DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Preliminary List

It looks like the Hot Stove League season is going to be a long, drawn out marathon so we will get started on the annual Giants Top 50 Prospects list knowing some of the players may not be with the organization by the start of spring training due to late trades and other roster moves.  As we have done for several years we put out a preliminary list to get reader input and make sure we haven't made any major oversights which happens pretty much every year.  As always, once you get past the top 5 or so, don't get too hung up on exact order as it doesn't really matter and the main purpose of the exercise is getting better acquainted with the prospects in the organization.  

1.  Kyle Harrison LHP

2.  Marco Luciano SS

3.  Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP

4.  Walker Martin SS

5.  Rayner Arias OF

6.  Keaton Winn RHP

7.  Mason Black RHP

8.  Carson Whisenhunt LHP

9.  Trevor McDonald RHP

10.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP

11.  Hayden Birdsong RHP

12.  Joe Whitman LHP

13.  Reggie Crawford LHP/1B

14.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS/OF

15.  Wade Meckler OF

16.  Erik Miller LHP

17.  Carson Seymour RHP

18.  Landon Roupp RHP

19.  Aeverson Arteaga SS

20.  Grant McCray OF

21.  Diego Velasquez SS

22.  Vaun Brown OF

23.  Victor Bericoto OF/1B

24.  Zach Morgan C

25.  Adrian Sugastey C

26.  Onil Perez C

27.  Jack Choate LHP

28.  Hayden Wynja LHP

29.  Daniel Blair RHP

30.  Cole Foster SS

31.  Gerelmi Maldonado RHP

32.  Alix Hernandez RHP

33.  Maui Ahuna SS

34.  Quinn McDaniel 2B

35.  Thomas Szapucki LHP

36.  Juan Sanchez LHP

37.  Randy Rodriguez RHP

38.  Jose Cruz RHP

39.  Heliot Ramos OF

40.  TJ Hopkins OF

41.  Trenton Brooks OF/1B

42.  Nick Avila RHP

43.  Chris Wright LHP

44.  Manuel Mercedes RHP

45.  Scott Bandura OF

46.  Guillermo Williamson OF

47.  Elian Rayo 3B

48.  Cesar Quintas OF

49.  Ryan Reckley SS

50.  Ubert Mejias RHP 

Honorable Mention(in no particular order):  Dariel Lopez SS, Yusniel Diaz OF, John Bertrand LHP, Wil Jensen RHP, Tyler Myrick RHP, Evan Gates RHP, Michael Stryfeller RHP, Nick Zwack LHP, Logan Wyatt 1B, Ismael Munguia OF, Will Wilson SS, Seth Lonsway LHP, Carson Ragsdale RHP, Eric Silva RHP, Ty Weber RHP, Nick Sinacola RHP, Matt Mikulski LHP, Thomas Gavello C/IF, Damon Dues 2B, Andrew Kachel IF, Luis Toribio 3B, 1B, Jared Dupere OF, Jairo Pomares OF, Carter Howell OF, Nomar Medina LHP, Tyler Vogel RHP, Luke Shliger C, Javier Francisco IF, Charlie Szykowny IF, Justin Wishkoski 3B, Justin Bench OF, Tanner Hill OF, Alexander Suarez OF, Estanlin Cassiani OF, Samuel Reyes OF. Carlos Molina LHP, Christian Avendano RHP.

Dominican Dandies(in no particular order):  Moises De La Rosa OF, Keiberg Camacaro SS, Carlos Concepcion OF, Anyelo Gonzalez C, Carlos Gutierrez OF, Diego Villegas OF, Anthony Tandron SS, Dario Reynosis 3B, Angel Guzman OF, Lisbel Diaz OF, Jose Bello RHP, Carlos Rangel LHP, Brayan Cabello RHP, Jorge Martinez RHP, Jose Gonazalez RHP, Randry DeLeon RHP, Jose Rengel LHP.

Hot Stove League Update: The Big Fish Aren't Biting

 The starting pitcher market was expected to liquify after Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP signed but instead quickly recongealed around Blake Snell LHP and Shoto Imanaga LHP.  Maybe the sheer size of YY's contract made the second tier guys re-evaluate their value and demand more?  Maybe GM's and POBO's are re-evaluating whether they want to shop at the top of the market at all?  

Jordan Montgomery LHP is probably the other second tier SP available but is market seems to lower key than Snell and Imanaga.  In addition potential trade candidates Corbin Burnes RHP and Dylan Cease RHP would qualify as at least second tier and maybe even top tier but their degree of availability remains unclear.  

The Giants priorities remain a top-end SP and possibly an additional lower tier SP like Sean Manaea LHP or bounceback candidate like Lucas Giolito RHP.

Meanwhile the utility/backup market remains brisk with the Blue Jays re-signing Kevin Kiermeier OF and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa IF.  Neither player hits much.  Kiermeier was once an elite OF defender but that skill may be slipping if you believe in Fangraphs UZR.  IKF's main defensive value comes from his versatility, a profile the Giants don't exactly have a need for.  

The Mariners replaced Tom Murphy C, who signed with the Giants, with a similar profile Mitch Garver C.  Garver may be a slightly better hitter than Murphy and has stayed healthier but the Mariners also paid him about 3 times as much as the Giants paid Murph.

The Giants are rumored to be close to signing Matt Chapman 3B but those rumors are not new and after awhile you wonder how close they really are.  While Chapman would be an upgrade at 3B, it's also true that 3B is not the Giants biggest Hot Stove need.

And so we wait........

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Vance Honeycutt

 Vance Honeycutt OF(College).  DOB:  5/17/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.

2022(North Carolina):  .296/.409/.672, 25 HR, 29 SB, 41 BB, 90 K, 303 PA.

2023(North Carolina):  .257/.418/.492, 12 HR, 19 SB, 49 BB, 51 K, 250 PA.

Tooled up athlete who starred as a QB and OF in HS.  More than enough speed and arm to play CF or RF with a power/speed threat at the plate.  Big question is hit tool.  Cut K rate in half from freshman to junior season but BA suffered.  Season ended early with back problems.  Double challenge in 2024 is to prove he can stay healthy and hit.  Drafted by Giants out of HS in round 2021 in round 20 but opted to go to college as do most late round HS draftees.  

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Charlie Condon

 Charlie Condon OF/1B(College).  DOB:  4/14/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'6", 211 lbs.

2023(Georgia):  .386/.484/.800, 25 HR, 33 BB, 45 K, 254 PA. 

2023(CCL):  .261/.300, 348, HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 50 PA.  

The top of preseason draft boards is heavy on college power hitters with limited position flexibility.  Condon is a redshirt Sophomore who broke out last season after being lightly regarded out of HS.  Per MLB Pipeline, he maintains a short, quick swing despite his long levers.  May have enough arm to play RF but more of a 1B/LF profile.  

Merry Christmas!

 Merry Christmas, everybody!  Thank you for the greetings in the comments after the last post.  Just want to say I appreciate everybody who reads and comments on When The Giants Come To Town.  I know some of you have been reading since it all started in December of 2009. It's an incredible feeling to write something folks get enjoyment out of reading.

However you celebrate the holidays or even if you don't, I hope the season brings you happiness and peace.  And I think we all hope they will bring us an ace pitcher for the Giants!

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Jac Caglianone

 Jac Caglionone 1B/LHP(College).   DOB:  2/9/2000.  B-L, T-L.  6'5",  245 lbs.  

2022(Florida):  .289/.339/.548, 7 HR, 5 BB, 21 K, 115 PA.  

2023(Florida:  .323/.389/.738, 33 HR, 17 BB, 58 K, 319 PA.

2023(Florida):  7-4, 4.34, 74.2 IP, 6.6 BB/9, 10.5 K/9.

True 2-way college prospect with light-tower lefthanded power and a high 90's FB that hits 100+.  2023 was his first season back from Tommy John surgery and he struggled with command, though seemed to get better as the season progressed.  The FB is is best tool with 70 grade per MLB Pipeline.  His secondary pitches are all 50 grade including a 90 MPH cutter which has the potential to be a plus secondary pitch.  

At the plate, is a free-swinger who will swing outside the zone but keeps his K's in a manageable range while making plenty of hard contact.  

Most scouts like him better as a hitter than pitcher, but he has a true chance to be a 2-way player.  I could see him falling to the Giants at #13 if his predraft demands include an opportunity to play both ways.  Do we want to see the Giants draft 3 consecutive 2-way prospects in the first round?  Why not?

Hot Stove League Update: This Week's Sign the Apocalypse Is Upon Us

 Well, this isn't good!  So those meetings Yoshinobu Yamamoto requested with the Mets and Yankees?  Looks now like those might have been a misdirection play to get the Dodgers to up their offer which was reported to be in the $250 M range to a mind boggling 12 years/$325 M.  That brings the total amount of money the Dodgers have committed to around the Hot Stove to over $1.1 B, that's right, B stands for billion to just 3 players.  

Make no mistake, this one is the killer.  Ohtani is an incredibly expensive DH and Tyler Glasnow is an injury-prone pitcher.  Dodgers can have them.  I really had my heart set on Yamamoto being the centerpiece of the Giants Hot Stove League season.  Now, not only does that not happen but he goes to our bitter rivals and that is very tough to swallow.  On an intellectual level I'm thinking the success rate of mega-contracts for pitchers is extremely low, but on an emotional level, he was so perfect for what the Giants need to get to the next level.

So where does FZ and the Giants go now?  If they can get Blake Snell LHP they should sign him and another SP.  I'm thinking Marcus Stroman who seems to really like the Giants organization or another Japanese pitcher, Shoto Imanaga LHP.  There are also several pretty good pitchers reportedly on the trading block such as Corbin Burnes RHP, Shane Bieber RHP and Dylan Cease RHP.  There are a lot of really good lefty hitters in the NL West.  How about Snell and Imanaga?

Oh!  And F*** the Dodgers!

Hot Stove League Update: Free Agent Market Congealed; Mets Make A Trade

The MLB free agent market briefly unfroze after Shohei Ohtani DH signed with the Dodgers.  As Alan Greenspan would say, it quickly congealed again around Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP.   There are reportedly at least 5 or 6 teams in serious pursuit of YY including the Giants.  One reported rumor said YY's camp told the Giants their offer would get "every consideration" which does not sound promising.  He reportedly requested second meetings with the Mets and Yankees making it appear he really, really wants to play in New York.  

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Mets made a trade with the Brewers, but not for Corbin Burnes RHP.  The Amazin's sent Coleman Crow RHP to the BrewCrew for Adrian Houser RHP and Tyrone Taylor OF.  Let's break it down:

Adrian Houser RHP.  DOB:  2/2/1993.  6'3", 242 lbs.  2023:  8-5, 4.12, 111.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. 

Solid #3, 4 SP.  Would be considered an innings eater except he has missed time with injuries for last two seasons.  Unimpressive K rates but keeps the ball on the ground.

Tyrone Taylor OF.  DOB:  1/22/1994.  2023:  .234/.267/.446, 10 HR, 9 SB, 3.3 BB%, 22.6 K%, 243 PA. 

4'th OF type with some power and speed but offensive value limited by extremely low walk rate. 

Coleman Crow RHP.  DOB:  12/30/2000.  6'0", 175 lbs.  2023(AA):  2-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 11.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.  Long term project.  Drafted by the Angels in 2019.  Traded to the Mets for Eduardo Escobar last June.  Was pitching well at AA but underwent Tommy John Surgery in August so will likely miss most or all of 2024.  

The Brewers dump a couple of arbitration eligible players and the Mets add to their depth.  This trade is unlikely to impact the Yamamoto decision.

FZ can't stand to let a 40-man roster spot go unfilled for even one day so filled the last spot by acquiring T. J. Hopkins OF from the Reds for Cash or a PTBNL.  

T. J. Hopkins OF.  DOB:  1/16/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 195 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  .308/.411/.514, 16 HR, 2 SB, 14.0 BB%, 23.9 K%, 393 PA.  

2023(MLB):  .171/227/.171, 44 PA.  

Can play CF.  Hit well in AAA.  Didn't show much at MLB level in a very small sample size.  FZ loves to put guys like that into The Churn and see what pans out.  Giants have a logjam in the OF at the MLB level and it seems unlikely they will keep Hopkins on the 40-man roster for a full season.  They will likely try to sneak him through waivers at some point.

Hot Stove League Update: Joey Bart May Not Be A Forever Giant

For a fanbase biting their figurative fingernails to the quick hoping for an ace pitcher signing, this comes as a gigantic letdown, and it is a frustrating move on several levels.  First the deets:  Tom Murphy C signed a 2 year/$8 M contract with the Giants with a third year team option for another $ 4 M with a $250 K buyout for a total guarantee of $8.25 M.  

Now, if you are an avid student of The Churn, you may remember the name Tom Murphy as one of the early acquistions and casualties all wrapped into one.  He was claimed off waivers from the Rockies late in spring training of 2019, FZ's first season as POBO.  That only lasted for a few hours or maybe a day or two before FZ DFA'd him and then traded him to the Mariners, yep them.  Here's what is so frustrating about The Churn:  I knew Murphy could hit.  He hit 8 HR's in 88 PA in 2015 and 2016 which projects to 54 in 600 PA.  Yes it was a small sample and it was the Rockies but yeah, there was toonder in the bat.  I really wanted to see what he could do with a steady back up role and then poof!  He was gone again.  I mean, think of the backup catchers the Giants have churned through since 2019 and I am quite sure you cannot find one that made you happy they flipped Murph on to the Mariners.

Murphy went on to slash .273/.324/.535 with 12 HR in 281 PA for the Mariners in 2019.  He missed the 2020 season and his number regressed in 2021.  Me missed much of 2022 to injury but rebounded to a .290/.335/.538, 12 HR line in 159 PA last season.  For his career, he's hit 48 HR in 1017 PA which is 28 HR/600 PA.  His total impact has been limited by....wait for it....injuries.  So now, after missing out on a couple of really good, if limited, seasons from him the FZ signs him to a relatively big free agent contract for a back up catcher.

There are almost certainly multiple ripples from this signing.  First, the writing is on the wall for Joey Bart.  He is out of options and therefore has to make the 26-man active roster or be exposed to waivers.  Barring at least one and probably several injuries, Joey Bart is not going to make the active roster.  The question is not if, but when he gets traded or DFA'd.  I suppose FZ could keep Joey around through spring training and hope he shows enough to garner some trade interest for a team in need of a back up catcher or a rebuilding team that can afford to be patient with him.

The signing also means that Blake Sabol, who now has 3 exercisable options will almost certainly start the season in AAA Sacramento to try to improves his catching chops while maintaining and refining his prodigious power stroke.

Patrick Bailey still figures to be the Opening Day catcher and starter for the season but Murphy provides a reasonable fallback option for starting C if Bailey continues his late-season regression.  Of course, Murphy has to stay healthy to step into that role.

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Nick Kurtz

 I started this series out using Prospects Live's Top 50 college and prep prospect lists, alternating between the two.  Now that MLB Pipeline has their 2024 Draft Top 100 list, it confirms my suspicions that this draft heavy on college hitting with Konnor Griffin being the only prep prospect to crack their top 10.  I am going to continue the series by working my way down the MLB Pipeline list.  When we get to about 10 prospects reviewed I will start ranking them into my own draft board.  

Nick Kurtz 1B(College).  DOB:  3/12/2003.  B-L, T-L.  6'5", 235 lbs.  

2023:  .353/.527/.784, 24 HR, 5 SB, 63 BB, 50 K, 265 PA.  

Monster hitting prospect who is compared to Spencer Torkelson in MLB's scouting report except Tork bats/throws R/R while Kurtz is a lefty all the way and rated as a better fielder around the 1B bag.  Kurtz was recruited to Wake Forest as a lefty pitcher but was such a huge hitter he dropped the pitching part.  More than just a power bat, he's a well-rounded hitter with easy power to all fields and mashes LHP's too.  He's limited to 1B defensively which puts a lot of pressure on the bat but seems up to the challenge.  There are also 15 additional hitting jobs available in MLB since the NL adopted the DH.  He's MLB's #2 draft prospect after J. J. Wetherholt.

Hot Stove League Update: Dodgers Add Tyler Glasnow; Buster Speaks

 The Evil Empire flexed their financial and player resources again yesterday agreeing to a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Tyler Glasnow RHP and Manuel Margot OF.  The Dodgers send Ryan Pepiot RHP and Jonny Deluca OF to the Rays, an interesting exchange.  Let's break it down:

Tyler Glasnow RHP.  DOB:  8/23/1993.  6'8", 225 lbs.  

2023:  10-7, 3.53, 120 IP, 12.15 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.62.  fWAR= 3.2.

Glasnow is an ace pitcher when he's on the mound.  He's just had a tough time staying there with last year's 120 IP was the most of his career.  He missed about half of 2021 and most of 2022 with Tommy John surgery.  He missed about 10 starts last year with a dreaded oblique strain.  The Dodgers don't have a great track record of keeping their pitchers healthy, but they have managed to patch up Clayton Kershaw every year and get him back out there.  I mean, that dude's career seems to have been hanging by the thread for at least the last 5 years or more.  Glasnow is not coming cheap.  In addition to the players going to the Rays, he is under contract for $25 M next season which was then extended to a reported 5 years/$135 M after the trade was announced as conditional on an extension.  Again, if he stays healthy he's an ace but there is lots of risk here.  As I have said many times, I am not sure risk has any meaning in Dodger Land.

Manuel Margot OF.  DOB:  9/28/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 180 lbs.  

2023:  .264/.310/.376, 4 HR, 9 SB, 5.4 BB%, 16.4 K%, 336 PA, fWAR= 0.4.  

At this point in his career I think we can safely say Manuel Margot is not on the edge of a breakout season.  He's been remarkably consistent and mediocre for 7 seasons now.  Contact hitter who does not walk much, low power, some speed but does not get on base enough to use it.  Better against LHP's.  Most of value is in CF defense but that has slipped the last two seasons.  This feels more like the Dodgers taking on salary to limit what they had to give up to swing the trade than anything.  May be able to pair up with James Outman who bats L to form a CF platoon.

Ryan Pepiot RHP.  DOB:  8/21/1997.  6'3", 215 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  0-2, 3.97, 22.2 IP, 10.32 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.  

2023(MLB):  2-1, 2.14, 42 IP, 8.14 K/9, 1.07 BB/9.  

Of the Dodgers stable of young starting pitching, Pepiot probably has the lowest ceiling.  He's bounced between the minors and MLB over the past two seasons and has also spent time on the IL.  He's got two things going for him:  1.  A terrific changeup.  2.  extremely low walk rates.  What he has lacked is a third pitch making it tough to project him as a long term SP.  Per Fangraphs, he added a cutter last season which was effective at limiting hard contact.  If he can continue to use the cutter effectively, he can be a solid mid-rotation SP.

Jonny DeLuca OF.  DOB:  7/10/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 196 lbs.  

2023(AA):  .279/.380/.590, 10 HR, 9 SB, 9.9 BB%, 18.3 K%, 142 PA.

2023(AAA):  .306/.397/.548, 7 HR, 3 SB, 11.4 BB%, 15.8 K%, 184 PA.

2023(MLB):  .262/.311/.429, 2 HR, SB, 6.7 BB%, 17.8 K%, 45 PA.

Younger version of Manuel Margot with possibly more power potential.  Moved quickly through the minors with an interesting combination of power and speed.  Although his SB totals are modest, per Fangraphs, he has exceptional speed in the OF to track down balls in CF.  Gotta feel for him a little bit.  He made an appearance on behalf of the Dodgers at a groundbreaking out in San Bernardino just hours before the trade was announced.  So it goes in MLB.  

The key to this trade is whether Tyler Glasnow can stay healthy. If he does, it adds to the Dodgers aura of invincibilty.  If he doesn't, well, they still seem to be pretty much invincible.

***********************************************************************************

Buster Posey spoke with Andrew Baggerly of The Athletic in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani negotiations which created a bit of a social media firestorm.  Posey played a central role in the ownership group trying to persuade Ohtani to come to SF and transform the team and city.  Although Buster did not get into specifics of what was said, apparently Ohtani expressed concerns about the reputation of San Francisco as a city in decline and rife with drugs, homelessness and crime.  It sounds like Buster pushed back on that narrative with a heartfelt expression of love for the city and region, including the fact that he and Kristen chose to move back from Georgia after being gone for just 1 year, but he went on to say Ohtani is not the only prospective free agent to express these concerns and opined that at some point perception is reality.

Unfortunately, Buster may be finding out the hard way that when you open up like that, media and social media are going to cherry pick the most provocative segments and leave out the context so this is being painted as Buster trashing the city of San Francisco, the city he just moved his family back to!  Sadly this is all part of a concerted narrative being built with political motivations to demonize San Francisco's reputation as a bastion of liberal politics.  While I personally consider myself more middle of the road politically than some San Francisco politicians and in some cases the voters there may have gone too far in their progressive voting, the narrative of a failed city is grossly overblown, IMO.  

While San Francisco has long had it's share of homelessness and accompanying problems, it is nowhere near alone among American cities.  I and my family recently visited friends in San Diego which is not exactly known for it's liberal politics, and went to a ballgame at Petco Park.  Driving to the park, it was shocking to pass block after block of encampments lined up along the sidewalks as well as in and around the parking areas for the ballpark.  The next day we ate lunch with family in Little Italy part of town.  There were many people roaming around in obvious socioeconomic distress literally foraging for food out of garbage cans.  It was a shocking and heartbreaking.  I wrote a post on my private Facebook page declaring it to be nothing short of a humanitarian crisis requiring a top-priority, long term commitment to solutions by our state and national leaders.  My daughter, who lives in Georgia, tells me Atlanta has similar issues there.  So, it's not just San Francisco and not just California.  Statistically, San Francisco is nowhere near the top of the list of American cities in violent crimes.

The silver lining in this kerfuffle is it gave players like Logan Webb, who are committed to the team and city, to speak up and defend the city which might not have happened if Buster had just kept quiet and not said anything.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Jung Hoo Lee!

Farhan Zaidi and the Giants pivoted quickly from their futile pursuit of Shohei Ohtani to address their stated need for a true CF.  They agreed to terms with Korean KBO League star Jung Hoo Lee.  This is a move they have telegraphed for awhile with well publicized scouting trips to Korea by GM Pete Putila.  The deal, 6 years/$113 M comes in at over twice the MLBTR prediction of 5 yr/$50 M but so far they have been low on almost every signing so apparently inflation is impacting the 0.01% too.  Terms seem to be straightforward with no deferred money and a single opt-out after 4 seasons.  The AAV works out to approximately $18 M which leaves about $48 M for more signings if the Giants are willing to go to the CBT threshold.  

So, what did the Giants just acquire?  Here's the capsule summary:

Jung Hoo Lee CF.  DOB:  8/220/2023.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 171 lbs.

2022(KBO):  .349/.421/.575, 23 HR, 5 SB, 10.5 BB%, 5.1 K%, 627 PA.

2023(KBO):  .318/.406/.455, 6 HR, 6 SB, 12.7 BB%, 5.9 K%, 387 PA.  

2024(Steamer Proj):  .291/.353/.434, 11 HR, 6 SB, 506 PA, fWAR= 2.7.

Projections for players transitioning from the KBO to MLB are tricky with some historic variance but there have been enough successful transitions that an adjusted projection is not totally throwing at a dart board.  If Lee truly gives plus D in CF and can put up a batting line close to the Steamer projection, it will be a fantastic signing.  If he stays healthy and bats leadoff the same rate stats would likely propel him above 3.0 fWAR.

Of course the outstanding stat for Lee is his fantastic and unusual reversed K/BB.  Expect the K-rate to increase some against high velocity MLB pitching but he does seem to have exceptional bat control and on-base skills.  I expect he will be the full-time, non-platoon CF and bat leadoff in the lineup.

One concern is he lost a big chunk of last season with an ankle fracture which required surgery(hmm....sounds vaguely familiar), but he did return to play at the end of the season and Peppermint Pete's scouting trip included his final game of the season after his return so at least Pete must have been convince by what he saw that he was fully recovered and it would not be a problem going forward.

So let's all send out a big welcome to our newest Forever Giant, Jung Hoo Lee!

Hot Stove League Update: CBT Shenanigans and the Axis of Evil

As updates trickled out revealing details of the staggering contract Shohei Ohtani  agreed to with the Dodgers, something started smelling fishy in Denmark.....or somewhere.  When we first heard the majority of Ohtani's compensation was deferred most analyses assumed that meant something in the neigbhorhood of $400 M out of the $700 total.  That is already an unprecedented amount of deferred money but then the bombshell dropped today.  Turns out Ohtani is only going to get paid $20 M over the 10 year term of the contract leaving a mind-boggling $680 M deferred over the next 20 years.  

There are several obvious reasons why this arrangement is good for the Dodgers:  

1.  It is accounting dogma that future money is worth less than present money due to the relentless predictability of inflation.  

2.  There is a previously little-known loophole in the CBT rules which allows for a recalculation of AAV for a contract to something called Present Value when there is deferred money based on a devaluation of future payments due to the above-mentioned inflation.   Analysts calculate this reduces the Dodgers CBT hit from $70 M to $46 M, still a large amount but only a little more than half what the full AAV would be(I saw one calculation of $26 M which would be ridiculously small).

There seem to be two reasons why Ohtani would accept this arrangement(in fact, it was apparently suggested by him and his team):

1.  The lower AAV hit on the CBT enables the Dodgers to sign additional players...cough....cough....like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, just to name one.

2.  Ohtani is at the height of his personal marketing power.  He is reportedly earning approximately $50 M/yr in endorsements so he doesn't need the money now.  The $68 M/yr for 10 years kicks in after the contract and presumably his career ends when he will not be able to command so much in endorsements which the deferred salary payments will more than make up for(someone pointed out he also may not be living in Calfornia by then which might reduce is tax liability on the income).

You might reasonably ask how such a contract which is obviously designed to circumvent the CBT, is allowed.  Well, that is an excellent question.  Turns out there is a clause in the Basic Agreement between the MLBPA and MLB specifically prohibiting restrictions on deferred salary.  But wait!  Baggs pointed out on X that there is also a clause prohibiting contracts which are obvious attempts to circumvent the CBT.  Unfortunately I am not holding my breath that the Commissioner will step in and void the contract or charge the Dodgers the full $70 M AAV against the CBT.

My opinion is the Giants, Blue Jays and Angels all have reasons to file grievances against the contract with the Commish which they should do.

So is this the future of superstar contracts?  Probably not.  Most players do not have the gushing stream of endorsement income that Ohtani has so they are going to want as much of their money up front as possible, again because present money is almost always more valuable than future money.

There is another twist to this story involving a sweetheart deal between the twin evil empires, Dodgers and Yankees.  The Dodgers needed to clear two 40-man roster spots to accommodate Ohtani and Joe Kelly RHP who they also signed.  The Yankees just happened to have a couple of extra 40-man roster spots so they did their partners in the Axis of Evil a solid by sending them a prospect who was not on their 40-man roster, Trey Sweeney IF for the Victor Gonzalez LHP and Jorbit Vivas IF from the Dodgers.  This will probably turn out to be an inconsequential trade but Gonzalez has had some success as a reliever at the MLB level and Sweeney and Vivas appear to be legit prospects with Sweeney being a former first round draft pick in 2021.  So, if you are looking for one more reason to hate both of these despicable teams look no further.

Hot Stove League Update: The (Evil) Empire Strikes Back

You had to know this was going to happen when the Blue Jays hoax fell apart yesterday.   The Dodgers were always the frontrunners to sign Shohei Ohtani so that by itself is no surprise.  The terms of the deal are.....well, they are staggering!  10 years/$700 M!  I mean, really?  There must be, has to be no limit.  Now, while deets are not completely known, over half the $700 M is deferred which creates a loophole adjustment in the AAV for CBT purposes.  Per Fangraphs, assuming $400 M deferred in $40 M yearly parcels by 10 years and spread over 4 years each(my my math Ohtani will be paid about $10 M/yr for 40 years after this contract ends), the Prevent Value of the deferred money is reduced by about $10 M per year which means the Dodgers still take a total $60 M hit on the CBT yearly for 10 years which is not a small amount.  

There are lots of ways to rationalize why this could end up being a bad deal for the Dodgers.  As of right now, Ohtani is limited to DH with a projected fWAR in 2024 of 3.7 which is not a return you hope for from a $70 M/yr player, or even from a $60 M/yr player.  Yes, he may add pitching to is WAR value starting in 2025 but this is his second TJ surgery and there is a non-zero chance he will never be an effective MLB pitcher again.  On the other hand, it appears there is no such thing as a financial drag on the Dodgers.  They apparently have unlimited financial resources.  On top of that I think you have to factor in the local aspect of this and it involves the territorial competition between the Dodgers and Angels with the Dodgers having just gained a huge upper hand in local brand value to the point of near total destruction of the Angels brand.

Much as I hate that Ohtani is now a Dodger, I am more than a little relieved the Giants are not on the paying end of this contract.  I just wish he had gone to the BJ's or almost anywhere else besides the Dodgers.  My own offseason dream scenario is still on the table:  Yamamoto, Lee, Manaea, plus or minus Brandon Belt and Tim Anderson. Get er done, FZ!

Hot Stove League Update: Where in the World is Shohei Ohtani?

Yesterday dawned to the beginning of a shi...Twe......X-storm  of speculation and false reporting that Shohei Ohtani was signing with a Toronto Blue Jays for 12 years and almost $600 M.  The initial report of a definite signing came from JP Hoonrstra of Dodgers Nation which I believe is their equivalent of McCovey Chronicles.  More on that later.  It was then backed up by Jon Morosi of MLB.com.   The reports were quickly contradicted by multiple reporters who said no decision was made.  The rest of the day was breathless talk of a plane carrying Ohtani was in route from the OC to Toronto and Yusei Kikuchi LHP had reserved 50 seats at a pizza restaurant there.  By evening Ohtani was reported to be comfortably esconced in his home on the OC with apparently no plans to meet with any teams or announce anything.  

OK, I am going to indulge in bit of conspiracy-mongering here.  Does it seem a little odd that a writer for the Dodgers equivalent of MCC was breaking this news?  Is there some reason why this Hoornstra dude might intentionally write a false report?  Well yes!  Yes there is!  We all know about what has become the infamous Ohtani ban on leaks and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts gaffe in revealing that, gasp, the Dodgers had indeed met with him.  Hoornstra has not posted an apology, retraction or any other statement.  It's possible Hoornstra has a real source and has the scoop which will be confirmed on Monday or sometime next week.  Is it also possible this was a satire piece or even a hit piece on the BJ's trying to sabotage the deal?  We should eventually find out.  Hoornstra will either be a hero or he and Vox will have some answering to do and decisions to make.

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Meanwhile there were deals getting done around the Hot Stove:

The Red Sox acquired Tyler O'Neill OF from the Cardinals for a couple of RHP prospects.  O'Neill looked like a future star in 2021 when he it 34 HR's but his star faded a lot since then and he fell off the Cardinals depth chart after two sub-par campaigns in 2022 and 2023.  O'Neill was speculated to be a potential trade target for the Giants but he's a RH batter who is not a true CF so was never an ideal fit for them.

In a move which may have more impact on the Giants, Eduardo Rodriguez LHP signed a 4 year/$80 M contract with the D'Backs.  There is a vesting option for a 5'th year with a $6 M buyout.  That's a steep price for a guy with a #3 SP profile but Rodriguez has been a remarkably consistent and durable performer except for 2021 when he was limited by an injury and a mysterious extended family issue during which he was reportedly out of contact with Tigers management.

The Giants signed Daulton Jefferies RHP to a minor league deal.  Jefferies was a Friday Night SP for Cal and a top prospect for the A's before his career was derailed by a series of arm surgeries.  Like others before him, he will try to revive his career with the Giants.

Not sure if we already commented on Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B/DH re-signing with the Giants.  That was also announced on MLBTR for what seems like the 3'rd or 4'th time.

Hot Stove League Update: Soto to the Yanks; Scouting the Rule 5 Draft

 The blockbuster news of the day happened this evening after the Winter Meetings officially ended.  The Padres traded Juan Soto OF to the Yankees for 4 pitchers and Kyle Higashioka C.  Outfield was pretty much a disaster for the Yankees last year and they fixed that big time with Soto and Alex Verdugo, who came over in a separate trade with the Red Sox.  In the process they gave up some better then decent pitchers, at least from looking at their stat lines and it's not like the Yanks are overflowing with pitching.  Maybe they plan to also sign a couple of FA pitchers?

Could the Giants have traded for Juan Soto?  Probably not.  It's very unlikely the Padres would trade him within the NL West and I am not seeing how the Giants could have matched or beaten the Yanks mix of MLB pitchers and prospects.

The Rule 5 Draft happened today.  The Giants did not lose any players in the MLB phase nor did they select any.  The minor league phase was more active with the Giants selecting a couple of players who could break out while giving up three who are extremely unlikely to ever get close to a MLB roster.

Giants Acquire:

Nick Garcia RHP(Rockies).  DOB:  4/20/1999.  6'4", 215 lbs.  

2023(AA):  3-0, 7.35, 94.1 IP, 7.92 K/9, 3.63 BB/9.  

Former third round draft pick by the Pirates in 2020.  Traded to the Rockies for Forever Giant Connor Joe.  AA numbers don't look great but I believe the Hartford Yard Goats home field is a very tough environment for pitchers.  He reportedly has a low 90's FB with a good changeup per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs.

Dariel Lopez SS(Pirates).  DOB:  2/7/2002.  6'1", 183 lbs.  

2022(A+):  .286/.329/.476, 19 HR, 6 SB, 5.0 BB%, 25.5 K%, 420 PA.  

Lopez missed last season with dislocated knee which is presumably healed.  He's still young entering his age 22 season.  He's a big dude with a reputation as not a great fielder so will likely move off SS but he has tremendous power.  The Giants give him a chance to have a breakout season

The Giants lost Sean Roby 3B, Hayden Cantrelle 2B and P. J. Hilson OF in the minor league phase.  None of them are likely to ever see a MLB roster.  Roby has light-tower power but an extremely low contact rate.  Cantrelle is a decent hitter for a MI but lacks power and is pretty much limited to 2B on D.  Hilson was a tooled up but raw HS draft pick in 2018 but just took too long to develop skills.  Very doubtful he will ever hit enough to make a MLB roster.

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Chase Burns

Chase Burns RHP(College).  DOB:  1/16/2003.  6'4", 195 lbs.  

2022:  8-2, 2.91, 80.1 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 11.5 K/9.

2023:  5-3, 4.63, 72 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 14.3 K/9.  

Burns performed in a swing role for Tennessee last season and is expected to pitch for Wake Forest as a SP in 2024.  Almost perfect pitchers body with a strong but lean, muscular frame with long limbs and loose arm action.  Pairs a mid-high 90's FB that can get up to 102 in shorter relief appearances with a plus slider.  He is reportedly working on a curveball and split but as of now is a 2-pitch guy.  A split would give him a wider variance in his arsenal and is probably the pitch he should work on developing if he wants to be a SP in the pros.  If he is limited to the two pitches, his ceiling is still elite closer.  Last year he got stung by hard contact despite improving his K/9 by almost 3 while maintaining an excellent BB/9.  It's unclear why a guy with that kind of stuff would get hit that hard.  Most of the damage came as a SP which may require the development of a third pitch to overcome.

Hot Stove League Update: Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic

The Braves opened MLB"s Winter Meetings by adding another young, high-ceiling player to the their roster, former #6 overall draft pick and Top 5 prospect in all of MLB Jarred Kelenic OF, as if they didn't already have enough of those.  Kelenic struggled with the transition to MLB but improved last season with a .253/.327/.419, 11 HR, 13 SB, 416 PA but with a 31% K rate.  As part of the 5-players swap, the Braves take on some modest salary obligations in Marco Gonzalez LHP and Evan White 1B/OF.  White himself is a former first round draft pick but has struggled to hit even more than Kelenic.  

The Mariners receive two RHP's, Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips.  Kowar is a former #33 overall draft pick who has struggled at the MLB level with the Royals.  He was recently traded from the Royals to the Braves for Kyle Wright RHP.  Phillips was drafted in 2022 but has yet to play a pro game due to a prolonged IL stay, presumably TJ surgery.

This trade could end up as inconsequential for both teams, but the upside is all with Jarred Kelenic and the Braves.  If he breaks out and plays up to his potential, the Braves have a stud, 5-tool OF for years to come.  If that comes to pass, Alex Anthopoulos will be cemented as one of to best, if not the very best GM in MLB, if he isn't already.

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Konnor Griffin

 Konnor Griffin OF/RHP.  DOB:  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 210 lbs.

True 5-tool, 2-way prep prospect who reclassified from 2025 draft eligibility to 2024 which also makes him one of the younger prospects in the draft.  Tall and lean but with a well-proportioned frame that has lots of room to fill out.  Speed to play CF with an arm strong enough to be a serious pitching prospect.  His swing gets positive reviews although on video, to my eye he's got a bit of a windup with some length.  Of course, that's what I said about Bryce Harper back at the same stage of his career, so what do I know?  Has a chance to go 1:1 over some of the bat-first guys we've profiled so far.  PG says he is the "most tooled up player in the class".  6.36 runner, which is really fast.  Committed to LSU.