Wait! Gary Brown? I think part of the reason why I was projecting him to go the the A's at #10 was because I wanted him off the board at #24, because deep down inside, I knew the Giants were lusting after his sparkly BA and elite OF speed. OK, deep breaths here. I've picked myself up, dusted myself off and tended to my wounds after my tumble down the stairs. Time to take an objective look at this one. I mean, he's a CF with a great BA, great speed and defense, no power and no plate discipline. The Giants don't have enough of those in the organization, do they?(tongue in cheek here).
OK. I'll do the Bad first:
1. Brown is a slap and dash hitter with elite speed but no power and an OBP barely above his BA.
2. The Giants hoard this type of player like some people hoard toilet paper. What would you do if you ran out?!!!!
3. Yeah, he's a nice pick, but is he really significantly better than, say, Rico Noel who will likely be available after the 10'th round, or at least the 6'th round. Is he really that much better than Tyler Holt, who may well be there in the third round? I'm not sure it's a slam dunk that I'd have taken Brown over Holt at #24!!
4. Brown is a Boras client, so it's not like this is an easy signability pick. The Giants crying need at least at the MLB level and really throughout the organization is still power. Wouldn't a Jedd Gyorko, who hit 18 HR's this year have made more sense here? Or if they are going to shell out bucks on a Boras client, what about doing the same on a HS hitter with a great ceiling in Castellanos or Cabrera?
The Good:
1. He is a good player who fits the OF needs of teams who play in the monstrous parks of the NL West.
2. The Giants have a need for speed. Andres Torres is proving just how valuable speed on the basepaths can be.
3. Being a first round draft pick almost guarantees he will get a longer look that Raj Davis did.
4. BA had him ranked as the #14 overall draft prospect. Taking the 14'th prospect at #24? Nicely done, Giants!
I was really hoping for a toolsy player with more power potential. Failing that, I was hoping for another high ceiling arm. So my heart hates this pick. My head tells me it wasn't at all bad for this late in the first round. Let's see what they back it up with in the next few rounds. This draft has comparable talent available well into round 4 or even beyond.
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nice writeups, doc! glad you survived draft day. I wish I could see more evidence of hitting talent in Brown. Maybe Bam Bam will improve Brown's approach.
ReplyDeletesince you are a classy guy: Hoard (to collect), horde (big mob of brutes), whored ( )
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DrB, I posed this question on Fangraphs, but don't expect an answer. What signifies power in college? Like, for example, Posey had a lot of homers in college but was not projected to provide much power in the majors, at least HR power. I ask because Brown had an ISO of 247 in 2010, which seems like good power, considering he didn't hit that many homers. Seems like power is a subjective scouting thing, but I'm wondering if there is any way to see this with stats.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I think you and I are on the same side of this debate (usually regarding Schierholtz), but all the commentators have been bashing his low walk rate but ignore that his batting average is skyhigh, which I/we think is better to do. And, if you look at his college career, his walk rate has gone down as his batting average has gone up, and it was an OK 8.5% in 2008.
I think that it's better to get hits than to get walks in terms of getting on base, as that can drive in runs, and I believe you agree.
Of course, there is that line between when it is more productive offensively to draw more walks than to hit, but if a batter can hit .300+, a low walk rate could still get you to a mid-300 OBP, which is OK, it is average.
But people treat it as if a hitter is trading outs for walks when they practice better plate discipline. That is not necessarily true if the batter can hit the ball pitch for a hit regularly. With a .438 BA and not that many strikeouts, Brown looks pretty able to do that with college pitchers, at least. But his 2008 performance suggests that he can avoid the pitches that he can't hit when he is overmatched. What do you think?
In any case, I'm with you so far, why didn't they select Gyorko, Castellanos, Cabrera, or even Cox?
And, Jarrett Parker seems like a similar type player, though with more power, so I assume you were not overjoyed on that either.
This was posted by Baseball Draft Report:
ReplyDeleteBrown started the year as one of my favorite semi-sleeper prospects (I thought for a long time he might go within spitting distance of his more publicized teammate, Christian Colon), but somehow managed to turn me off while hitting .438. Go figure. It’s just so darn hard finding any amateur prospect with a walk rate as low as Brown’s having any kind of sustained big league success. He could be a major outlier as the rare no patience/little power player to succeed professionally, but that’s not something I’m willing to bet a first round pick on finding out.
Sorry about the gramar gaffe. I kind of knew it wasn't right, but was too tired to look it up. Fixed!
ReplyDeleteOGC, I absolutely agree that if you can hit .430 by swinging away, there is absolutely no reason to try to take walks. Brown seems like a smart kid and very motivated to get better. It may not be a long term problem, but why do I keep thinking of Dan Gladden as a comp?
I'll comment more on Parker in a separate post, but yeah, I'm not thrilled with that pick either.
Ah, that's a name I don't hear too often, Dan Gladden. Yeah, I could go for that comp.
ReplyDeleteOne factor I don't think gets too much press or notice is that Brown is being advised by Scott Boras. As much as Boras's existence as an agent disturbs me, because of what he's doing to the game, raising salaries overall, I will admit that he seems to be very clued into baseball and what works there. As I've noted, Brown knows how to take walks, from his performance in 2008, but he's choosing not to when he can hit .438, and I think Boras will advise him on how best to maximize his value/salary.
I think they see all the Juan Pierre comps of no patience/little power, and that is why Brown made the point in his press conference to note that he's no slap hitter, he hits line drives to the gaps and gets his doubles and triples. That would work particularly well here at AT&T Park, obviously.
Took a look at Gladden's career numbers, and yeah, that's a pretty good comp if he's the no patience, no power type of hitter many people are characterizing him as. The Giants are making a big bet that they can mold him into a more patient hitter (which I think is possible given his 2008 season) with more power (not as possible).
So, DrB, what does one has to see in college to say that he'll show power in the pros? Hitting homers in college don't seem to do it, some can translate it and others fail miserably. Is it hitting for power in Cape Cod? Is it scouting and seeing and knowing what kind of swing can do that?