Thursday, February 21, 2019

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Dominican Dandies- Pitchers

Is is just me, or are the Bryce Harper rumors getting more confusing by the day?  2018 was a big year for LHP's in the DSL.

Ivan Armstrong, RHP.   DOB:  7/27/2000.  6'5", 247 lbs.  International FA, 2017.

2018:  3-3, 3.38 ERA, 56 IP, 7.55 K/9, 5.14 BB/9, 1.71 GB/FB.

Already jumbo sized at age 17.  Allowed 0 hits in one 5 inning start and 1 hit in another, but was inconsistent.  Gotta think there's some upside here, though.


Jesus Gomez, LHP.  DOB:  4/1/2001.  6'2", 180 lbs.  International FA 2017.

2018:  5-0, 2.68 ERA, 43.2 IP, 12.37 K/9, 5.15 BB/9, 3 Saves.

Decent size, nice K numbers.  4 Starts out of 17 Appearances(last 3 Appearances were Starts).  Struck out 15 batters in 8 IP over his last 2 Starts.


Josdeiker Marcano, RHP.  DOB:  8/20/1999.  6'2", 170 lbs.  International FA, 2017.

2018:  2-0, 1.76 ERA, 30.2 IP, 8.51 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 3 Saves.

Inneresting name.  Pitched exclusively in relief.  ERA was better than his secondary stats.


Samuel Quintana, LHP.  DOB:  11/29/2000.  6'5", 215 lbs.  International FA, 2017.

1-2, 4.74 ERA, 24.2 IP, 10.58 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, .404 BABIP, 1.94 GB/FB.

Big time sleeper alert!  Love this kid's size and his secondary stats.


Juan Sanchez, LHP.  DOB:  11/12/2000.  6'2", 165 lbs.  International FA, 2017.

2018:  4-6, 3.39 ERA, 61 IP, 9.30 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 3.19 FIP, 2.66 xFIP.

Got off to a hot start with 20 K's and 1 BB in 20 IP over his first 3 Starts.  Seemed to tire a bit at the end of the season.


Sonny Vargas, LHP.  DOB:  11/8/2000.  6'2", 180 lbs.  International FA, 2017.

2018:  4-2, 3.12 ERA, 57.2 IP, 7.49 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 2.16 GB/FB.

Started out the season on the bullpen but quickly moved into SP role. Seemed to get stronger as the season went along.  Had 5 Starts with at least 5 IP and 0 ER including 4 in a row from 7/27-8/14.

I am excited over this year's class of DSL pitchers.  I am hopeful they will collectively increase the overall pitching depth in the organization.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 8

Let's wrap up the HM's here before diving into the Dominican Dandies.

Fabian Pena, C.  DOB:  10/18/1996.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 25.

2018 R(AZL):  .309/.376/.588, 10 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 10.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 0.73 GB/FB, 110 PA.

College draftee from very small program.  Strong numbers across the board, but in Arizona.


Aynesber Sivira, 2B.  DOB:  1/9/2000.  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 155 lbs.  International FA, 2016.

2018 R(AZL):  .267/.367/.354, 11 2B, HR, 2 SB, 5.3 BB%, 16.5 K%, 1.18 GB/FB, 188 PA.

Small, but dynamic player.  Hit better in Arizona than the DSL but SB's dropped off from 20 to 2.


Beicker Mendoza, 1B.  DOB:  2/14/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.  International FA, 2014.

2018 R(AZL):  .301/.330/.462, 16 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 4.3 BB%, 29.3 K%, 0.84 GB/FB, 188 PA.

Mixed bag.  Strong hit tool with some power, but playing 1B in 4'th rookie ball season does not bode particularly well.  Extremely high K/BB is a red flag too.


Austin Edgette, OF/1B.  DOB:  7/6/1995.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 185 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 33.

2018 R(AZL):  .286/.402/.329, 3 2B, 4 SB, 17.2 BB%, 17.2 K%, 87 PA.

Older senior draftee from small college program.  Intriguing K/BB in SSS....and Arizona.


Patrick Hilson, OF.  DOB:  8/5/2000.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 6.

2018 R(AZL):  .186/.280/.335, 6 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 7.7 BB%, 36.8 K%, 0.68 GB/FB, 182 PA.

Patrick Hilson might be the most tooled up player in the organization but is extremely raw and a project.  Some things to really like here, though:  Flashes of both power and speed and already gets the ball in the air.  K rate obviously has to come down.


Bryan Hernandez, OF.  DOB:  12/24/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 18.

2018 R(AZL):  .138/.342/.190, 3 2B, 3 SB, 21.1 BB%, 38.2 K%, 76 PA.

Gotta love the walk rate, but probably needs to swing more and earlier to bring the K rate down.


Tyler Flores, OF.  DOB:  1/24/1996.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 185 lbs.  Undrafted FA, 2018.

2018 R(AZL):  .296/.392/.390, 7 2B, 3B, HR, 3 SB, 13.8 BB%, 15.3 K%, 0.89 GB/FB, 189 PA.

Nice pro debut, but too old for AZL.

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Hot Stove Update: Padres Reel In Machado; Still Waiting for Bryce

Wow!  The Padres did it!  They landed one of the two premier free agents on the market this year, SS/3B Manny Machado.  The deal is the largest in free agent history(Giancarlo Stanton's was bigger, but it was a contract extension) at 10 yrs/$300 M.  Hopefully this will quiet talk of collusion.  I mean, it's the largest FA contract in history!  Machado is a perfect fit for the Padres who were seen as somewhat weak at SS and 3B.  I would say he should play 3B for them as he is a much better 3B than SS and the bat is obviously good enough that it doesn't matter.  I wasn't thrilled with Machado's hot dog act in the 2018 postseason, but in the overall picture, that is probably a minor concern.

Not only is Machado a perfect fit for the Padres current needs, there is a good chance he will ultimately be a terrific value despite the enormity of his contract and the checkered history of other very large contracts.  Not only has Machado average 4.8 fWAR over the past 6 seasons despite a couple of serious injuries, he's had 3 seasons of 6+ fWAR and 4 of 5+.  Conservatively, market value for wins is $8 M/fWAR.  4.8 X $8 M= $38.4 M.  Machado is only 26 yo and still has at least 6 years of close to peak performance left.  It is my own belief that Machado will age pretty well and has a good chance to maintain solid production to his mid-30's when this contract finally runs out.

The big challenge for the Padres now is to build a pitching staff.  I took a peak at their SP depth chart and it is ugly.  Their bullpen is better, but don't forget they traded away their best pitcher, Brad Hand. So, the Padres are a much better team with Manny Machado, but I'm still not ready to proclaim them a contender unless they find a way to add a couple of good SP's

The Padres were also rumored to be interested in Bryce Harper, but word is that they won't be signing both players which seems to take them out of the running for Bryce, who....well....we are still waiting for.  I would say it is almost certain that Bryce will now seek more than $300 M which many observers believe he will get.  I am not so sure.   For one thing, Bryce Harper's market just shrunk by one team.  It is quite possible he is down to just two interested teams, the Phillies and Giants.  The Phillies are almost certainly offering more total money, but the Giants may be offering a higher Average Annual Value(AAV).  The picture that seems to be emerging from the rumor mill is Bryce wanting the higher total money, but not liking the situation in Philly.  On the other hand, he loves San Francisco and the Giants but doesn't want to accept less total money even for a higher AAV which is understandable.  At this point, it seems likely that Bryce will make us wait awhile longer while Scott Boras tries to drum up another "mystery team."  Another reason I am skeptical of Harper getting a bigger contract than Machado is I don't think I am the only person who thinks he won't age as well as Machado which becomes a big issue when you are handing out 10 year contracts.

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 7

Bruce Bochy announced 2019 will be his last as a field manager.  No big surprise there.  I'll offer my thoughts later.  While we continue to wait for Bryce, let's plow on through the HM's.

Marco Gonzalez, LHP. DOB:  12/8/1997.  6'1", 180 lbs.  International FA, 2015.

2018 R(AZL):  3-7, 6.28 ERA, 57.1 IP, 8.63 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 4.35 FIP, 3.87 xFIP.

Peripherals enough to keep him going.


Jasier Herrera, RHP.  DOB:  1/1/1998.  6'5", 190 lbs.  International FA, 2014.

2018(AZL):  1-4, 3.88 ERA, 55.2 IP, 7.92 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 1.38 GB/FB.

Decent numbers. Intriguing height.


Jacob Lopez, LHP.  DOB:  3/11/1998.  6'4", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 26.

2018 R(AZL):  1-1, 1.42 ERA, 25.1 IP, 12.08 K/9, 2.13 BB/9. 1.67 GB/FB.

Nice pro debut for JC draftee.


Ben Madison, RHP.  DOB:  9/15/1997.  6'3", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 9.

2018 R(AZL):  0-0, 3.38 ERA, 16 IP, 12.94 K/9, 5.06 BB/9, 3.86 GB/FB.

Terrific K and GB rate but too many BB's in a SSS.


Chris Roberts, RHP.  DOB:  7/3/1997.  6'0", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 35.

2018 R(AZL):  2-1, 2.45 ERA, 22 IP, 13.91 K/9, 5.73 BB/9, 4 Saves.

Intriguing K/9 at a low level.


Julio Rodriguez, RHP.  DOB:  2/10/200.  6'3", 180 lbs.  International FA 2017.

2018 R(AZL):  3-1, 2.20 ERA, 16.1 IP, 8.27 K/9, 6.06 BB/9, 2.56 GB/FB.

National attention for spin rate on curveball.  Interesting to see how that translates at higher levels and larger samples sizes.

Monday, February 18, 2019

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Part 6

Francis Pena, RHP.   DOB:  6/2/1997.  6'3", 175 lbs.  International FA, 2016.

2018 R(AZL):  3-0, 3.17 ERA, 54 IP, 6.50 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 2.04 GB/FB.

No scouting report.  Stat line looks like a sinkerballer.  Those guys are having more trouble at higher levels in the launch angle era.


Ricardo Genoves, C.  DOB:  5/14/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 190 lbs.  International FA 2015.

2018 Short Season:  .243/.328/.311, 9 2B, HR, 6.9 BB%, 19.3 K%, 1.27 GB/FB, 22.9 IFFB%, 202 PA.

Former 6-figure bonus baby.  Not a terrible season at Salem-Keizer against mostly older competition. Strong defensive reputation.  Maybe starting C for Augusta at age 20 in 2019?


Nico Giarratano, SS.  DOB: 12/15/1994.  B-S, T-R.  5'11", 172 lbs.  Drafted 2017, Round 24.

2018 Short Season:  .269/.337/.421, 11 2B, 5 HR, 9.3 BB%, 21.2 K%, 0.79 GB/FB. 193 PA.

No-hit SS drafted out of USF.  Solid numbers with some pop in Salem-Keizer, but the NWL was extremely hitter-friendly in 2018.  On the other hand, his GB/FB dropped from over 3.00 to under 1.00 from 2018(SSS) so maybe he's joined the launch angle revolution?  Guessing he'll be assigned to Augusta where we will find out if his newfound bat is for real.


Randy Norris, OF.  DOB:  8/8/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 19.

2018 R(AZL):  .262/.329/.312, 3 2B, 2 3B, 10 SB, 7.7 BB%, 21.3 K%, 155 PA.

Decent numbers in his pro debut, albeit at a low level.


Logan Harasta, RHP.  DOB:  8/29/1996.  6'6", 235 lbs.  Drafted 2017 Round 7.

2018 R(AZL):  1-1, 1.10 ERA, 16.1 IP, 15.43 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 1.75 GB/FB.

Huge RHP missed most of season presumably due to injury.  2019 could be a breakout season for him.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Cameron Maybin; Still Waiting For Bryce

Cameron Maybin, OF.  DOB:  4/4/1987.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 215 lbs.  Drafted 2005, Round 1, Pick 10(Tigers).

2018(2 Teams):  .249/.326/.335, 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 10 SB, 9.9 BB%, 19.5 K%, 1.76 GB/FB, 0.5 fWAR, 384 PA.

Cameron Maybin was once one of the very top prospects in baseball.  He lost traction on his career a long time ago due to multiple ill-timed injuries and a pernicious groundball tendency which robbed him of power opportunities.  He has become a decent utility guy and played all 3 OF positions for 2 teams last year.  He says he's been working with a hitting instructor this winter and hopes that will lead to one last chance for a breakout season.


Meanwhile, no word from Bryce Harper about where he is going to sign.  From the rumors, it sounds like Scott Boras is up to his old tricks and now has at least 3 teams bidding up the price.  Remember that random Twitter user who spotted Larry Baer in the Bellagio in Vegas?  You gotta wonder if he works for Scott Boras.


Here is a list of outfielders currently in camp in one capacity or another.  I've tried to break it down into categories:

40 Man Roster:  Steven Duggar, Drew Ferguson(Rule 5), Chris Shaw, Austin Slater, Mac Williamson(out of options).

Non-Roster Invitee(MLB Experience):  Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra, Craig Gentry, Mike Gerber

Non-Roster Invitee(No MLB Experience):  John Andreoli, Anthony Garcia, Henry Ramos.

As it stands now, barring trades or additional FA signings, Duggar seems like a lock to be at least the strong side of a CF platoon.  Slater and Shaw have options. Duggar, Ferguson and Mac seem likely to make the Opening Day 25-man Opening Day Roster Gotta think at least 1 or 2 out of Maybin, Parra and Gentry make the team for "veteran presence" if nothing else.  The Giants seem more likely to carry 4 OF's than 5, so that may be the roster right there with everybody else being cut loose or going to the minors.  Farhan Zaidi seems to be obsessed with preserving depth, so having an option or a minor league contract without an opt-out is a big handicap toward making the 25-man roster.

Q:  Would a starting OF of Maybin, Parra and Gentry be an upgrade on the 2018 OF?

Sunday, February 17, 2019

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Part 5

Logan Baldwin, OF.  DOB:  4/9/1996.  B-L, T-L.  6'0", 170 lbs.  Drafted 2017, Round 21.

2018:  Low A:  .249/.310/.389, 22 2B, 10 3B, 6 HR, 26 SB, 5.9 BB%, 31.4 K%, 1.52 GB/FB, 23.3 IFFB%, 474 PA.

Aaron Bond gets ranked higher due to his size and impressive numbers in Salem-Keizer, but Bond washed out of Augusta while Baldwin stuck it out for a full season, so maybe Baldwin should be ranked higher?  Baldwin has a nice full stat line.  The double digits in triples and SB's really catch my eye.  He needs to cut down the K's which drag down his BA and OBP.  He developed a reputation for making highlight reel catches in the OF in college and clearly has the speed to cover CF, but mostly ceded CF to Heliot Ramos in Augusta.  Let's move him up and see what he can do in San Jose.


Luis Moreno, RHP.  DOB:  8/3/1998.  6'2", 174 lbs.  International FA, 2016.

2018 Rookie(AZL):  4-2, 2.91 ERA, 58.2 IP, 8.90 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, 1.44 GB/FB.

Moreno came to Arizona after just 1 season in the DSL.  He improved his K rate and BB rate while maintaining a strong GB tendency.  Should move up to Augusta in 2019.


Jesus Tona, RHP.  DOB:  3/30/1996.  5'10", 170 lbs.  International FA, 2014.

2018 Short Season:  0-1, 0.87 ERA, 31 IP, 11.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 0.45 GB/FB, 35.0 IFFB%, 12 Saves.

Converted Catcher.  Move right into a Closer role for Salem-Keizer with impressive results.  Could he be the Closer for San Jose in 2019?


Trent Toplikar, RHP.  DOB:  5/21/1996.  6'4", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 16.

2018 College(UCR):  6-3, 4.07 ERA, 84 IP, 6.64 K/9, 2.04 BB/9.
2018 Short Season:  1-2, 1.23 ERA, 36.2 IP, 6.14 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 1.77 GB/FB.

Toplikar found success in his pro debut despite an unimpressive K rates.  A strong GB tendency helped.  That should continue to work if he can keep his walk rate down.


Keaton Winn, RHP.  DOB:  2/20/1998.  6'4", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2018, Round 5.

2018 Short Season:  3-1, 4.81 ERA, 43 IP, 7.53 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.65 GB/FB.

Another guy the Giants drafted twice. Improved his stock from a low round in 2017 to round 5 in 2018.  Uses his height and a "tall and fall" overhand delivery to get a strong downward plane on a FB that reaches 94.  Can succeed if he keeps his walk rate under 3.00 and his GB rate up.