Thursday, April 1, 2010

Fantasy Impact: Meet the Savvy Vets 2010

My fantasy league had its draft last night. I gave you the league parameters in yesterday's post as well as my 6 keepers from last year. With 26 man rosters, that meant each team drafted 20 players. Here's how it went for defending champion Savvy Vets by round:

1. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit: First pitcher taken in the draft(remember each team already had 3 pitching keepers, so the Tim Lincecums and Felix Hernandez's of the world were not available to draft). This one came as a shock to the rest of the league, and maybe I blew it. I just felt that there was more distance between Verlander and the pack of SP's than between the best available hitter and the pack of hitters. Pitching is half the categories in a 5X5 league.

2. Ben Zobrist, SS, 2B, IF, OF, Tampa Bay: Zobrist could regress this year, but his minor league record and peripheral numbers would suggest he is for real. If he is, he gives you elite production in the middle infield plus almost unlimited flexibility.

3. BJ Upton, OF, Tampa Bay: Has broken the hearts of fantasy owners two years running. Now 18 months removed from shoulder surgery, Upton has demonstrated breathtaking power potential when healthy. Last year was probably his floor and he at least got 43 steals.

4. Jose Valverde, RP, Detroit: This is a gross overdraft, but my buddy, who had the #1 overall pick, had taken two closers at the last turn of the snake draft and started a run. I had to decide to either get in or punt the category. I got in.

5. Frank Francisco, RP, Texas: Same explanation as for Valverde. Closers were still going fast.

6. Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota: Disappointing the last 2 seasons after TJ surgery, reports have Liriano's fastball popping again and he's been looking like his old self in winter ball and spring training. WIth all the closers being drafted, position players were going slowly and I felt I could wait on them and gamble a pick an a pitcher with huge upside.

7. Hunter Pence, OF, Houston: Back to offense. Pence hasn't gotten a lot of attention, but has been a solid producer in 5 categories for 2 years now. At a stage in his career where a step forward would not be unexpected.

8. Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona: With 5 SP's and 2 RP's, this is where I start to work my way through positions in order of position scarcity and take the best player available at each position. The choice here was Stephen Drew or Jason Bartlett. I think Bartlett is due for a regression and Drew for a breakout. Hope I'm right.

9. Jorge Cantu, 3B, 1B, IF, Florida: Best available 3B plus flexibility.

10. Jason Frasor, RP, Toronto: Pretty much the last legitimate closer available, and you need at least 3 to be competitive in Saves. Kevin Gregg is lurking, but Frasor should hold the position. Some talk of a trade to Minnesota where he would also be the closer.

11. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida: Here's where I fill out my pitching. I like to use all of my bench spots on SP's and then rotate them in and out of the rotation since we can reset lineups daily. It's like having a 9 man rotation! Nolasco dropped here,likely because of a scary looking ERA, but that's because he was terrible early last year. Once he came back from working it out in the minors, he was very solid. His peripheral numbers suggest he can easily get back to 2008 form.

12. Ben Sheets, SP, Oakland: Sheets' is coming off surgery. His first two spring outings were scary terrible, but he's been lights out lately. An ace if fully healthy.

13. Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco: I've been saying he's poised for a huge breakout. Might as well put my money where my mouth is.

14. Brad Penny, SP, St. Louis: I'm mad at him for running off to St. Louis, but he should do well there with great run support and Dave Duncan as the pitching coach, assuming he and Duncan get along. He's never been the great strikeout pitcher he seems like he should be, but if he's healthy and back to form, a huge steal at this point in the draft.

15. Drew Stubbs, OF, UT, Cincinnati: I'll use him in one of my utility spots. A 5 tool player who should easily get 20 HR's and 20 steals. The only question is whether his BA will be enough not to hurt.

16. Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis: Former BA top 10 prospect. I thought about a speed guy here, like Juan Pierre, but decided to go for the power upside. I'll monitor him closely and be ready to switch him out for a more reliable vet or else a speed guy if he struggles.

17. Todd Helton, 1B, IF, Colorado: I was thinking about Troy Glaus for this position, but I felt I needed to boost my BA and Helton is more of a sure thing. Besides, you need at least one Colorado hitter on your team, right? Helton will fill my IF slot as Prince Fielder is my first baseman.

18. Mat Latos, SP, San Diego: Went for the upside this late in the draft.

19. Brandon League, RP, Seattle: By this time, all the closers were gone. My choice was to go for even more SP or take a couple of closers in waiting. Aardsma may have arrived and hold the Seattle closer's job forever, but he seems like as good a bet to lose it as any. At the least, League will get me a fair number of K's with scattered Wins and maybe even a few accidental Saves. He should help keep my ERA and WHIP down too.

20. Mike Adams, RP, San Diego: Another closer in waiting. The bet here is that the Pads will trade Heath Bell at some point.

So, that's the draft. Here is the complete Savvy Vets roster:

C Brian McCann
1B Prince Fielder
2B Ben Zobrist
SS Stephen Drew
3B Jorge Cantu
IF Todd Helton
OF Justin Upton
OF BJ Upton
OF Hunter Pence
UT Drew Stubbs
UT Colby Rasmus
SP CC Sabathia
SP Matt Cain
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Justin Verlander
SP Francisco Liriano
RP Jose Valverde
RP Frank Francisco
RP Jason Frasor
P Brandon League
P Mike Adams
BN Ricky Nolasco
BN Ben Sheets
BN Jonathan Sanchez
BN Brad Penny
BN Mat Latos

The strength of the team is SP, by far. I use my bench as an extension of my starting rotation. If an offensive player gets hurt, I just replace them from the waiver wire. I don't want offensive players sitting on my bench not contributing! I'm competitive in all 10 categories, but will need a couple of breakout years from offensive players and for things to break right in the bullpen to defend the championship.

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