Sunday, May 29, 2011

Scouting the Draft: Ranking the Third Basemen

First a few general draft notes:

BA's latest Mock Draft has the Giants taking LHP Josh Osich of Oregon State at #29. Osich probably has the highest ceiling of any college pitcher likely to be available that low in the first round. He is fairly polished with an advanced changeup and a decent breaking ball to go with a FB that ranges from 92-97 MPH. As a college pitcher, he would likely be ready for the majors much more quickly than any of the HS arms available at that slot. The Giants don't have an immediate need for a starting pitcher at the MLB level and are unlikely to next year either. Osich could be ready as early as midseason next year as an insurance plan though.

It looks like two potential first rounders might be off the board entirely:

HS OF Josh Bell has reportedly sent a letter to the MLB Scouting Bureau saying he intends to honor his commitment to University of Texas rather than sign a professional contract. His advisor is Scott Boras, so who knows what machinations this may be the surface of, but Bell is much like Austin Wilson last year in that he comes from a highly educated family who may value a college education more highly than the average family. If he really sent such a letter, I would think MLB teams would have to take him seriously which means he will probably end up getting drafted after the 10'th round by a team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Cardinals who might be willing to offer first round money or more to someone drafted that low.

RHP John Stilson, Texas A&M, has been consistently ranked as a late first round pick. He has a torn labrum, often a devastating injury to pitchers. This certainly bumps him out of the first round and possibly out of the draft entirely. Some team may take a late round flyer on him and be willing to wait for a long recovery and uncertain long term future.

Third base is a relative need in the Giants organization, although Pablo's commitment to conditioning has made it less so. Conor Gillaspie, Chris Dominguez and Adam Duvall are all interesting 3B prospects, but all have flaws. There is certainly room in the organization for a first round talent at 3B. Here's BA's breakdown of this year's 3B draft prospects with some of my own comments:

First Round:

1. Anthony Rendon, Rice- could be taken #1 overall. Has injury issues so I'm not sure I would want to spend my #1 overall and the accompanying bonus $$$ on him, but he won't fall to #29.

2. Cory Spangenburg, JC- Not a classic 3B prospect. He's more of a line drive hitter with excellent speed. Could move to CF! Think Conor Gillaspie with speed. I think the Giants have better uses for the #29 pick.

Supplemental Round:

3. Matt Dean, HS- HS shortstop with plus power. Will move to 3B as a pro. Committed to Texas. I haven't heard him linked to the Giants by anybody. Doubt he will be their supplemental round pick.

Second Round:

4. BA Volmuth, Southern Mississippi- Big college shortstop with a power bat who will likely move to 3B in the pros or even corner OF/1B. I really like Vollmuth a lot and would not be at all unhappy if the Giants took in in the second round.

5. Jason Esposito, Vanderbilt- I'm surprised BA has him ranked below Vollmuth. I would probably rank him as a supplemental round talent. Some mocks have him going near the end of round 1. Good fielding 3B with power and speed. Some scouts wonder if the bat will project. I would be happy if the Giants took him either in the supplemental round or in round 2. He would be a reach at #29.

6. Travis Harrison, HS- Harrison is a power hitting prospect who will go as far as his bat takes him. Plays 3B in HS, but may not be able to stick there which is the main reason why he is not considered a first round talent. I could see his case as being similar to Tommy Joseph, so John Barr might like him in the supplemental round or round 2.

7. Tyler Goeddel, HS- Local kid from Mountain View, CA. I don't know much about him, but BA seems to think he has multiple tools that project well.

Third/Fourth Rounds:

8. Taylor Sparks, HS- Klima has a video on baseballbeginnings.com and seems to really like his swing. Projectable looking frame.

9. Cody Asche, Nebraska- .327/.424/.639 with 12 HR's. Those is mighty impressive numbers what with the new college bats. The bat is lefthanded.

10. Steven Proscia, Virginia- .335/.378/.489, 6 HR', 11 SB, 5 CS. I've been eyeing Proscia since last year when he seemed to always have a better batting line game to game than Jarrett Parker. I like the bat in the 4'th round.

Fifth/Sixth Rounds:

11. Garrett Buechele, Oklahoma- .322/.381/.469, 8 HR's. Son of former major leaguer Steve Buechele. Projects to be a similar player which would be kind of an average MLB player which would be an excellent return on a 5'th or 6'th round pick.

12. Matt Skole, Georgia Tech- .348/.442/.538, 9 HR. A big kid at 6'4", 223. Hit 17 and 20 HR's his first two years at Georgia Tech so the new bats sapped his power a bit. Still showed excellent plate discipline and hit for average. Love what I see in the bat. Maybe he is ranked this low because he profiles as more of a first baseman?

13. Harold Martinez, Miami- .308/.390/.399, 3 HR's. A down year has hurt his stock. Had some sort of injury at the end of 2010 and had surgery. Had 21 HR's in sophomore season. How much of the decline is due to injury or luck and how much is due to the new bats? I'm thinking he may stay in school to try and rebuild his stock.

14. Kyle Kubitza, Texas State- .314/.450/.555, 9 HR's, 15 SB's, 3 CS. Lanky LH batter with great plate discipline and some power. Could fill out his frame for more power. I might like him more than the 3 guys listed above him here. May not be a pro third baseman?

2 comments:

  1. DrB, I might be a little nervous if the Giants take Osich with their 1st pick because he missed 2010 recovering from elbow surgery. But I like that he is polished and could advance quickly. The Giants didn't have a good young 3rd baseman to call up when Pablo got hurt. 3rd base is an obvious need also. I agree that Esposito would be a good supplemental pick

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  2. I'd be interested in seeing a statistical analysis of injury risk for pitchers pre and post TJ surgery. The eyeball test is if they are fully recovered and pitching well, the risk is no higher than the average non-TJ pitcher. In some ways it feels reassuring that they've gotten it behind them.

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