It wasn't so much David Dahl's home run that ruined Jeff Samardzija's start, but the two walks and infield single that preceded it in the third inning to erase a 2-run first inning lead for the Giants and effectively put this game out of reach. Key lines:
Pablo Sandoval 2 for 4, 2B, HR(10). BA= .288. Pabs' double in the first drove in the Giants first run. He then scored on Alex Dickerson's double. His dinger in the 3'rd inning tied him with Kevin Pillar for most Giants HR's so far this season. Unfortunately, that ended the Giants scoring for the day.
Jeff Samardzija RHP- 5 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 4.52. See intro. Again, HR's alone will not generally kill a start as much as leadoff walks. Shark set the table for David Dahl and that was the ballgame.
Derek Holland LHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 6.17. Holland has allowed just 1 run in 6 IP over his last 3 appearances.
Dereck Rodriguez RHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 4.77. DRod has allowed 2 runs in 7 IP over his last 4 appearances.
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With the Loss, the Giants drop 2 of 3 to the Rockies. They start a 4-gamer against the D'Backs tonight with Tyler Beede facing lefty Alex Young making his major league debut, an event which tends to spell trouble for the Giants. Young was a 2'nd round draft pick in 2015 out of TCU. His ERA of 6.09 in the sillyball league may not be as good a measure of his chances as the 64 K's in 54.2 IP.
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Giants: 12-11 for June, if they split the series, they'll be over .500 for the month and something to build on.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, it's the 4th consecutive losing month and not looking at an easy July.
Symptomatic of the offensive problems is the best oWAR (Baseball Reverence) is Pablo with nearly double the "value" as the next player.
It's just as bad for SP with only Bumgarner and Anderson just peaking over 0.0 WAR.
Just how much will anyone gamble on which Bumgarner they'll get if they buy high: Tuesday's "Ace" or the guy with 12 QS of 17 starts, 3 of them downright ugly? How much is his reputation tarnished by 2 "bad" years due to injuries and bad teams? Who will bet high?
If he won't bring a "quality" player, would the Giants keep him and give him a QO? At least that would give them 3 picks in the top ~50 in next draft.
OR Bumgarner takes the QO and we're doing the rental trade rumours again in 2020...
DeleteHe's very worth that for a year! Win-win
DeleteA lot of assumptions there. If the Giants keep Bum, do they even offer a QO? Does bum accept it? If not, he may be forced to be the next Keuchel and wait until June to sign, denying the Giants compensation.
DeleteAnd I'm not completely clear on current rules regarding compensation for lost QO offer picks, but I know it has to do with how much he signs for (would have to be more than $50 million) and what the Giants payrolls is at the time. The higher the payroll, the lower the draft compensation. I believe, because the Giants do not qualify for revenue sharing, they would receive a compensation pick after Competitive Balance Round B. So, after the first round, Comp A, second round, Comp B. Probably in the 70's or 80's. So, it wouldn't be that great a pick. Definitely not top 50.
If Bum accepts a QO, and continues his decline, what is going to be worth in July of 2020? He'll be owed a lot of money, and really be 3rd or 4th starter at best. No GM is going to buy into World Series magic. (And, don't forget, Bum's ERA in the NLDS and NLCS are both above 4.00).
Bum's bWAR is currently 0.5. That puts him at maybe 1.2 bWAR for the year. Average MLB starter is around 2.0. So, really, in the cold hard light, what is Madison worth?