Drew Pomeranz traded zeros with Zack Greinke for 5 innings, but a pair of unearned runs contributed to a stumble by the bullpen and proved to be too much for Steven Vogt's 3-run HR in the bottom of the 9'th inning to overcome. Key Lines:
Steven Vogt C- 2 for 3, HR(2), HBP. BA= .277. Vogt caused a stir in the 9'th with a no-out 3-run jack to cut the Giants deficit to 4-3. The rally then stalled out. At this point, Vogt is clearly a better hitter than Buster Posey, but per Fangraphs, Buster is still the superior defensive catcher which more than makes up for his offensive deficiencies in fWAR.
Drew Pomeranz LHP- 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 6.25. Pomeranz matched zeros with Zack Greinke for 5 innings but threw 103 pitches in the process which forced him to turn the game over to the bullpen. By contrast, Greinke threw just 90 pitches in 7 shutout innings. So yeah, pitch counts and getting deep into games still counts for something.
Bullpen- 4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Errors by CF Kevin Pillar and SS Brandon Crawford contributed to this subpar showing by the bullpen. Pillar now has 5 on the season which is tied for #2 worst among all MLB OF's. Crawford now has 10 which ties him for 4'th worst among all MBL SS's. Crawford's overall defense remains a positive per UZR, but Pillar's CF UZR has fallen well into negative territory.
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Madison Bumgarner tries for a series split today facing fellow lefty Robbie Ray.
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I appreciate several thoughtful responses to my comment at the end of yesterday's post. Here are a few additional thoughts:
1. I agree the Giants "core" aged a bit more quickly than most analysts would expect.
2. I agree the juiced ball made the style of baseball the Giants used to win 3 championships completely obsolete and is a huge factor in where we are today.
3. I agree Brandon Belt's contract may have been a "bridge too far" although his contract is still "above water" at this point.
4. The trades and FA signings Bobby Evans made from 2016 on were risky, but exactly what he was mandated to do by ownership. Those risks almost all cut the wrong way and he took the fall.
5. I did an exhaustive pick-by-pick analysis of the Giants drafts from 2010-2016 this past offseason and concluded their failures were due much more to draft position than to poor drafting. It is unlikely a different scouting/drafting team would have done better.
6. The Giants failure to sign and develop international talent over the past 10 years is a big factor in the weakness of the farm system but they have picked up the pace since loopholes were closed in the bonus pool rules and crackdowns on teams who were cheating. It is worth noting all of the international players currently in the Giants lower minors including Canario, Luciano, Pomares and Matos were signed while Bobby Evans was the GM.
7. Although I like some of Farhan's "dumpster dive" pickups, it's still unclear to me that his roster churning strategy is a net positive. He has yet to make a move or moves that convince me he is an upgrade over Evans/Sabean who had an impressive record of "dumpster diving" themselves.
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Baseball-Reference's WAR calculations may not agree with Fangraphs about SF catchers but one thing is for sure, Vogt might bring something worthwhile in July on the trade market.
ReplyDeleteAs for Belt, his extension came with a very good year and many still thought he was on the verge of breaking out. (Wasn't he always?) He may even reach the "coveted" 20-HR mark this year. Many enjoy watching him play 1B scooping errant throws and if the fences come in, he might hit 30 -- his career splits are decidedly better power on the road.
As for a July sellathon, the Giants are very little behind Miami for the worst record in the NL, and anything like last year's September collapse when McCutchen left, could catapult them to one of the top 3 picks plus a compensation pick in the low 30's if Bumgarner isn't dealt (QO). SF could end up with 3 very high draft picks. If they go for college guys, help could be only 3 years away.
Statistically, one team having so many stars underperform and even retire or approach retirement at ages 28 - 31 might be unprecedented. Cain, Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Freddie Sanchez, Pence, Core of Belt/Posey/Crawford/Panik... and more.
ReplyDeleteIf these contracts expired at ages 37 - 39 I would say okay so the last 2 years of these contracts the performance declined, that could be expected. But having all these key players "fall apart" ages 28-31 ... no I would say unexpected and I have no proof to to support any theory. Would just be conjecture.
Another question is how long this team will stay down? Astros had four consecutive terrible years with 70 wins or less. They drafted many of their stars in the draft with the low picks. I have not looked up the Cubs history, but they had at least two monster-bad years.
1, I remember A rod making an interesting comment that it's not that the core has "aged", maybe they've gotten "bored" playing with each other after winning 3 WS. I think they're is something to that. 7. Pavs has said that Zaidi wanted to compete and rebuild at the same time, which is tough. I'm hoping the organization can start to have a clearer direction and moves are made with that in mind. Don't see them going to a full rebuild though since they have several hard to move contracts. Its hard to say right now if Zaidi is an upgrade over Evans. Evans was always in the win now mode while Zaidi may have been hired to rebuild the team. If so then Zaidi may be looking to make more moves for the long term, while Evans traded for 1 year rental like Cutch.
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