Sunday, April 10, 2011

Down on the Farm: Special Report From Lake Elsinore 4/10/2011

Well, I went to the game in Lake Elsinore today. What a day, what a game! The San Jose Giants players lived up to their promise, and then some, dominating the Lake Elsinore Storm in every phase of the game, 10-0.

It was a bright sunny spring day in Southern California with temperatures hovering right around 70. I arrived about 30 minutes before game time and got in a ticket line. An older lady(she was actually probably about my age, but I like to think she was older) came up to me and asked if I was buying a single ticket. I said yes. She said she was there with her mother and her father was not able to attend and they were looking to give away a single ticket. It was in Section 101, row D Seat 7 directly behind home plate! I offered to pay face value for the ticket but they wouldn't accept. So I got one of the best seats in the house free. On to the game! Key Lines:

Gary Brown- 1 for 3, 2 BB, SB(6), CS(1). BA= .333. Brown did not look as big today as I remember him from Spring Training in Arizona. The walks look good in the box score. I couldn't tell if they reprsented good plate discipline or not as none of the pitches he took were at all close to being strikes. From his stance and approach at the plate, he looks like he will be more of a groundball/line drive hitter with very little power. He is very aggressive on the basepaths. The most significant play scoring easily from 3B on a passed ball that only got a short way away from the catcher, but Brown saw it immediately, got a great jump and was already crossing the plate by the time the catcher got to the ball.

Ryan Cavan- 0 for 4. Cavan is even smaller than Brown. I doubt his power holds up at higher levels.

Chris Dominguez- 3 for 5, 2 HR's(2). BA= .389. We'll see if he can maintain it for a full season, but right now, Dominguez is red hot. He is both huge and athletic looking. He seemed to have a surprisingly good approach at the plate. He struck out swinging the first two AB's, but in his next 3 AB's really found the range. He took an outside pitch on a line to right-center for his first HR. The Diamond has a short RF with a "monster" fence. Dominguez' HR was over the 348 ft sign where the wall is shorter. Would have been a double in most ballparks. It was hit hard enough, and on a line, that I think it would have gone through the gap though. Later he shot a grounder down the RF line and then purposely stopped between first and second to try to get into a rundown to allow a runner ahead of him to score. LE foiled that plan by picking off the runner trying to come home for out #3. Wierd play! The last AB Chris crushed one to dead LF, which is about 390 ft away in that park. No doubter, that one is out in any park! Chris looked surprisingly nimble around 3B too with a strong throwing arm. I know he has his warts, but based on what I saw today, I would say Chris Dominguez might be one of the most underrated prospects in all of baseball! The upside is enormous! He may not have more than a 10 year MLB career because he has developed so slowly, but those 10 years could be jaw dropping!

Tommy Joseph- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(1), BB. BA= .412. Tommy Joseph has a massively compact body. He also has a very compact, powerful swing! He also struck out his first time up, but later in the game put on a show! The HR was back-to-back with Chris Dominguez' first shot. Tommy's was a line drive down the LF line that got out in a hurry and was a no-doubter. Gone in any ballpark. The double was probably hit harder but farther right to straightaway LF and it clanged off the LF fence that is at least 390 ft away at that point. That ball is out of most ballparks! Man, what a powerful righthanded power duo in the middle of the San Jose lineup! Joseph played catcher and I thought he handled himself well catching some pitchers with premium stuff. He may need some work on the mechanics of getting off a throw but his arm looked strong. He's no speed merchant on the basepaths but seemed to run OK when he came home on a hit after his double.

Jarrett Parker- 2 for 5. Parker is kind of tall and lean. He doesn't appear to have much power. He had one nice hard-hit grounder up the middle for one hit and easily beat out a broken bat slow grounder to 2B later in the game. He looks like he can cover some ground in RF.

Carter Jurica- 0 for 2, 2 BB. Jurica is big for a SS. He was not particularly impressive at the plate. He made a nice charge on a slow roller in the first inning and gunned it to first in time after kind of hesitating on the throw. He also went back nicely on a booper over his head that he ended up catching easily in short LF. I did not see any difficult lateral plays so can't really say if he has the range to play SS at higher levels. I would say he has the arm, though. Now we'll have to see if the size translates into hitting.

Zack Wheeler- 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K's. I was a bit worried when Zack walked leadoff batter Rico Noel on 4 pitches in the first and then went to 2 balls on the #2 hitter. He really settled down after that, though. The stadium gun was not working at first. A couple of stadium employees fiddled with it for an inning or two and finallly got it working with numbers that were believable. Zack was throwing mostly fastballs in the 92-95 MPH range. The most frequent number I saw was 93. His secondary stuff looks to to be rather primitive at this point and he seldom threw it. He was able to just blow the FB by the LE hitters. It must have had late sink because they mostly beat it into the ground, although he did get 3 pop fly outs. There were no balls hit hard off him in the 5 innings he pitched. Zack looks like an ever so slightly slimmer version of Matt Cain. He holds his glove in front of him with the ball in it and his arm at his side while he's getting the sign, just like Cainer. The delivery is also similar with a deliberate start and then exploding directly to home plate. Maybe Cainer maintains his leg kick a bit longer into the delivery, but other than that, Zack could be Matt's mini-me out there, though not so mini! I've seen Cain, Merkin Valdez and Tim Lincecum pitch in the Cal League, and Zack certainly held his own with that group and more. Very impressive performance.

Jose Valdez- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. I really wanted to see Valdez pitch and wasn't disappointed. He is huge out on the mound. Some of the LE fans were commenting on his size. He featured a sinking, running fastball that was 90-94 MPH, mostly at 92. He complemented that with a very nice sharp slider that he used to keep hitters off balance and as a put away pitch. While the velocity readings were not eye popping, he is so long he delivers the ball closer to home plate so the FB is effectively faster. Some of his pitches looked like they were being released halfway to home plate!

Jose Casilla- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K's. Jose again had a sinking fastball at 89-92 MPH. Ironically he had more FB outs that GB's in this one. A couple of balls were hit hard but at fielders. One thing I noticed is he brings the ball back and extends his arm behind him, then hesitates with it out where the hitter can see it. I wonder if he loses deception and hitters can track his pitches longer making him more hittable? Just an observation.

Heath Hembree- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. This was really the treat of the day and I would have missed it if I had left early. Hembree gave up a ground ball hit and a bloop hit to open the bottom of the ninth inning, but then really settled down. Hembree featured a hard, overpowering fastball that ran 93-95 MPH. The last pitch of the game was a 96 mph seed that was called strike 3 by the ump. The batter looked helpless! If you ask me right now who the Giants closer of the future is, I would say Hembree without very much hesitation at all!

All in all, from a purely scouting/future potential standpoint, I would rate this San Jose team the most impressive I have seen, and that's saying something when you think of some of the names that have come through there in recent years.

10 comments:

  1. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110410&content_id=17634800&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

    wheeler's game plan was old school

    why use secondary pitches when you dont need to

    wahahahaaaaaaa

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  2. Thanks DrB for the great review of the ballgame in San Jose. My question is of all the players you saw today, who do you think has the best chance of making it the big leagues? Wheeler? Was he the most impressive player you saw?

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  3. Anon,

    There was a lot to be impressed about with the San Jose team, so it's hard to say who was the most impressive. If you hold me to just one player who is the most likely to make an impact at the major league level, I'd probably say Hembree. He had the most impressive stuff and has the easiest path to the majors as a reliever. That's not to take anything away from Wheeler, believe me. Barring injury and assuming a normal development curve, Wheeler is going to be no less than a #2 starter someday. As a starter with more innings to log between now and then, I think injury is a bigger concern for him than Hembree.

    As impressive as the pitchers were, the position players were pretty darn impressive too. Tommy Joseph is just plain scary! Somebody packed a monster into a normal sized body with him. I'm trying to think of comps and it's kind of tough. The closest I can come to is a bigger version of Steve Garvey or a more tightly packed Jeff Kent. He's going to hit, and hit a ton, no question in my mind. The only question is where is he going to play? I thought he looked better at catcher than I expected him to.

    And Chris Dominguez! Oh my gosh! What an impressive physical specimen. It looks to me like he has worked on his approach at the plate. If he can keep hitting, he's going to surprise a lot of people. The sky is the limit there. I'll say if he can hit just .240-.260 in the majors, he can hit 40+ HR's.

    I was honestly a bit less impressed with Brown, but maybe my expectations were too high, or different or something. He's got some speed, but I'm not sure he's as fast as Darren Ford, to name one. I'm not at all sure he's going to hit either. He struck me as a RH batting OF version of Emmanuel Burriss. It was just one game though.

    The players I saw who I'm confident we will see in the majors in some capacity or another are Hembree, Wheeler, Valdez, Joseph, Brown and Dominguez, probably in that order. As far as the highest ceiling? It's between Wheeler, Joseph and Dominguez.

    I know that's not a straighforward answer, but hope it helps.

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  4. Great rundown DrB, thanks, you got me really excited about a number of players, though I'm disappointed Brown looks like a RH Burriss. Maybe he's a alum bat hitter, but I would think that him being able to hit that much better than almost anyone else in the Big West would translate into some ability with the wood bat.

    The silver lining I would note on Brown is that he might be adjusting to life as a pro as well as learning to hit with a wood bat. It took him his freshman year to figure out how to hit in the college environment. Then it took another year before he mastered that league.

    Yeah, Hembree is one guy who looks very exciting as a future closer, he was so dominant in the AFL. And he'll be ready about the time when Wilson will be entering his free agent years.

    The guy who you have really fired me up about is Dominguez, which I guess is not that hard to do since you are so fired up about him. By the time he's ready, Pablo will probably be ready to move to 1B, or do you think he can be OK in LF?

    But we are going to need players to step up in 2-3 seasons as that is when our current crop in the majors will be moving on as free agents, so your reports are very heartening that we will get the reinforcements we need at the right time.

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  5. DrB, thanks for the great rundown. That game must have been fun to watch seeing these good prospects in San Jose. Wow, sounds like the team has pitching, power, and speed. It sounds promising for the future. I read a BA scouting report that Joseph was banged up last year, and it may have effected his hitting. Maybe he'll breakout this year, we'll see.. I'm learning a lot about the Giants minor league prospects on this blog. Thanks, keep up the good work.

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  6. Have the Giants fixed Gary Browns stance yet? Or does he still have happy feet in the box?

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  7. Everybody,

    Yes, I am still stoked beyond belief about what I saw yesterday. I would say, more often than not, when I go to minor league games I come away just a bit disappointed. Maybe a player just doesn't look as impressive as I had envisioned, or maybe the velocity doesn't come up to what I've read in BA or other sources. Yesterday was just the opposite. Not only did Zack Wheeler live up to everything I had pictured in my mind about him and more, but several other players looked a whole lot better than I anticipated. They just dominated Lake Elsinore and the Storm had some players whose names you might recognize such as Rico Noel and Jedd Gyorko. Wheeler, Valdez, Hembree, Dominguez and Joseph all looked like they belonged at a higher level while Brown Parker, Casilla and Jurica all at least held their own. It was a very exhilarating experience, to say the least!

    The only guys I might be tempted to write off for the future were Cavan and Wendell Fairley. Cavan because of his small size and Fairley because he still looks quite tentative out there. While you can't expect any player to get a hit every at bat, you do expect a player of Fairley's draft status who is repeating the level to be the aggressor in every at bat, the one who is taking the game to the pitcher rather than reacting to the pitcher. I just didn't see that from him yesterday.

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  8. Anon,

    I specifically watched Gary Brown's feet in the box because I knew that has been a criticism. The stance looks the same as in college but I didn't notice any "happy feet." The back foot stays planted. He does do a very slight toe tap with his front foot, about 3 inched forward closing up the stance and then back to straightaway as the pitch is released. What bothered me is there is not stride whatsoever. I just don't see how he is going to generate any significant power at his size without some kind of loading mechanism for his lower body. He might have a higher BA with this approach, but to get more power, I think he's going to have to have a leg kick like, say, Cody Ross, or at least some kind of stride with his front foot.

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  9. Just echoing the others here, but thanks for the first-hand report, DrB. I refuse to give in to the naysayers on Dominguez. He may be Rob Deer Part Deux, but that's better than what we got out of Arturo McDowell, Mike Grahovac, Sean McGowan, Adam Hyzdu, etc, etc.

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  10. Lyle,

    Dominguez may or may not hit at the MLB level, but he is much better all around athlete than Deer.

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