Spring Training Update: NL West Preview

I don't really like making predictions about the future. First of all, I'm terrible at it. Secondly, none of it matters anyway. They still have to play the games. I do have some thoughts on the upcoming season both for the Giants and around the division and the league. At the end, I will give my obligatory predictions. Rosters are based on recent projections in rotoworld.com. We'll go in alphabetical order by city:

Arizona Diamondbacks:

Lineup

LF Conor Jackson
SS Stephen Drew
RF Justin Upton
1B Adam LaRoche
3B Mark Reynolds
C Miguel Montero
CF Chris Young
2B Kelly Johnson

Bench

Gerardo Parra, Chris Snyder, Ryan Roberts, Tony Abreu, Augie Ojeda.

Rotation

Dan Haren
Edwin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Rodrigo Lopez
Billy Buckner
Brandon Webb- DL

Bullpen

Chad Qualls(closer), Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry, Aaron Heilman, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada, Blaine Boyer.

Summary: The lineup is as good as any in the division. Upton and Drew are poised for breakouts. There is no reason why Conor Jackson won't be back to 2008 form or better. Montero is a rising star and could be the best hitting catcher in the division. The D'Backs should score runs in bunches. With a healthy Brandon Webb, the rotation would be great at the top, but a bit thin. Without him, it's Dan Haren and a bunch of guys that have more upside than Jon Garland and Doug Davis which isn't saying much. Really not a good rotation. Chad Qualls is a decent closer, but what else do they have in the bullpen? The success or failure of the D'Backs season will likely depend on the health of Brandon Webb's right shoulder which is a mighty thin reed to lean on.

Colorado Rockies:

Lineup

LF Carlos Gonzalez
CF Dexter Fowler
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
RF Brad Hawpe
C Chris Iannetta
3B Ian Stewart
2B Clint Barmes

Bench

Seth Smith, Miguel Olivo, Ryan Spilborghs, Jason Giambi, Melvin Mora

Rotation

Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Greg Smith
Jeff Francis(DL)

Bullpen

Franklin Morales(closer), Rafael Betancourt, Manny Corpas, Matt Daley, Matt Belisle, Randy Flores, Esmail Rogers, Huston Street(DL), Joe Beimel(extended ST).

Summary: It's a good lineup, but you have to factor in park effects. I would still rate it a tad behind Arizona's and LA's, but it's good and will score a ton of runs. It has speed at the top and power in the middle that extends down to Stewart in the #7 hole. Two reserve OF's, Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs could start for many teams, almost certainly for the Giants. The rotation features a near ace in Ubaldo Jimenez who is perfectly suited to pitch in Coors Field with his power arsenal. The rest of the rotation is very questionable with De La Rosa having the tools for a breakout season. I'd rank the rotation ahead of Arizona's without Webb though. The Bullpen took a hit with Street's injury which sounds like it could be pretty serious, no structural damage on MRI, but the shoulder pain won't go away. Morales certainly has the stuff to be the closer, but it forces everyone else to move up in their roles.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Lineup

SS Rafael Furcal
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
LF Manny Ramirez
1B James Loney
3B Casey Blake
C Russell Martin
2B Blake DeWitt

Bench

Reed Johnson, Jamey Carroll, Ronnie Belliard, Brad Ausmus, Garrett Anderson.

Rotation

Vicente Padilla(that's right, Padilla is the opening day starter!)
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Charlie Haeger

Bullpen

Jonathan Broxton(closer), George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Ramon Ortiz, Russ Ortiz, Carlos Monasterios, Jeff Weaver. Kuo(DL), Belisario(DL), Wade(DL).

Summary: Probably still the best lineup in the NL West, although not by much over Arizona and Colorado. The pitching has taken a step back. Kershaw can be an ace, but is still very young and harnessing his stuff. Billz could be a solid #2 or even #1 but has been a bit of an enigma so far. Padilla is a journeyman. If he can maintain last year's end-of-year performance, the more power to the Dodgers, but that is highly unlikely. Kuroda will almost certainly spend time on the DL and Haeger is unlikely to be the #5 starter by the end of the season. Broxton is a world class closer, but the bullpen is very ordinary behind him.

San Diego Padres:

Lineup

CF Tony Gwynn Jr.
2B David Eckstein
RF Will Venable
1B Adrian Gonzalez
LF Kyle Blanks
3B Chase Headley
C Nick Hundley
SS Everth Cabrera

Bench

Scott Hairston, Jerry Hairston Jr., Yorvit Torrealba, Oscar Salazar, Matt Stairs

Rotation

Jon Garland
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos

Bullpen

Heath Bell(closer), Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, Tim Stauffer, Sean Gallagher, ?????, Adam Russell being sent to Portland?

Summary: The Padres are rebuilding. Gonzalez is a hugely productive hitter surrounded by a bunch of guys trying to get established. Venable could break out. Blanks is literally a monster. Can he put up montrous numbers? The rotation is not terrible, especially with Petco as the home park. Latos is a future #1 or #2. Bell is as good as any closer in baseball and there are some good arms to back him up. The huge question is whether the Pads will trade AGone and Bell during the season. With those two on the team, the Pads will give fans of other teams a lot of heartburn. If they are traded, the Pads will likely be a 100 loss team.

San Francisco Giants:

Lineup

CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
LF Mark DeRosa
C Bengie Molina
2B Juan Uribe
RF Nate Schierholtz

Bench

John Bowker, Andres Torres, Eugenio Velez, Eli Whiteside, Travis Ishikawa

Rotation

Tim Lincecum
Barry Zito
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Todd Wellemeyer

Bullpen

Brian Wilson(closer), Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Brandon Medders, Dan Runzler, Waldis Joaquin, Guillermo Mota(likely).

DL Freddy Sanchez

Summary: The Giants have the worst lineup in the division, by far. The question is whether it is enough less bad than last year to support the pitching into the playoffs. Sandoval could be a superstar, but has to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Schierholtz could emerge as a solid hitter, but might not even keep his job all season, heck, he might not even be the starting RF on opening day! If every hitter in the lineup has at least a career average year, it just might be good enough. That's a fairly long bet though. The pitching staff is the best in the division if not in all of baseball. We all know about LIncecum and Cain, but Sanchez is poised to be every bit as good if he can just stay within himself and keep the walks down. Zito is an innings eater. He needs to at least equal last year's performance and Wellemeyer has to be a steady #5 but it's a very nice rotation. Wilson is an established closer now with Affeldt a solid setup man. Runzler and Joaquin both have shutdown stuff. It's the best bullpen in the division too.

Predictions

1. San Francisco Giants!
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

This is an underrated division and the top 4 teams are really very close. They say pitching is 70% of the game. If that is true, the Giants have by far the best pitching in the division, and will overcome a bad hitting lineup that will be marginally improved from last year. Every team except the Padres has a legitimate case to be #1, but each team needs a lot of things to break right to win.