Friday, October 5, 2012

Giants NLDS Preview: The Keys to Victory

Postseason previews can take many forms, most of them quite useless.  5 or 7 games is a small sample size no matter how you cut it.  Anything can happen in a small sample size.  I know you are all familiar with the Cincinnati Reds and with how much trouble they have given the Giants over the last 2-3 years.  They have a solid, deep lineup and pitching that is at least as good as the Giants.  This will be a tough series to win.  I decided to cut out the blather here and cut to the chase of what I think are the keys to a Giants victory:

1.  Pitching, pitching and more pitching:  This series will almost certainly come down to who pitches better.  The Reds have a good offense and so do the Giants.  The Reds rely more on power while the Giants rely more on batting average, but they are both good.  The Giants starters have to keep every game close and give their offense a chance to win.  With the quality of the Reds pitching, the Giants cannot count on any big leads or blowout wins.

2.  Win both games at home:  Great American Ballpark has been a house of horrors for the Giants for several years now.  They just aren't built to win in a ballpark like that.  Winning 1 of 3 there is doable.  Winning 2 of 3 is daunting.  Cain and Bumgarner have to shut the Reds down in the first two games at home to put the Giants in a position to win.  Of course, if they lose the first two, it's all over.

3.  Use the LOOGYs:  The Reds are a RH leaning lineup, but 2 of their best hitters, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, hit LH.  Those LOOGYs will be essential for shutting down Votto and Bruce in the late innings.  That's part of the beauty of a bullpen by committee.  Bochy does not have to accept a bad matchup in the 9'th just because that is the closer's inning.  Yeah, maybe if you have Brian Wilson at his best, he's the best guy to face Votto, but anything less than that, give me Lopez, Mijares or Affeldt in that order.

4.  Play great defense:  I love it that Bochy is going with his best defensive team in Game 1.  One sometimes overlooked key to the Giants second half surge was their great defensive play.  A run saved is as good as a run scored!

5.  Get a lead:  The Giants do not want to get to the 9'th inning and have to come back against Aroldis Chapman.  Broxton in the 8'th inning is a guy you can sometimes score on and has been known to have meltdowns.  Chapman just has too much velocity and the Giants are not a particularly good fastball hitting team.

6.  Have fun:  The Giants should be, and are, the underdogs here.  They have already had a successful season.  There is no shame in losing to the Reds, but also nothing to lose by going for it.  No need to press or tighten up in this one.  Just go all out and have fun doing it.

Matt Cain gave all his teammates from the Perfecto custom watches with some kind of orange spinning dealio in the middle.  Great way to bring the team together for Game 1 which he will start.

George Kontos and Guillermo Mota both made the team as Bochy elected to go with 12 pitchers.  The way Bochy likes to use pitchers that was the right move.  Add in the extra starter and he has a bullpen 8 pitchers deep, maybe 9 in a pinch.  Love what Kontos has done for this team, especially in LA to help clinch it.  Glad he made it.

Bench is Aubrey Huff, Xavier Nady, Ryan Theriot, Hector Sanchez and Joaquin Arias.  I like that bench.  I think it's a real strength of the team.

Around the league:  Orioles shocked the Rangers to complete the Rangers' end of season collapse.  Cardinals eliminated the Braves.  I didn't see it, but it sounds like the umps made a huge gaffe in the NLWC playoff causing a near-riot in Atlanta.  Seems the LF line up called in IF fly rule on a blooper to left that dropped in.  Never heard of such a thing before.  Glad those tomahawk chopping Braves fans are going home, but it sounds like they have something legit to be angry about.

Go Giants!  Beat LA!.....oh wait!  They already did that!

What are your keys to a Giants victory in the 2012 NLDS?

11 comments:

  1. Doc, watch the Infield Fly play before you make a call on it. It was a unique play. I've never seen the IF called like that.

    But, I do think it was within both the spirit and the letter of the rule. The key phrasing is "ordinary effort." Initially Kozma (St.L SS) was really moving to get out to shallow left field to catch the ball. But ultimately he had time to slow up, turn and square up the infield and wave off the left fielder. At that point, when it was a certainty that the SS could and would (have) easily caught the ball, the umpire made the IF call. The ball was coming down, maybe 25 feet in the air.

    Exceptionally late call for infield fly. But the umpire waited until he determined that the SS could easily make the play.

    For whatever reason, Kozma heard footsteps. But, there were no footseps as Holliday (who also could have caught the ball) had backed off. Kozma gave way, ball drops. It's unfortunate that happened.

    But it was a good call, IMO.

    Anyway, it was the 3 errors, included a key one by Chipper, that sunk the Braves.

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    1. i have never seen the rule upheld 50 feet beyond the if....never

      nor have i seen it called so late into the play

      maybe someone here can find a vid of a comparable call

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    2. Agree that the errors by Chipper and Uggly were what sunk the Braves. I'll take a look at the vid. Most likely was not a factor in the outcome of the game anyway.

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    3. OK, after reviewing the video of the play and hearing an explanation of the IF fly rule, I'll say it was a bad call.

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  2. prob that i have is that there is no speed off the bench and if huff is used and gets on, you have to waste another player, cuz he cant run at all...funny during reg season, but deadly in the post...03 is all i have to say

    they better darn well deal with the ump and instant replay situations in the winter meetings.

    feel bad for chipper...not the racist atl fans

    a's really took all the fight out of the rangers. ahd while wash is a good manager, he cannot manage a pen to save his life.

    this has been a fun year. its all gravy now

    good thing about the team, there are enough on it who were there in 10, so that should allow everyone to play relaxed

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    1. Theriot can run a little and he's on the bench. Arias is not a basestealer but can take an extra base and score from 2B on a single. Blanco could have been on the bench and might be for a game or two, but Bochy apparently wants his speed, defense and lefthandedness up front. I think it's a balanced bench. A little speed and little power. 3 RH batters 1 LH batter and a switch-hitter.

      It'd be nice to have 27 man rosters so they could use Pegs as a pinch runner and Whiteside as an additional backup catcher which would in turn increase Bochy's flexibility with The Hector.

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  3. Key to victory: play the way you're talking about, Doc.

    The lads just need to relax. Reds are favored. The Giants overcame more than a little adversity to get to this point. Enjoy having gotten this far. Get into the that flow state and let the talents surface.

    (I've got a Zen sort of outlook to these playoffs...the yin and the yang, relaxed focus, intense calm, etc.)

    I wonder, will Aubrey play a role in all of this?

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  4. Here's another key: The bottom of the lineup. Get a run each game out of Belt, Blanco and Crawford and that could be a huge difference maker in the lineup.

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  5. You never know who is going to whiff in the playoffs and who will shine. Pat the Bat and Cowboy Cody Ross. I would say a key, especially because they are so young, is the Brandons defense. They may get overwhelmed by frontline pitching, but they need to keep their defensive focus. Pablo has looked better in the past couple weeks to me. Pagan and Scutaro continuing their incredible play, both of them have their moments defensively where they space out. Hope that Scutaro solves his ball in glove problems, and I feel terrible even mentioning it because he has more than made up for it with his bat. I think Pagan or Pence have the most Cody Ross potential, because teams will not be giving Wonderboy much to hit. Pablo is another X factor, we will just have to see.

    Bochy goes with pitching first, so no speedster to sub in for a Nady/Huff or even Hector pinch hit. Arias is most likely that guy, but a good point about The Riot. I think you were being tongue in cheek about that 27 man roster, hard choices make it interesting, and if you have a designated pinch runner or backup catcher then those hard choices are dodged.

    I think Huff has one great pinch hit left in him.

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  6. Interesting, just checked Schulman's twitter. Manny B and Christian were given immediate go-home orders... Peguero is not on the Giants' roster, but he will travel with the team and be ready in case someone gets hurt. The pitchers still working out? Machi, Hensley. And of course Ol Crash Whiteside.

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    1. I saw that on Pavlovics blog as well. I knew the media was missing it touting Burriss and Christian as PR, clearly Peguero was the PR of preference, again showing how Bochy values performance, not veteran necessarily as the Naysayers say.

      I was surprised by Machi, found that interesting, again vet Penny, and Bochy buddy, sent home, Bochy wants performance.

      Not surprised by Hensley, he actually pitched very well for us until he injured himself and then tried to pitch with it, suffering his bad stretch, his ERA was in the twos before that.

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