signs.

3. Ricky Oropesa, 1B, USC. B-L, T-R. 6'3", 230 lbs. .322/.402/.481, 7 HR's. As most of you know, I work with Ricky's mom, so am more than somewhat biased in my analysis. I love this pick and think the Giants got a steal. Ricky fits right in with John Barr's tendency to draft players whose stock may have slipped due to a disappointing junior season and also his tendency to draft power hitters with a history of contact issues in rounds 2-4. Some have compared Ricky to Chris Dominguez, but I think Ricky is a much better hitter. His sophomore numbers were much better with a .353 BA and 20 HR's. In his college career, he hit .331 with a .409 OBP. There are some mitigating issues from his junior year that are not well known: 1. BBCOR did not make a bat in the size Ricky was used to until 1 month into the season, then he had to readjust again when bats in his size finally came through. 2. The new coach at USC asked him to hit with a more level, line drive swing which again, he wasn't used to and it sapped his power numbers in addition to the effect of the new bats. Why anyone would want a hitter like Ricky to hit with a line drive swing, is beyond me, but IMO, the Giants need to encourage him to go back to the loftier swing immediately before he has any more time away from it. I would not think that would be a problem for the Giants coaches after the success of Brandon Belt with changing from a line drive approach to more of a power stroke. He led the Cape Cod League in HR's although with a low BA. Ricky loves to hit with wood and is anxious to start his pro career. I think he will sign. Could be later in the summer though. Ricky has a great arm and hit 92-94 MPH as a pitcher in HS and as a freshman at USC. He's not a burner, but managed to steal 13 bases in his college career. I think he's fast enough to play corner OF.

4. Bryce Bandilla, LHP, Arizona. 6'4", 237 lbs. 5-3, 3.66, 46.2 IP, 36 BB, 48 K's. Power lefty with a fastball that sits 92-95 MPH and reaches 97. Pitched out of Arizona's bullpen, mostly in the middle innings due to inconsistency. When he was on, he was electric though. Still has a chance to start as a pro. Solid pick for Round 4.

5. Chris Marlowe, RHP, Oklahoma State. 6'1", 170 lbs. 3-3, 5.05, 41 IP, 34 BB, 71 K's! 4 Saves. Not a big kid but has a power arm with a fastball that sits 92-95 with a peak of 97. Incredible K rates of 17.3/9 in JC ball and 15.5/9 at OSU. Curveball can also be a plus-plus pitch at times. Give him a changeup and boom, you have a high ceiling starter or a shut down closer!

6. Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State. 6'3", 225 lbs. 6-4, 3.64, 76.2 IP, 34 BB, 79 K's. Hmm...two picks from Oregon State and one for Oklahoma State in the first 6 rounds? Yup, these kids already know how to wear the orange and black! Osich's stock peaked around the time he threw a no-hitter against UCLA fairly late in the college season. A big lefty with a mid 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. His stock faded down the stretch and the latest reports I've seen were that his velocity dropped into the 80's and teams got concerned due to his history of TJ surgery. He may have just lost stamina from the long college season after the layoff for TJ, but I'm sure the Giants will examine him thoroughly and maybe even follow him for awhile this summer before signing him. If he's healthy, he's a first round talent in round 6! Some scouts think he will do better as a fast-track reliever than as a starter. I'm not sure I agree with that. I'd like to see him stay at starter as long as possible. He can always relieve if he has to.

7. Ray Black, RHP, Pittsburgh. 6'5", 225 lbs. 1-1, 6.62, 18 IP, 24 BB, 30 K's. College power reliever with a fastball that sits 94-97 MPH. He's a bit inconsistent with his command and was used sparingly this spring. Between that and all the weather postponements, it was difficult to scout him. Obviously the Giants must have stuck with it and liked what they saw.

8. Jean Delgado, SS, HS(P.R.). 5' 11", 150 lbs. Small kid with a big swing. Good infield actions but his arm may play better at 2B which would be disappointing for a kid this size. This was the first in a string of Giants picks out of Puerto Rican HS's. I would deduce that the Giants targeted Puerto Rico as an undervalued market and assigned a scout there for this season.

9. Derek Law, RHP, Miami-Dade, CC. 8-5, 2.35, 92 IP, 16 BB, 121 K's. Fell this far due to a violent delivery. Able to hold 89-93 MPH FB deep into games though. The Giants tend to be open minded about violent deliveries which helped them land Tim Lincecum. Love that K/BB!!

10. Kentrell Hill, OF, JC. 6'0", 185 lbs. Described by BA as having "loud tools". Work ethic and aptitude earn high marks.

11. Christian Diaz, OF, HS(P.R). No info.

12. Kelby Tomlinson, SS, Texas Tech. 6'3", 175 lbs, B-R, T-R. .307/.415/.372, 21 SB, 8 CS. Speed is only plus tool, but a steady defender at SS and has a patient plate approach. Rated as top position prospect in the summer Jayhawk League and starred for 2 years in JC ball before transferring to Texas Tech.

13. Adam Paulencu, RHP, HS(Canada). Not much info. FB up to 92.

14. Garrett Buechele, 3B, Oklahoma. B-R, T-R 6'0", 205 lbs .317/.383/.461, 8 HR. A bit of a polarizing player from a scouting perspective. Father is former MLB 3B Steve Buechele. I envision Garrett as somewhere between Casey Blake and Scott Rolen which means he has a good chance at a better than decent MLB career which would be terrific value from a round 14 pick.

15. Tyler Leslie, RHP, HS. I haven't heard of him even though he hails from Victorville which is fairly close to where I live. FB runs 91-94. Uncommitted and expected to sign out of HS. Perhaps he's this year's version of Matt Graham and Brandon Allen?

16. Clayton Blackburn, RHP, HS. No info.

17. Paul Davis, RHP, Florida Atlantic. 6'2", 200 lbs. 10-1, 2.87, 100.1 IP, 34 BB, 73 K's. Velocity up to 94 MPH. Maintains velocity deep into games hitting 93 in the 9'th inning of one game. Solid slider. Some scouts think his emotional nature lends itself more to relieving, but led the Sun Belt conference in CG's.

18. Cristian Otero, SS, HS(P.R.) Another Puerto Rican player. Has a better chance to stick at SS than Delgado above. Hits to all fields, but with little power.

19. Cody Hall, RHP, Southern. SR. 6'5", 220 lbs. 4-2, 3.67, 56.1 IP, 17 BB, 56 Ks'. No other info. Nice K/BB and love the size though.

20. Mitchell Beacom, LHP, UCLA. 6'8", 260 lbs. 0-2, 2.20, 32.2 IP, 9 BB, 38 K's. Hey! A UCLA pitcher! Beacom is a sidearm lefty with a "funky" delivery. FB is just 85-88, but that's not bad for a sidewinder. Profiles as a lefty specialist. Hey, we all know how valuable Javier Lopez has been! A 6'8", 260 lb sidewinder? Can't wait to see that!

21. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC. 6'3", 210 lbs. 5-4, 3.67, 91 IP, 28 BB's, 72 K's. FB 88-91 with heavy sink. Throws strikes. I really like Triggs and think he is underrated as a college pitcher. Excellent pick in round 21. Will he sign or stay in school?

22. Cameron McVey, RHP, Biola. The Giants really went for college relievers this year. McVey hits 92-93 MPH on the gun.

23. Jonathan Jones, 3B, JC(Canada). No info.

24. Keith Bilodeau, RHP, Maine. 6'4", 190 lbs. 10-3, 3.04, 91.2 IP, 36 BB, 83 K's. 89-91 MPH FB with a decent curveball. Pitched the last two summers in the Cape Cod League which is undoubtedly where the Giants saw him and liked him. Some scouts think he has projection on the velocity.

25. DeMondre Arnold, RHP, Middle Georgia, JC. 6'3", 200 lbs. Low 90's FB with some projection. Very raw. Might benefit from staying in school.

26. Joseph Biagini, RHP, UC Davis. 6'4", 215 lbs. 3-1, 7.47, 15.2 IP, 9 BB, 18 K's. Draft eligible soph. Dad played minor league ball in the Giants organization. Good student. I would think the wise choice would be to stay in school.

27. Steven Jackson Snodgrass(Jack), LHP, Austin Peay State. 6'8", 216 lbs. 4-6, 3.50, 79.2 IP, 27 BB, 67 K's. Missed the 2010 season with shoulder surgery. Lots of room to fill out the frame. Should do that from the looks of his facial picture.

28. Tyler Mizenko, RHP, Winthrop. 6'2", 200 lbs. 5-3, 3.79, 90.1 IP, 19 BB, 65 K's. Had 20 Saves in his first two college season before moving to starter. Another Cape Code League alumnus. FB hit 93/94 at the Cape. Also has a curveball, slider and changeup. High effort delivery may ticket him for the bullpen. Nice pick for this low in the draft.

29. Eldred Barnett, OF, Grambling State. B-R, T-R, 6'2", 200 lbs. .353/.437/.558, 4 HR, 14 SB, 6 CS. Seems to have some tools and his raw skills are rounding into form. Love the still pic of his swing on the Grambling website. Nice finish!

30. David Fischer, RHP, Connecticut. 6'5", 200 lbs. 2-1, 1.68, 48.1 IP, 21 BB, 43 K's. FB was at 90-93 early in the season creating some scouting buzz, but velocity leveled off and he showed some inconistency. Might return to school.

31. Phil McCormick, LHP, Missouri. 6'0", 184 lbs. SR. 8-2, 3.50, 61.2 IP, 32 BB, 56 K's.

32. Michael Merganthaler, OF, Richmond. 6'4", 215 lbs, SR. .307/.390/.496, 7 HR, 18 2B, 18 SB, 2 CS. No scouting report.

33. Brock Bennett, C, Alabama. 5'10", 165 lbs. SR. .338/.392/.369, 9 SB, 3 CS. Extremely small catcher but rated as an excellent defensive catcher. After what happened to Buster, gotta shudder at the thought.

34. Ben Thomas, 1B, Xavier. SR. 6'1", 240 lbs. .350/.415/.632,15 HR, 5 SB, 2 CS. Did some pitching too but a much better hitter than pitcher. Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year. Love the pick here!

35. Reshawn Payne, OF, Georgia Southern. SR. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 195 lbs .314/.432/.504, 16 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 33 SB, 3 CS. Looks like a speed burner with a bit of power.

36. Austin Lubinsky, RHP, Minnesota. 6'1", 195 lbs. 5-6, 4.36, 74.1 IP, 24 BB, 53 K's. FB 88-92, decent slider and effective changeup.

37. Michael Williams, C, Kentucky. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 205 lbs. .264/.321/.448, 7 HR. A junior. I would think he might elect to stay in school.

38. Bryan Nicholson, 1B, Concordia(CA). B-L .400 BA with 13 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR.

39. Ryan Holland, LHP, Memphis. SR. 6'1", 220 lbs. 5-3, 4.61, 95.2 IP, 54 BB, 78 K's. I'm guessing he throws hard but doesn't always know where it's going.

40. Alan Garcia, RHP, Eastern Arizona JC. Native of Mexico. 6'4", 210 lbs. FB touched 95 early in season but was mostly 87-91. Had an appendectomy in season that slowed him down. May go to college at Azusa Pacific.

41. Steven Neff, LHP, South Carolina. 6'2", 190 lbs. 3-1, 2.45, 36.2 IP, 10 BB, 29 K's. I always figure juniors taken this low will likely stay in school. I guess it depends partly on what opportunities they might have for more playing time as seniors.

42. Danny Sandbrink, RHP, Stanford. SR. 6'2", 200 lbs. 4-1, 3.39, 61 IP, 15 BB, 45 K's. No scouting report.

43. Drew Stiner, C, HS. 6'2", 210 lbs. Main claim to fame seems to be that he was Dylan Bundy's catcher in HS. Projects as more of a defensive catcher. I'm thinking he is likely to keep a commitment to Oklahoma State.

44. Travious Relaford, SS, Hinds CC(Mississippi)- Cousin of ex-big leaguer Desi Relaford. Has the tools to stick at SS but is raw in all phases of the game. Probably should stay in school.

45. Brian Maloney, LHP, Franklin Pierce(NH). 6'0", 185 lbs. College Senior. Pitchability lefty with 88 MPH heater. Pitches off secondary stuff. Probably profiles more as an organizational player.

46. Elliott Blair, OF, Oklahoma. SR. 6'1", 181 lbs. .333/.405/.485. Had just 33 AB's. Not sure what the story is here.

47. Marc Frazier, 3B, Newnan(GA) HS. B-L, T-R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Has a 91 MPH FB as a pitcher. Commitment is to Chipola, JC. Seems to be a workout freak. Out pitched Cam Bedrosian in a game in 2010.

48. Jacob Smith, RHP, Campbell. 6'4", 195 lbs. 2-3, 7.44, 52 IP, 26 BB, 39 K's. A junior so might return to school. BTW, Campbell signed a LHP recruit by the last name of Linthicum!

49. Benjamin Sosnick, 2B, Jewish Community HS of the Bay, SF. A truly strange pick. He happens to be the brother of sports agent Matthew Sosnick who happens to represent Scott Cousins. If you don't know who Scott Cousins is, never mind!

50. Waldyvan Estrada, OF, HS P.R. 17 years old. Might be the best prospect of the P.R. contingent. It will be interesting to see how many of them the Giants sign and how they do in the system.

Overall, I like the draft. You're obviously not going to land a Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy when drafting this late, but I'll take the Ring any day! I was hoping for a re-stock of the system with young power arms. I don't think the Giants accomplished that, but it doesn't mean it was not a good draft. I think it's clear that John Barr is an offensive oriented Scouting Director. That's what he was brought in for.

A huge factor in the success of any draft is how the first rounder turns out. Panik may have a limited ceiling but has a very high floor. I think he has an extremely high probability of becoming an above average middle infielder, especially on offense, which is a very good return when drafting this late in the first round.

Obviously if Crick turns into the next Matt Cain/Zack Wheeler pitching prospect, it would make the draft enormously successful. He seems to have a decent chance of doing just that. I think he has just as much ceiling and is just as likely to reach it as several first round arms taken ahead of the Giants pick at #29.

The Giants got late first round/supplemental round value in Susac and Oropesa with Oropesa having a very high ceiling because of his power potential.

One very intriguing angle is the Puerto Rican contingent. This is a clear change in direction and the Giants obviously feel they have tapped into an undervalued, underscouted market. The P.R. kids are a huge wild card that could make this draft epic!

The rest of the draft is the usual collection of big pitchers with big arms from places you've never heard of before. There always seems to be 1 or 2 that pan out each year and gotta give the scouting staff kudos for that!

Can't wait to get these kids signed and start of short season ball!