The Giants got a combined 23 strikeouts in 11 shutout innings from their two starting pitchers and cruised to a doublheader sweep of the Rockies. Key Lines:
Game 1:
Patrick Bailey C- 1 for 4, 2B. BA= .273. Bailey's double in the 7'th drove in 2 runs after the Rockies tied the score at 1 in the top of the inning. Bailey leads all MLB catchers in fWAR by 0.8 with a 3.7.
Matt Chapman 3B- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(15). BA= .237. So will Chapman meet my prediction of 25 HR's and GG defense? He needs to hit 10 HR's over the final 2 months. Doable but he's behind he pace. Defensively he trails Ryan McMahon and Ke'Bryan Hayes in defensive fWAR by a wide margin. Overall he stands at #5 in fWAR for MLB 3B at 3.0.
Blake Snell LHP- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 15 K. ERA- 5.10. Snell adds his name to the Giants recent string of double digit K's. If the Giants are sellers his trade value just went way up.
Game 2:
Jorge Soler DH- 3 for 4, 2 2B. BA= .235. Soler is hitting the ball hard but as Kruk pointed out, with so much topspin the ball isn't getting enough height to clear the fence. He's hitting .381 over his last 7 games.
Mike Yastrzemski RF- 1 for 3, 3B, SF. BA= .249. YtY tripled in game 1 too. He has 8 on the season.
Tyler Fitzgerald SS- 1 for 4, HR(9). 10 game hit streak with 8 HR's in that span. Amazing!
Hayden Birdsong RHP- 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K's. ERA= 2.97. Birdsong again had electric stuff but threw a lot of pitches early and struggled to finish the 4'th. With the coaching on the field from Curt Casali, he made it through 5 IP without allowing a run after throwing 106 pitches. Very bright future for this young pitcher.
The double wins cut the Giants deficit in the Wild Card race to 4.5 games.
Jordan Hicks RHP makes what is planned to be his last start of the season today trying for the 4-game sweep facing Austin Gomber LHP.
Churn Watch:
Birdsong was the 27'th man on the active roster for the doubleheader and will likely head back to AAA Sacramento at least until his next turn in the rotation.
Spencer Bivens RHP was recalled from AAA Sacramento and Mike Baumann RHP was. DFA'd.
Trade deadline is Tuesday, July 30. Are the Giants buyers or sellers? If buyers, they need an OF who can hit. If sellers, they have multiple veterans whose contracts are ending or have player options for next season. Blake Snell might be the hot name who could bring back significant talent.
How does fWAR work Doc? After WAR became seven different versions of WAR, now I don't know which one means what..
ReplyDeleteIf you could break it down for a sec? Thank you!
They all work basically the same way which is to translate player performance into Win Shares or how much did a stat line contribute to a win or loss? They are cumulative or a counting stat over a season as opposed to an average. I tend to use Fangraphs WAR(fWAR) because it's easy to find and it's my understanding they use a more advanced, and presumably accurate, defensive metric than other WARs.
DeleteThe truth is and always has been that this rotation would have the potential to dominate once it was in place. With Hicks going to the pen and Cobb not too far out we could see that potential very soon. Problem is they are way too far out and we have seen plenty to know that this offense isn’t consistent enough to support the rotation week in and week out.
ReplyDeleteBut what if there was a player out there that could bring some consistency to the lineup and a boost kind of like what Burrell, Scutaro, and Pence did? Could one hot bat with several gloves fit in to the top of the lineup and provide the spark we need to be a 4-5 run team every night? I know there are a few guys that might help but one that I feel is more realistic than most is Luis Rengifo.
Instead of selling what if we keep our pitchers and improved pen with Hicks in it and trade for Rengifo to help in the OF and anywhere on the dirt? Push Soler out of the leadoff spot and lets see what he can do in the middle of the order now that his bat has come back to life. Its 2 months and 50 games or so that they need to win 40 of them. Soft schedule next month and then all out in September.
Rengifo
Ramos
Bailey
Chapman
Soler
Yaz
Fitz
Wisely
Wade
Webb
Snell
Ray
Cobb
Harrison/Birdsong
Doval
Walker
Hicks
Miller
Hjelle
Rogers
Rogers
It would be one of the most unlikely runs in recent history but if they could get hot right now to make it 2 games back by end of next week then odds quadruple. Melvin may need to switch to espresso before and during games so he can stay awake and keep this team focused but if you squint a little you can still see hope!
In the Giants next 22 games, 18 are against sub .500 teams and 4 with a struggling Atlanta team (4-9 last 13).
ReplyDeleteBut then the schedule gets tough, really tough: 32 games and only the 3 with Miami are non-contending teams.
The Giants could get back in it by their last game with the White Sox on Wednesday, Aug 21, but what then?
Can they continue to win on pitching with their lo-production offense?
Winston Churchill said in 1948 “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
Of course he wasn't talking about baseball, but why should would 3 or 4 runs a game win a majority of them?
Sell Snell and has Zaidi's Soler lead-off plan made him attractive?
Someone should want Chapman with his D & streaky O, Wade is one of the best Giants, even Conforto has his moments, just too few of them. There is some meat on the bone(s), if post season is unlikely, Baseball-Reference says 9%, ESPN & Fangraphs say 17%.
Is it FZ's decision or the Board? What does Buster think?
Posted this in the MInors round up by mistake..If i could delete it there i would.......
ReplyDeleteAll his own doing , but FZ nd the Giants are in a tough place between selling and selective buyer. By selective buyer, I mean an OF bat and one more Left hand reliever. Is that worth it, given the team? I don't know....Maybe if they keep ALL of their pitching and expect/hope most of the vets have a good 2nd half. Some are starting to come around. But it has to be against somebody other then Colorado!!
OTOH, they could just go Soft Cell. It may be tainted, but maybe they can try and get something for FLores, Conforto, Jackson, mybe somebody else and go with their vets and the rising kids ..But the return will be minimal..and the longer FZ waits to decide, potential trade partners fill tbheir needs elsewhere. Example, all the NY papers were abuzz with reported Met interest in CONFORTO. Well, they picked up WINKER instead this AM.
Another option is a hard sell which deals better and more controllable vets such as SNELL, YAZ, DOVAL, Taylor Rogers, ESTRADA (but hurt/down year), even one of the new FA bats..
Big decisions to be made!!!
SteveVA
Fixed.
DeleteDon't think your Tainted Love ref went unnoticed, Steve! XD
DeleteI think it's a good time to be a little passive and let the market come to the Giants. If there is an amazing offer for Snell or Chapman, definitely listen. If not, roll with what we have. See if the boys can go on a crazy roll. No need to force anything.
Same with buying. If someone is going to offer a good piece at a good price, listen. But don't move any serious prospects.
It's the one advantage low expectations have. No one is thinking the team, even with a couple of additions, really has a chance to go deep in the playoffs.
CBS Sports says Giants to go with a Starter Erik Miller rather than Hicks, MLB & Baseball Monster concur
ReplyDeleteRotowire says Hicks
Lineups says Robbie Ray
If feels like they are backed in to the exact same situation with Blake Snell as they were with Carlos Rodon. Selling the premium asset would be best long term for the franchise, but the slight possibility of contending means he should only be sold off for a very juicy prospect package. Farhan completely flubbed this last time, I wish I had a better feeling this time around.
ReplyDeleteToday's lineup does not bode well.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, do they ever scare anyone?
Maybe Derek Hill is the next Churn payoff?
DeleteVillar should know that what's keeping him from being a major leaguer is simple: 31 PAs 12 Ks ZERO walks
ReplyDeleteEver hear of small sample sizes?
Delete