Thursday, December 28, 2017

Hot Stove Update: The Baseball Market Has Congealed

Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, had a way with words.  "Irrational Exuberance" in the stock market is one of my favorite phrases of all time and I borrow it liberally.  I also have vivid recollections of him talking of "congealed" markets in testimony to Congress after the 2008 real estate market crash.  That phrase comes to mind when pondering the current offseason and the state of the baseball free agent and trade markets.  Here we are, 4 days from 2018.  If we exclude Masahirio Tanaka, who was never really a free agent after declining the opt-out clause in his contract,  MLBTR's top 9 free agents are still out there unsigned. Same goes for 30 of the top 50. If you add in the 14 honorable mentions, it's 40 out of the top 64.  Generally by January 1, the vast majority of free agents have signed.  Trades are generally all done within 1 week after the Winter Meetings.  With so many free agents and potential trades still out there and the Stanton/Ohtani circuses out of town, activity should have picked up.  Instead, it's gone the other way.  We have not seen a significant signing or trade since the Giants acquired Evan Longoria, which was now 8 days ago.  The baseball markets have congealed!  So what's going on here?

1.  This free agent class is deeply flawed, creating a mismatch in valuation between players and teams.  JD Martinez hit 90 HR's over the last 2 years, but is a poor fielder which is likely to only get worse.  Teams willing to give him a 6 or 7 year contract may be limited to the AL, and the Yankees filled their need in the Stanton trade.  Add in his asking price and you are down to Boston as a possible destination, and Boston seems to be well aware of his relative lack of other options.  Yu Darvish has those two horrible WS starts fresh in GM's minds and is a TJ survivor.  Jake Arrieta appears to be possibly on the downside of his career.  Lorenzo Cain is 34 years old.  Eric Hosmer has poor fielding metrics and is BABIP dependent for WAR points.  Most teams already have a first baseman who is likely to be as good or better for a lot less money.  The list goes on. Almost every free agent has issues that make teams think they can do better for a smaller investment.

2.  The 2018-19 Free agent cycle is shaping up to be much stronger and teams my be harboring their money to make a run at that class.  Teams that might consider shelling out for JD Martinez may also think they have a shot at Bryce Harper and why block that opportunity by signing Martinez now?

3.  The longer the market stays inactive, the more likely that prices will start coming down, possibly dramatically. MLBTR ran an article yesterday speculating about "pillow contracts", 1 year deals which would allow the player to test the market again next year.  Nobody wants to be the first buyer in a crashing market.

4.  Groupthink has become a significant issue among MLB GM's.  At least 26 teams have GM's who are "analytically oriented" which means they likely all have very similar valuation schemes.  With everybody valuing the same type of player, trades become more difficult and the fact the free agents are free tells you someone already decided they were not worth their asking price.

5.  We may be getting close to a virtual salary cap in MLB.  Penalties for exceeding the CBT threshold have become severe enough that teams who ignored it in the past are now scrambling to get under it and avoid the penalties.  The Dodgers are exhibit A here, but the Yankees and Giants are not far behind.  Teams may also now be more careful about looking ahead and making sure longterm contracts don't box them into a CBT corner in the future.

These factors may well be combining to create the type of harmonic convergence that causes a market crash.  Again, nobody wants to be the first buyer in a crashing market.  The baseball market has congealed.  This could get ugly for the players.

25 comments:

  1. Dr B,
    What would you think if the Giants went all in on an "older team" philosophy by trading for Billy Hamilton (only 27 Years old) and Andrew McCutcheon. We would at least have an interesting team to watch on opening day.

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    1. In Hamilton's case, if the price is Heliot Ramos, I would much rather sign Jarrod Dyson and platoon him with Gorkys, which would likely be a more productive CF situation than Hamilton anyway. I also think Cam Maybin is a better option than Hamilton. I like the Cutch idea as long as it doesn't involve trading Ramos.

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  2. I like your perspective on the FA market -- and I hope you are right. Players and their agents (see: Scott Boras) have driven inflation over the years by playing the "irrational exuberance" of one GM against another.

    Not that I'm blaming them; that's their job. But it's nice to see sanity and thriftiness gain the upper hand, if only for one off season.

    Also, this plays well into the Giants' collective hands, cash strapped as they are. Maybe they can land a difference-maker or two on one or more of these "pillow contracts" you mentioned. That would be ideal.

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  3. Folks, can you tell me this lovefest about Billy Hamaliton. I just don't see it. I mean the Reds,want Ramos, in a package deal. Just sign Dyson, and wait for Duggar, since Sabean, is very high on the kid. If Evans, trades heliot in any trade, he needs to go.

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    1. A lot of fans agree with you - if Ramos is traded I will boycott the team I grew up until there is management shakeup.

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    2. Well hang on a minute - what if you could trade Ramos and Belt to the Marlins for Yelich and Realmuto? Then move Buster to 1B full-time, free up Belt's money and keep shopping for OF and RP

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  4. Recently;y I saw on the internet an article regarding every team's worst free agent signing. Every team has been burned at least once. I think the allure of signing 30 year old players to huge deals is over with the exception of the true superstar - the Bonds, Stanton, Harper. How often have we seen a mediocre player have a career year right before he signs a big fat contract - only two revert to the mean shortly thereafter? I think teams will reserve big contracts for platers in their 30's in only rare cases. The whole baseball world saw Pence, Cain, Span falter badly in their early 30's...

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  5. I suspect those free agents waiting for an offer are using a word other than "congealed." LOL. The tough part for the Giants is AT&T Park isn't a great park to play in for "pillow contract" candidates. Still, this market stagnation might present an opportunity for the Giants.

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    1. However, AT&T is a good park for pitcher's 'pillow contracts' - maybe trade Samardjiza + for power OF (McCutchen?) or power/speed OF (DSantana) and then sign bargain FA pitching. Trevor Cahill and Chris Tillman are two good FA SPs who need bounceback 1 year contracts. Take up Ellsbury if NYY will pay him down to $6M and include Clint Frazier/Chance Adams for Kelby Tomlinson...

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  6. Yours was the most logical and thoughtful piece I've seen addressing the current market. I always learn something when I check in, and will look forward to your thoughts as we continue to approach the 2018 season. Best for a happy and productive New Year!

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    1. Thank you. Now watch Scott Boras prove me wrong by hoodwinking some owner into overruling their baseball people and paying $200 M for one of his free agent clients.

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  7. If the Giants go looking at trade possibilities, the first thing they'll hear is "How about Heliot Ramos?"
    The other GM would be derelict not to ask.
    This is a not-to-worry scenario.
    Because the Giants might have traded their #1 prospect for Stanton doesn't mean there is another player they would even consider -- maybe another not-high-1st round choice named Mike Trout, but even that would be problematic with 100M owed for 3 years and gone.
    Maybe Judge. Belt and Ramos for Judge.

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    1. LOL Belt and Ramos for Judge. That's a good one!

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    2. Well they got Longoria without trading HRamos - I'm sure they can trade Samardzija for a centerfielder with speed if not Domingo Santana, plus that subtracts payroll further...

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    3. Where will HRamos start the year - AAA or AA?

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    4. Who replaces Samardzija in the rotation? They are already down to having 4 unproven pitchers, Stratton, Blach, Beede and Suarez competing for 2 rotation spots.

      Ramos is only 18 years old. He will likely start 2018 in low A Augusta.

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  8. I know Samarzija is an inning-eater and all that but he's been sub-.500 and a high ERA. Flashes of dominance from time to time. If you clear his salary with the 15-19M already under the cap, couldn't SF sign Darvish or Arrieta? Also there's Tillman and Cahill that are proven but coming back from injury...

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    1. I would not touch either Darvish or Arrieta with a 10 foot pole. Both are looking for contracts that cost way more and are longer term than Samardzija and aren't likely to be much better, if at all. Tillman and Cahill are minor league contract with spring training invite types, not what you want to replace Shark with.

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  9. Not to mention sending Pence for Ellsbury if NYY pays down Ellsbury to $6-8M cost to SF and free up some more $$ - could be a swap Tomlinson for Chance Adams that goes with that and there's another high ceiling young pitcher for SF.

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    1. Not sure where you are coming up with these, MM, but Kelby Tomlinson has zero trade value let alone someone who would bring back Chance Adams.

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  10. Ha ha - I know, Dr B - just playing armchair GM out of boredom. Do you think JBJr can be had if Boston signs JD or JBruce - what would SF have to give up to get JBJ in CF? A lot could fall into place once they solve CF. I haven't heard much about Parker or Williamson getting a shot during ST - seems like Parker was going good until the injury. What if one or both come to spring training just ripping the ball? Could Parker play a decent defensive CF and hit 20 HRs? Could Mac play a decent defensive RF and hit 20 HRs? What if they are the answer and SF can put their 15-19M under the cap into some stud relief pitching...?

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    1. The early talk was a Belt for JBJ trade. That's not going to happen now that Boston re-upped Mitch Moreland. IDK, Boston probably needs young pitching more than anything so a package of pitching prospects centered around Tyler Beede would be my thought if JBJ came available.

      I would love to see both Parker and Mac get a half season of uninterrupted PA's to prove out one way or another, but after the Longoria trade, the Giants are all in for winning now and are looking for more certainty that that.

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    2. I'm still holding out some hope that the Lerner's overrule their baseball people and force them to sign JD Martinez which could then make Michael Taylor a trade chip.

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  11. Was 3B really as bad last year as the entire OF?
    Of course, "fixing" one position is easier than 3, but "they" say up the middle is the backbone so unless you're getting killed at 3rd, was that the most important "upgrade"?
    Actually the OF is "easy" to fix because any positive WAR player is an improvement!
    Some combination of Kendrick, Dyson, Maybin, Jackson, and Granderson would be a better outfield than the Giants can trot out there.
    Since Pence can't be traded and his salary is about as much as 2 of those OFers, he could be in LF (with Parker) with good fielders in right and center. That eliminates Kendrick and probably Granderson from the list, but Pence/Parker could end up positive in left then if and when Slater, Duggar, Mac, Shaw, or one of the reaches is ready, maybe there would be some offense also.

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