Sunday, December 31, 2017

DrB's Preliminary 2018 Giants Top 50 Prospects List

I've been holding off on the Top 50 this year because it seems likely there is at least 1 more big trade coming down the pike.  It's getting late in the offseason and the Great Hot Stove Freeze Out grinds on.  I'l try to get this thing off the ground here and still kick the can down the road by posting my PRELIMINARY 2018 Giants Top Prospects list.  Please feel free to make constructive suggestions.  Remember this is PRELIMINARY and subject to change so you can influence the final product with your comments.

1.  Heliot Ramos, OF
2.  Tyler Beede RHP
3.  Steven Duggar, OF
4.  Bryan Reynolds, OF
5.  Chris Shaw, OF/1B
6.  Aramis Garcia, C
7.  Andrew Suarez, LHP
8.  Sandro Fabian, OF
9.  Jacob Gonzalez, 3B
10. Shaun Anderson, RHP
11. Gregory Santos, RHP
12.  Alexander Canario, OF
13.  Garrett Williams, LHP
14.  Ryan Howard, SS
15.  Ricardo Genoves, C
16. Julian Fernandez, RHP
17.  DJ Snelton, LHP
18.  Reyes Maronta, RHP
19.  Sam Wolff, RHP
20.  Heath Quinn, OF
22.  Jonah Arenado, 3B/1B
22.  Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
23. Melvin Adon, RHP
24.  Patrick Ruotolo, RHP
25.  Jalen Miller, 2B
26.  Kelvin Beltre, 2B
27.  Seth Corry, LHP
28.  Logan Webb, RHP
29.  Jason Bahr, RHP
30.  Stetson Woods, RHP
31.  Carlos Diaz, LHP
32.  Orlando Garcia, 2B
33.  Malique Ziegler, OF
34.  Rob Calabrese, C
35  Shane Matheny, 3B
36.  Logan Baldwin, OF
37.  Bryce Johnson, OF
38.  Camilo Doval, RHP
39.  John Gavin LHP
40.  Jose Marte, RHP
41.  Diego Rincones, OF
42.  Ismael Munguia, OF
43.  Aaron Bond, OF
44.  Jeffrey Parra, C
45.  Manuel Geraldo, IF
46.  Conner Menez, LHP
47.  Jake Greenwalt, RHP
48.  Franklin Van Gurp, RHP
49.  Garrett Cave, RHP
50. Brandon Van Horn, SS

Honorable Mention:  Jacob Heyward OF, Dylan Rheault RHP, Wil LaMarche RHP, Rodolfo Martinez RHP, Michael Cederoth RHP, Dillon Dobson 1B, Dylan Davis OF, Matt Winn C, Eduardo Rivera RHP, Ronnie Jebavy OF, Gio Brusa OF

Who am I forgetting?

29 comments:

  1. Nice list. Personally, I'd move Shaw to 3. I think he'll be our starting left fielder sometime this season. I'd also include Tyler Rogers, as I think he'll either break camp with the team or join them soon thereafter. Also, though I know he was dinged for PED, I think Gregorio is still somebody to watch, provided he comes back well from this incident.

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    1. I will have to add Gregorio in somewhere. Rogers too. I have strong doubts about Shaw's D in LF.

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    2. Isn't Gregorio out of options this year, so has to stick on the Opening Day roster or be exposed to waivers? I know Mac is in the same boat, but he's technically not a prospect.

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  2. Joan Gregorio
    C.J. Hinojosa
    Sam Coonrod
    Jordan Johnson
    Miguel Gomez
    Kevin Rivera
    Tyler Brown

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    1. I will have to find spots for Gregorio, Hinojosa, Gomez and Coonrod. Maaaaybe HM's for Johnson, Rivera and Brown? I know I looked at them and just kind of said nah, don't think so.

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    2. Cory Taylor took a step back but probably should be top 50.
      Jose Flores? Don't know too much about him

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  3. Has big Dan Slania and Rodolfo Martinez fallen off the list? Also, what about Austin Slater? He has 117 AB.. has he already graduated from being a prospect?

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    1. Big Dan deserves to be on the list after an MLB debut last year, although didn't he get dropped from the 40 man? Hmmm.... I thought Slater graduated for sure but I guess the injuries kept him from getting the requisite AB's. If he's still technically a prospect, then he should be top 10. Martinez is HM until he proves he can stay healthy.

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    2. I see Dan Slania is still on the 40 man roster, so that's good for him. I also see Chase Johnson, Pierce Johnson and Roberto Gomez, so I suppose I need to include them too.

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  4. Just a feeling but I think Suarez has the most impact of anyone on that list this season. I think he finds his way into the rotation and does well.

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  5. So, what about Slater at #4 after Duggar? Gregorio, Gomez, Slania after Canario, who I am irrationally exuberant about? Hinojosa slotted after Garrett Williams? Tyler Rogers after Maronta?

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    1. That will bump Geraldo, Menez, Greenwalt, Van Gurp, Cave and Van Horn down to HM. I think I'm OK with that.

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  6. Ok. Two things.

    First, I'd put Slater as #1 because he performed well in his call-up to the majors. My only reservation about him is he's kind of like Panik in that he's looking like he's going to be somewhat BABIP dependent. (FWIW, he was the Giants MLB #5 at mid-season update.)

    Everyone else on the list hasn't performed in the majors, so they're (in my book) not eligible to pass someone who, if he'd had 600 PAs would have been around a 1.9-to-2.0 fWAR player. Not great, but that would have been better than anyone else we had out there last year. And since prospects fail more than they succeed, I'm going to give #1 to the guy who has done something at the MLB level, over a guy with twice, maybe three times, his potential but is a long way away.

    Second, after that adjustment I'd go with your list because at that point we're speculating. Though I'd add Gregorio (low Top-10), Hinojosa (low Top-20), Coonrod (low Top-20) and Johnson (30s or so) in there somewhere.


    Also, I really appreciate all the effort you put into this. Because of the well thought posts and details, this is, literally, the first blog I check every day. And, often, multiple times in a day.

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    1. Thanks, Moses. I could see myself being talked into Slater at #2 but Heliot Ramos is god. at least until he struggles in Augusta. BTW, Augusta has a new stadium. wonder how that will impact pitching and hitting stats. The old stadium was a nightmare for hitters.

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  7. Like Moses, I too check this blog before any other, and often several times during the day.

    I see Moses’ point about Slater’s having made it to MLB, while Ramos labors in the minors’ depths; but to support DrB’s ranking, I haven’t come across any rival organizations making trade demands for Slater, which the Giants or their gossipy acolytes have called a deal breaker. I haven’t seen mentioned any trade demands for Slater at all, though he’s MLB-ready.

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    1. Slater is probably not tradable until he proves he is healthy, although that was not true of Arroyo.

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  8. As always, thanks for the hard work, and this list tends to my go-to for the Giants prospects each year.

    That said, how about Crick? He is still a rookie, and I think he showed enough in ‘17 to salvage his prospect-ness. Not sure he should be top 10, but 20 easy.

    I know you keep oreching groupings vs actual order, and I am a big believer in that logic as well. I have, IMHO, a clear top 3 that can offer no argument against placing in any order. I feel the Giants top 3 is Ramos, Beede and Shaw. Beede and Shaw are just about ready, so I have them at 1 and 2 (Shaw is my 1, BTW). Ramos has a super high ceiling, but so did Chuckie, Rodriguez, Cabrera and Javier. None of those guys made it past San Jose. I have a very hard time rating anyone below San Jose as a #1.

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    1. Good point about Crick. He is under the 50 IP, but made 30 appearances last year which is a about a full half season for a reliever. I'll check and see if there are alternative IP rules for relievers as far as rookie eligibility goes. isn't there something about number of days on the active roster too?

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    2. So, Crick was on the 25 man active roster for more than 45 days before rosters expanded in September, so he's not ROY eligible so I think I will consider him graduated.

      I'll have to check on Slater too in that regard too. I am not sure how DL time is counted.

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  9. Happy New Year to Dr B and all the readers - great source of information and exchange and Dr B is generous with letting people air out their ideas about the Giants. So many good prospects that might help the SF club, its just that they aren't proven, eh? You've got your power in LF in Shaw, your defensive CF in Duggar - plenty of starting pitching and DJ Snelton might be the lefty bullpen piece? Slater I thought had proved himself worthy of staying with SF until the injury. One question about trading for JBJr - his salary is 5 or 6M - so what does that leave SF to offer Jay Bruce or other FA corner OF power bat? Might not be enough in the 'budget'

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  10. Ryder Jones? He is still a rookie and quite young. But wow did he look bad in SF...

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    1. Ryder Jones "graduated" last year with 150 AB's, 20 more than the 130 limit to retain ROY eligibility.

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  11. Why did the Giants jump Duggar over Reynolds, when it seemed that Reynolds was having the better year in San Jose?
    Was this because of the critical CF need?
    Reynolds did about everything he needed to do in A+ but get promoted.

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    1. Duggar was only in San Jose for a rehab assignment. He did not "jump over" Reynolds.

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    2. Ah, yes, I see Duggar would have gone from Richmond in '16 to Sacramento in '17 but after the injury (off season? spring training?) he was a month in SJ before going to Sacramento, having spent the previous year in Richmond.
      Do you recall his injury? That must have been a big disappointment.

      As normal progression goes, Reynolds will start this year in Richmond, maybe moving to Sacramento if he does well enough. Or would the Giants leave him for a year of AA regardless of how well he does.

      My choice of words -- "jumped" -- was not good. I wondered about Duggar going from last year's top 50 (6) to this year's (3) as Reynolds fell from 3 to 4.

      What do you think will happen with Reynolds? Probably not a CFer and not enough arm for RF?

      Does he have enough power to play LF for the Giants, maybe in 2019, assuming he'll continue to hit for contact on his way up?

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  12. Patrick Ruotolo had a very nice year for Augusta and jumped from the HM to mid pack this year. For a 27th round draftee @ 5'10" he did all you expect, nearly 13K/9! Is his "shortness" and a not good GB rate going to work against him?

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    1. Height does not matter as long as he continues to put up good numbers. GB rate not important as long as the K's stay up.

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  13. Ruotolo was UConn closer in 2016 before being drafted in 27th round. John Russell interestingly replaced Ruotolo as UConn closer in 2017 and followed in his footsteps at Salem-Keizer after being drafted in 2017 16th round. Set single season saves record at UConn while recording 15.63 K/9 in top tier conference. Similarly high 14.69 K/9 rate at S/K while having lowest ERA and WHIP on team in closer role. Expect him in Augusta this year, kid who's still filling out physically w upside, perhaps he should have cracked the bottom portion of the list.....? In any case, two UConn closers picked back to back in later rounds of 2016 and 2017 drafts who have performed very well in organization to date.

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