OK, well, I can't say I was expecting Joe Panik to be the Giants first round draft pick, even at #29. Maybe the supplemental round but not in round 1. Was it a bad pick? Maybe not as bad as it seems on the surface even though BA had him ranked at #67 in their top 200 draft picks. Is there something BA and we overlooked in Panik? I mean, John Barr seemed awfully confident that one of the top 15 players on the Giants draft board would fall to them. Was Panik in the Giants top 15 targets?
First of all, most of the players who mock drafts have linked to the Giants were already picked by the time the Giants turn came: Robert Stephenson, Kolton Wong, Joe Ross, Tyler Beede, all gone! Levi Michael went next to the Twins and I like Panik a lot better than Levi Michael even if Michael projects to stay at SS. Henry Owens went at #36, but he is not a classic Giants pitching prospect by any means. Mikie Mahtook and Brian Goodwin went later, but they were OF's and the Giants clearly have a greater organizational need on the IF and neither Mahtook or Goodwin are sure things to be better hitters than Panik. Let's take a look at a couple of lines here:
Player A: .378/.492/.560, 7 HR, 3 3B, 11 2B, 23 SB, 7 CS.
Player B: .398/.509/.642, 10 HR, 3 3B, 19 2B, 21 SB, 6 CS.
Player A is Kolton Wong, who I think we all would have been very happy with. Player B is Panik. In addition, I would submit that the Big East is a slightly tougher conference than the WAC, and that's not taking anything away from the WAC. The Big East is a serious college baseball conference! Wong is not projected as a SS any more than Panik. IN addition, Panik is physically bigger of the two players. It looks to me like the Giants got the better hitter with more power upside a few picks later than the team that drafted Wong.
The Giants supplemental first rounder, Kyle Crick was also flying under the radar, but I might like him better than any of the names that had been linked to the Giants that went earlier than pick #29. Crick is a classic Texas HS RHP with a Matt Cain build at 6'4", 220 lbs. He pounds the zone with a 94 MPH fastball that has reached 97. He has a curveball that he tends to overthrow but also can throw a sharp slider. He's dabbled in a splitter and changeup. Love this pick!
The D'Backs draft scares the heck out of me! OMG! Trevor Bauer and Archie Bradley are two premium, premium pitchers and they added Andrew Chafin, a hard throwing LHP from Kent State in the Supplemental round. The D'Backs rotation is going to be a beast in a few years and Bauer will help them as early as next season. I think he's probably ready to pitch in the majors right now! It appears the D'Backs were able to manipulate the draft rules to their advantage by essentially dumping their pick last year and then using the compensation pick to get a much better player in a much deeper draft. More power too them!
The Dodgers were obviously forced to go with a signability pick by MLB due to their financial situation. Chris Reed, the Stanford closer is a good pitcher and had climbed a lot of draft boards, but this is not a Logan White/Dodgers pick. This is a pick that was shoved down White's throat by the Dodgers' financial constraints.
I like Tyler Anderson as a pitcher, but don't like him for the Rockies. He's a finesse pitcher who depends on secondary stuff. He will suffer the same fate as Jeff Francis and other finesse pitchers the Rockies have tried in the past. The Rockies need to be drafting nothing but power pitchers, IMO.
The Padres had a bunch of extra picks. I'm not at all impressed with their haul. Not a fan of Spangenburg at all. He's likely a corner OF without any power. I was not high on Joe Ross at all and am glad the Giants did not draft him as a lot of rumors had them doing at #29. The Padres supplemental round picks also seem to be relatively low ceiling picks to me.
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apparently the giants were really high on ross
ReplyDeletehe is a work in progress, and wouldve cost a lot to develop
he might still choose to go to ucla and try to get in the 1 slot in a couple of years
fyi...report on zito was that he stayed between 84-88 on the gun...not sure how consistent the 88 was
At first, my reaction was not positive. But the more I looked into the Panik pick, the more I start to like. Great patient hitter that can play second base, which is what I sort of wanted in the first place: a pick that could be insurance for Culberson and Noonan, should they not develop as well as advertised. I will say though, I was surprised we picked him at No. 29, when it was possible to pick him in the supplemental round considering where he was being projected in the draft, but a.) maybe the Giants had a tip he was going to get selected before No. 49 and b.) The Giants have "overdrafted" guys who have ended up being pretty good (Gary Brown last year being the prime example).
ReplyDeleteOverall, I was happy with what we did. We got a good middle infielder and a good, young, projectable arm. In defense of Wong, I think what rose Wong's stock was the fact that he was named the MVP of the Cape Cod League, the premiere wood bat college summer league. I think his college stats were good, but what enticed me, as well as other scouts, was his ownage of the Cape Cod, where he excelled with wood bats and against the best college competition. That's why he has a much better stock than Panik, though Panik's college stats are just as good, if not better.
I don’t like to use the word HATE because it’s too strong of a word. To HATE something you really have to despise it. But, I really HATED this pick... initially.
ReplyDeleteThen I did some research on Panik and there are a lot of things to like about him. He has great patience, understands the strike zone, average-to-above-average speed, and good defensive skills at second. So after my initial shock of the pick and doing a bit of research I have come to the conclusion that I now DISLIKE this pick. Hey, that’s still an upgrade over HATE.
I'll hold off my opinion on the Joe Panik pick until I see how well he does at Salem Keizer. I've grown to trust John Barr and his scouting staff.. Hawaii baseball fans are proud of Kolten Wong tonight. Cardinal fans are going to love watching this kid play.. I love the Kyle Crick pick. Hope the Giants grab more high ceiling arms tomorrow. Don't understand why the Padres don't draft more high ceiling power arm pitchers because Petco is a pitchers ballpark.
ReplyDeleteI seem to fall in line with the other posters here. Initially I disliked the Panik pick, but after doing some comparisons to Wong I agree that this isn't all that bad - assuming you wanted a middle infielder. I'd prefer a corner OF or corner IF, but if John Barr thinks Panik is a better choice than Jake Hager or Trevor Harrison, I'll give Joe a chance.
ReplyDeleteI do really like the Kyle Crick pick. Love his mechanics, love his frame - I couldn't be more pleased with this selection.
Having said that, to me how we grade this year's draft will be determined by who gets selected today(Tues.). Here's hoping that Dick Tidrow works his magic today.
Thanks for the feedback everybody.
ReplyDeleteKevin,
Panik did reasonably well at the Cape too, although Wong did better.
Andrew,
A lot of people hated the Gary Brown pick too. I was at least surprised by it, much like I was surprised here. We'll just have to see how it works out. I really like the scouting video's I've seen of Panik.
Lyle,
Yup, want to see some more arms drafted in the next several rounds. Still a lot of high ceiling pitchers available as we head into round 2.
It may be that Panik was not such an outrageous overdraft as first thought:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5798
Maybe we need to just forget that Panik was drafted as a SS, which seems to be what much of the criticism of this pick is centered on. The best true shortstop in this draft (Lindor) was long gone. Most of the best college SS (including Michael) are not sure bets to stay there in the majors. There may be some HS shortstops who could stick at the position, but they are a long way from the majors. If the Giants were indeed looking for a second baseman all along, they may have gotten a pretty good one.
Lyle, completely agree with you. I'm really hoping for something resembling the 2009 Pirate's draft, where they took Sanchez who signed quickly for slot in the 1st and then a bunch of really talented HS arms throughout the rest of the draft, signing many of them to high-six and seven figure deals.
ReplyDeleteI was like most, was really puzzled by the pick, as BA had him really more an early second round pick, but I saw the Perfect Game description as well and they basically think that he rose a lot in recent weeks to the point where he could have been the top MI pick and it would not have surprised them. Also, I would note that John Sickels, in his Steals and Bad Pick thread, in answer to why Panik was not on his list, said that Panik was basically where he should have been drafted, not that far an overdraft to raise alarm, and he thought the pick was OK.
ReplyDeleteThen I looked at his stats. Like I did with the Gary Brown pick, I looked at how he did in relation to the league, and like Gary Brown he basically ruled his league. Basically led in batting line, only was slightly behind in SLG and ISO, but in top 3 across batting lines, plus was 5th in HR and up there in SB as well. That said, not a HR power hitter, but gap hitter, much as described about Brown. He was THE leading hitter in his league, even better than George Springer, who as a 5-tool guy with a lot of projection and capable of staying in CF, was more in demand. In a season where a lot of hitters could not adjust to the new bats, plus, as noted, he did well in Cape Cod league.
I think what caused Panik to be lightly regarded by the draft analysts for the most part is that he's maximized his potential, and basically he is what he is, not much more development or tools really, other than hitting, not that many plus attributes, really, other than having baseball "smarts" and "maturity", but can be a steady producer and soon for the team drafting him, and a #2 hitter, not a major offensive contributor, a cog.
But that is perfect for the Giants, as we have Sanchez signed to 2012, and Panik indicated in his press conference (good info in Baggarly article on draft) that he wants to sign quickly and start his pro career, which, if he wants to maximize his chances to make the majors, is exactly what he needs to do, sign, come in and produce in San Jose eventually (probably start in Salem-Keizer), then tackle AA-AAA next season, and move up fast. Barr even noted that they view him as a #2, which would go with our future lead-off guy, Gary Brown, who does have plus attributes.
As much as I would like the Giants to draft potential, they also have a great potential for bust as well, particularly when you are drafting the 29th pick overall. Right now, we are in critical period where we need to find cheap but useful cogs for our team in the 2013-2015 timeframe, so that we can afford to keep our high-priced players of Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, and by then Bumgarner, Sandoval and Posey.
And when you are drafting that far back in the draft, you are looking at maybe 10% chance of the guy being a good starting player anyway, so getting a potentially useful player with that pick has a lot of value for a team like the Giants who are looking for such cogs to fill in around our stars of Posey, Sandoval, and hopefully Belt and Brown. With those four guys occupying 4 of the top 5 spots, you can fill in with defensive stars at SS, 2B, plus accept less hitting but more power from the corner OF spots with that core of hitters we have now.
Plus, great picks today by Giants, Andrew Susac in particular, Rickey Oropeso, Josh Osich (39th by Sickels, 41st by BA, 207th pick), Garrett Bueschele (Sickel had as 93rd on his draft board, BA 165th; he was picked 447th), all guys who were mentioned for late first, supplemental first, second round caliber talents. Osich many mocks had the Giants selecting him with their first round pick! And Sucac was expected to be drafted around the same spot. So the Giants basically ended up drafting two prospects expected to go when their #29 pick was up, plus Panik who could conceivably (per Perfect Game) be selected there as well. Like getting three first round draft picks.
Oh, also would note that Oropesa is considered to be the hitter with the most power potential in this draft.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, I think the Giants got tremendous value in day 2 of the draft. At least 3 late first round talents plus Ricky Oropesa was at least a supplemental round talent who I though was undervalued there. They also added several big husky college closer types who can either fill out a bullpen or take a little more time and convert to starting with at least 1 dominant pitch.
ReplyDelete