Blast From the Past: AFW, Brian Sabean's Plan For the Post-Bonds Era

Even the most ardent of Brian Sabean's detractors, and there are still a lot of holdouts out there, grudgingly admit that he deserves some credit for putting together the championship team of 2010. They are quick to add, though, that he just got lucky. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut. The theory goes that he was "lucky" to have a series of high draft picks which were supposedly slam dunks to produce MLB stars and then he had a string of luck with mid-season acquisitions and it all ended up in a perfect storm of luck to produce the 2010 championship. Most of the "detractors" have even conceded that the Barry Zito signing was probably done at the insistence of Peter Magowan. A lingering argument, which on the surface seems to have some merit, is that the team was unprepared for the Post-Bonds era and went through an unnecessary drought to get the high draft picks and eventually rebound to win the 2010 World Series.

Did Brian Sabean really just forget about preparing for the post-Bonds era? Not so fast there, detractors! Remember a trio of pitching prospects, Kurt Ainsworth, Jesse Foppert and Jerome Williams, AKA AFW? By now, it should be obvious that at the core of his soul, Brian Sabean believes in building a team around pitching, homegrown pitching! With that in mind, and the knowledge that in 2003, he had assembled one of the most impressive trifectas of pitching prospects in the history of baseball can lead one to conclude that Brian Sabean had indeed prepared for the post-Bonds era and he saw the future as being based on pitching, pitching and more pitching. I know there is a nemonic known as TINSTAAP, There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, but it's pretty hard to find a similar run of monumental bad luck than the complete failure of 3 such highly ranked pitching prospects in succession.

Kurt Ainsworth was the Giants first round draft pick in 1999 out of LSU. I can't confirm this right now, but I believe he had undergone Tommy John Surgery at some point in his amateur career, but even in those days, TJ survivors frequently came back stronger than before the injury. Ainsworth didn't have overpowering stuff, but he could get his fastball up to 92 MPH and he had terrific command of two fastballs, slider, curve and changeup. In 2002, he had a record of 8-6 with an ERA of 3.41 at age 23 for AAA Fresno which is pretty good given league and park effects. He pitched in 25.2 innings for the Giants at the end of 2002 with an ERA of 2.10. He began the 2003 season in the Giants rotation and went 5-4 with an ERA of 3.82 over 66 IP, I remember one start in particular against the Dodgers where he threw something like 27 first pitch strikes and had all 5 of his pitches working. It was a thing of beauty. Alas, he went on the DL with a stress fracture of the right scapula, a rare injury, and was never the same again. He was later traded with Damien Moss to the Orioles for Sidney Ponson where his shoulder basically fell apart with both a labrum tear and a torn rotator cuff. Again, I may be wrong here, but I think I remember him also re-injuring his TJ repaired right elbow.

Jerome Williams was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 1999 draft out of high school in Hawaii. Despite being drafted out of high school, he progressed rapidly through the Giants farm system. Although he was somewhat inconsistent, the scouting reports were mostly positive having him with a FB up to 94 MPH and a rapidly developing changeup, slider and feel for pitching. During his development, he raised a few eyebrows by talking about dialing down the fastball to achieve better command and increasing his reliance on the changeup. Williams got his first callup in 2003 and pitched very well, going 7-5 with a 3.30 ERA during a Giants run that ended with a NLDS loss to the Florida Marlins in which he was the center of a controversy about who should start a must-win game. Williams showed up to spring training in 2004 looking visibly overweight, but eventually got into decent shape and put together a solid, if unspectacular, 10-7 record with a 4.24 ERA. After that, something went terribly wrong in his life. He married a girl from Fresno, seemed to lose interest in playing baseball, became grossly overweight, was demoted to the minors and eventually traded to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins. Despite numerous attempts with numerous organizations, including the Giants, he was never able to get his career back on track. He is currently signed to a minor league deal with the Angels.

Jesse Foppert was drafted in the second round of the 2001 draft out of USF. He immediately started putting up eye-popping numbers in the minor league and rocketed through the Giants farm system. Reports started surfacing in Baseball America of 97 MPH fastballs thrown with an effortless delivery. He split time in 2002 between AA and AAA and struck out a total of 183 batters. Entering 2003, he was BA's #5 overall prospect and the top ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball. He was brought up to the majors early in 2003 after an injury to Ryan Jensen. His arrival was possibly the most anticipated and most disappointing of any in the entire history of the Giants organization. He never once displayed the legendary fastball velocity that had been reported in the minors usually sitting at 87-90 MPH. His results were mediocre at best. On August 20, 2003 he went on the DL with "ulnar neuritis". He received a cortisone shot and while throwing in practice, felt a pop in the elbow and soon after underwent TJ surgery. Unlike many pitchers who have undergone the procedure, "Foppy" never made it back. He was traded from the Fresno roster to the Seattle Mariners in 2005 along with Yorvit Torrealba for Randy Winn. He never regained his once legendary form and now lives in Greenbrae where he is the pitching coach at Marin Catholic High School.

Brian Sabean wasn't content with just "AFW" in the organization. He drafted Matt Cain in 2002. After winning the NL Pennant in 2002, he traded Russ Ortiz to the Braves for Damien Moss and a young fireballing RHP named Manuel Mateo who soon rocketed to the top of BA's prospect lists and changed his name to his true identity of Merkin Valdez who was a few months older than Manuel Mateo. At one point in 2003, the Giants future rotation seemed set as far as the eye could see into the future. AFW plus Cain and Valdez were about as good as it gets in pitching prospects. Of the 5, only Cain would reach the stardom that was predicted for all of them to one degree or another. They were the Giants future that would carry on after Barry Bonds left the scene. There was even a good chance that some or all of them might help end the Bonds era with a long elusive championship!

Those who dismiss Brian Sabean's success in 2010 should also acknowledge that he also suffered a run of monumentally bad luck in the failure of "AFW". Even acknowledging TINSTAAP, which I don't personally believe in that much, it is hard to find a comparable run of bad luck in the development of a group of highly ranked pitching prospects.

We will never know how history might have been different had "AFW" succeeded, if even one of that trio had "made it." Perhaps they would not have been as dominant as Timmy, MadBum and Buster. Perhaps they would have been just good enough to help the Giants contend but never win it all, thus depriving the Giants of the chance to draft the core of the championship team. We'll never know, but as I like to say, "all things work together for good."