Monday, May 2, 2011

Down on the Farm: 5/2//2011

AAA Fresno Grizzlies shut out the Colorado Springs Sky Sox 6-0:

Brock Bond(2B)- 3 for 5. BA= .246
Brandon Belt(LF)- 4 for 5, 2B, SB(3). BA= .517.
Andrew Kown(RHP)- 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K's, GO/AO- 10/5. ERA= 3.86.

I think we know Belt can handle all levels of the minors. As bad as the Giants offense is going, I don't see what they have to lose by calling him up as soon as they can and let give him another chance. At some point, if they believe he is a true prospect, they will have to just let him play long enough to see if he can make the adjustment at the MLB level. Right now, it does not seem that they have much to lose. Nice pitching by MILB veteran Kown at high altitude against a pretty good Skysox lineup.

AA Richmond Flying Squirrels topped the New Britain Rock Cats 6-2:

Jason Christian(LF)- 3 for 4, BB. BA= .287.
Juan Perez(CF)- 3 for 4, 2B, SB(2). BA= .244.
Eric Surkamp(LHP)- 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 10 K's. ERA= 2.05.

Another very impressive performance by Surkamp who now has 41 K's against 12 BB's in 26.1 IP. Ideally you would like to see him get the walk rate down but the K rate more than makes up for it. He is a pretty extreme flyball pitchers with a GO/AO= .84.

A+ Visalia Rawhide edged the San Jose Giants 5-4:

Gary Brown(CF)- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .337.
Jarrett Parker(RF)- 3 for 4, 2B, BB. .240/.374/.400.
Luke Anders(1B)- 2 for 3, HR(4), BB. BA= .313.
Chris Heston(RHP)- 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 3.18.

Parker is hitting .314/.429/.600 over his last 10 games. Anders has always put up strong numbers. He doesn't seem to get any respect in the organization and has moved up the ladder at a snail's pace.

Low A Augusta Greenjackets vs Lexington Legends was suspended after 2 innings with Lexington leading 4-0.

9 comments:

  1. would it not make more sense to keep belt in fresno for the full month, so that if any moves need to be made, they will be on the table and ready for when he comes back?

    let him get the full month and return feeling like he can hit anything

    decker still has the guys running...and i still think it is good

    do you think that the org is gonna go slow with both surkamp and wheeler?

    cuz it seems both will be ready come 2013, when the org is sure to lose 1 or 2 from the current rotation

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  2. Bacci,

    What is Darren Ford's SB success rate in the majors so far? Do you really think the "run wild" approach is a skill that translates to the higher level? Study after study has shown that SB's contribute little to run production. Unless you can steal at a very high success rate, something like 75-80% or better, running is actually a net negative.

    Yeah, maybe the Giants need to give Huff, Ross and Torres, once he comes back, a chance to heat up and gel as a lineup, but if that isn't happening there will come a time when they need to decide if Belt is a true MLB impact player or not. If he is, they need to give him a half-season of AB's to prove it or disprove it.

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  3. Any possibility of Belt playing 3rd base?
    This is an honest question from an uninformed fan.
    I know it is not easy, but I am curious if he has done it before.

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  4. Belt throws left handed, and I don't think any lefties have played anything other than 1st or OF this century. It has to do with turning your body around every time you throw to first.

    Google left-handed catchers/ infielders and you can find some interesting historical tidbits.

    And Huff has played 3rd, but has a terrible reputation there.

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  5. I looked at Anders' stats and this is the first season that he really started hitting well. In 2009 and 2010, his stats were not that impressive, there was no reason to give him a promotion in-season based on those numbers. His hitting in San Jose have earned other players promotions before, but he's a bit older at 24 than others, plus I think AA and AAA are both full of 1B guys right now, aren't they?

    Actually, AA could use a good 1B, old prospect Koshansky isn't doing that well, considering how well he hit in the minors before for COL.

    From what I remember, the hitter usually had to continue his hot hitting into late May or later to get a promotion.

    However, it will be hard for him to keep this up, his BABIP is a very high .370, which even fleet-footed guys can't sustain, let alone 1B.

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  6. Also, to back up DrB, studies have shown that high rates of success are necessary to justify stealing, or if the leverage at that point of the game, say, winning run would then be at 2B, warrants it. The rate varies by situation, but generally 80% is preferred otherwise, as DrB notes, it is a net negative.

    I like the running because the only way they will learn how to run well on the bases is through being alert and active. BP studied factors that was statistically correlated to going deep in the playoffs, and while no offensive stat was found to be significantly correlated, they did find that having a lot of caught stealing to be a factor. The thought there is that a running team that generates a lot of CS is one that has a lot of speed, and thus the CS is a proxy for the team's speed and how 1) they run the bases better and 2) defend better, due to the better speed.

    I would also point out Bill James study of baserunning in his annual. Of course, the speedsters are the ones up top in terms of contributing positively, but players like Schierholtz and Ishikawa has actually contributed a lot on the basepaths the past two seasons by taking the extra base, and stuff like that, in addition to base stealing.

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  7. doc...hope you watched tonite's game...running works, when the next guy up has speed too

    ford batting behind burris.....worked

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  8. Bacci,

    Didn't see tonight's game. Had a late meeting. I believe in team speed. I also believe there is a role for SB's, but you have to do it prudently and pick your spots. As we have seen with Darren Ford, it doesn't matter how fast you are if everybody in the park knows you are going. You are not going to have a high success rate if you are running indiscriminately and a low success rate tranlates to a negative in run production. On the other hand, taking the extra base is relatively low risk and helps immensely.

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  9. OGC,

    That's interesting about the CS and success in the post-season. I would just caution that statistical correlation is not the same as cause and effect. Statistical anomalies do exist. Although there are lots of things in life that are true even if they do not make intuitive sense, if something doesn't pass the smell test, it should be regarded with caution

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