Draft is coming up on Monday, June 3. Time to put our chips on the table with out final draft board. Barring revelation of a serious injury, it should not change before the draft commences. This is a strong year for college hitters, which statistically make up the highest ROI demographic in the draft. No surprise then that college hitters dominate the top of my board.
1. Adley Rutschman C, College(Oregon St). B-S, T-R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Rutschman backed up a breakout sophomore season with an even better junior season batting .427 with 16 HR's and almost twice as many walks(69) as K's(36. He's an excellent defensive catcher and a hitter with few, if any weaknesses. Caution: Although catching is less physically dangerous since the Posey Rule went into effect, catchers are still always one foul tip away from a career-ending concussion.
2. Bobby Witt Jr SS, HS. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Witt is a true 5-tool player with MLB bloodlines(father had a long successful career as an MLB pitcher). Has the athleticism to stick at SS. High ceiling at a premium position make him an easy call at #2. Caution: Some scouts question the swing/hit tool. A bit on the old side at 19.0 yo.
3. Andrew Vaughn 1B, College(Cal). B-R, T-R. 5'11", 210 lbs. Consensus best power hitter in the draft(it's debatable whether Adley Rutschman is a better overall hitter). Vaughn absolutely raked for 3 years at Cal as well as the Cape Cod League in 2018 to the point of blowing away concerns about his defensive game. I mean, whothehell cares if Paul Goldschmidt can only play 1B? His junior season was not quite as monstrous as the sophomore season but still plenty good. Caution: The bat better be for real because Vaughn is strictly a 1B/DH and the RH 1B demographic has a rather poor track record for draft day success.
4. JJ Bleday OF, College(Vanderbilt). B-L, T-L. 6'3", 205 lbs. Bleday was already a highly regarded prospect after hitting .368 his sophomore year at Vandy, but he backed that up by hitting .346 his junior season, but with a huge power spike from 4 to 25 HR's. Coming from an elite college program in an elite conference this puts him firmly in the top tier of the draft. Caution: Almost certainly not a CF in the pros, but should be a plus fielder in the corners with more than enough arm to play RF.
5. Bryson Stott SS, College(UNLV). B-L, T-R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Stott is a 5-tool player with a strong college track record who scouts think can stick at SS. If not, the bat is probably good enough to play at any position and he's athletic enough to play any position except catcher/pitcher. I put him ahead of two HS prospects, Abrams and Greene who most boards have higher because of the college hitter demographic. Caution: Although he has 5 legitimate above-average tools, no single tool is elite. Played college ball in a very hitter-friendly environment.
6. Hunter Bishop OF, College(Arizona St). B-L, T-R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Tremendous size and athleticism. Breakout junior season at the plate with a .356 BA and 22 HR's. So-so Cape Cod League results. Caution: Height makes his swing a bit long and there is significant swing and miss here. Note: I like Stott's positional advantage over Bishop's size and power plus I think Stott is a better all-around hitter.
7. CJ Abrams SS, HS. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 182 lbs. 4 tool player who projects to easily stick at SS. One of the faster runners in the draft. Power potential which may eventually develop. Caution: If the power does not develop, he's a slap and dash hitter which is not a demographic that has seen a lot of success in the majors since the return of sillyball( and is why I rank him below Vaughn, Bleday, Bishop and Stott).
8. Jackson Rutledge RHP, JC. 6'8", 250 lbs. Rutledge is such a dominant physical presence on the mound with velocity to match. Backs that up with a slider that some rank as best in draft class. The resulting ceiling makes me want to discount the risk and rank him as high as #3. But the risk is real so he goes just behind the top tier of hitters. Caution: Iffy competition in JC ball and the delivery is a bit unorthodox with a very tight, short-arm circle.
9. Alek Manoah RHP, College(West Virginia). 6'6", 270 lbs. Jumbo sized college pitcher with a big fastball who broke out in the Cape Cod League and carried that into a dominant junior season. Upper 90's velocity with 2 strong secondary pitches give him a SP repertoire. Caution: Pitchers with his body type tend to end up as relievers.
10. Riley Greene OF, HS. B-L, T-L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Widely considered the top HS bat in the draft. Projects to hit for both average and power. Sweet swinger. Weak non-bat tools and left-handed throwing severely limit positional options. Caution: Tougher to project a HS hitter than a college hitter and positional limitations put tremendous pressure on the bat.
Other Draft Prospects in Top 10 conversation: Nick Lodolo LHP College(TCU), Josh Jung 3B College(Texas Tech), Quinn Priester RHP HS. Matthew Allan RHP HS, Shea Langeliers C College(Baylor), Corbin Carroll OF HS.
Lodolo is the most polished college SP but the FB may be a bit short. Jung is a good hitter but maybe a bit short on power for 3B and did not dominate his junior season. Priester has the best command of HS pitchers with more projectabilty than Allan who is more physically advanced now, but not much projection in the body. Langeliers is an elite defensive catcher who should also hit, although nowhere near the hitter Adley Rutschman is. Carroll is a guy for those prospect hounds who love Andrew Benintendi types.
Although Rutschman and Witt are 1-2 in almost every ranking and I believe they are clearly 1-2 myself, I don't think there is such a huge gap between them and Vaughn/Bleday/Stott/Bishop to make them a top tier of their own. There is a definite tier break after #10, which is good for the Giants who hold the #10 lottery ticket. I expect there are at least 1 or 2 teams with different top 10 rankings than I and 1 or 2 who will cut underslot deals with lower ranked prospects to give the Giants a choice of 2-3 players from my top 10.
I will also try to post a mock draft with a bit of a different twist Monday morning.
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