For the second start in a row, Madison Bumgarner faced a really good pitcher at the top of his game. He wasn't quite the gamer today that he was 5 games ago against Anibel Sanchez, but a loss is a loss. You don't want to have to write off too many games as unwinnable, but since the last one, the Giants only swept the Dodgers and took a game from the Rockies in Coors field. Hey, I'll take 4 out of 5 any time. Besides, I've always had this belief that if a winning streak gets too long, the letdown is more severe. I'd rather win 16 out of 20 than 16 in a row. I know that probably doesn't make mathematical sense, but that's just me. Key lines:
Fred Sanchez- 2 for 4. BA= .267.
Aubrey Huff- 2 for 4. BA= .312.
Buster Posey- 1 for 3, 2B. BA= .355.
Madison Bumgarner- 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.20.
Ubaldo Jimenez- 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K's. ERA= 2.61
Hard to believe, but the "Fire Bochy" crowd was out if force on one of the other Giants oriented sites after this game because he allegedly gave up on the game by pulling Posey and Burrell early. Really? They really want Buster Posey out there in a lost cause day game going into a 4 game series in Atlanta? That's just smart managing and living to fight another day, in my book. There was no way in hell that Giants were beating the Rockies with Ubaldo on the mound today. End of story!
With the loss, the Giants failed to gain ground on the NL West leading San Diego Padres who got smacked down by the Dodgers 9-0 behind the hated Vicente Padilla, so the Giants remain 1 game behind. The Rockies gain a game to 6.5 games behind in 3'rd place while the Dodgers also gain a game on the two leaders to 7 games behind. Arizona is trailing the Nats late, so will likely remain 23 games off the pace. St Louis and Philly both won to move to 2 and 2.5 games behind the Giants who still lead the Wild Card race.
The Giants now move on to the ATL sauna for a 4 games series vs the Braves. Tim Lincecum takes the mound against Jair Jurrjens. #1 vs #1. Tim will need to bring his best stuff for this one.
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"There was no way in hell that Giants were beating the Rockies with Ubaldo on the mound today. End of story!'
ReplyDeleteyou know, basically your analysis often comes down to whomever the better pitcher is and then you conclude everything on that. It is a mentality like the one above that is why you and people who think like that (a loser mentality), can never understand or appreciate the kind of winner each of these athletes are.
weak.
As OGC has pointed out many times in his much more extensive analysis, who the pitchers are is very often the determining factor in the outcome of the game. On the other hand, the Giants have done well against some very good pitchers this season when, perhaps, they weren't at the top of their game, or maybe when the Giants pitcher is at the top of his.
ReplyDeleteMy point is, there does come a point in certain games where a lead has a very high probability of standing up. For example, once Matt Cain got that 2-0 lead on the Dodgers the other night, I had a high level of confidence he was going to make it stand up. That's just what kind of a pitcher he is, both in quality of stuff and mentality. Likewise, there was a point in the final Marlins game with Anibal Sanchez on the mound and yesterday with Jimenez, fairly early in the game, where the chances of the Giants got to be so low, it was appropriate for Bochy to either pull some players or keep certain ones in reserve to fight another day when the chances of winning would be greater. If Madbum was lights out and the score was 0-0 or 0-1 in the 6'th inning, that's a whole different story, but yesterday when it got to 4-0 against Ubaldo, you should have known it was over. It sounds great to say never give up or never say die and all that, but sometimes that is just not smart baseball. A 162 game schedule is a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes you have to make a quick stop at the water station. No team goes 162-0!
You might want to take a look at some of the win probability charts over on fangraphs.com to better visualize it.
Doc, anyone who throws grenades from the "Anonymous" sig should simply be ignored. I post here under my regular sig so that everyone knows where my POV is coming from. If I disagree, I put my online rep on the line.
ReplyDeleteI am a big Boch hater, but it was an obvious move to rest Posey in that situation. Your analysis is pretty spot-on.