Scouting the Draft: Second Round Options

OK, I'm bored.  Can't stand to watch the game anymore.  I'll try to write up a post about who the Giants might draft with the 51'st pick overall pick in the second round.  Predicting the first round is hard enough in the baseball draft.  Beyond that, it's like finding a needle in a haystack.  The best we can do is to look at some names that are ranked in that range to get an idea of the type/quality of player who might be available.  MCC had a recent post pointing out how difficult it is to find talent beyond the first round of the baseball draft, to the point where you have to wonder if there is any point to having a draft of more than 1 round at all!  If the MCC author is correct, and I don't have the time to dig it out myself, in the entire history of the MLB draft, there have been just 3 players drafted 51 to accumulate more the 3 WAR in their career(Yikes!  Is that right?).

One big problem with trying to project this is the large divergence between different analysts who know way more about this than me.  I'm just using MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs(I don't subscribe to BA).  Their lists are way different.  So here we go:

Given the general futility of finding an impact player beyond the first round, I feel like rounds 2-4 are great spots to swing for the fence and go for upside with almost no regard to risk.  I mean, if the success rate is 3 out of 51, there is no risk other than bonus money which nowadays is relatively negligible.  With that in mind, there are a couple of HS prospects who were ranked higher in this draft cycle whose stock has dropped.  Spencer Jones LHP/1B/OF? and Rene Hinds, 3B.  I've profiled both of them.  Jones is a left-handed 2-way prospect with a ton of projection who has not played much this season due to a fracture near his elbow.  Fangraphs says there are still teams out there dangling $2 M bonuses though.  BTW, Keith Law hates him.  LOL Keith Law!  Hinds is a big kid with some of the best raw power in the draft, but with serious questions about his hit tool.

The Giants have trouble attracting power hitters as free agents.  If Hinds is too much risk for your taste, what about a couple of college power hitters?

Drew Mendoza 3B, College(Florida State).  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 190 lbs.  .303/.478/.595, 14 HR, 24.90 BB%, 24.9 K%.  Ranked #55 by both MLB and Fangraphs, the only draft prospect they rank the same in this range.  Mendoza has been on scouting radars since HS.  A three true outcomes guy with a sweet swing.  Rap on him is a perceived lack of enthusiasm on the field.

Matt Wallner OF, College(Southern Mississippi).  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 220 lbs.  .315/.431/.665, 19 HR, 16.26 BB%, 17.48 K%.  Corner OF with an arm strong enough to pitch.  Makes more contact than Mendoza which may give him more access to his power.  Ranked #56 by Fangraphs, #60 by MLB.

Logan Wyatt, a power hitting 1B for Louisville might be a consideration here.  It sounds like he may have a significantly better bat then Mendoza or Wallner but is limited to 1B defensively.

Want to take a chance on a fast-twitch up-the-middle athlete?  MLB lists a couple of HS SS's at #50 and 51, Kyren Paris and Nasim Nunez.  Nunez is rated as the best defensive SS in the draft but is relatively small and the bat, while projectable, is a big question mark.  Paris may not stick at SS, but has elite speed and projects as an elite defensive CF.  Again, size is a concern with the bat. Oh, and it's possible neither will be on the board at #51 as Fangraphs has them ranked #33 and #31 respectively.

There are a couple of college pitchers who would make solid picks here:

Matt Canterino RHP, College(Rice).  6-5, 2.90, 93 IP, 21 BB, 112 K.  He's got nice size and put up similar numbers in the Cape Cod League.  #49 Fangraphs, #46 MLB.

Drey Jameson RHP, College(Ball St).  5-3, 3.05, 85.2 IP, 29 BB, 136 K's.  Average size.  Mid-90's FB with a couple of secondary pitches.  He's got some effort in the delivery and looks a bit relieverish.  # 49 MLB, #44 Fangraphs.

There is a Joe Panik clone lurking in this range.  He'd probably be the pick if John Barr was still in charge of draft(BTW, John Barr does still work for the Giants and was reportedly seen scouting Bryson Stott recently):

Josh Smith SS, College(LSU).  B-L, T-R.  .341/.431/.507, 7 HR, 15 SB, 9.68 BB%, 15.73 K%, 248 PA.  Maybe a tad more power and speed than Panik? #50 Fangraphs, #76 MLB.

There are several projectable HS pitchers in this range who could be possibilities:

Josh Wolf RHP, HS.  6'2", 175 lbs.  #36 MLB, #51 Fangraphs.  Has some helium with a FB in the mid-high 90's.  #36 might be closer to his true draft position, which could go even higher.

Blake Walston LHP, HS.  6'4", 175 lbs.  #52 MLB, #39 Fangraphs.  Projectable lefty.  Works 90-93 MPH in games but needs to add strength to keep it going later in games.

Bryce Osmond RHP, HS.  6/3", 175 lbs.  #53 MLB, #69 Fangraphs.  Projectable RHP who currently works in the low 90's.  Very athletic and also a legitimate SS prospect. Apparently not from THAT Osmond family, but who knows?  It's a big family!

Kendall Williams RHP, HS.  6'6", 190 lbs.  #54 MLB, # 84 Fangraphs.  More physical projection than others in this range, but average current stuff. Signability issues as he's committed to Vanderbilt.

The Giants will most likely select someone who is not mentioned in this post, but whoever it is should be an intriguing prospect.