If you just look at the score, you might think this was an exciting game, but although it had a few exciting moments, you would be wrong. It was a ragged game with both SP's in the showers by the end of the 4'th inning. In the end, an off night for Tony Watson was the difference in the game. Key Lines:
Steven Duggar CF- 2 for 4, 2 2B. BA= .320. Duggar was involved in all 3 of the Giants runs, driving in 1 and scoring 2. In Game 1 of the series, he smoked 2 doubles down the RF line. Both doubles in this game went to LF. The first was a blooper down the LF line but the second was smoked over the head of LF Kris Davis who might have caught it if he was a better fielder, but it was definitely smoked. Duggar also enhanced his reputation on defense with a running catch into the L-CF gap to take away extra bases. First of all, he ran a long way and secondly he used his height to reach up and make it look easy. I am not sure any either Gregor Blanco or Gorkys Hernandez would have made that catch and I'm pretty sure Austin Jackson would not have.
Jeff Samardzija RHP- 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K. ERA= 6.25. This could have been a lot worse as his GO/AO was 0/5 and the flyballs were not pop-ups. Then in the second inning, Shark couldn't find home plate prompting a mound visit from Buster and another from pitching coach Curt Young. His velocity was down to 90 MPH and his command was way off prompting open speculation by Kruk and Kuip that he might not be physically OK. Shark was finally lifted for a PH, which turned out to be the right move as Austin Slater drove in the Giants 3'rd and final run of he game, just as he seemed to be starting to make some decent pitches.
Derek Holland LHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K's. ERA= 4.09. Holland was electric again painting both corners with a 93 MPH FB that seemed to get on hitters more quickly than that while mixing in a sharp breaking ball and effective changeup. Watching that, you could not help but think that Holland should be starting and Shark should be working things out in the bullpen.
Tony Watson LHP- 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.08. Watson has been Mr Reliable this season but not in this game as he had trouble finding the strike zone and with 3 straight hits to open the 7'th inning, the second being a HR that was crushed off the bat of Mark Canha to put the A's up by the final score of 4-3.
Ray Black RHP- 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 13.50. Black was summoned to get out of Tony Watson's jam in the 7'th inning and what an impressive performance it was! The way he finished off the second batter was one of the most impressive things I've seen this season: A 101 MPH FB at the letters, swing and miss, followed by a tight slider just off the outside corner at the knees, swing and miss. Whoa! That is just unfair and I love it!
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The D'Backs and Rockies won their games while the Dodgers lost to the Angels so the standings go D'Backs in first place by 0.5 games over the Dodgers, 2.5 over the Rockies and 3.5 over the Giants. The Pathetic Padres lost again and are in last place, 14 games off the pace.
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Andrew Suarez goes for a series win today against lefty Sean Manaea.
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PS: After the game, Jeff Samardzija said he couldn't get his shoulder loose and Manager Bruce Bochy said there's a "discussion they need to have" about the rotation going forward. Stay tuned!
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After 20 consecutive scoreless appearances, Watson has blown 2 save opportunities. He's on track to more IPs than he has since 2015. Hopefully, he's just tired and will get a nice 5-6 day break (along with the rest of the 'pen).
ReplyDeleteGiants are 6-7 for July, averaging 3.8 runs/game, and that was aided greatly by 4 winning efforts scoring 34 runs (13, 9, 7, and 5) -- in the other 9 games, 2-7, they scored just 15!
3.8 runs/game is not enough -- they averaged 3.9 in their 98-loss 2017.
Looking ahead, IF Holland replaces Samardzija (or the Shark solves his shoulder problem), the rookies continue what they've done, Cueto stays healthy, and the relievers don't have to pitch 4+ innings per game, they might get by with the current 4.1 runs/game and win 86 games (record to date: .515, is just 83.4 wins but Bumgarner is back for the extra 3 wins).
At this point they are 3 games out of the WC: Bumgarner could make the difference for the scuffling rotation as it is.
Is 86 wins enough to beat out 5 of 9 teams that are above or near .500: Chicago, Milwaukee, St Louis, LA, Arizona, Colorado, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Washington? (6 of 10 if Pittsburgh -- 2 games below .500 -- is included.)
Things will change this month but the Giants are unlikely to add more than their injured. IMO, they need to get 6 games better in the last third of the season to insure making it, somehow, with what they have plus the injured.
Sportsline and FiveThirtyEight make it 1 in 4 chance. That's about right. And good enough that the Giants won't be sellers and can't be buyers (if they adhere to the CBT limit).
Last I read, before today's loss, Fangraphs had the Giants just under 1-in-5 (18%) to make the WC.
Deletei see mccutchen and dyson being available to for trades but, we could see some bigger trades at the winter meetings.
DeleteSportsline 23.7% and FiveThirtyEight 21% to make the WC after today's loss. Both were closer to 25% before the game.
DeleteI suspect that Fangraphs takes in more subtleties than FiveThirtyEight and Sportsline (where you can actually make a bet) takes into more consideration public feelings (bets).
Personally, the intersection of a Giants winning sphere (requiring a turnaround much like 2016 except the opposite) and the make-even or losing spheres of 6 of all the 10 NL teams that have any chance, is 1 in 20 or 25, not 5 times that!
I would look for offers from anyone willing to take a substantial portion of any of the BIG salaries with a prospect return of 20% and everyone else with good prospect return.
The Giants ship is unlikely to turn until after 2021 when 5 players will get $95,000,000 and all be OLD.
Short of a 10 game losing streak out of the gate post-All-Star Break, the Giants won't be sellers. Take that to the bank! They might find another salary or two to dump but only to set up another acquisition.
DeleteBlack: Man, I've been waiting for you post this. That slider last night was one of filthiest sliders I've seen in a long time. He made Matt Chapman look like a little leaguer. He also hit 101 on the stadium gun!
ReplyDeleteSamardzija & Holland: I agree. I'm even wondering if they need to send Samardzija to the 60-day DL and end his season. He's just not right.
Duggar: I agree on that double-robbing fly-ball he pulled in. He made it look routine even though he was shaded to Right-Center by about 5 yards or so. I don't think the Giants have another fielder who could have caught that on the run, if at all.
shark needs surgery and if he isn't any better next season, eat his contract
Deleteshark likely gets shut down for surgery and stratton gets called up to pitch out of the pen with holland sliding back into the rotation.
ReplyDelete