Thursday, April 22, 2010

Draft Update

BA has released an updated version of their Top 50 2010 Draft Ranking. The Giants are drafting #24 in the first round. Their second pick will be #76 overall, so that is well past the top 50. One thing I like to do leading up to the draft is look at the 5-10 players around the pick where the Giants will be drafting to get a feel for what kinds of players might be available. Let's take a look at BA's list:

20. Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech.
21. Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina
22. Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State
23. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel.
24. Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State
25. Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
26. Brett Eibner, RHP/OF, Arkansas
27. Stetson Allie, RHP, High School
28. Kyle Parker, OF, Clemson
29. Micah Gibbs, C, LSU
30. Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami
31. LeVon Washington, OF, Chipola, JC
32. Chevez Clarke, OF, HS
33. James Paxton, LHP, Indy
34. Barrett Loux, RHP, Texas A&M
35. Peter Tago, RHP, HS

I'm guessing the Giants take a pitcher at #24. Several college guys to choose from and a couple of intriguing HS arms. I think you could put all the pitching names into a hat and not do bad with the luck of the draw. The Giants have a good track record drafting pitchers so I would trust their scouts on this one. I really like what I've read and seen of Peter Tago, though.

Brentz would be an interesting choice. His numbers this year pale in comparison to last year and his level of competition is questionable. Chevy Clarke would be the classic high ceiling CF type. I guess out of these names he would be my first choice for a position player. Yasmani Grandal is a great defensive catcher who is having a great offensive season for Miami. If you go by Best Player Available, he might be the guy. It's a position of scarcity and could always set up future trade scenarios.

PnR Scouting has an updated Top 100. Some of the names are the same:

22. Stetson Allie
23. Alex Wimmers
24. Yasmani Grandal
25. James Paxton
26. Justin O'Conner, C/SS/RHP, HS
27. DeAndre Smelter, RHP, HS
28. Michael Choice, OF, Texas-Arlington
29. Asher Wojciechowski
30. Micah Gibbs
31. Barrett Loux
32. Brett Eibner
33. Yordy Cabrera, SS, HS
34. LeVon Washington
35. Brian Ragira, OF, HS

The fact that O'Conner can't seem to settle on a position bothers me, but some teams, like the Giants, may see that as flexibility. Smelter has a power sinker with some emerging secondary stuff. Michael Choice might be the best power hitting college player in the draft, but he is strictly a corner OF who lacks great speed which limits his value. I really like what I've seen of Ragira, whose wristy swing reminds me most of none other than Hank Aaron. I read one report that likened it to Willie Mays' swing!

Looking to round 2, the Giants have pick #76 overall. Looking at players listed in this vicinity on PnR Scouting:

73. Austin Wates, OF, VA Tech.
74. Seth Blair, RHP, ASU.
75. Chris Hernandez, RHP, Miami.
76. Ty Linton, OF, HS
77. Robert Segedin, 3B/RHP Tulane(draft eligible Sophomore).
78. Jesse Biddle, LHP, HS
79. Taijuan Walker, RHP, HS.
80. Sammy Solis, LHP, San Diego(Draft eligible Sophomore).

I would love to see Taijuan Walker go to the Giants here. He's raw, but the tools are as good as any pitcher in the draft. Wates is an athletic OF who probably could play CF, but has played corners in College. Power is a question, but has raked this season.

Third round is #105 PnR Scouting list from this area:

102. Leon Landry, OF, LSU
103. Jarrett Parker, OF, Virginia
104. Austin Southall, OF/1B, HS.
105. Michael Kvasnicka, C/OF, Minnesota.
106. Andy Wilkins, 1B/3B, Arkansas
107. Daniel Tillman, RHP, Florida Southern College
108. Luke Jackson, RHP, HS.
109. Gary Brown, OF, CS Fullerton
110. Drew Smyly, LHP, Arkansas(draft eligible sophomore).

Several interesting names here. Landry would be a very nice pickup in round 3. I would favor him over Parker or Brown. Parker's stock has slipped a lot. He's the type of player the Giants have gone for in recent drafts.

Round 4 is pick #138:

135. Gauntlett Eldemire, OF, Ohio!
136. Phil Cerrato, 1B, Longwood U
137. Russell Wilson, RHP/2B, NC State
138. Andrew Clark, 1B, Louisville
139. Kevin Rhoderick, RHP, Oregon State
140. Devin Lohman, SS/2B, Long Beach State
141. Devin Rivera, RHP, JC
142. Shane Rowland, C, HS
143. Garin Cecchini, SS, HS
144. Dixon Anderson, RHP, Cal
145. John Simms, RHP, HS
146. John Barbato, RHP, HS
147. Greg Peavy, RHP, Oregon State.

I absolutely love Gauntlett Eldemire. He would be a steal in round 4. I really like Peavy for this pick also. The names in between are not as recognizable.

Round 5 is pick #168. Some names in this vicinity that I recognize:

164. Victor Sanchez, 3B, San Diego
167. Josh Spence, LHP, ASU(Senior).
173. Michael Olt, 3B, Connecticut

Round 6 is pick #198:

199. Cole Green, RHP, Texas

Green has had an excellent season to raise his stock. He doesn't have a projectable body but has MLB quality stuff.

Summary:

This is a good year to be drafting in the latter third of the round. The draft is weak at the top, but there are players likely to be available late in the third round who compare favorably with the top 10 of the first round. For instance, I would be just as happy with Leon Landry as I would Christian Colon, who I don't really believe in that much. What do you think?

6 comments:

  1. Dr B - you da man....how the heck do you know all this stuff....i've never seen anyone know as much about the up and coming players.....

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  2. This is exactly the way I like to look at how the draft might fall out for the Giants too. Thanks for putting this information up plus your opinions. I will have to check back here on draft day!

    I know that you know this, but I think it should be also noted for those not aware that performances in spring will move people around greatly, for example BA had Evan Longoria rated 10th in their early ranking but his stock rose greatly with his performance that spring and he was picked much earlier (3rd pick overall) by the Rays.

    But we came out OK, we ended up with Lincecum. :^)

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  3. I, too, like to look at the draft possibilities this way. Thanks for your comments, DrB - I'll be making a note, and check back here the day after the draft.

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  4. Thanks everybody! Glad you are reading.

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  5. Yes, I too see the Giants taking a pitcher, and this year seems especially deep in both college and HS arms. Given the Giants talent at evaluating arms I would not be surprised if they land a very good arm, one whose talent might merit a selection in the upper third of Round 1 in a less pitching heavy class. These rankings suggest the Giants may have several shots at toolsy outfielders in rounds 2-4. If they can actually draft one, two, or three of these guys Dr. B will be on the stairs again, but this time it'll be the stairway up to heaven!

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