Scouting the Trade Market

With just about 2 weeks left until the trade deadline, I thought it might be fun to take a look at potential trades that might be available to the Giants as we get closer. First, we need to look at some basic parameters to narrow down our choices: 1. Will the Giants be "buyers" or "sellers"? 2. What types of players would the Giants be looking for? 3. What players would the Giants be willing to give up? I'll address each of these questions:

1. Although it could change over the next two weeks, as of today, the Giants look like definite "buyers". By "buyers", I mean that they are looking to acquire established major league talent that will upgrade the team for THIS season. Generally that means they are also willing to sacrifice FUTURE talent in order to "BUY" present talent.

2. The Giants biggest need is to to further upgrade the offense, although with the addition of Buster Posey playing mainly at catcher, they are a lot closer to where they need to be than they were a month ago. In order for a "buy" trade to work, the player you acquire has to be a significant upgrade on what you already have. Looking over the Giants roster, one place where that would be easiest to accomplish would be either in the OF where Huff and Sanchez look solid, but Nate, Gamer and Burrell could be rather easily upgraded. The other would be first base, although Travis has made a case for the Giants putting their faith in him. Their experience last year with Ryan Garko may have taught them that they could do worse than Travis at the first sack. The Giants also have protection at first because Huff can easily move back there plus Posey is going to get some starts there when he his legs need a rest from behind the plate. So it looks like the best position to try to upgrade is OF. Sabean has said he wants a lefty hitter, so that narrows it considerably, although the talk of Corey Hart would seem to indicate that Sabes isn't wedded to the idea of a LH bat exclusively.

3. Just my opinion, but the Giants absolutely should not sacrifice a starter from the current 25 man roster because that just creates another hole, and no, Dontrelle Willis is not a replacement in waiting. That means they will have to put together a package from the farm system that would appeal to another team. With the graduations of Posey and Bumgarner, the Giants system is temporarily weakened as most of their high ceiling prospects are in the lower minors and still a bit on the raw side. Do the Giants have any "untouchable" players left in their system? There are some who I would hate to see traded, but no, I don't see anyone as being untouchable depending on who they get in return. A few names that might attract the attention of a "selling" team include Zack Wheeler, Tommy Joseph, Thomas Neal, Brandon Belt(ducks and runs), Eric Surkamp, Clayton Tanner, Henry Sosa, Charlie Culberson, Francisco Peguero and Ehire Adrianza. I would think that a trade bringing in a significant upgrade would have to involve at least 3 of those names. Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Eugenio Velez, Ryan Rohlinger, Emmanuel Burriss or Matt Downs might be considered as sweeteners in a deal.

Now, let's take a look at what teams might be "sellers" and what players they might be willing to sell. I count 13 teams as being essentially out of playoff contention and thus potential sellers:

1. Toronto Blue Jays: Lyle Overbay only plays 1B, and is not a clear upgrade on Ishikawa, let alone Aubrey Huff. Jose Bautista has hit 24 HR's, but has a low BA and tends to be very streaky. The Blue Jays have a nice looking young lefthanded hitting LF named Fred Lewis....oh, nevermind!

2. Baltimore Orioles: Miguel Tejada could play 3B with Panda sliding over to first, but Tejada's OPS is under .700 and he's aging fast. Ty Wigginton and play multiple positions and has some power, but hits RH and with an OPS under .800. Would you give up multiple prospects for Wiggy? I would not!

3. Kansas City Royals: Here's where it starts to get interesting. David DeJesus is a plus defender in the OF, is a LH bat, and has an OPS of .855 in a relatively pitching friendly park. He's still fairly young and is signed to a favorable contract for next season. The problem with DeJesus is putting together a package that the Royals would accept, as they are not in a position of having to make a trade now. It would probably reguire a package headed by Jon Sanchez or MadBum to get this one done. Sabean has indicated that idea doesn't sit well with him and I'm not sure it does with me either, although DeJesus seems taylor made for AT&T Park. Remember that DeJesus only adds doubles power without much compensatory speed though. Chris Haft has suggested Jose Guillen. Guillen would be strictly a 2 month rental, and he has a very checkered past in terms of health and behavior. I'm not against a rental as much as Sabean seems to be, but I'm not sold on Guillen being enough of a sure thing to take that plunge. I could easily see him getting hurt or landing in Bochy's doghouse right off the bat and then they are back to square one except with a weaker farm system.

4. Cleveland Indians: I'm not sure the Giants are interested in dealing with the Indians after last year's Garko debacle, and Cleveland doesn't seem to match up very well. Austin Kearns had a big first half, but has cooled off considerably. He has bust written all over him. Travis Hafner is strictly an AL player confined to DH'ing at this point in his career. That's it for Cleveland!

5. Oakland A's: Coco Crisp can switch-hit, pick it in the OF, and is signed to a reasonable contract through next year. He's been hurt more than healthy for at least 3 years now. Not sure Billy Beane is looking to trade him although Billy seems to be able to pull the trigger on just about any trade these days. Crisp is sort of a poor man's David DeJesus but with more speed. In some ways I like him better that DeJesus, especially if the Giants could get him for a couple of second tier prospects. The injury bug scares me though. Jack Cust could play LF in the NL, just not very well. He'd be a very nice LH bat though. I seriously doubt Cust is the type of player Sabean would even consider though.

6. Seattle Mariners: Russ Branyan is a nice bat, but very streaky and is pretty much a DH. Jose Lopez is having a down season. That's just about it. What was Dave Cameron drinking when he named the Mariners the 6'th best organization in baseball over at fangraphs.com, anyway?

7. Florida Marlins: There is the perennially shopped Dan Uggla, but his power upgrade would be largely offset by a huge downgrade from Freddy's D at 2B. The Giants aren't going to go there! Jorge Cantu can play 1B, but is having a down season. Still he might be in line for a big August and September and coming to a contender might just light a spark. I'd consider it for the right price. Cody Ross is a name the Giants should look at closely. He's a RH hitter, but a solid bat with some speed. He might not cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

8. Washington Nationals: Adam Dunn is probably not available, and the Giants have passed on him too many times. He's openly said he hates AT&T. I just don't see this happening, although the idea is intriguing to say the least. He would certainly transform the Giants lineup immediately. Josh Willingham might be more available, but is a RH batter and a huge liability in the field. He's not a Brian Sabean type player, for better or worse. Mike Morse might be available on the cheap, but would probably just clutter up and already cluttered Giants roster.

9. Chicago Cubs: Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Xavier Nady are all likely available, but all having terrible seasons, except Soriano and he has that contract. Probably not a match here. Theriot might be a consideration if either Rent or Uribe went down in the next two weeks. Zambrano is certainly available on the pitching side, but is a huge risk and has a terrible contract.

10. Milwaukee Brewers: The BrewCrew has some serious talent to sell off. Corey Hart has been analyzed to death. He seems to be on the backburner for now. He's a great candidate to regress in the second half, especially playing in AT&T and the NL West. It does not appear that Sabes is willing to part with what it would likely take to get him, a major league starting pitcher. There have been rumblings that the BrewCrew might even be willing to part with Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder. Much as I salivate at the thought of either of those guys in the Giants lineup, I don't see the Giants being able to put together a package that doesn't create a bigger hole on the pitching side. What about Jim Edmonds on the cheap?

11. Houston Astros: Carlos Lee has a bad contract and doesn't want to come to SF. Lance Berkman might well retire rather than accept a trade. I would take him at first base for the right price though. There is some talk that Hunter Pence might be available. He's having an off season but is a good young talent with 5 tools. I would think it would take either Sanchez or MadBum to get that deal started.

12. Pittburgh Pirates: The Pirates are clearly rebuilding. One guy who might be available for a package of prospects only is Garret Jones. I really thought Jones would crash and burn this year after a breakout last year, but like Andres Torres has taught us, there are always a few late bloomers in this game. He's not much of a fielder, but he's a lefthanded bat that's a clear upgrade on any of our OF's not named Aubrey Huff or Andres Torres. Ryan Doumit is a catcher who could move to 1B and switch hits, so is effectively a LH bat.

13. Arizona D'Backs: Trading within the division is always a longshot. Despite some Stephen Drew talk, I don't find that too realistic. Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds would seem to fit the general description of what the Giants are looking for. Reynolds brings an atrocious batting average which I'm sure Sabes counts against him more than most sabermetric oriented fans. Adam LaRoche always seems to come alive after the All-Star break, but has already pretty much stated that he is afraid of AT&T Park.

That's my list. The Giants might be in the market for another reliever, but those possibiliities are almost too numerous to count. Who do you like on this list? Have I left anybody out?

If the Giants seriously want to acquire a LH bat upgrade that doesn't cost them Sanchez or Bumgarner, I think they need to be talking to the Pittsburgh Pirates about Jones or Doumit.