How Accurate Are MLBTR Free Agent Contract Estimates?

Every year MLBTR posts a list of their top 50 MLB free agents with predictions of what their contract will be both in number of years and in total money.  This is a list of MLBTR's top 50 free agents who have already signed with a comparison to what the players actually received in their contracts.  Coloumns will be Name, Team, Predicted Years, Actual Years, Variance of Actual Years from Predicted Years, Predicted Money($), Actual Money($), Variance of Actual Money from Predicted Money, Percent Variance(+/-).  At the end, we'll post Average Variances and Average Absolute Value of Variances and see how accurate MLBTR is in prediction free agent contracts.

Corey Seager(Rangers):  10 yr.  10 yr.   0 yr.  $305 M. $325 M. +$20 M. +6.6%.

Kevin Gausman(Blue Jays):  6 yr.  5 yr.  -1 yr.  $138 M.  $110 M.  -$28 M. -25.5%. 

Marcus Semien(Rangers):  6 yr.  7 yr.  +1 yr.  $138 M.   $175 M.  +$37 M.  +$26.8%. 

Robbie Ray(Mariners):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $130 M.  $115 M.  -$15 M.  -11.5%.

Max Scherzer(Mets):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $120 M.  $130 M.  +$10 M.  +8.3%.

Marcus Stroman(Cubs):  5 yr.  3 yr.  -2 yr.  $110 M.  $71 M.  - $29 M.  -26.3%.

Javier Baez(Tigers):  5 yr.  6 yr.  +1 yr.  $100 M.  $140 M.  +$40M.  +40%.

Starling Marte(Mets):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $80 M.  $78 M.  -$2 M.  -2.5%.

Eduardo Rodriguez(Tigers):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $70 M.  $77 M.  +$7 M. +10%.

Chris Taylor(Dodgers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $64 M.  $60 M.  -$4 M.  -6.3%.

Raisel Iglesias(Angels):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $58 M.  +$2 M. +3.6%.

Jonathan Gray(Rangers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $56 M.  0 M.  0%.

Anthony DeSclafani(Giants):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $42 M.  $36 M.  -6 M.  -14.3%.

Justin Verlander(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $40 M.  $50 M.   +10 M.  +25%.

Avisail Garcia(Marlins):  3 yr. 4 yr.  +1 yr.  $36 M.  $53 M.  +$17 M.  +47.2%.

Alex Wood(Giants):  3 yr.  2 yr.  - 1 yr.  $30 M.  $25 M.  - $5 M.  -16.7%.  

Steven Matz(Cardinals):  3 yo.  4 yr.  +1 yr.  $27 M.  $44 M.  +$17 M.  +62.8%.

Kendall Graveman(White Sox):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $27 M.  $24 M.  -$3 M.  -$11.1%.

Mark Canha(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $24 M, $26.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +10.4%.

Eduardo Escobar(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $20 M.  $20 M.  0%.

Brandon Belt(Giants):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr(QO).  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $18.4 M(QO).  $0.  0%.

Noah Syndergaard(Angels):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $21 M.  +$3 M.  +14.1%.

Corey Knebel(Phillies):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18 M.  $10 M.  -$8 M.  -44.4%.

Alex Cobb(Giants):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $16 M.  $20 M.  +$4 M.  +25%.

Hector Neris(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Mark Melancon(D'Backs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Corey Kluber(Rays):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $12 M.  $8 M.  -$4 M.  -33.3%.

Yan Gomes(Cubs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $10 M.  $13 M.  +3 M.  +30%.

Andrew Heaney(Dodgers):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $6 M.  $8.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +41.7%.

Average Variance= +$2.5 M

Average Variance(absolute values)= $9.2 M

Average Percent Variance(% of predicted)= 4.9%.

Average Percent Variance(absolute value, % of predicted)= 18%.  

Cumulative Percent Variance= +4.1%

Cumulative Percent Variance(absolute value)= $15.4%

Conclusions:  MLBTR slightly underestimated the overall market.  While variance for individual contracts was fairly high, they overestimated and underestimated approximately equally so their average estimated contract is quite close.  They got the number of years right most of the time and of the ones they missed on most were by just one year.

Based on MLBTR's estimates, it appears both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood gave significant discounts to stay with the Giants while they slightly overpaid Alex Cobb to sign coming from the Angels.  And of course, almost everybody thought the Giants would give Brandon Belt a QO and that he would accept.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 1

 Round 1(#10 overall):  Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.  

2019 Minors(2 teams):  .229/.438/.429, 5 HR, 7 SB, 38 BB, 39 K, 146 PA.

2021 Minors(3 teams):  .133/.286/.178, 8 BB, 22 K, 56 PA.

2021 AFL:  .262/.373/.381, 6 BB, 20 K, 42 AB.  

Bishop is a guy with huge tools who was drafted out of a big junior season with Arizona St.  Potential red flags in college included high K rates and struggles against stronger competition.  We probably can't make too much out of his initial pro season which produced an extreme three true outcomes batting line.  2021 was mostly lost to injury.  His bat showed signs of life in the Arizona Fall League but still with an extreme K rate and the only HR he hit was in the Fall Stars game.  It's too early to call Bishop a bust, but 2022 will be a huge, almost make-or-break year for him.

What has to be frustrating for Giants fans is that Alek Manoah RHP was taken by the Blue Jays with the next pick and he's already pitching like a near-ace in the major leagues.  Bryson Stott SS was taken 4 picks later by the Phillies and hit .301 with 10 HR's in AA ball.  The Mariners got George Kirby RHP at #20.  He looks like he should break into the majors in 2022.

*************************************************************************************

Most MLB drafts are made or broken at the top of the draft.  The Giants first two picks in this draft, Bishop and Wyatt have yet to find anything resembling traction in their professional development.  The most promising picks are a couple of bullpen arms from deep in the draft.  Of the hitters, Armani Smith shows the most promise and he's not exactly a sure thing.  Again, too early to write it off, but this draft is on bust watch.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 2

 Round 2:  Logan Wyatt 1B.  DOB:  11/15/1997.  B-R, T-L.  6'4", 230 lbs.

2021 A+:  .238/.398/.295, 20.1 BB%, 18 K%, 289 PA.

The latest "God of Walks".  The walk rates are fantastic and the K rate is also quite good.  The problem here is the complete absence of power, even doubles power.  He's a 1B/DH only guy and the power simply has to come or he doesn't have a role on a MLB roster.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Two Minor League Deals

The Giants added a couple of minor league deals reported yesterday.    Let's break it down.

Bryan Brickhouse RHP.  DOB:  6/6/1992.  6'0", 195 lbs.  

2021 AA(Dodgers):  1-3, 3.45, 60 IP, 7.65 K/9, 2.40 BB/9(10 Starts in 19 Appearances).  

Brickhouse pitched 6 seasons in the Royals organization since 2012(DNP 2016 and 2017).  He was plagued by wildness until he hooked on with the Dodgers last year and produced his best BB/9 by far.  If he sustains that, he provided depth in the upper minors with potential for a midseason callup if a need arises at the MLB level.

Jason Krizan UT.  DOB:  6/28/1989.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.  

2021 AAA(Giants):  .316/.367/.492, 16 HR, 8.1 BB%, 14.6 K%, 480 PA.  

Krizan has played every position but catcher in his minor league career.  His versatility is a big plus and he provided depth at multiple positions.  Similar player to Tommy La Stella.  I could see him filling in for that role if Tommy's return from Achilles Tendon surgery is delayed.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 3

Round 3:  Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/07/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

 2021 Rookie:  .309/.400/.455, HR, 3 SB, 9 BB, 20 K, 65 PA.

2021 A:  .250/.299/.400, 2 HR, 4 SB, 6 BB, 30 K, 88 PA.  

Son of Rodney McCray who had a brief MLB career but is more famous for crashing through a minor league OF wall.  Grant was always a project and pure projection pick.  If you squint hard you can see a starting MLB CF/leadoff hitter with some power, speed and OBP skills.  Important development year coming up.  Should be ready to play full season of A ball in San Jose.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 4

 Round 4:  Tyler Fitzgerald IF.   DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.  

2021 A+:  .262/.342/.495,  28 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 12 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32.2 K%, 432 PA.

Nice combination of power/speed here.  The jump in K rate from 20% to 32% is a bit alarming, but the Giants philosophy apparently is to not worry too much about K rate.  49 out of 100 hits went for extra bases.  He keeps this going at AA in he's knocking on the door.  Size projects for even more power.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 5

We'll slow it down here and review the last 5 picks individually.  

Round 5:  Garrett Frechette 1B.  DOB:  12/31/2000.   B-L, T-L.  6'3", 200 lbs.  

2021 Rookie:  .331/.388/.438, 13 2B, HR, 6.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 188 PA.

2021 A:           .219/.268/.289, HR, 5.7 BB%, 31.7 K%, 123 PA.

Overslot bonus for HS draftee.  Fell to 5'th round due to injury and illness his senior year of HS.  Big, strong LH hitter with a sweet swing that projects for contact and power.  Struggled with a reasonable assignment in A ball, then destroyed the complex league.  Still shows just doubles power in games but also still filling out frame.  Needs to find traction in San Jose in 2022. 

Free Agent Smackdown: Kris Bryant vs Tommy Pham

Most analysts agree the Giants have two more big needs to fill before the season starts:  A RH bat for the OF and another SP.  If you start by assuming the Giants can afford to spend up to the CBT threshold, or at least close to it, they have plenty of room to spend.  On the other hand, a rumor circulated this week that the Giants are not interested in signing a 9-figure contract with any player this winter, which completely changes the field of what players they may be interested in signing.  With that in mind, let's to a comp for two free agent OF's at the opposite ends of the projected cost spectrum and see who you would sign if you were FZ and Giants ownership.

Kris Bryant 3B/OF(actually any position other than C and P).  DOB:  1/4/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 230 lbs.

2021(2 teams):  .265/.353/.481, 25 HR, 10 SB, 10.6 BB%, 23.0 K%, 3.6 fWAR.

2022(Steamer):  .251/..343/.445, 23 HR, 7 SB, 10.8 BB%, 23.2 K%, 2.7 fWAR.

Projected FA Contract(MLBTR):  6 yrs/$160 M.

Strengths:  Versatility, power, can carry a team for long stretches, relative youth for a FA, relatively affordable.

Weaknesses:  Below average defender at all positions, can have long cold stretches, frequent injuries over past several years, projected length and total cost of contract.

Tommy Pham OF.  DOB:  3/8/1988.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 223 lbs.  

2021(Padres):  .229/.340/.383, 15 HR, 14 SB, 13.9 BB%, 22.8 K%, 1.5 fWAR.

2022(Steamer):  .258/.354/.429, 18 HR, 15 SB, 12.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, 2.2 fWAR.

Projected FA Contract(MLBTR):  Honorable Mention out of top 50.  FA's in 40-50 range getting 1-2 years at $6-9 M/yr.  Let's say 1 yr/$8 M.

Strengths:  Versatility(does not play IF, but can play all 3 OF's positions), Great OBP skills, relatively poor 2021 may be due to offseason stabbing injury and resulting deconditioning which should be in past with full offseason to prep, possible motivation to bounce back, power and speed when healthy, low cost, short term commitment.

Weaknesses:  2020 was also a poor season(small sample), lack of power over last 2 seasons, advancing age(34 in Jan, 2022).  

Q:  If you are FZ and Giants ownership, which of these two FA's do you sign?:

Kris Bryant

Tommy Pham

Neither

Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 6-10

10.  Jeff Houghtby 2B.  DOB:  5/13/1997.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.  

Retired(5/3/2021).  Throw-away extreme underslot pick to free up money for overslot deals for other players.

9.  Simon Whiteman SS.  DOB:  1/28/1997.  B-R, T-R.  5'10", 165 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  .244/.357/.350, 4 HR, 34 SB.  

Another extreme underslot deal, but Whiteman is not going away quietly.  He made it to AA and held his own.  No power to speak of, but his combination of OBP and SB's is intriguing and could eventually get him to a MLB utility role. 

8.  Caleb Kilian RHP.  DOB:  6/2/1997.  6'4", 180 lbs.  

Minors(3 teams):  7-4, 2.42, 100.1 IP, 13 BB, 112 K.  

Traded to the Cubs in the Kris Bryant deal.  I really liked the Kilian pick, the only pitcher in the Giants top 10 for 2019.  He is starting to get some national attention as a legit MLB prospect.  Tremendous K/BB.  Not sure if he has enough stuff to play at higher levels but he dominated AA.

7.  Armani Smith OF.  DOB:  7/19/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 215 lbs.

Minors(2 levels):  .290/.353/.476, 12 HR, 6 SB, 351 PA.

Big bodied OF out of UCSB.  SJ was probably too low a level for him but he continued to hit in A+ Eugene.  I guess the big test, as always, will come in AA Richmond.  We'll see if the Giants are bold enough to start him out there in 2022.

6.  Dilan Rosario SS.  DOB:  6/16/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.  

Rookie:  .209/.292/.316, 2 HR, 178 PA.  

Overslot bonus.  I really liked his PG profile before the draft.  Struggled to find traction in his second stint in rookie ball.  Still has time on his side.

Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 11-15

15.  Carter Aldrete IF.  DOB:  10/12/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 205 lbs.  

A+:  .240/.301/.393, 9 HR, 8 SB, 7.6 BB%, 31.3 K%, 288 PA.  

Mike Aldrete's nephew.  Not the numbers you want to see from a 24 yo in A+ ball.  

14.  Nick Morreale RHP.  DOB:  7/27/1997.  6'5", 220 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  2-0, 4.35, 31 IP, 15 BB, 44 K.  

1.46 ERA in 12.1 IP, in Rookie ball, 6.27 ERA in 18.2 IP, in A+.  K rate will probably be enough to get him another look in 2022.

13.  Harrison Freed OF.  DOB:  5/13/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 205 lbs.  

A:  .233/.322/.369, 8 HR, 2 SB, 7.5 BB%, 29.2 K%.  

Very similar numbers as Carter Aldrete but at a lower level.

12.  Chris Wright LHP.  DOB:  10/14/1998.  6'1", 205 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  4-0, 1.00, 45 IP, 21 BB, 789 K, 21 Saves.  

Impressive season spent mostly in A+ ball as Closer for the Eugene Emeralds(Darn!  I so wanted to write Salem-Keizer).  Could be fast riser in 2022.

11. Trevor McDonald RHP.   DOB:  2/26/2001.  6'2", 180 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  2-4, 4.09, 67.2 IP, 31 BB, 69 K.  

HS draftee with overslot bonus.  Always understood to be a project.  All but 2.2 IP in complex ball.  Started all but 2 appearances  Appears to be on schedule but will need to break out at some point.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Alex Blandino To Minors Deal

The Giants signed infielder Alex Blandino to a minor league deal with a spring training invitation(BTW, I was under the impression that spring training invites could not be part of minor league deals during the lockout, but that is apparently not the case).  

Alex Blandino IF.  DOB:  11/6/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 190 lbs.  

Majors(3 seasons):  .226/.339/.291.  

2017(AA/AAA):  .265/..382/.453, 12 HR, 473 PA.

2021(AAA):  .102/.289/.153, 76 PA.

Alex Blandino was drafted #29 overall by the Reds in 2014 out of Stanford.  Early in his pro career he showed extreme selectivity and patience at the plate with decent pop.  Unfortunately the power eventually cratered although he still draws a lot of walks along with the accompanying K's.  He has played all 4 IF positions so could be useful as a utility guy if any semblance of power showed up again.  Another project for the Giants coaching team.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Buy A Pitcher

Ripple effects of the Rule 5 draft continued as the Giants purchased minor league pitcher Tanner Andrews from the Braves for cash the day after he was selected from the Marlins organization in the Rule 5 Draft.  So who is Tanner Andrews?

Tanner Andrews RHP.  DOB:  11/15/1995.  6'3", 225 lbs.  

2019(2 levels):  8-5, 3.50, 128.2 IP, 39 BB, 110 K.  

Senior college draftee(10'th round) out of Purdue in 2018, Andrews showed nice progress through 2019.  Then COVID wiped out the 2020 season and he underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2021 after pitching just 5.2 IP.  He should be ready to pitch sometime late in 2022 and the Giants can get extra innings to look at him in the 2022 Arizona Fall League.  They will then have to either add him to the 40 man MLB roster or risk losing him in next year's Rule 5 draft or as a minor league FA.  No scouting reports I could find.

Hot Stove Update: Minor League Rule 5 Draft

MLB held the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft yesterday.  Just a few clarifications about the minor league phase before we breakdown the results.  Organizations can protect additional players in the minor league phase by placing them on the AAA roster which has 38 slots and again, I believe it is limited to players with 4 years of pro experience drafted out of college and 5 years for HS or younger international signings.  Unlike the MLB phase, drafted players do not have to be offered back and can ultimately be placed at any minor league level the following season.  With that introduction out of the way, let's break it down.

Giants minor leaguers were popular in this draft with a total of 6 taken by other organizations.  The Giants added just one player, Michael Gigliotti.  Churn effects were evident as only 2 of the departing players were drafted and developed by the Giants.  Here's the list:

Conner Menez LHP, Cubs.  A mild surprise Menez was not protected on the AAA roster.  Giants obviously felt they had seen enough of him and moved on.

Matt Seelinger RHP, Phillies.  Seelinger was acquired a couple of years ago in a trade.  Was clearly an organizational pitcher without significant MLB prospects.

John Nogowski 1B, Braves.  The Braves sure seem to like ex-Giants players.  Nogowski was signed to a 2 year minor league deal in September 2021.

Vince Fernandez OF, A's.  Fernandez went to college at UC Riverside so I was hoping the Giants coaches could help him break through.  Hits for some power but struggles to make contact.

Jon Duplantier RHP, Dodgers.  Duplantier was just signed to a minor league deal a week ago.  Now grabbed by the Dodgers.  May have the most upside of any of the players the Giants lost here.  Grrr!!!!

Let's take a closer look at Michael Gigliotti, the latest player to enter FZ's Churn:

Michael Gigliotti OF.  DOB:  2/14/1996.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 180 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  .228/.380/.481, 4 HR, 6 SB, 100 PA.  

I really liked Gigliotti as a speed/leadoff/CF prospect entering his junior season at Lipscomb.  He got off to a slow start to the 2017 season and ended up drafted in round 4 by the Rays.  He's maintained a high OBP and SB rate with little power in the pros but has not played above A+ level.  Players who fit his profile have become extremely rare in the major leagues.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Rounds 16-20

 20.  Najee Gaskins OF.  DOB:  9/7/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  .261/.306/.391, 3 HR, 3 SB, 125 PA.  

Gaskins is the type of prospect hurt most by the contraction of the minor leagues.  Given the Giants depth of outfield prospects, he may find it tough to get AB's at levels above the complex leagues.  Fringe prospect at best.

19.  Kanoa Pagan RHP.  DOB:  9/29/1998.  6'2", 190 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  0-1, 5.40, 8.1 IP, 8 BB, 6 K's.  

Pagan has struggled so far in his pro career.  Will struggle to stay in the organization after the Giants pitching-heavy draft of 2021.

18.  Cole Waites RHP.  DOB:  6/10/1998.  6'3", 180 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  2-0, 0.68, 13.1 IP, 6 BB, 31 K, 2 Saves.  

2021(AFL):  0-0, 16.20, 8.1 IP, 8 BB, 11 K's.  1 Save.

Hard throwing.  Finished minor league season as Closer for the SJ Giants.  Struggled in AFL. Entire 2021 still adds up to small sample.  Any pitcher who throws that hard with those K rates has a shot to pitch in the majors.

17.  Connor Cannon 1B/DH.  DOB:  5/16/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 240 lbs.  

2021:  DNP(Traded to the Yankees as the PTBNL for Mike Tauchman.

Cannon has tremendous power when healthy but missed most of his college career due to injury and spend all of 2021 on the IL.  Tauchman is no longer with the Giants either but his game-saving catch of a potential walk-off HR against the Dodgers was one of the biggest turning points of the 107 win 2021 season.  If that's all the Giants get from a 17'th round draft pick, it's a successful pick.

16.  Brandon Martorano C.  DOB:  6/1/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'2', 198 lbs.  

2021 A+:  .333/.463/.560, 2 HR, 4 SB, 95 PA.

2021 AA:  .176/.306/.361.  6 HR, 2 SB, 144 PA.

Third tier catching prospect with a bit of power(9 HR in 240 total milb PA's).  Most likely an organizational level player.

Hot Stove League Update: Lockout Can't Stop The Churn

FZ seems pretty unfazed by the lockout.  Since the lockout only applies at the MLB level, FZ is free to Churn on and that's pretty much what he does anyway.  The Churn swept up 3 new pitchers on minor league deals.  Let's take a look and see who they are:

Jon Duplantier RHP.   DOB:  7/11/1994.  6'4", 229 lbs.  

Minors:  1-0, 7.88, 8 IP, 5 BB, 5 K's.  

MLB:  0-3, 13.15, 13 IP, 8 BB, 12 K's.

Duplantier is the best known of the three signings.  He is a former 3'rd round draft pick out of Rice by the D'Backs in 2016.  By 2018 he looked like a future star but then a series of injuries derailed his career.  Can he be another FZ reclamation special? 

Gray Fenter RHP.  DOB:  1/15/1996.  6'0", 200 lbs.  

AA:  6-4, 5.47, 77.1 IP, 48 BB, 86 K.  

If you look at terrible teams who lead MLB in giving up on players who blossom for other teams, the Orioles are definitely in the discussion.  Fenter is another Orioles castoff who obviously needs to improve his walk rate.  Can Giants coaches help him do that?

Mauricio Llovera RHP.  DOB:  4/17/1996.  5'11", 224 lbs.

AAA:  2-2, 3.46, 52 IP, 24 BB, 48 K.  

MLB:  1-0, 9.45, 6.2 IP, 4 BB, 7 K.

Previously in Phillies organization.  That's all I've got.

Thoughts on the Lockout

 We live in a crazy world right now and it does not get much crazier than the MLB player lockout which started at 12:01 this morning.  Anyone who thinks that either side needs this has only to look at what happened in preceding week.  If either side seriously thought they would gain a significant advantage when an agreement is reached we would not have seen the frenzy of free agent signings we just witnessed.  It was obvious both management and players desperately wanted to get as many deals done UNDER THE EXISTING AGREEMENT as possible.  I mean, if both sides like it so much, why not just extend it for another 5 years?  Sure, there would need to be some minor changes rightfully favoring the players:  Continue raising the CBT threshold, raise the minimum wage players for players in the first 3 years of service time.  On the competition side, I personally would like to see a universal DH and a pitch clock.  Electronic strike zone is too much to hope for, but that would be nice too.  Instead we get an unnecessary work stoppage which will likely not end before the scheduled start of spring training.  

More thoughts:

1.  I do not recall a commissioner more blatantly championing the owners.  Rob Manfred was MLB's labor negotiator before he became commissioner and it's pretty clear he did not leave that role behind.  His open letter needlessly blasted the MLBPA and held them responsible for the lockout when it was the owners who implemented it.  I know the U.S. Congress has much more important things to worry about, but they had more important things to worry about when they gave MLB an antitrust carve out.  Congress and the Labor Department should demand that MLB get an more impartial commissioner or the antitrust exemption ends.

2.  Given the current climate, I don't see this ending without the start of the season being pushed back.  Both sides seem determined to get every last crumb of the best deal possible. You don't do that unless you are willing to go to the brink. In this case, the brink is Opening Day.  So figure out at what point spring training has to start to not push back Opening Day and that is the very earliest we can expect a deal.

3.  On a lighter note, I bet FZ and Kap are secretly hoping this wipes out the season and they get to play with scrubs/scabs.  Between FZ's ability to identify potential breakthrough talent and Kap's staff's ability to coach them up, the Giants would be the runaway favorites to win the World Series!