Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Jorge Guzman To Minor League Deal

The Giants made a bit of an unusual move reported today.  They signed a minor league free agent to a 2-year contract.

Jorge Guzman RHP.  DOB:  1/28/1996.  6'1", 246 lbs.  

2021(AAA):  0-1, 3.52, 15.1 IP, 11.74 K/9, 5.28 BB/9.

2021(MLB Marlins):  0-0, 32.40, 1.2 IP, 16.2 K/9, 32.4 BB/9.

Guzman is a fireballing RHP who underwent elbow surgery in September of 2021 which means he will likely miss all of 2022 which explains the 2-year contract.  The scouting report on Guzman is high 90's FB which has topped out at 102 MPH.  Secondary stuff is inconsistent and he has struggled with high walk rates.  The Giants can now supervise his rehab, hope his velocity returns and parlay that into a bullpen arm for 2023 and/or beyond.  The Giants will be Guzman's fourth organization.  He was traded from the Astros to the Yankees for Brian McCann and then from the Yankees to the Marlins in the Giancarlo Stanton deal.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospect Profiles: Randy Rodriguez

Someone mentioned Randy Rodriguez RHP in a comment.  Gotta admit I completely forgot about him.  Not sure exactly where I would rank him but almost certainly in the top 30.  

Randy Rodriguez RHP.   DOB:  9/5/1999.  6'0", 166 lbs.  

2021(A):  6-3, 1.74, 62 IP, 14.66 K/9, 3.34 BB/9.  

I'm not exactly sure why Randy Rodriguez needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  By my count, he only had 4 seasons of service time(counting 2020) and was signed prior to his 18'th birthday, but what do I know?  He apparently was Rule 5 eligible and the Giants added him to the 40-man roster over Seth Corry LHP and Prelander Berroa RHP who both were definitely eligible.  That tells you something right there.  Thanks to old friend, Wrenzie Regodon over at Around the Foghorn, we have a scouting report on Rodriguez.  Despite his relatively short stature, he flashes a FB up to 98 MPH with a sharp slider and a rapidly developing changeup that is becoming a strikeout weapon against LH batters.  That 3-pitch mix led FZ to comment that Rodriguez may have a future as a SP and thus may not be on the reliever fast track to the majors.  He has 3 options years so there is no rush.  On a statistical note, Rodriguez did not allow a run of any kind over the final two months of the 2021 season while striking out 50 against just 3 BB's in 28.1 IP.  Per Wrenzie, this dominance seemed to come with the emergence of his changeup as a weapon against LH batters.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top Prospects Profiles: Bonus Picks

Before we get into the profile countdown of my Giants Top 50 prospects, we'll do Jason Krizan and by popular demand, Brett Auerbach.  I think you could make a pretty good case for both to be top 50 but then we'd have to bump someone else who is deserving too.  

Jason Krizan UT.  DOB:  6/28/1989.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.   

2021(AAA):  .316/.367/.492, 16 HR, 8.1 BB%, 14.6 K%.  

Most ratings would consider Krizan a career minor leaguer or a post-prospect and he is both of these.  On the other hand, he's never played a game at the MLB level and has a shot to do that for the first time in 2022.  He played every position except C, SS and CF in AAA last year but his main position is 2B.  His lefty bat puts him in the same lane as Tommy LaStella.  Uncertainty around when LaStella will be ready to play gives Krizan a shot as the strong half of the 2B platoon to start the season.  It would make a nice story of perseverance.  

Brett Auerbach UT.  DOB:  8/27/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 185 lbs.  

2021(A):  342/.448/.521, 2 HR, 12 SB, 15.2 BB%, 20.0 K%, 145 PA.

2021(A+):  .256/.333/.533, 15 HR, 18 SB, 8.1 BB%, 26.9 K%, 223 PA.

Auerbach went undrafted in 2020, although in fairness that draft was only 5 rounds.  It sounds like many teams called him with offers after the draft.  He chose the Giants.  He played multiple positions in college but his main positions were catcher and 2B.  He only hit 7 HR's in his college career the exploded for 17 across two levels in his pro debut.  Add in 30 SB's and you have a really intriguing prospect with a skill set that reminds of Craig Biggio. You've heard of him?  Auerbach should get his chance to show if he can get over the AA hump in 2022. If he does, we could see him play in SF as early as 2023.  He'll likely be an immediate fan favorite.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Matt Carasiti Again

 The Giants made another minor league signing with a guy who you might have missed on his last trip through The Churn.  Matt Carasiti signed a minor league deal prior to the 2020 season but he suffered an injury in spring training and underwent Tommy John surgery.

Matt Carasiti RHP.  DOB:  7/23/1991.  6'3", 210 lbs.  

2019 AAA(Cubs):  1-1, 2.67, 27 IP, 7.57 K/9, 3.67 BB/9, 1.38 GB/FB.

2019 AAA(Mariners):  1-0, 4.96, 16.1 IP, 9.37 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.67 GB/FB.

2019 MLB(Mariners):  0-1, 4.66, 9.2 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.66 BB/9, 1.27 GB/FB, 95.4 FB Velocity.

Carasiti's main pitch is a 95 MPH sinker with secondary pitches evenly divided between a cutter and split.  He'll serve as an intriguing bullpen depth arm for the Giants in 2022.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects

Time to revive and roll out the top 50 prospect list.  As always, please don't get too hung up on the exact order here.  It's just too hard to accurately weight proximity/experience vs ceiling, pitching vs hitting and positional strength to get too precise in these listings.  The main purpose of the exercise is to get a better idea of who we might see playing in a Giants uniform in coming years.  With that said, on to the list!

1.  Marco Luciano SS

2.  Luis Matos OF

3.  Joey Bart C

4.  Heliot Ramos OF

5.  Kyle Harrison LHP

6.  Will Bednar RHP

7.  Jairo Pomares OF

8.  Patrick Bailey C

9.  Hunter Bishop OF

10.  Aeverson Arteaga SS

11.  Ryan Reckley SS

12.  Camilo Doval RHP

13.  Sean Hjelle RHP

14.  Ryan Murphy RHP

15.  Ricardo Genoves C

16.  David Villar 3B

17.  Diego Rincones OF

18.  Matt Mikulski LHP

19.  Nick Swiney LHP

20.  Will Wilson IF

21.  Luis Toribio 3B

22.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP

23.  RJ Dabovitch RHP

24.  Kervin Castro RHP

25.  Gregory Santos RHP

26.  Armani Smith OF

27.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS

28.  Adrian Sugasty C

29.  Garrett Frechette 1B

30.  Alexander Suarez OF

31.  Mauricio Pierre OF

32.  Esmerlin Vinicio LHP

33.  Carson Ragsdale RHP

34.  Prelander Berroa RHP

35.  Manuel Mercedes RHP

36.  Eric Silva RHP

37.  Seth Corry LHP

38.  Conner Nurse RHP

39.  Ismael Munguia OF

40.  Sean Roby 3B/1B

41.  Frankie Tostado 1B/OF

42.  Chris Wright LHP

43.  Cole Waites RHP

44.  Logan Wyatt 1B

45.  Grant McCray OF

46.  Trevor McDonald RHP

47.  Norwith Gudino RHP

48.  Simon Whiteman IF

49.  Casey Schmitt 3B

50.  Matt Frisbee RHP

51.  Jason Krizan IF(Bonus Pick)

Let me know if you see any glaring omissions or misplacements.  We'll do a profile on each of these between now and the start of spring training, whenever that is.

Hot Stove Update: Could Carlos Martinez Be The Next Kevin Gausman?

A perfect lead-in to this post came today via Kevin Gausman's Twitter account.  He says the Giants never made him an offer.  OK, I actually wasn't necessarily under the impression the Giants did make him an offer, but apparently some folks did and Kev is settin' the record straight.  From this bit of information, I think it's fairly safe to conclude the Giants knew what Gausman's market was, weren't comfortable with it and did not want to insult him with what they wanted to pay for whatever reason.  Maybe they are totally against any and all 9 figure contracts or maybe Gausman's second half performance made them think he is not worth that much even if some other pitcher might be.  

That brings us to the idea that if the Giants weren't interested in signing Kevin Gausman after he resurrected his career in SF, they might well be interested in signing someone who could replicate what Gausman did in his two seasons in SF, which is pitch himself from being nearly out of a baseball job into a 9 figure contract, albeit with some other team.  My job here it to convince you, and maybe FZ, that pitcher is Carlos Martinez.

Carlos Martinez RHP.  DOB:  9/21/1990.  6' 0", 200 lbs. 

2021(Cardinals):  4-9, 6.23, 82.1 IP, 6.23 K'9, 3.94 BB/9, 50.2 GB%, 4.75 FIP.

Except for the GB% that is a terrible line, no doubt.  But the GB% is elite, one of the highest in MLB and the Giants seem to like GB pitchers which makes sense when you have a GG shortstop and a near GG 3B picking it in the IF.  I took a look at Martinez' Game Logs.  What I found was 7 QS out of 16.  That projects to 14 over a full season of 32 Starts(Martinez' season ended with a torn thumb ligament on July 4).  There were only 30 pitchers in all of MLB with more than 14 QS.  Logan Webb had 14 QS in 2021.  Martinez had two disaster starts in which he gave up a total of 18 ER in 3.2 IP.  If you take out those two starts, his ERA for the remaining 78.2 IP is 4.46. not great, but not terrible either.

Per Fangraphs, Carlos Martinez threw 5 types of pitches in 2021.  All were right around average in quality.  I could be interpreting the headings wrong but it looks like the Cut Fastball was his worse pitch and he threw it 22% of the time.  Pitchers do not need to throw 5 different pitches and the Giants coaching staff are known to be good at identifying pitches to drop.  They are also known to be good at improving the effectiveness of already good pitches.  Fangraphs also shows solid FB velocity at 93.8 average MPH.

Carlos Martinez is already significantly better than his pitching line would indicate.  He's been an elite pitcher in the past.  MLBTR does not list him as even Honorable Mention in their top 50 FA's which means his signing price should be around 1 yr/$5 M.  He will undoubtedly be looking to replicate Gausman's career resurrection with some team and what team is more likely to help him get there than the Giants?  

Hot Stove Update: Scouting Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

It's impossible to list every possible trade target, but there are two MLB teams, the Reds and A's, widely believed to be intent on reducing payroll with pitching they are willing to trade.  Given the trade incentive is mainly to reduce payroll, the cost in prospects may not be as prohibitive as we might think.  Here are six pitchers from the Reds and A's.

Tyler Mahle RHP, Reds:  DOB:  9/29/1994.  6'3", 210 lbs.  Arbitration Eligible(MLBTR Projected $5.6 M).  FA 2024.

2021:  13-6, 3.75, 180 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.20 BB/9.  

Mahle is a workhorse innings eating SP who will take a prospect or two to pry loose given he has 2 years of team control on his contract.

Luis Castillo RHP, Reds:  DOB:  12/12/1992.  6'2", 200 lbs. Arbitration Eligible(MLBTR Projected $7.6 M).  Free Agent 2024.

2021: 8-16, 3.98, 187.2 IP, 9.21 K/9, 3.60 BB/9.

Castillo got off to a terrible start in 2021 but turned his season around with a 3.18 ERA in the second half.  2 years of salary control via arbitration will also increase his price in prospects.

Sonny Gray RHP, Reds:  DOB:  11/7/1989.  5' 10".  195 lbs.  3yr/$31.5 M(2020-2022, $10 M in 20222 with 2023 club option for $12 M).

2021:  7-9, 4.19, 135.1 IP, 10.31 K/9, 3.33 BB/9.    

Gray's contract is really a bargain but might be too much for the Reds to maintain so they may be willing to part with him for a lesser prospect haul to get salary relief, yet he is eminently affordable for the Giants.  He would be a nice fit in their rotation though not quite the upgrade that Mahle or Castillo would be.

Frankie Montas RHP, A's:  DOB:  3/21/1993.  6'2", 255 lbs.  Arbitration Eligible(MLBTR Projected $5.2 M).  Free Agent 2024.

2021:  13-9, 3.37, 187 IP, 9.96 K/9, 2.74 BB/9.  

Montas is a stud but has some injury history and a PED suspension in his rearview mirror. 

Chris Bassitt RHP, A's:  DOB:  2/22/1989.  6'5", 217 lbs.  Arbitration Eligible(MLBTR Projected $8.8 M M).  Free Agent 2023.

2021:  12-4, 3.15, 157.1 IP, 9.10 K/9, 2.23 BB/9.  

Expensive enough that the A's may want to dump him but affordable for a team like the Giants.  Giants would probably not want to give up too much in prospects for essentially a 1 year rental.

Sean Manaea LHP, A's:  DOB:  2/1/1992.  6'5", 245 lbs.  Arbitration eligible(MLBTR Projected $10.2 M).  Free Agent 2023.  

2021:  11-10, 3.91, 179.1 IP, 9.74 K/9, 2.06 BB/9.  

Most expensive salarywise which might make him the least expensive in prospects for trade.  

Any of these 6 pitchers would meet the Giants need for another frontline SP.  None of them are quite aces but they all could be as much as a #2 behind Logan Webb.  It just comes down to how much FZ is willing to part with prospects to fortify the rotation for another run in 2022.

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Remaining Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Most analysts agree the Giants need to acquire another established starting pitcher and preferably one who would be at worse a #2 behind newly minted ace, Logan Webb.  In the week leading up to the lockout, SP's were signed right and left leaving less than ideal choices still on the market as MLBTR's top 6 ranked SP FA's are already off the market.  Let's break down what's left.  Once again, we will use MLBTR's salary projections which seem to be the most accurate of the free agent predictions out there.  

Carlos Rodon LHP.  DOB:  12/10/1982.  6'3", 245 lbs.  1 yr/$25 M.  

2021:  13-5, 2.37, 132.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.  

Looking at those numbers you might reasonably think MLBTR's projected FA contract is absurdly low, and it may well be because a whole lot of teams seem to think he's a potential bargain, which means someone is probably going to overpay and by a lot.  So why is MLBTR so low on Rodon?  He seemed to run out of gas at the end of the season with a velocity slide from 96 MPH down to 91 MPH in his start of 9/29/2021.  He reportedly was back up to 96 in his next start 12 days later in the ALDS.  What seems very odd is the White Sox, who seem to be in a contending window apparently decided to let Rodon go without even offering him a QO which raises the question of whether they know something about his health.  If he's available on a one year deal, he's certainly in intriguing fit for the Giants, but I feel like he's going to generate a bidding war which the Giants don't seem interested in joining for any player which is probably a good policy.

Clayton Kershaw LHP.  DOB:  3/19/1988.  6'4", 225 lbs.  1 yr/$20 M.

2021:  10-8, 3.55, 121.2 IP, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9.

There are all kinds of reasons why Clayton Kershaw won't pitch for the Giants in 2022 or ever, but man!  It sure would be fun to see!  It's not completely unprecedented for a former Dodgers ace to pitch for the Giants in the twilight of his career.  Orel Hershiser did.  But Clayton Kershaw is on a whole other level than Orel Hershiser ever thought of being.  The other problem with Kershaw is he was injured at the end of the season and into the NLDS and reportedly received a platelet-rich plasma injection into his flexor tendon which is not the UCL but it's not a good sign going forward.  The dilemma is how to you sign an aging, injured pitcher without either overpaying or insulting the guy.  That's a dilemma it's probably better to let the Dodgers wrestle with.

Yusei Kikuchi LHP.  DOB:  6/17/1991.  6'0", 200 lbs.  2 yr/$20 M.  

2021:  7-9, 4.41, 157 IP, 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.

Those aren't terrible overall numbers for Kikuchi but his spin rates and ERA collapsed in the second half.  The Mariners understandably did not want to risk his 4 year/$66 M option.  Kikuchi declined his own 1 yr/$13 M option.  If the Giants coaches think they see a way to fix his spin rate, they could see him as a bargain at MLBTR's price point.

Zack Greinke RHP.  DOB:  10/21/1983.  6'2", 200 lbs.  1 yr/$15 M.

11-6, 4.16, 171 IP, 6.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9.  

Another guy who collapsed at the end of the season.  Maybe coming off  the shortened 2020 season it was too much to expect SP's to go right back to their previous full season workload?  MLBTR's price looks pretty good for a savvy veteran pitcher who as an ace as recently as 2019, especially to a team like the Giants who are good at managing workloads.

Danny Duffy LHP.  DOB:  12/21/1988.  6'3", 205 lbs.  1 yr/$10 M.

2021:  4-3, 2.51, 61 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9.  

Great numbers but missed most of the season with a recurrent flexor strain.  Giants reportedly had interest at the trade deadline.  FZ seems to think injury history creates buyi-low opportunities.  

Others:

Johnny Cueto RHP:  I could see the Giants bringing Cueto back on a one year deal with incentives but he may not be a fit if they are committed to Joey Bart as their starting catcher.

Michael Pineda RHP:  Pineda is coming off a couple of sub-4.00 ERA seasons with the Twins.  Not sure why he is not in MLBTR's Top 50 FA's.  Frightful injury history but again, that does not seem to faze FZ.  

Bargain Bin:  

Brett Anderson LHP, Zach Davies RHP, Mike Foltynewicz RHP, Kwan Kim LHP, Carlos Martinez RHP, Garrett Richards RHP, Matt Shoemaker RHP, Drew Smyly LHP. 

Martinez is the most interesting name in that bunch to me.  I'll break his case down in another separate post.

As you can see, the free agent market has a lot of empty shelves.  We may see a bidding war for Rodon which the Giants won't and shouldn't get involved in.  Kershaw is a big injury risk and not coming here anyway.  That leaves Kikuchi and Greinke as potential short term, low risk options.  In the next post, we'll break down the trade market which is considerably more robust for pitchers than hitters.

International Signing Update: Giants Big Players In Delayed Signing Start

 The Giants have not made any big splash international signings since Marco Luciano in 2018.  That's not to say they have not landed some solid prospects since, but it feels nice to finally see them associated with names on the international top 30 lists.  Pre-COVID, this cycle would have kicked off on July 2 of 2021 but it was once again pushed back to January of the following year.  Is January 15 the new normal start date moving forward? (Signing bonuses listed are reported, not disclosed)

The Giants reportedly signed two of the top 30 international prospects from this cycle including MLB Pipeline's #9, Ryan Reckley SS and #30 Juan Perez C.  Here's the breakdown:

Ryan Reckley SS(Bahamas):  17 yo.  B-S, T-R.  5'10", 170 lbs.  Signing Bonus $2.2 M.

Reckley is a switch-hitting SS prospect from the Bahamas.  His scouting report rates his scouting grades from 45-60 with power his weakest tool and run his strongest.  MLB Pipeline has him with an "excellent feel for hitting and an understanding of the strike zone" and a "short, compact swing with above-average bat speed."  "Speed to steal bases."  "Good footwork, quick hands and enough arm strength to stay at shortstop."  Reckley's signing gives the Giants a third solid SS prospect joining Marco Luciano and Aeverson Arteaga.  Will Wilson may be a fourth, but his pro performance has disappointed so far.

Juan Perez C(Venezuela):  17 yo.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 170 lbs.  Signing Bonus $1.2 M.

Perez's tools grade 50-55 across the board except run of 30 which is not surprising for a catcher prospect.  Right now, his defense is rated as being ahead of hitting but shows "solid bat speed" and "drives the ball across the outfield, primarily to right-center field."  "solid bat to ball skills."  "Physically, Perez is strong and his strength translates to all parts of his game." Perez joins a stable of catching prospects in the Giants organization which includes former first round draft picks Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey along with international six-figure bonus baby, Ricardo Genoves.

Dennys Riera SS(Venezuela):  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 165 lbs.  Signing Bonus $700 K.

No scouting reports available that I could find.

The Giants reportedly signed 8 other international prospects including 4 RHP's, 2 OF's, and another C and another SS.  Overall they signed 5 prospects from Venezuela, 3 from the DR, 1 from Bahamas, 1 from Colombia and 1 from Panama.

It's very tough to project international prospects at signing due to their extremely young age.  They tend to be harder to predict than HS draft picks.  On the other hand, a significant slice of the MLB talent pool pie comes out of the internatonal market and teams who aren't active in it are cheating themselves out of up to 1/3 of their potential talent.  So, it's good to see the Giants out there competing for the top international talent.

Hot Stove Update: Minor League Free Agent Signings

MLBTR reports the Giants have signed Corey Oswalt RHP, Joe Palumbo LHP, Sam Delaplane RHP and Luis Gonzalez OF to minor league free agent contracts.  Palumbo and Gonzalez are re-signings and Delaplane may be.  Oswalt is new to the organization and may be the most impactful of the four.

Corey Oswalt RHP:  DOB:  9/3/1993.  6'5", 250 lbs.  

2021(AAA):   1-1, 4.15, 13 IP, 10.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9.

2021(Mets):    1-1, 10.1 IP, 8.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9.

Oswalt was released by the Mets despite putting up better than decent numbers last year albeit in small samples.  Per Fangraphs he throws 3 pitches:  FB averages 92.2 MPH, cutter and changeup.  He has modest to good K rates with low walk rates.  He is a swingman who made 3 starts out of 9 appearances at the two levels last year.  He could be used in multiple roles including opener, spot starter and multi-inning relief.

Joe Palumbo LHP:  DOB:  10/26/1994.  6'1", 168 lbs.  

2021(AAA):  1-2, 13.50, 6.2 IP, 9.45 K/9, 13.50 BB/9.  

2022 will be Palumbo's second year post surgery.  Put up a K/BB of 11.34/4.32 in 2019 for the Rangers.  BB rates have tended to be on the higher side throughout his career.  FB went 94 MPH in 2019 with a slide and changeup.  He ditched the changeup in 2020 and added a slider.  He's an intriguing project for the Giants pitching wizards.

Sam Delaplane RHP:   DOB:  3/27/1995.  5'11", 175 lbs.

2019(AA):  3-1, 0.49, 37 IP, 14.11 K/9, 2.19 BB/9.  

Out with TJ surgery in 2021.  Projected return to action mid-2022.  Stuff got a strong review from Fangraphs Mariners Top 38 Prospects last year checking in at #13.  Features an almost straight over-the-top delivery.  

Luis Gonzalez OF:  DOB:  9/10/1995.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 185 lbs. 

2021(AAA):  .241/.352/.423, 7 HR, 9 SB, 13.5 BB%, 25.2 K%, 163 PA.

2021(White Sox):  .250/.455/.500, 27.3 BB%, 18.2 K%, 11 PA.

Underwent shoulder surgery in August 2021 and was released by the White Sox due to what MLBTR described as "40-man roster machinations".  He will almost certainly be invited to spring training and will be a depth option in The Churn. Third round draft pick in 2017. I remember scouting him before the 2017 draft.  He put up interesting college numbers for New Mexico.

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Outfield Trade Market

Last post we looked at some OF bat options for the Giants on the free agent market.   Here we will look at some potential trade options.  Realistic trade proposals are close to impossible to get right.  There are just too many unknowns and biases involved.  We have very little way of knowing what players may be available in trade, how much their current team values them, how much the Giants may be willing to give up. Then there are own biases which almost always overvalue Giants players and undervalue potential trade targets.  The trade market for OF bats seems rather small.  The two teams most likely looking to dump mid-level salaries, the Reds and A's have mostly pitching available.  With that in mind, here is a short list of potential OF trade targets I've put together.

J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, Mets.  DOB:  4/27/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 215 lbs.  

2021(Mets):  .285/.384/.436, 5 HR, 11.4 BB%, 32.2 K%, 211 PA.

Fangraphs scouting report gives him a 70 for raw power and a 70 arm.  The reason why he is widely believed to be available is the Mets signing of Starling Marte and Mark Canha pre-lockout.  On the other hand, the Mets do not appear to be in a position where they have to trade him.  He is arbitration eligible but not a free agent until 2025 and still has minor league options. Underwent surgery to repair a torn thumb tendon in his left hand early in the offseason.

Brent Rooker, OF, Twins.  DOB:  11/1/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 225 lbs.  

2021(AAA):  .245/.367/.564, 20 HR, 14.2 BB%, 30.0 K%, 267 PA.

2021(Twins):  .201/.291/.397, 9 HR, 7.0 BB%, 32.9 K%, 213 PA.

I loved Rooker coming into the 2017 draft out of college.  He's kind of a RH hitting version of Kyle Schwarber, 3 true outcomes hitter with Fangraphs rated 65 raw power, 50/60 game power.  Played both corner OF positions with the Twins but not well. Value goes way up if NL adopts the DH.  Twins need pitching and may prefer Trevor Larnach in the RH hitting corner OF role.  Not clear Rooker is an upgrade over Austin Dean who the Giants already have on their 40 man roster.

Garrett Cooper OF/1B. Marlins.  DOB:  12/25/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 235 lbs.  

2021(Marlins):  .284/.380/.465, 9 HR, 12.0 BB%, 27.2 K%, 250 PA.  

May or may not be available for trade.  Arbitration eligible and emergence of younger players may make him too expensive for the Marlins taste.  MLBTR projection for arbitration salary:  $3 M.  Solid Bat with modest L-R split and surprisingly an average to above-average defensive OF.

Wil Myers OF/1B, Padres.  DOB:  12/10/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 207 lbs.  

2021(Padres):  .256/.334/.434, 17 HR, 8 SB, 10.8 BB%, 28.2 K%, 500 PA.

One year left on a contract with scheduled salary of $21 M and an option for 2023.  Padres are thought to be desperate enough to get rid of him to include a prospect in a trade.  Not as bad a player as he's been made out to be and he's historically killed the Giants, but has not earned WAR points commensurate with his salary, thus the widespread hatred.  Giants can afford his salary for 1 year and wouldn't mind having to pitch to him for 19 games per year.  Padres might not want to deal within the NL West.

Mitch Hanigar OF, Mariners.  DOB:  12/23/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 213 lbs.  

2021(Mariners):  .253/.318/.485, 39 HR, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 691 PA.

Coming off a huge season.   Availability?  Well, everybody is available in Jerry DiPoto's world!  Likely would require a huge haul of top prospects.

Whit Merrifield OF/2B, Royals.  DOB:  1/24/1989.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 195 lbs.  

2021(Royals):  .277/.317/.395, 10 HR, 40 SB, 5.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, 720 PA.

Perennial trade candidate who never gets traded.  Still on a team-favorable contract with the Royals who don't have to trade him but they are in rebuild mode.  Would take a significant prospect haul and he's not really a power bat but also not a great leadoff guy due to relatively low OBP.  Speed is an added dimension, though.

The free agent market probably makes more sense for the Giants.  On paper, Seiya Suzuki looks like the perfect fit with Kris Bryant probably a close second.  There are some intriguing trade options and probably many we haven't even thought of.  I mean, how many of us heard of LaMonte Wade Jr before last season?

Hot Stove Update: Scouting Available Outfield Bats

In previous posts we established the Giants are looking for a righthanded hitting bat for the outfield but a lefthanded hitting upgrade would probably help just as much.  We also established that MLBTR is quite accurate in predicting free agent contract terms.  We also speculated that FZ may have waited on the market to see whether he would need to fill a DH role for the NL Giants next season.  With that said, let's break down the market for OF bats coming out of the lockout, whenever that is.  Contract numbers are MLBTR predictions(although it is almost certain the Giants can easily afford to pay for any player they want, regardless of cost).  2022 projections are from Steamer(Fangraphs).

1.  Kris Bryant IF/OF.  DOB:  1/4/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6 yr/$160 M.

2021(2 teams):  .265/.353/.481,  25 HR, 10 SB, 513 PA.

2022(Proj):  .251/.343/.445, 23 HR, 614 PA.

Positives:  Versatile, can play any position except catcher and pitcher although probably best at 3B and LF.  Small platoon split.  Power.  

Negatives:  Not a great fielder at any position.  Not a great fit for RF in Oracle Park which is probably Giants biggest positional need.  Injury history.

2.  Nick Castellanos RF/LF/DH.  DOB:  3/4/1992.  B-R, T-R.  5 yr/$115 M.

2021(Reds):  .309/.362/.576, 34 HR, 585 PA.  

2022(Proj):  .269/.330/.484, 29 HR, 666 PA.

Positives:  Best, most consistent bat on the market.  Value goes way up if NL gets DH.

Negatives:  Not good defensively at any position.  Limited to corner OF.  Once called Comerica Park a joke, presumably because it's hard to hit there, so may not dig playing home games in Oracle Park either.

3.  Kyle Schwarber LF/DH.  DOB:  3/5/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 230 lbs.  4 yr/$70 M.

2021(2 teams):  .266/.374/.554, 19 HR, 471 PA.

2022(Proj):  .238/.344/.494, 35 HR, 583 PA.

Positives:  Patience/Power.  Value goes way up if NL gets DH.

Negatives:  Historic low BA's.  Inconsistent past performances.  Not good defensively and limited to LF/DH.

4.  Seiya Suzuki OF/IF.  DOB:  8/18/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 182 lbs.  5 yr/$55 M(+posting fee).

2021(Japan):  .317/.433/.636, 38 HR, 9 SB, 538 PA.  

2022(Proj):  Not Available.

Positives:  Power and plate discipline appear to be legit.  Versatile fielder but best position seems to be RF where he has a 70 arm and enough speed to cover Triples Alley.  Giants have historic and community Asian connections.  Young age(2022 is age 27 season).

Negatives:  Not much.  Batting lines from Japan don't always translate to MLB?  Maybe Giants have philosophical problem with posting fee?  

Based on last post analyzing Giants needs, seems like an almost perfect fit.

5.  Jorge Soler OF/DH.  DOB:  2/25/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 235 lbs.  3 yr/$36 M.

2021(2 teams):  .223/.316/.432, 27 HR, 516 PA(OPS .658 with Royals, .882 with Braves).

2022(Proj):  .238/.331/.469, 33 HR, 631 PA.

Positives:  Off the charts raw power(hit 48 HR's in a tough ballpark in 2019).  Value goes way up if NL adopts DH.  Relatively low cost(MLBTR).

Negatives:  Defensively challenged at all positions.  Uneven past performance.  Injury history. 

6.  Michael Conforto OF.   DOB:  3/1/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 215 lbs.  1 yr/$20 M.

2021(Mets):  .232/.344/.384, 14 HR, 479 PA.

2022(Proj):  .254/.358/.452, 25 HR, 607 PA.

Positives:  Versatile defender who can play CF in a pinch.  Main position RF.  Potential 1 year deal?

Negatives:  Large platoon split(unclear how an upgrade on YtY).  Coming off a down season.

7.  Nelson Cruz DH.  DOB:  7/1/1980.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 230 lbs.  1 yr/$10 M.

2021(2 teams):  .265/.334/.497, 32 HR, 584 PA.

2022(Proj):  .267/.342/.500, 32 HR, 580 PA.

Positives:  Reliable power.  Value goes way up if NL adopts DH.  Probable 1 yr deal.

Negatives:  Age will eventually catch up.  Limited to DH.

8.  Tommy Pham OF.  DOB:  3/8/1988.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 223 lbs.  1 yr/$8 M?(not projected by MLBTR).

2021(Padres):  .229/.340/.383, 15 HR, 14 SB, 561 PA.  

2022(Proj):  .258/.354/.429, 18 HR, 15 SB, 555 PA.

Positives:  Intriguing bounceback candidate.  Can play all 3 OF positions.  Low cost.

Negatives:  Coming off 2 down seasons.  Questionable circumstances around stabbing incident in which he was seriously injured prior to the 2021 season.  

9. Joc Pederson OF.  DOB:  4/21/1992(is he already 30 yo?).  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 220 lbs.  1 yr/$8 M?(not projected by MLBTR).

2021(2 teams):  .238/.310/.422, 18 HR, 481 PA.

2022(Proj):  .236/.316/.448, 24 HR, 523 PA.  

Positives:  Local connection(grew up in Bay Area).  Seems like a good clubhouse guy.  Postseason reputation.  Low cost(projected).  

Negatives:  Platoon bat(not a clear upgrade on YtY).  

Next post we will review potential trade candidates.

Hot Stove Update: Do The Giants Need A RH or LH Bat?

 Conventional Wisdom is the Giants biggest non-pitching need of the offseason is a RH bat who would mainly play OF but as we all know, FZ values versatility.  But is the Giants need limited to RH bats?  Let's start with what they currently have on their 40-man roster and see what could be upgraded.  Apologies if this seems like a rewarmed OF depth chart breakdown but we're looking at it from a slightly higher altitude than each individual OF position.  We'll start with RH bats.

RH OF Bats:

Darin Ruf:  DOB:  7/28/1986.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 232 lbs.  

2021:  .271/.385/.904, 16 HR, 312 PA.  

What if the RH OF masher the Giants seem to be looking for is already on their 40 man roster?  We tend to think of him strictly as a platoon bat who kills LHP's but he OPS'd .824 against RHP's.  We also think of him as being defensively challenged but per Fangraphs UZR, he was a neutral defensive LF in 2021.  So, I challenge someone to explain why Ruf can't take the lion's share of LF innings in 2022 and do it better than most, if not all of the RH bats on the market?  Maybe the only back up you need for him is a late-inning defensive replacement.

Austin Slater:  DOB:  12/13/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 204 lbs.

2021:  .241/.320/.423, 12 HR, 15 SB, 306 PA.

Unlike Darin Ruf, Slater is a true platoon player with a pretty good OPS of .894 against LHP's but a brutal .497 against RHP's.  What saves Slater is he is a plus defensive OF, even in CF, which means he can be not only a platoon CF but a late-inning defensive replacement.  Not saying he's not expendable with the right upgrade but he's got a bit of a unique skillset which is not that easy to replace.

Heliot Ramos:  DOB:  9/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 188 lbs.

2021(AA/AAA):  .254/.323/.432, 14 HR, 15 SB, 495 PA.

The Giants and their fans have high hopes for Heliot.  At some point he deserves a full half season of MLB AB's to prove himself, but he just turned 22 yo and clearly can use some more salt in the minors before he gets that shot.  The Giants may not want to block him longterm, though.

Austin Dean:  DOB:  10/14/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 215 lbs.

2021(MLB):  .233/.342/.400, 38 PA.

2021(Minor- 2 teams):  .246/.368/.456, 68 PA.

Dean is in The Churn but he looks like he could be a FZ special and might be the top candidate to be this year's Max Muncy.  His milb OPS was 1.035 with 18 HR's in 2019 and .922 with 12 HR's in 2018.

Jaylin Davis:  DOB:  7/1/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 205 lbs.  

2021(MLB):  .111/.111/.222, 9 PA.

2021(AAA):  .230/.317/.503, 11 HR, 3 SB, 186 PA. 

Davis missed most of 2021 with injuries but still managed to flash some power and a solid walk rate in a SSS for Sacramento.  He'll need to show something in spring training and then stay healthy to avoid getting washed down FZ's sluice box.  Could he be a candidate for the 2022 Randy Elliott Award?

LH OF Bats:

Mike Yastrzemski: DOB:  8/23/1990.  B-L, T-L.  5'10", 178 lbs. 

2021:  .224/.311/.457, 25 HR, 532 PA.

Prior to last season, the CW on YtY was he could play against play against LHP's.  Then he OPS'd .848 against RHP's in 2021 but only .513 against LHP's.  FZ may need to either find a RH platoon partner for him in RF or find a fulltime RF and pair him up with Slater in CF where he is only a slight downgrade on D from Steven Duggar or to partner him with Ruf in LF except Ruf hit RHP's as well or better than YtY last year.  It appeared to me that YtY got pull happy last year and it was most pronounced against LHP's.  Can he correct that and will it correct the split gap?

Steven Duggar:  DOB:  11/4/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 187 lbs.  

2021:  .257/.330/.437, 8 HR, 7 SB, 297 PA.  

Duggar's ticket is his D in CF, although per Fangraphs UZR, he is only slightly better out there than YtY.  While Duggar's platoon splits are not as pronounced as YtY's or Wade Jr, he's not that great against either hand and his numbers fell off dramatically after the All-Star break.  Is his D in CF enough to keep him around?

LaMonte Wade Jr:  DOB: 1/1/1994.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 205 lbs. 

2021:  .253/.326/.482, 18 HR, 6 SB, 494 PA.

Wade Jr essentially didn't play against LHP's and was terrible against them when he did.  His OPS of .860 against RHP's and versatility makes him a nice platoon player but also limiting in terms of roster construction.  He struggled dramatically in the final week of the regular season and postseason and appeared to develop two huge holes in his swing, up and in and down and in.  Was that a temporary slump or did pitchers finally get a book on him?  

So what can we take away from all this?  I'll give it a shot but am interested in comments from readers:

1.  Darin Ruf was a better hitter AND fielder in LF last year than any OF bat on the free agent market.  There's no guarantee he repeats that but there is also no guarantee any free agent delivers as expected either.

2.  Steven Duggar and Austin Slater were more productive in a platoon in CF last year than any reasonable CF option on the market, although Duggar faded in the second half.

3.  YtY probably needs a RH hitting platoon partner in RF, but FZ is unlikely to pay top dollar for the short end of a platoon.  He could slide over to CF and pair up with Slater if the Giants have lost confidence in Duggar's bat.

4. Heliot Ramos could be ready by midseason.....or not.

5.  Austin Dean is a "Max Muncy" style breakout candidate.  Will he get that opportunity?

6.  It's not clear how LaMonte Wade Jr fits into the scenario.  Both he and YtY could be trade candidates if the Giants sign a top dollar FA to man RF.

7.  It's not as easy to upgrade the Giants current OF mix as it might appear on the surface.

Next post we'll take a look at some market options that might upgrade the Giants OF.  An NL DH would create opportunities for PA's, but roster spots are a limited resource and a dedicated DH takes up a roster spot.