Saturday, June 25, 2016

Game Wlrap 6/24/2016: Giants 5 Phillies 4

They say it's a game of inches, but in the era of instant replay it's become a game of millimeters and a few millimeters is how much Ramiro Pena's throw to first beat Tyler Goedel by to get the final out of the game and prevent the tying run from scoring as the Giants won their 4'th game in a row and 12'th of 13.  Key Lines:

Brandon Belt- 2 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .305.  Belt cleared the bases in the 7'th inning with a drive that bounced up against the CF wall.  Make no mistake, Belt is THE MAN in the Giants lineup now.  He has turned himself into an elite hitter.  He ranks 4'th in MLB in 1B fWAR and 2'nd in offensive fWAR for first basemen.  For some reason, defensive metrics don't like him, although he certainly passes the eye test on defense.  He has a strong case for being an All-Star but Goldy, Will Myers and Anthony Rizzo edge him out in fWAR and all have more dingerz.  The top 4 1B by fWAR are all in the NL.

Angel Pagan- 3 for 4, SB(7).  BA= .282.  Pagan drove in the first run on an infield hit and drove in Belt from 3B for the Giants final run which proved to be the difference in the ballgame.  Pagan showed no signs of hammy problems as he booked it down to 1B on the IF hit then stole 2B.  Henry Schulman is reporting via MLBTR that the Giants are open to a short term deal with Pagan for next season depending on how the rest of the season plays out, including possible trades.

Jake Peavy- 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 5.22.  It was a typical Peavy game, mixing pitches, shaving corners, pitching out of jams.  In another game, Bochy might have pulled Peavy after Bourjos tripled with 1 out in the 7'th and the Giants trailing 2-1, but Boch knew his bullpen was gasses and left Peavy in there to strike out PH Paredes and get Odubel Herrera on a flyball out.

Santiago Casilla- 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 2.43.  Casilla has always tended to lose effectiveness if he has to pitch 3 consecutive days.  Bochy tried to keep the work to a minimum by having Lopez face the LH leadoff hitter, but Casilla loaded the bases with 2 outs.  Bochy came out to the mound.  From the look on Casilla's face, he clearly thought Boch was coming to get him, but Boch left him in there and somehow left a smile on Casilla's face.  He then retired the last batter, Goedel on the millimeters play at 1B to end the game.

Bruce Bochy- Bochy outmaneuvered Phillies manager Pete Mackanin in the pivotal 7'th inning.  After Brown led off the inning with a single, he announced Jarrett Parker as a PH.  Mackanin countered with a lefty, Araujo.  Boch pulled Parker even though it burned one of just 4 bench players and sent up Buster Posey to PH.  Buster then delivered a single to CF which kept the line moving toward Brandon Belt and his 3-run double.  Mackanin admitted after the game that he didn't think Boch would burn Parker or use Buster as a PH there. Combine that with Bochy's bullpen management and you can chalk this one up as a Win where the manager was the difference in the game.

Lesbian/Gay Chorus of San Francisco- It was LGBT night which I ordinarily would not comment on, but I have to give a shout out to the Lesbian/Gay Chorus of San Francisco who hit it out of the park on a very inspiring song during the pregame ceremonies, especially the soloist who was phenomenal.  I haven't been able to find a video of that performance but if it's out there, it's definitely worth the time and effort to look it up.


The Win gave the Giants their best 40 game stretch, 31-9 since 1954 when they went 33-7.  We all know how the 1954 season turned out, right?  As mentioned above, it was also their 12'th win in 13 games, 1 win short of their best run of the season so far.  The Win also extended their lead over the Dodgers to 7 games which I think is their biggest lead of the season in the NL West as the Dodgers lost to the Pirates 8-6.


Madison Bumgarner toes the rubber tonight facing Jeremy Hellickson.


  1. according to this stathead, giants are just simply lucky and are a mirage

    yup, just like they were a mirage in 2010, 12 and 14


    1. Yeah, seems like we had this discussion in 2010, 2012, 2014 and again last year with KC.

      Here's just one example of how events that are treated as random by most statistical analysis, might not be: Last night, Jake Peavy had a total of 4 K's. But one of those K's came in the 7'th inning against the PH Paredes with 1 out and a runner on 3B. Krukow was right up front from the moment Paredes stepped into the batter's box that this was a "strikeout situation" and Peavy would be pitching for the strikeout. Sure enough, Peavy appeared to be trying for a strikeout and he got one. With 2 outs, he did not need to strike out the next batter and got him on a flyball. Now, is Peavy going to be successful in striking out every batter he faces with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs? No, he won't, but he will be successful more often than when he is trying to pitch for soft contact rather than strikeouts. The statistics treat those 4 K's as random events and if Peavy got all 4 of his K's in "strikeout situations" they would be counted as "luck" by the formulas Maybe there would be some luck in that, but clearly the Peavy's strikeout of Paredes was not a completely random event either. The 17 non-K outs would also be considered random occurrences that go into the BABIP equations, but if a higher percentage of BIPs come without runners in scoring position or with 2 outs, because the pitcher is not trying as hard for the srikeout, they will result in producing fewer than expected runs. Again, BABIP is largely luck, but not entirely and a pitcher can "bend the curve" with strategic pitching.