As the Winter Meetings begin, the chatter on websites and the MLB channel is all about the Giants going after JD Martinez, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. The problem is all 3 of those players are going to require salary commitments within shouting distance of Giancarlo Stanton, each! That approach might return the Giants to postseason contention but would also likely have them bumping up against the CBT threshold for the next 3-4 seasons. Early in the offseason, the Giants brass said they would like to stay under the CBT threshold if at all possible. If that is the case, they have about $10 M to spend this offseason without dumping salary. Believe it or not, there are ways they can address their needs for about $10 M in additional expenditures. The Giants needs are improved defense in CF, 3B, power, backup catcher, bullpen help. Here's how they get it done:
1. Re-sign Nick Hundley 2 years/$5 M.
2. Trade Tyler Beede for Brett Phillips. Brewers need pitching. Giants need a CF. Approximately equal value as prospects. Phillips would be league minimum salary $550 K.
3. Trade Mac Williamson, #2 overall Rule 5 draft pick and $1 M of international bonus money to the Padres for 3B Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has 2 years left on his contract for a total of $7.5 M which means his AAV for CBT purposes is $3.75 M. Hate to give up Mac, but he's out of options and deep in Bochy's doghouse so the best thing to do is trade him for something. I think he will hit 30 HR's in a season someday, but likely not with the Giants. Padres love them some Rule 5 draft picks and they love international bonus pool money. Trade would have to be worked out ahead of the Rule 5 draft with the Giants picking a specific player for the Padres.
So, the Giants have filled 3 needs with a total of $7.25 M. That leaves them with $2.75 M to sign a reliever and/or trade for a corner OF.
Other potential trade targets include:
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.(Arbitration eligible, est. $5.9 M).
CF Jake Marisnek(Arb. eligible, est. $2.0 M).
Corner OF Clint Frazier(minimum).
CF Keon Broxton(minimum)
3B Hernan Perez(Arb eligible, est. $2.2 M). Can play 3B and all other positions except catcher.
3B Derek Dietrich(Arb eligible, est $3.2 M).
CF Leury Garcia(Arb eligible, est $1.2 M)
OF Domingo Santana(Minimum). Doubt Giants have prospects to get him.
What is your plan for the Giants at the Winter Meetings?
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If the Giants decide to blow off 2018 & 2019 and aim for 2020's, in addition to Bumgarner's friendly contract for 2 years, so is Moore's and Samardzija's isn't too bad considering what he brings in terms of IPs. I would think they could bring some strong upper minor's prospects.
ReplyDeleteAnother untouchable who might be tradeable wold be Crawford. His contract isn't small but he brings a presence to any team with fielding skills and timely hitting.
Parker, Williamson, Strickland, and maybe the LH relievers could return some longer term prospects.
If Cueto rebounds in the first half, he could be the last salary commitment that might be shed.
Brandon Belt, another rebound candidate, is perhaps the last "big" salary that could be shipped off for younger prospects that could be above the lottery level.
Melancon's salary is probably with us unless ...
Posey is what's left of the face of the Giants, and maybe the only recognizable one!
What a horrible team that's left but one with a LOT of money and the future stars. jp
Ah that wouldn't be such a horrible team - although you haven't got many starting pitchers left!
Delete1. Duggar CF
2. Arroyo 3b
3. Posey C
4. Shaw 1B
5. Pence LF
6. Panik 2B
7. Tomlinson SS
8. ?? RF (I like D Santana)
SP Rotation
Blach
Stratton
Beede
Hmmmmm....pretty thin here
This may sound extreme and ridiculous but The Giants really shouldn't sign anyone older than Madison Bumgarner. Cain is 32, for heaven's sake. And Moutstakas is 29. Sorry, out. JD would drive up the payroll and create problems down the road. Your excellent post about the youth movement was, well, excellent.
ReplyDeleteAnd speaking of MadBum, as for the discussion about trading Bumgarner, I could see it happening (and it would break my heart) but I think it would have a greater seismic impact on the organization than trading Matt Williams. So, the Giants FO would go from getting Stanton to ensure high attendance as well as spiking season ticket sales to moving Bumgarner for what could end up being a box of rock (because you never know). How would that play out with the SF faithful who attend games?
1. JD Martinez for LF (below average in RF).
ReplyDelete2. Promote Duggar to CF.
3. RF to be some combination of Parker/Williamson/Slater.
4. Trade Cueto to a contender looking for pitching.
5. Sell Span & Pence for what you can get, even if means eating salary.
6. Sign Petit for long-relief. Pray that Arroyo figures it out for 3B.
7. Hope like heck one of: Gregario, Beede & Suarez (the kid from Miami, not the horrible reliever from last year) can figure it out.
Stay the heck away from 35+ year olds while trying squeeze one more season out of them...
Hank Schulman tweets: Steven Duggar, your possible #sfgiants CF of the near future, was named to the Arizona Fall League Top Prospects team, voted by managers and coaches for the six teams. Duggar was one of six outfielders named. Came on strong after a rough start.
DeleteDidn't Petit already sign with the A's?
ReplyDeleteYeah. He did. I forgot. So much for that.
DeleteI feel your pain. Would love to have Petit on the team.
DeleteThere are 3 moves the Giants need to make that will give them a chance to compete next season and build for the future.
ReplyDelete1. Trade Shark to clear payroll for one of the following players: Ian Happ, DJ Lamahieu, Odubel Herrera, or Michael Taylor. I prefer Ian or DJ but any of them will do the trick and the others might come with prospects.
2. Sign JD Martinez. This doesn't feel like the right move for some reason but it does fill a big hole and makes a large splash that allows management to show the fanbase they are making an effort. He would provide almost the same value in the lineup as Stanton and would also let management save some face.
3. Trade for Nicholas Castellanos. Last year he hit 26 homeruns and had 101 rbi's and he isn't going to be in the Tigers plans at 3B for the future with Jay Candelario now in the fold. The Tigers will take prospects for Castellanos and it won't require any of the top guys. He could be this years version of Travis Shaw, Will Myers from 2016, JD Martinez from 2014, etc. and the Giants need to try and pry him away.
Lineup might look something like this:
Panik 2B
Posey C
Belt 1B
Martinez LF
Happ CF
Castellanos 3B
Crawford SS
Pence RF
Rotation:
MadBum
Cueto
Moore
Stratton
Blach
Hope that Beede takes over as a starter halfway through the season or if we are in the race trade for an arm then. This wouldn't give us a great defense with Martinez especially in LF but it does provide some power to the lineup and would put up enough runs to give this pitching staff a chance most nights.
I like these younger and cheaper ideas - could SF trade Samardjiza for Domingo Santana OF? Solarte a nice idea or Castellanos at 3B, Hundley for sure, what's taking so long there? Could SF trade Strickland for Jackie Bradley Jr CF? Span could be good for prospects and then go do some digging for RP gems - although Will Smith could be Jeremy Affeldt, Sam Dyson could be Romo, Melancon could be Casilla. Could Okert become Javier Lopez, the leftie specialist who can always get Bellinger out? Gearrin looking good, plus the new pitching coaches could straighten out Osich, Maronta, Suarez. Beede good to keep around to take starts when rotation has injuries.
DeleteI just read, a few hours ago anyway, that Samardzija is on the trading block. I think it's not so much 'active' but 'willing.'
DeleteThis is one of the few realistic and kinda outside the box scenarios I've come across. Although intriguing, I'm not sure if it'll work overall because of the lack of pitching and inferior defense
Delete1. Trading Shark for Ian Happ will probably require Giants to eat salary.
2. Like Stanton, I don't see why JD Martinez would want to sign with Giants unless it's a huge overpay
3. Castellanos is a poor defender at 3rd
One of the first priorities outlined by Evans was OF defense. Happ is not good enough in CF to be able to cover for Martinez and an older Pence. Castellanos would weaken the infield D. And without Shark the rotation doesn't have a high enough of a ceiling to outperform projections and not enough firepower to overcome many deficiencies.
The only way I think Giants can even hope to compete is for Bumgarner to be Bumgarner, Cueto to return to 2016 form, Shark to take another step forward and have his ERA be a closer match to his FIP, and Moore to be more like his 2016 self, and for Stratton/Blach to be competent. This would be like having two #1s, a #2, an ok #4, and ok #5, which would mean Giants would need to be only middle of the pack in offense to be competitive on most nights. Of course shoring up the bullpen, but they potentially have the pieces already. If they can sneak in to the Wild Card game anything can happen and no team would want to play them.
I'll take a shot.
1. Trade for Andrew McCuthchen - not sure what kind of package Pirates would want but I guess it's gotta start with Beede with Mac Williamson, Miguel Gomez, another piece?
2. Span and $10 mil to any team looking for a leadoff hitter for low A lottery ticket
3. Trade for Derek Fisher with trade package centered around Aramis Garcia, maybe Hunter Strickland and Sandro Fabian
4. Resign Hundley for 2 years/7 mil
Move Pence to LF. Arroyo at 3B. Lots of rest and platooning to keep everyone fresh.
Lineup:
CF Derek Fisher (L), 122 games CF
RF Andrew McCuthchen, 142 RF
1B Brandon Belt (L), 142 1B
C Buster Posey, 112 C, 20 1B
2B Joe Panik (L), 142 2B
LF Hunter Pence, 122 LF
SS Brandon Crawford (L), 142 SS
3B Christian Arroyo, 112 3B, 20 SS
Bench:
OF Austin Slater, 40 CF, 10 LF
OF Jarrett Parker, 30 LF, 20 RF
IF Pablo Sandoval, 50 3B
IF Kelby Tomlinson, 20 2B, primary pinch runner
C Nick Hundley, 50 C
Rotation:
Madison Bumgarner (L)
Johnny Cueto
Jeff Samardzija
Matt Moore (L)
Christ Stratton
Bullpen:
Ty Blach (L), longman
Cory Gearrin
Steven Okert (L)
Kyle Crick
Sam Dyson
Will Smith (L)
Mark Melancon
If the team is out of it by the trading deadline it'll be time to start selling off assets and relying on guys like Steven Duggar, Chris Shaw, Andrew Suarez, etc.
I can't argue with it being a creative and realistic solution to the offseason but it won't please the fans and put butts in the seats. That is the factor you are forgetting about. This organization is not going to rebuild and Mccutchen for one year who isn't much better in CF than Happ isn't planning for the future or giving them any better chance to win now.
DeletePower plays now days and adding Martinez, Happ, and Castellanos would double the run production overnight. Fill the bench with defensive replacements for late innings if that worries you but it didn't seem to matter when Panda was playing 3rd all those years and Pat the Bat and Travis Ishikawa were manning LF during our world series runs.
Score more runs and this pitching staff will magically feel less pressure! The bullpen will be more effective too and just imagine the rbi opportunities for Martinez, Happ, and Castellanos with Panik, Posey, and Belt peppering singles and taking close pitches for walks in front of them! Crawford and Pence/Span at the bottom of the lineup would feel no pressure and probably be the most productive 7th and 8th hitters in the league.
Right handed power bats are my top priority and if Happ isn't the guy then maybe DJ Lamahieu is and you make him the 3B option and put Castellanos in LF and sign Cameron Maybin for CF. Trading shark and getting Castellanos I think are good moves if you don't like anything else. They can replace Sharks arm in the rotation and Castellanos producing 25 HR's and 100 rbi's in our lineup would more than make up for any defensive inefficiencies at 3B or LF. Right handed power will play at AT&T remember Kent, Aurelia, Burks, Burrell, and Galaraga? Our pitching is good enough to make this lineup and rotation competitive:
Panik 2B
Posey C
Belt 1B
Castellanos LF
Lemaheiu 3B
Crawford SS
Pence RF
Maybin CF
Rotation:
Madbum
Cueto
Moore
Stratton
Blach
trade for an arm at the trade deadline if we are in the hunt
Hmm, if you think Castellanos, LeMaheiu, and Maybin are gonna put butts in the seats then we are living in completely different worlds
DeleteWinning puts butts in the seats and yes, I think those guys could help us win! Lamaheiu is a potential super star and Castellanos has all the makings of a breakout offensive star as well. It wouldn't take much to get production out of this lineup if there were a couple right handed bats with some pop in the middle of the order. Maybin batting 8th isn't the deal breaker is it?
DeleteI think you're too bullish on these guys and of course I'd rather take the lineup I proposed any day of the week but to each his own I guess
DeleteAlso, when Panda was with the Giants he was mostly a plus defender at 3rd. Also, clog-footed defenders were passable in LF because Pagan/Blanco was a positive overall, Andres Torres was great and even Pence was an above average.
DeleteI think the Giants really need to stay below the CBT threshold. All the financial windfall they realized in finally paying off the mortgage on ATT Park is being sucked up by the luxury tax payment. Their sellout streak was broken but do they really project to have a serious drop in attendance in 2018 and 2019? ATT Park is not only a local attraction but a destination of interest for visitors. If they can field respectable teams for the next two seasons while staying below the CBT they should still be able to draw healthy crowds albeit short of sellouts. Then they will be in good financial shape at the time their top prospects are starting to make the majors.
ReplyDeleteI think the Giants can make the following moves reasonably to address their current deficiencies (i.e. outfield defense, run production) without compromising the short or long-term future. To that end, I really hope the Giants do not sign any of the QO guys.
ReplyDelete1. Consider McCutchen, play him in RF. He posted solid defensive numbers in RF last season (runs saved), and he hit for an OPS over .800. He's not wowing anyone with HR numbers, but I don't necessarily believe the Giants should be focusing on raw power totals in their search for run production. Playing half of all games at AT&T will depress those numbers no matter who's in the lineup. Plus, if it doesn't work out with McCutchen, he comes off the books this season.
2. Take a look at Mallex Smith in Tampa. In short spurts, he posts solid defensive numbers in CF, and he will never play that position in Tampa as long as Kiermeier is there. He seems to get on base at a decent (and improving) rate--certainly better than Billy Hamilton, and he'd come at a fraction of the Hamilton price.
3. Take a flier on Profar in Texas. Still young, gets on base and a switch hitter who plays solid defense across the infield. Reunite him with his Netherlands manager (Meulens) who can hopefully help unlock the talent almost every evaluator believes Profar still has. If it costs Panik (plus prospects) to get McCutchen, then the Giants have a couple of options (Arroyo/Profar) for his replacement.
I recognize these aren't terribly flashy acquisitions, but, in the current landscape, I think they're within reason and would improve areas of the team in a way that suits the current construction of the roster. Presumably without too much of a prospect cost.
Maybe Mallex Smith could come in a package with Longoria - what would that cost the Giants?
DeletePlus one season of McCutcheon isn't worth giving up Panik, is it?
DeleteIs Profar a 3B trade option? What would he cost the Giants?
DeleteI like the ideas DrB. I'm glad you have some, because I sure feel like I'm coming up empty these days. I would welcome both Phillips & Solarte on the team. Solarte is pretty steady, and Phillips reminds me of Duggar, but with more prospect hype!
ReplyDeletePersonally, I wish the Giants would trade Mac for his own well being. Quit wasting his prime years.
Cove Chatter
Thanks, Covechatter. Always respect your opinions.
Delete...and Hank Schulman is reporting the Giants are "listening to offers" for the #2 overall Rule 5 Draft pick. Bingo! Yangervis Solarte would be a terrific solution to the Giants 3B problem.
I honestly don't understand the love for Mac. Yes, there is truth that he hasn't had an extended, sustained opportunity in the bigs.
DeleteBut his AAA numbers in '16 and '17 don't come close to meriting the opportunity.
I can't believe the guy would have much, if any trade value. Change of scenery might do him good. But, he'll never hit like Duvall once if leaves. Doc, I'll take the under on 20 HRs for Mac. He has the power to do it, but he'll never get the 450 ABs it will take to get there.
A lot of people were saying exactly the same thing about Aaron Judge this time last year.
DeleteIDK, there's Mac's size, exit velocity, Intriguing glimpses of what he could become. He is the one guy in the entire Giants organization who has a semblance of a chance to breakout like Aaron Judge did this year. I just think they should be working with him instead of sending him to the back of the doghouse.
DeleteIs Solarte a 2nd baseman, do you think Ty Blach has any significant trade value?
ReplyDeleteSolarte has played 140 career games at 2B, 321 at 3B and 28 at SS. He's an averagish fielder at 3B and 2B. Strangely enough, he has a strongly positive UZR at SS, but that's probably just a SSS quirk.
DeleteBlach probably has some trade value but not enough to bring back a significant player on his own.
Deletehttps://www.mlb.com/news/pirates-open-to-trade-offers-for-gerrit-cole/c-263286512
ReplyDeletePackage a deal for McCutchen & Cole... Might as well bring the in-laws in. Cole at AT&T might be worthwhile. Give Moore and Pence a tray of peanuts each and put him in the stands, since I believe both are untradeable.
i like the solarte idea, he is very underrated at third!! i might have to steal that for my channel next sunday depending on what happens this week during winter meetings!!
ReplyDeleteOne year rental for McCutchen? Pffft.
ReplyDeleteGotta be for mid and lower prospects.
And need to take care of his 14 million. Just don't see it -- he'd make a difference of 2 games if that. He's not worth CB problems.
BTW, if that great evaluater of teams, G Stanton, is representative of players opinions around the major leagues, no FA is coming to the Giants without being seriously overpaid.
Overpaid is what, I hope, the Giants used to do.
Except for Stanton, but He didn't believe SF could improve 30 wins even with Him aboard.
This talk about the infield, namely 3B from the top guy himself, is Arroyo not ready or is he a never will be?
He should be the first option unless someone knows something. He's young, play him.
A trim Panda -- any sightings -- wasn't a liability at 3rd, was he?
A ball hawk in CF, a real hitter in RF, and a platoon in LF.
Then it's up to our billion dollar pitchers!
Go get em! jp
That's good analysis from anonymous - no more old outfielders - SF needs young and fast with some pop in the bat. Dr B suggest B Phillips for Beede, also there's Clint Frazier on NYY who just got pushed out of the OF might come over with a couple prospects for Samardjiza. Go for both and put Pence in LF and keep Span as 4th OF. You can play Slater and Duggar every day in Sacramento until needed/ready. Trade Mac, Parker, time to move on from them.
Delete