Discouraging Developments

 If at some point in the future we look back on the moment the Giants season fell apart, yesterday might emerge as a leading candidate.  Starting a 4 games series against a very good team they beat in Milwaukee a short time ago, they were forced into a bullpen game after the scheduled starting pitcher, Johnny Cueto RHP, was scratched at the last minute and another starter, Alex Wood LHP, went on the IL after testing positive for COVID.  That they made a game of it against the pitcher who may have the best stuff they've faced all season is a testament to this team's resilience but resilience may not be enough as they are rapidly running out of starting pitcher depth.

This loss came with a large helping of BABIP bad luck as the Giants hitters smacked rocket after rocket right into the gloves of Brewers defenders.  Oh, and the home plate ump was absolutely terrible!  Still, the state of the starting pitching is worrisome and it appears doomed barring a surprise or two coming out of the flurry of waiver wire claims.  Jose Quintana LHP is the latest and we'll have to hope the Giants coaching staff finds a quick fix.

Encouraging Developments

There were a couple of encouraging developments in tonight's surprisingly easy win over the Mets in NY.  First, Sammy Long LHP went 5.1 shutout IP.  Sure, the Giants hitters made sure he had an early lead and he still threw a ton of pitches, 92, but he only walked one and served notice the Giants have an emergency SP who gives them a chance to win. 

The other much more under-the-radar find here is Tyler Chatwood RHP.  Yes, it was garbage time but he went 2 shutout innings with a GO/AO= 3/0.  It's just one appearance but gives reason to be cautiously optimistic he can eat some innings out of he pen as well as serving as another emergency SP.  Maybe he's the next big reclamation project for the Giants pitching coaches?

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When FZ took over as GM of the Giants, many of us openly wondered, sometimes a bit cynically, how he would make up for the unspeakable evil of finding Max Muncy for the Dodgers.  Well, he's made up for that at least twice over.  He did not find another Max Muncy.  He found two other Max Muncy's! And yeah, you can count me as a believer! Tonight Mike Yastrzemski OF hit his 20'th HR of the season.  That gave YtY a total of 51 HR's in 1059 PA which projects to 29 HR's/600 PA the generally used # of PA's to project stats to a full season. All that after FZ picked him off he Orioles scrapheap, of all teams!

And then there is Lamonte Wade Jr.  Another lefty hitting OF who languished in the minors, and struggled in some brief MLB callups.   Hitting almost exclusively against RHP's. Wade Jr has now hit 17 HR's in 254 PA which projects to a whopping 40 HR's/600 PA.  Obviously Wade Jr is not going to hit 40 HR's in a season if he's only one side of a platoon but that gives you an idea of how productive he's been in his role.  Where would the Giants be without him?

Pedal to the Metal!

 Let's just stand back a bit and admire what the Giants have accomplished so far, especially in the second half.  They came into the All-Star Break with a remarkable record of 57-32 for a winning percentage of .640.  Many of us feared, based on painful experience, they would stumble after the break.  Those fears were not assuaged when they dropped the opening second half series to the Cardinals. They recovered to win a remarkable 4 game series over the Dodgers in LA but then dropped 2 of 3 to the Pirates.  Hmm....Giants have a long history of playing up to the Dodgers and doing faceplants against the Pirates of the league.  Well, folk!  They have not lost a series since!  Most of those winning series came against the very best teams in MLB, well, except for the Giants who as of right now are the best!:  2 of 3 from the Dodgers, 2 of 3 from the Astros, 3 of 4 from the D'Backs, 2 of 3 from the Brewers, 2 of 2 from the D'Backs, 3 of 4 from the Rockies, 2 of 3 from the Mets and 2 of 3 from the A's.  All that adds up to a second half record of 23-12 or a Winning Percentage of .657 better than their first half record!  

Looking at the season as a whole, the Giants have won in almost every way imaginable.  They've won at home(.689) and on the road(.603).  They have won every month so far with their lowest win% in July at .600.  They have gone 23-14 in one run games, by far the best in MLB.  They are 24-7 in "blowouts". They are 13-7 in interleague play. They are 8-7 in extra-innings.  The lone glaring weakness is in walk-offs where they are just 2-9.  They have a losing record against just 3 of the 18 teams they have played, the Cardinals(2-4), Pirates(3-4) and Mariners(1-2).  They are 8-8 against the Dodgers and are winning their season series against 14 other teams.  Oh, and thank god for the D'Backs who they are 14-2 against!

It remains to be seen if they can finish this out.  They could play very well the rest of the way and still lose to the Dodgers who are incredibly talented and relentless.  They could still faceplant.  The starting pitching in particular looks very shaky and thin,  but a complete collapse seems less likely.

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Let's do a quick comp of deadline deals here.  Since coming to the Giants, Kris Bryant  IF/OF has been invaluable, slashing .274/.329/.507 with 4 HRs in 79 PA while playing excellent D at multiple positions.  I don't have an exact number here but the Giants have won several times in games they likely don't win without Bryant in the lineup.  Considering the modest cost in prospects to obtain him, Bryant has been a steal regardless of whether the trade sets up a longterm deal or not. 

Compare Bryant's impact to Trea Turner IF for the Dodgers.  Make no mistake, Turner has been good for the Dodgers despite starting out on the IL.  He's slashing .328/.365/.483 with 1 HR and 3 SB in 69 PA.  I'll take Bryant and his power by a nose here.

Now lets compare pitching acquisitions.  The Giants traded for Tony Watson LHP at the cost of 3 third tier prospects, a trade that had me scratching my head at the time.  The word from the beat writers was the Giants scouts noted a recent uptick in velocity and were confident Watson would come on strong.  Well, he has at that!  9 appearances, 1-0, 0.00, 9 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K's, 3 Holds.  His addition filled a 7'th and 8'th inning gap in the Giants bullpen arsenal.  

The Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer RHP and he's certainly stood in the gap created by Trevor Bauer's personal meltdown.  4 Appearances, 3-0, 2.11, 21.1 IP, 4 BB, 31 K.  Pretty tough to beat that but Watson's Win + 4 Holds may have contributed to as many wins as Scherzer.

FZ may yet regret not bringing in a proven SP at the deadline.  I, for one, wish he had.  For now, his deadline haul stacks up favorably with the Dodgers who everyone thought were the runaway winners of the trade deadline.

Down on the Farm: Alexander Suarez CF

If you think the Giants have way more OF prospects than they'll every be able to use, add another one to the long list.  Alexander Suarez CF, who reportedly is the cousin of another Giants CF prospect, Luis Matos, is making some noise in the Arizona Complex League.  He was signed out of Venezuela in 2018 then only played 12 games in the DSL in 2019 before a season-ending injury, but slashed .308/.472/.487 in 53 PA.  

After COVID wiped out his 2020 season, Suarez resurfaced in Arizona at age 19.  He got off to a good start slashing .312/.376/.468 in July and found another gear in August going .385/.429/.744.  Overall he's slashing .336/.394/560 with 5 HR's 2 triples and 10 SB's in 127 PA.  Of concern is just 6 BB's and 40 K's.  He's listed at 6'2" 160 lbs which suggests he has a lot of room to fill out.

Forever Giant

It looks like Brandon Crawford SS is going to do something very few players get to do, play his entire career with one team.  Yesterday, the Giants announced a contract extension covering 2 years for $32 M.  Those will be his age 35 and 36 seasons.  Based on comments he has made about how he wants his career to end, he will likely retire after that.  This news comes as he puts together what might be the best season of a terrific career at age 34.  Crawford's late career resurgence comes after it looked the Giants might even consider letting him go before the contract was up after a very weak 2019 season.  At that point, most Giants fans and possibly FZ himself were counting the days until the Giants could get out from under his contract and spend the money on cheaper and better options.  The turnaround can be attributed to Crawford's willingness to accept advice from the new young and aggressive coaching staff brought in with Manager Gabe Kapler.  He made changes in his swing and stance which he credits to his success at the plate the last two seasons.  

It was the spring of 2009.  The San Jose Giants were playing the High Desert Mavericks in Adelanto, CA.   Most Giants fans were still disgruntled with the work of Brian Sabean, but there were hopeful things going on in the minor leagues, particularly in San Jose.  Buster Posey C was on that team as was Madison Bumgarner LHP.  The shortstop was Crawford who the Giants had picked in the fourth round after a difficult junior season at UCLA.  Before that, he had been ranked as a potential top 5 draft pick.  I and my family drove up Cajon Pass and out to Adelanto.  We managed to meet up with a dude who went by the screen name of Tacklebox and set about to scout the Giants future.  Tacklebox attended the previous game and was impressed by Crawford's ability to "scoot around" the infield.  At some point, a ball got loose down the LF line and into the bullpen area.  Crawford went after it, picked it up and in one motion threw an off-balance throw that carried on a line all the way to Posey to just miss nailing the runner at home.  TBox and I just looked at each other and said, "yeah!"  Not THAT was a major league play and a major league arm!  

Posey and Bumgarner got to the majors in time to play in the 2010 World Series.  Crawford did not make his MLB debut until 2011 but was a major contributor to the 2012 and 2014 championship teams.  His bat has had its ups and downs and his mobility has been questioned at times, but the arm has been rock solid.  The arm allows him to make plays other shortstops don't make.  It's the one part of his game I doubt will ever be replaced after he retires.  

So, less than two years after it looked like his career was winding down we've gone from counting the days until his contract expires to a two year extension with a nice yearly pay raise to boot, and well deserved at that!

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On a related note, I was looking up Brandon Crawford's game logs.  I did not realize he hit .455 for the month of July and is hitting .349 so far in August.  .455 for a whole month?  That is stupendous!  His power is down since the All-Star Break with just 1 HR, but pitchers are staying away from the inner half of the plate with him.  In the past, he would keep in trying to pull the ball and end up with a ton of groundouts.  Now he's going with the location and punching the ball to the opposite field with spectacular results in his BA.

Are the Giants Over The Hump?

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Giants had the best record in MLB, but were staring at what might be the toughest schedule stretch of the season.  Over the next 23 games they would face 13 against the teams with the #2 record(7 games), the #4 record(3 games) and the #6 record(3 games).  In addition, they faced 3 of the other 10 games against the #17 record(3 games) with 7 against 3 of the bottom 5 teams recordwise.

The Giants had the top MLB Power Ranking coming out of the All-Star break, but MLB jumped on the Dodgers bandwagon after the trade deadline giving them the top power ranking despite the Giants still having the best record.  

So, how did the Giants fare facing that gauntlet of MLB power?  They went 14-9 increasing their lead in the NL West from 2 games over the Dodgers to 4 and over the 3'rd place Padres from 6 to 7.  Those top ranked teams they played?  The Dodgers went from the 2'nd best record in MLB to #3 and the Astros went from #4 to #5 largely because the Giants beat them(5-2 in 7 games vs Dodgers and 2-1 over Astros).  Going to Milwaukee they faced what many considered the hottest team in baseball, the Brewers, who had gone 12-5 since the break.  

The weekend series against the Brewers had the unmistakable intensity of a playoff series.  Two of the games went to extra innings and two were decided by 1 run.  Leads seemed to change hands every few innings.  Relief pitchers were digging deep to pitch in games they otherwise would have been unavailable for.  The Giants took 2 of those 3 games.  

So, what does this all mean?  Are the Giants over the hump and can coast the rest of the way?  We've seen them faceplant against inferior teams too many times to believe that(although they have not done that yet this season).  In addition, although it's been said too many time in other places, I'll say it again, the starting rotation is leaking oil and FZ did not bolster it at the trade deadline.  

Hopefully it's just a "dead arm" phase and the SP's will catch a second wind for the stretch run.  If they do, the Giants will be OK. If they don't, it's not clear where help is coming from.

Kris Bryant Wins Game

 As you may recall, Kris Bryant CF/3B homered in his second AB wearing a Giants uniform on Sunday, August 1 which started a 3-run rally in a game the Giants went on to win 5-3.  Maybe the Giants don't win that game without Bryant's homer rattling the pitcher, but they also scored enough runs to win without it.  Over the next three games in Arizona, Bryant was a non-factor with 2 hits in 9 AB's.  

In yesterday's finale of the 4-game series, Bryant led the way to an epic come-from-behind win which clearly would not have happened had he not been in the lineup.  After mustering just 3 hits in the first 8 innings against D'Backs SP Merrill Kelly RHP D'Backs manager Torey Lovullo went to his bullpen and Bryant led off the 9'th inning with a double, starting a 4-run rally to tie the game.  He then led off the top of the 10'th inning with another double to drive in the designated runner from 2B which proved to be the winning run.  Per Alex P of NBC Sports BA, this was the first time since 1941 the Giants were getting shut out by 4 or more runs in the 9'th inning and still won the game.  It was also the first time the Giants overcame a 4-run deficit in the 9'th of any kind to win the game.

OK, there were several other essential contributors to this win:  Lamonte Wade Jr RF/1B's two run single to drive in the last two runs of the 9'th inning, the bullpen pitching 6 hitless innings and Lovullo's pitching management.  Maybe this game will determine the ultimate winner of the NL West or maybe it will be what gives the Giants the final Wild Card playoff spot, or maybe it won't make a difference in the end.  The Giants don't win this game without Kris Bryant simple as that.  Oh, and Bryant started this game in CF which is where I expect we'll see him most of the time after Evan Longoria 3B returns from the IL.

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Someone asked about re-signing priorities in a comment after a previous post.  We'll get into that more in the days after the season ends, but Kris Bryant and the Giants seem like they're made for each other.  I expect FZ and the Giants to make an all-out effort to re-sign him which will take a contract in the 10/300 range, but he would be a worthy cornerstone to build the next dynasty around.  

As for other Giants on expiring contracts, barring something unforseen in the last two months, I expect the Giants to pick up Buster Posey C's option for the final season of his contract.  I think they will try to re-sign Brandon Crawford SS to a 1-3 year deal but let him go if his market gets too expensive.  It seems like Brandon Belt 1B's knee is a ticking time bomb and FZ wants no part of it.  I'm thinking Kevin Gausman RHP will cost more than what FZ wants to pay for a pitcher.  Whether they give Anthony DeSclafani RHP a QO depends on how he performs down the stretch.  I seriously doubt they pick up Johnny Cueto RHP's option I'm guessing FZ will once again do his offseason pitcher shopping in the One Year Contract aisle.

Down on the Farm: Who's Hot?

AAA:  

After a slow start in Sacramento, Heliot Ramos OF went 4 for 4, 2B on 8/2. 

Joey Bart C hit .400 with 5 HR for the month of July.

Mauricio Dubon IF/OF is hitting .360 since being sent down July 1.

Camilo Doval RHP reportedly hit over 104 MPH on the radar gun a few games back, but is still struggling with command.

AA:

Sean Hjelle RHP had his best start of the season on 8/3:  7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K to lower his overall ERA to 3.15.  He has 69 K's in 65.2 IP with a near-dominant GO/AO= 1.80. Nice job for FZ to hang onto him at the trade deadline.

High A:

Ryan Murphy RHP had a successful high A debut 8/3:  5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K's.

Low A:

Luis Matos OF is scorching hot with a 9 game hit streak in which he is 20 for 39.

Marco Luciano SS hit his 18'th HR on 8/3. He's slashing a solid .278/.373/556 overall for the SJ Giants.

Jairo Pomares OF hasn't stopped hitting since his 2021 season debut on June 15:  .348/.409/.665 overall.

Complexes:

Aeverson Arteaga SS(18 yo) is 3 for 6 first two games in August and .352/425/.659 overall.

Keep an eye out for Manuel Mercedes RHP(18 yo).  He is listed at 6'3" 162 and reportedly sports a high 90's FB and a sharp slider.  He had his best start of the season on 8/2:  6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K's.  He's allowed 2 ER in 16 IP over his last 3 starts with 14 K's.

State of the Race: Giants Throwdown

 I know us Giants fans instinctively hedge our bets when we talk about the season they are having.  Despite winning 3 World Series last decade(yes, that was last decade), we still have an inferiority complex when it comes to the Dodgers who were supposed to be running away with this race by now.  There is still a big part of us that thinks this all might be mirage and the team will collapse after the All-Star Break....wait, what?  Oh!  OK!  Maybe they'll collapse during the dog day of August or during the stretch run in September.  Yes, either or both of those things could easily happen but lets stop, take a breath and appreciate what just went down here.  

The Giants just played the team now tied for the second best record in MLB, the Astros, and the team with the 4'th best record in MLB, the Dodgers, 10 out of their last 13 games.  The Giants went 7-3 in those 10 games including 5-2 against the second place team in their own division which is the same team that MLB gave the #1 power ranking to coming out of the trade deadline.  Take that, Dodgers! 

Speaking of the trade deadline, the Dodgers got a couple of very good players in Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, but the Giants made a pretty good trade of their own in acquiring Kris Bryant who made an immediate impact on the Giants lineup in his debut today.  

If it comes down to a postseason series, the Dodgers and Astros know the Giants can hang with them.d