The conclusion of yesterday's dismal loss marked the true mid season point, 81 games played out of 162. Had I written just 2 weeks ago, I would have said the State of the Giants was terrific both long and short term. The Giants long term fundamentals have not changed since the beginning of the season(*), in fact, they may be a bit better. Unfortunately, their short term outlook for the 2010 season went from very promising to hanging on for dear life in just those two short weeks that now seem like a full season gone by.
After an ominous 5 game losing streak against Arizona and Oakland May 19-23, the Giants won or split the next 6 series. Then, after winning 1 of 3, as anticipated, in Toronto, they came to Houston to play the Astros, a team they had swept twice already. They dropped the last two games of that series then proceeded to win just 2 of their next 10 against Boston, LA and Colorado. Meanwhile, the amazing Padres continued to win game after low scoring game. The Giants dropped in the standings like a stone Going all the way from a 39-30 record, 2'nd place and less than 2 games out of the lead, to 4'th place 7.5 games behind. They now face 7 more road games against the BrewCrew and the Nats, neither of which promise any respite, especially coming off a losing war of attrition yesterday. By the time the Giants return home next week for the All-Star break, they could very well be out of the race altogether. Talk of the Giants being buyers at the trade deadline have started to turn to who they can sell off in the quest to build for the future.
The Giants early season success was built on several players hitting better than anticipated including Bengie Molina, Aaron Rowand and especially Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Juan Uribe. Molina's season quickly went south and he as since been traded for a reliever and a prospect. Rowand's season, and possibly his career, appears to have been effectively ended by a Vicente Padilla fastball to the left cheekbone, not that it wasn't hanging by a thread anyway. They got a temporary shot in the arm from the promotion of Buster Posey, but that early .450 BA was obviously unsustainable, although he appears to be a solid player for years to come. Even Uribe is hitting just .212 over the last month. Right now, the Giants offense has shrunk down to Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff with intermittant contributions from Pablo, Posey and the recently acquired Pat Burrell, with Nate and Travis supplying strong bench work.
The starting pitching was phenomenal early on with Tim, Zito, Cain and Sanchez all posting ERA's<3. Recently those ERA's have been climbing, partly just due to normal regression. Possibly too many stress innings in tight, low scoreing ballgames have taken their toll in fatigue, although that hasn't been a problem for San Diego. The bullpen has been inconsistent, but mostly quite good.
Down on the Farm, Posey and Madison Bumgarner appear to have graduated, as expected. Last year's stars from San Jose got off the slow starts in AA Richmond, but show some signs of heating up, particularly Thomas Neal, last year's breakout player. Brandon Belt has been the big story on The Farm this year as he started his professional career by absolutely destroying Cal League pitching. He's just been promoted to AA and had a great game last night, so we'll see. If he does well in AA, he will be easily a top 5 Giants prospect next offseason. The rest of the Giants higher ceiling prospects such as Zack Wheeler and Tommy Joseph are very young and will take a year or two to become elite prospects, so the Giants prospect rankings may well take a temporary tumble, a natural cycle when two elite prospects graduate in 1 year.
The 2010 Free agent draft found the Giants drafting a bit lower than they were recently used to. In this draft, they went for OF speed at the college level by drafting Gary Brown of CS Fullerton at #24 in the first round and Jarrett Parker from Virginia in round 2. Brown should be ready to take over CF in AT&T park in about 2 seasons. Parker is more of a long term project, but may have a better power ceiling. The Giants also drafted their usual assortment of strong pitching arms. One draft pick to watch for long term development, but a big time payoff is Charles Jones in round 6, a HS power-hitting OF.
The Giants remained active on the international front as a couple of players with 6 figure bonuses got off to promising starts i the Dominican Summer League, RHP Marvin Barrios and OF Leonardo Fuentes. They also signed a highly touted Cuban defector prospect in Reiner Roibal who has yet to appear in a professional game as a Giants employee. The international signing period just started July 2, but the Giants are rumored to be in on a couple of the higher rated prospects. No official word and it's best to believe it when you see it when it comes to international signings. Sometimes even seeing it isn't good enough as deals often fall through even after being announced.
In summary:
The Giants short term outlook has taken a dramatic turn for the worse in the last two weeks and appears very doubtful.
The Giants long term fundamentals still look very promising. They have a nice corps of young players at the major league level complimented the the recent graduations of Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. They continue to replenish the farm system through good drafting and an active international scouting program.
I am still quite bullish on the future of this team even though I am about this close to recommending a firesale at the trade deadline. I would give it until the All-Star break, but if the Giants return from the road trip in worse shape in the standings than they are now, all veteran players not under contract for next year need to be auctioned off including Huff, Burrell and Uribe. Nate,Travis and Bowker need to be given extended looks to evaluate what the Giants can count on for next year and what they will need to acquire. Posey and Bumgarner need to be given the rest of the year to settle into the beginning of their Giants careers which will, hopefully, be long and successful.
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I hate to see them go, but Huff and Uribe need to be shopped aggressively if the Giants continue to falter.
ReplyDeleteI figure Huff could pull 2 Main type of prospects and Uribe may be able to net 1 as well. If we can get a B-level prospect for Affeldt and a B+ type prospect for Burrell, that would be a boon at the deadline. Heck, maybe we can deal Torres for something as well, and that would be found money...
As for next year, Neal and Belt could be stretches to win jobs out of ST, and maybe Sosa and/or Pucetas can take jobs in the pen / 5th starter (if we get blown away with a deal for Cain or Sanchez).
Uribe could be a fit for Philly. They are reportedly looking for an IF who can play 2B and 3B. Maybe we could get Tyson Gillies for him?
ReplyDeleteHuff seems like just what the doctor ordered for the Angels. Maybe a package of Trevor Reckling and former first round pick Jon Bachanov?
Those are a couple of possibilities I've thought of.
Another thing to consider about shopping Huff and Uribe and possibly others: I assume both Uribe and Huff would be Type B FA's. The Giants might not be dismayed if either accepted arbtitration for next year, so they would have to calculate what kind of prospect they might get in return vs who they might get with a supplemental round draft pick vs re-signing them or having them accept arbitration.
ReplyDeleteWith Huff, we also need to evaluate where Pill, Ishi and Belt are.
ReplyDeleteHuff has apparently LOVED his time with the Giants, so maybe we want to resign him to a longer term contract. But if they can get prospects, AND save money, AND play a kid from the system, maybe we need to just shake hands and move on.
When was the last time the fan-base fell in love with a FA signing this fast? OK, MAYBE Affeldt last year, but who else?
Huff has been a revelation, that's for sure. He's had his ups and downs in his career. Hate to rain on a parade of a guy who seems so happy to be here, but if you could get a nice haul of prospects for him, it might be a good time to sell high. That's, of course, if the Giants continue to slide out of the pennant race. Maybe today's game gives a sliver of hope? We should have a much clearer read by the All-Star break.
ReplyDeleteRumors have Brian Sabean considering pulling the trigger on a major buy trade with the BrewCrew BEFORE the All-Star break though!
I don't know anything about Gillies, but judging my his numbers, I am not blown away. He Ks way too much for a #1, and after this year's draft, we are kinda deep in speedy 21 yo CFs...
ReplyDeleteDon't know anything about Bachinov or Reckling either... What happened to Reckling this year? Is he hurt? He looked pretty good, then he completely lost it this year. Bachinov looks promising, but why the late start? He sat for 2 years out of HS. Was he hurt?
Bachinov underwent TJ surgery shortly after being drafted. He seems healthy now. Just a couple of years behind in his development.
ReplyDeleteAs for Gillies, it's just one possibility, but the Giants aren't going to get Domonic Brown for Juan Uribe.