Friday, June 1, 2018

Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review

Pretty much all 2017 draftees have now played at least 2 months of pro ball.  Not a big sample size, but enough to give a first impression of who did well and who didn't in the draft.  Here's the breakdown of the first round and where each first round prospect is in their development.   The grades are just for fun and based only on performance up to this point.

1.  Twins:  Royce Lewis, SS/OF, HS.   2017:  Rookie- .271/.390/.414, 3 HR, 15 SB.  Low A- .296/.363/.394, 1 HR, 3 SB.  2018:  Low A- .316/.362/.437, 3 HR, 15 SB.  Royce Lewis might be the most tooled up player from the 2017 draft and he's backing that up with excellent stats on the field.  Grade A.

2.  Reds:  Hunter Greene, RHP, HS.  2017:  Rookie- 0-1, 12.46, 4.1 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's.  2018:  Low A- 0-3, 7.18, 26.1 IP, 14 BB, 36 K, GO/AO= 1.11.  2-way HS player who is focusing exclusively on pitching.  The K's look promising, but the command is a work in progress as you might expect for a HS talent.  Grade C.

3.  Padres:  Mackenzie Gore, LHP, HS.  2017:  Rookie- 0-1, 1.27, 21.1 IP, 7 BB, 34 K.  2018:  Low A:  0-1, 10.13, 8 IP, 2 BB, 10 K's.  Generally rated as the most polished HS pitcher in the draft and the likely fastest mover.  Excellent rookie league results in 2017.  Missed close to a month this season due to a blister issue.  Grade C.

4.  Rays:  Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, College(Louisville).  2017:  SS- 1-0, 1.80, 20 IP, 5 BB, 21 K.  .232/.349/.376, 4 HR, 2 SB.  2018:  Low A- 2-0, 1.09, 24.2 IP, 2 BB, 40 K.  .254/.484/.333, 1 HR.  A+- 2-1, 2.12, 17.0 IP, 1 BB, 19 K's.  2-way college player who is trying to carry that into the pros with a supportive organization.  Wish him the best with that, but it looks like his primary future is on the mound and he's excelling at pitching so far.  Grade A.

5.  Braves:  Kyle Wright, RHP, College(Vanderbilt).  2017:  Rookie- 0-0, 1.59, 5.2 IP, 2 BB, 8 K's.  A+- 0-1, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 4 BB, 10 K's.  2018:  AA- 3-5, 4.27, 52.2 IP, 24 BB, 50 K's.  Competing at a high level for his first full pro season.  Has had some hiccup starts but several outstanding QS's.  Grade A-.

6.  A's:  Austin Beck, OF, HS.  2017:  Rookie- .211/.293/.349, 2 HR, 7 SB.  2018:  Low A- .269/.311/.341, HR, 3 SB.  Beck took on serious helium leading up to the draft then fell back a bit.  The A's bit and now have a project on their hands.  Disappointing rookie league season.  Better so far in Low A in a challenging environment for hitters, although currently in a slump.  Still has a high ceiling because of his tools, but serious bust potential if the bat does not develop.  Not a typical A's draft pick and it may end up biting them.  Grade D.

7.  D'Backs:  Pavin Smith, 1B, College(Virginia).  2017:  SS- .318/.401/.415, 15 2B, 0 HR, 24 K, 27 BB.  2018:  A+- .218/.328/.364, 5 HR, 24 K, 26 BB.  College 1B which means he has to hit like crazy to make it.  Love the K/BB, but the power is disappointing so far.  Grade C.

8.  Phillies:  Adam Haseley, OF, College(Virginia).  2017: 3 levels- .284/.357/.405, 3 HR, 6 SB.  2018:  A+- .276/.322/.391, 3 HR, 5 SB.  2017's version of Andrew Benintendi.  Results so far not as promising although he's hitting .324 over his last 10 games.  Grade B.

9.  Brewers:  Keston Hiura, 2B, College(UC Irvine).  2017: 2 levels: .371/.422/.611, 4 HR, 2 SB.  2018:  A+- .320/382/.529, 7 HR, 4 SB.  Top hit tool in the draft.  If he keeps this up, nobody will care if he plays 2B or 1B or DH's.  Grade A.

10.  Angels:  Jo Adell, OF, HS.  2017:  2 levels- .325/.376/.532.  2018:  Low A- .326/.398/.611, 6 HR, 4 SB, 95 AB.  A+- .184/.225/.474, 3 HR, 2 SB, 38 AB.  Extremely young for the level after a quick promotion from Low A ball.  Saw him in person out at San Manuel Stadium.  Definitely a prospect to dream on.  Grade A.

11.  White Sox:  Jake Burger, 3B, College(Missouri St).  2017:  2 levels- .263/.336/.412, 5 HR.  Touted as a great bat/bad body prospect.  Mediocre pro debut.  Has not played this year due to a torn Achilles tendon.  Grade D.

12.  Pirates:  Shane Baz, RHP, HS.  2017:  Rookie- 0-3, 3.80, 23.2 IP, 14 BB, 19 K.  2018:  Has not played.  Maybe in extended spring training and we'll see him in short season ball?  Grade D.

13.  Marlins:  Trevor Rogers, LHP, HS.  2018:  Low A 0-1, 12.00, 6 IP, 3 BB, 9 K's.  For the record, I love Rogers upside, but knew he was raw and would be a project.  Did not make his pro debut until 5/22/2018.  Grade Incomplete.  C based on extremely small sample.

14.  Royals:  Nick Pratto, 1B, HS.  2017:  Rookie- .247/.330/.414, 4 HR, 10 SB.  2018: Low A- .262/.306/.426, 7 HR, 6 SB.  Scouts loved the bat.  I was skeptical.  The bat may still eventually play and the SB's are surprising for a guy who seems stuck at 1B defensively.  Grade C.

15.  Astros:  JB Bukauskas RHP, College(North Carolina).  2017:  2 levels- 0-0, 2.70, 10 IP, 5 BB, 9 K's.  2018:  Low A- 0-2, 7.94, 5.2 IP, 4 BB, 7 K's.  Smallish college SP whose stuff played up.  Considered to have a high floor.  Currently on the DL.  I am not sure why.  Grade D.

16.  Yankees:  Clarke Schmidt, RHP, College(South Carolina).  Has not made his pro debut.  Schmidt's college career was cut short by TJ surgery.  Yanks were willing to wait.  Personally I am not impressed enough with his upside to wait and take the risk.  I would not have made this pick mid-first round.  Grade- Incomplete.

17.  Mariners:  Evan White, 1B, College(Kentucky).  2017:  SS- .277/.345/.532, 3 HR.  2018:  A+- .289/.363/.416.  Athletic first baseman who has been compared to Cody Belllinger and is believed to be capable of playing OF, even CF!  Numbers so far are good, not great.   Grade B.

18.  Tigers:  Alex Faedo, RHP, College(Florida).  2018:  A+- 1-4, 3.47, 49.1 IP, 11 BB, 42 K.  Some preseason rankings had him as the #1 overall prospect in the 2017 draft.  Stock slipped a bit during his junior season which was actually pretty solid, but unspectacular.  Initial pro numbers are similar.  Grade B.

19.  Giants:  Heliot Ramos, OF, HS.  2017:  Rookie- .348/.404/.645, 6 HR, 10 SB.  2018: Low A- .224//302/.365, 4 HR, 1 SB.  Got off to a tremendous start in rookie ball.  Not unexpectedly struggling in a challenging environment in his first full pro season.  Has shown flashes and is hitting .270 over his last 10 games.  Grade C+.

20.  Mets:  David Peterson, LHP, College(Oregon).  2017:  SS- 0-0, 2.45, 3.2 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's.  2018:  Low A- 1-3, 2.03, 44.1 IP, 11 BB, 39 K, GO/AO= 2.67.  Good but not great numbers with a conservative placement for a college pitcher from a major conference.  Grade B-.

21.  Orioles:  DL Hall, LHP, HS.  2017:  Rookie- 0-0, 6.97, 10.1 IP, 10 BB, 12 K.  2018:  Low A- 0-3, 3.38, 29.1 IP, 16 BB, 26 K.  Good, not great, numbers at an appropriate level.  Grade B.

22.  Blue Jays:  Logan Warmouth, SS, College(North Carolina).  2017:  2 levels- .302/.350/.408, 2 HR, 6 SB.  2018:  A+- .243/.322/.316, 1 HR, 4 SB.  Slow start offensively in a pitcher friendly league.  Grade C.

23.  Dodgers:  Jeren Kendall, OF, College(Vanderbilt).  2017:  2 levels- .253/.311/.444, 3 HR, 9 SB.  2018:  A+- .236/.339/.400, 4 HR, 20 SB.  Tremendous athlete who was limited by strikeouts in college.  Pattern has continued in the pros.  Does the OBP make up for the K's?  Grade B-.

24.  Red Sox:  Tanner Houck, RHP, College(Missouri).  2017:  SS- 0-3, 3.63, 22.1 IP, 8 BB, 25 K.  2018:  2-6, 6.04, 44.2 IP, 33 BB, 32 K.  Tremendous control problems in his first full pro season.  Grade D.

25.  Nationals:  Seth Romero, LHP, College(Houston).  2017:  2 levels- 0-1, 4.91, 22 IP, 8 BB, 35 K.  2018:  Suspended?  Talented LHP who got kicked off his college team for a series of team rule violations.  Nationals took a chance on him presumably because his agent, Scott Boras, is tight with Nationals management/ownership.  Nats sent him home from spring camp. No clear what his current status is.  Grade F.

26.  Rangers:  Bubba Thompson, OF, HS.  2017:  Rookie- .257/.317/.434, 3 HR, 5 SB.  2018:  Low A- .279/.333/.492, 2 HR, 5 SB.  Athletic HS OF, comparable to Heliot Ramos but over 1 year older.  Fairly strong numbers in a pitcher-friendly league.  Grade B.

27.  Cubs:  Brendon Little, LHP, JC.  2017: SS- 0-2, 9.37, 16.1 IP, 9 BB, 12 K's.  2018:  Low A- 2-4, 5.40, 41.2 IP, 19 BB, 37 K's.  Control issues in low A Ball.  Grade C.

28.  Blue Jays:  Nate Pearson, RHP, JC.  2017:  2 levels- 0-0, 0.90, 20.0 IP, 5 BB, 26 K.  2018:  A+- 0-1, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.  1 appearance on 5/7/2018.  Late start due to oblique strain then fractured forearm on a line-drive comebacker in his first appearance.  Good numbers in 2017 pro debut.  Grade- B(Incomplete).

29.  Rangers:  Chris Seise, SS, HS.  2017:  2 levels- .284/.330/.400 3 HR, 6 SB.  2018:  Has not played.  Impressive pro debut.  Probably being held back in extended spring training with conservative SS assignment.  Grade B.

30.  Cubs:  Alex Lange, RHP, College(LSU).  2017:  SS- 0-1, 4.82, 9.1 IP 3 BB, 13 K's.  2018 A+- 3-2, 3.26, 47 IP, 9 BB, 41 K.  Strong numbers in age-appropriate league.  Grade B.







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