One of the better kept secrets in the Giants organization is how they have quietly built a young cohort of prospects in the lower minors who are poised to progress through the farm system, more or less together and potentially be a welcome source or talent for the 2020's. Of course, most analysts know about Heliot Ramos, the Giants first round draft pick in 2017 and got off to a tremendous start to his pro career. The Marlins reportedly thought highly enough of him that they insisted on his inclusion in the now defunct Giancarlo Stanton trade. Less well known is an impressive cast of prospects who played the 2017 season as teenagers. What also may be overlooked is the Giants are poised to made at least 2 significant additions to this core in 2018 in the draft where they have the 2'nd overall pick and the international market where they will be out from under the Lucius Fox penalty on July 2 and have north of $4 M in their bonus pool. They are reportedly in on a high level international prospect for the upcoming signing period. Combine Heliot Ramos, the #2 overall draft pick and the high level international prospect and suddenly they have a potential 3-headed monster of elite prospects in the farm system. With that for a background, let's run down the Giants key prospects who played the 2017 season as teenagers:
-Heliot Ramos, OF: DOB 9/7/1999. One really great thing about Ramos is he is almost a full year younger than most 2017 HS draft prospects. He got a full rookie ball season under his belt at age 17 and can now play his first full pro season, likely in Augusta, at age 18.
-Sandro Fabian, OF: DOB 3/6/1998. Fabian played the full 2017 season as a 19 yo in Augusta. While he struggled at times, he managed to keep his head above water and went on a late season tear. He appears ready to play his age 20 season in San Jose which is only 2 steps away from the major leagues.
-Ricardo Genoves, C: DOB 5/14/1999. Genoves was the other major signing in the Lucius Fox international cycle. The Giants are bringing him along slowly but he is drawing the attention of some scouts for his tools as a catching prospect.
-Jacob Gonzalez, 3B: DOB 6/26/1998. While JGone is more than a year older than Heliot Ramos, he showed an advanced approach at the plate in rookie ball and should do well as a 19 yo in Augusta.
-Seth Corry, LHP: DOB 11/3/1998. Corry had his ups and downs in rookie ball with severe control issues at times but dominance when he was able to throw strikes. Again, almost a year older than Ramos, but the Giants have had some success ironing out control issues giving hope that Corry can thrive in Augusta at age 19.
-Ismael Munguia, OF: DOB 10/19/1998. Munguia is a scrappy, undersized DSL graduate who played in the States at age 18.
-Diego Rincones, OF: DOB 6/14/1999. Another DSL graduate. Just 3 months older than Ramos. Put up impressive numbers in Arizona.
-Alex Canario, OF: DOB 5/7/2000. Canario impressed with both his athleticism and performance in the DSL at age 17. He is poised to come to the States in 2018. BA included him in their 2018 Giants top 30 which is rare for a DSL player.
-Ghordy Santos, SS: DOB 9/2/1999. Santos got a #300 K bonus in the 2016 international cycle. He got off to a painfully slow start in his pro debut at age 17, but caught fire in August. Not clear if Giants will keep him in the DSL another season or bring him to the States in 2018, but I am cautiously optimistic about his long term success.
-Gregory Santos, RHP: DOB 8/8/1999. A hard throwing young RHP acquired in the Nunez trade to Boston. Already has 2 pro seasons under his belt and won't turn 19 yo until late August of 2018. Could he go directly from the DSL to Augusta?
While the Giants immediate future is fair to partly cloudy, their prospects for the 2020's are bright and about to get a lot brighter. Rather than trading from their teenage talent pool, the Giants need to be adding to it in the 2018 draft and international signing cycle.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Are these players good enough to build a future around or should they be used to trade for players that can help us now? I know the Giants aren't patient enough to wait until 2020 to be competitive. I don't think the fans are either. Small market teams can get away with getting their hopes up for a chance to see a young homegrown talent make it to the bigs but we don't have that luxury. Every one of these kids is a trade chip and we will be lucky if we see even one of them make it as a San Francisco Giant.
ReplyDeleteRamos, for one, is good enough to start building a future around and then you add in the #2 overall draft pick and one of the elite international prospects and you start to build a core cohort for the future. The rest of the bunch may be a bit iffier, but you only need 1 or 2 of them to breakout and you really got something to work with. That's what the current Dodger team is built around.
DeleteI believe the Giants can be competitive before 2021 without selling off the kids in the lower minors.
i actually think the giants should maybe look to move bum, shark, either melancon if he rebounds or strickland if cricky does well again and stock the farm up even more!!
ReplyDeleteThey do need to think long and hard about whether they want to give Bum a huge, longterm extension. If they don't, then they need to start thinking seriously about trading him now. With 2 very team-friendly years left on his contract, they could get quite a haul of MLB ready players for him right now.
DeleteI realize Bum would get some prospects who "might" workout or they might get a Souza, Verduga, Alderson and etc types....??? Bum has that Randy Johnson body and with his throwing motion, he is going to pitch well into his higher thirties. Why lose a No.1 on a chance, when the team can have a steady No.1 for years??? Bum is no Kershaw during the year, but Kershaw is no Bum in the playoffs. Is Bum worth the money, as compared to Cueto and the Shark? Except for a motorcycle, what has ever slowed Bum down? Me? I'd give him the money and not have to worry about a No.1 for good while... Just on opinion...
DeleteSo, here are Madison Bumgarner's average fastball velocities by year since 2012 per Fangraphs: 2012- 92.2, 2013- 92.5, 2014- 92.8, 2015- 93, 2016- 91.7, 2017- 92.3. See anything to be concerned for the future about there?
DeleteThanks for providing this list of players to help us get to know the system. Agreed, don't trade their talented youngsters away. Good organizations like the Giants don't make mistakes as to which minor leaguers to keep and which to trade away.
ReplyDeleteLG
If you trade Bumgarner now, after what he's done for the franchise, you've labelled yourself as a crappy front office. Good luck with that strategy. If you had the money or the stones to take on Stanton, you can add JD or McCutcheon.
ReplyDeleteTrading Bumgarner now would likely not be popular with the fanbase, but contrary to labelling themselves as "crappy", Sabes and Evans would be seen as being very smart and savvy in the industry for selling at perhaps his zenith and setting the Giants up for an extended run of competing with the Dodgers.
DeleteNeither JD nor McCutchen would give the Giants anything close to what Stanton would have. Stanton's power transcends the ballpark. That is not true of either JD or Cutch.
Martinez would bring a few wins not anywhere near what the Giants need. Has to play LF which is the resort for players on the guaranteed payroll. This would be $$ wasted.
DeleteMcCutcheon is totally on the decline -- would be Span for more money.
I'm not sure the front office could look any crappier than they already do. I read elsewhere that Stanton probably didn't want to come to SF because the Giants had done ZERO towards improving the CF or 3B situation when they should have looked like they'd already actively solved those problems and 'see? we're committed to winning'. This Bobby Evans era is sad. Need an OF? Get Span who was good back in the day. Need a setup man? Get Will Smith and then Bochy can refuse to use him while the rest of the bullpen implodes, then Will Smith can take a year off for surgery. Need a closer? Get Melancon who very promptly sucked and took a year off for surgery. So far, that's the Bobby Evans legacy. Maybe he signed Cueto, who in 2016 probably thought he was coming to an even year winner. That's in the plus column, he was great in 2016. Point is, the SF front office already looks pretty crappy for strapping themselves to long-term contracts when the players only have one or two quality years and then no one will take them off your hands, they just laugh at you and call you stupid. Probably what Jeter is trying to avoid - we might all think he's a genius in two or three years.
DeleteMM: A few of your points are fairly gross exaggerations. Span was only signed for 3 years and he's performed to his price so far. He was coming off hip surgery so it was probably not a great idea to thing he was going to cover the vast CF in AT&T Park, but it has not been a terrible signing. You can hardly blame Evans for Will Smith and Mark Melancon needing surgery. That can happen to any pitcher. Melancon's contract is a lot more than you want to pay for a closer, but if the Giants wanted an established one, that is what they were going to have to pay.
DeleteI do think the Giants have been too eager to sign their own core players to big, longterm contracts. That's why they need to take a hard look at how those have worked out, especially for pitchers and think twice about signing one with Bumgarner.
Oh, and I believe the Giants 3B and CF situations had zero to do with Stanton's decision. He clearly decided he only wanted to be part of a "superteam" and limited his options to those. He blew off the Cardinals, a team that arguably looks better on paper and has better management than the Giants, but was willing to go to the Cubs. He was looking for a virtual guarantee of a ring within the next 3 years, nothing less.
I was speaking to the perception of other players re: the Giants FO with "crappy" and I really meant "Horseshit" to use the more popular vernacular. I could care less what the Country Club set cares about the FO reputation. What future FA, say Beautiful Bryce Harper, would sign with an organization that treats one of their own like that? Why would you rather replenish the farm system when the reason why the Giants consistently have to "spackle and paste" with high-priced FA's is the failure to develop from the farm system?
DeleteThe Giants have been generous with their own players to a fault, so don't go calling them "H...S..." for trying to maximize their talent by selling high for once(which I don't think they will do because they do take care of their own to a fault). Stanton did not not choose the Giants because of how they treat their players. It was because he didn't think they had the talent to compete even with him on the roster. In this hypothetical proposed trade, Harper would be much more likely to sign with a team that 1. Has the money and 2. Has the young talent of Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Chad Green and Chance Adams than an aging and ineffective Madison Bumgerner signed to a 6 year contract.
DeleteAnd how would it "H...S..." to trade Bumgarner to the most elite franchise in baseball with a great chance to win 2 more rings?
DeleteI'm with you Dr B - trade Bumgarner now or July to desperate playoff contender for 2 or 3 SP prospects, Righetti will know who to get. Hope Cueto gets off to hot start and then trade him too for 2 or 3 SP prospects. Trade Samardjiza for Domingo Santana RF. Trade Strickland for Bradley Jr CF. Pence/Span LF.
ReplyDeleteArroyo 3B after red hot spring training. Stratton and Blach #1 and #2, Beede #3 Moore #4 and then start loading from newly developing youth. This bidding for services thing sucks - I'd rather watch young hungry talent coalesce into winners than watch ageing multi-millionaires underperform. Probably just me and I don't understand the average fan and what sells seats in the stadium....
Hey blog, I am with you on trading bum, since he could fetch some real solid prospects. With the June draft I could see Seth Beer or jered k are my desired options. I really hope the Giants continue to draft a positional player this June, even though their pitching pipeline is drying up. I would also like to see if the Giants, could snag couple of those newly appointed Braves free agents, I believe that could also help replenish the farm system. I don't want JD Martinez, especially for close to 200 million dollars, I would rather spend that 200 million dollars on a KC Royal combo of any of the 3 coming to SF. Blog, your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt the Giants are going to spend $200 M on anybody or any combination of bodies this offseason. They were willing to take on Stanton's contract for one reason: Larry Baer saw him as a marketing bonanza, a superstar who would not only capture the imagination of the fanbase but draw even more fans in. Nothing else out there this year will do that. I think they will keep their powder dry and take a shot at Bryce Harper next year.
DeleteHey Doc,
DeleteLove, to see the Giants sign BH. Blog, how many of you would like to see the Giants draft Seth Beer, or Jered k, to add to with Ramos, and others.
Giants should take the player they think has the best chance of becoming an impact player regardless of position. Right now, the organization needs pitching and it seems like I remember a couple of guys named Lincecum and Bumgarner working out quite well as high picks.
DeleteHankins, please please please... I watched some film on Ethan today and Wow, he is a Bum from the other arm. Nasty movement on all his pitches... Ethan doesn't throw like Bum, but he has that same fluid movement toward the plate...
ReplyDeleteHankins or Rocker would be fine with me. I have Kumar slightly ahead of Hankins due to sheer physicality, but I'd be fine with either.
DeleteBlog, I really prefer Seth Beer or Jered K, over those 2 mentioned above. I really, want the Giants to continue on the positional drafting side of things.
DeleteBeer and Kelenic are both interesting prospects. Right now, I have them ranked above Hankins and Rocker on my draft board, but that could change. The top 6 or 7 draft prospects are all approximately the same quality in my opinion. It would be awfully nice to add an ace pitching prospect or two to the system.
DeleteHey DrB, thanks for doing the digging on this list. I'll add Gregory Santos, the righty acquired for Nunez. People seem to be pretty impressed by his velocity & breaking ball already. - Cove Chatter
ReplyDeleteThanks, Covechatter. Was going to include Santos, then it slipped my mind.
DeleteI added Gregory Santos at the bottom of the list in the text.
DeleteThe Yankees acquisition of Stanton increases Bumgarner's value. As painful as it would be to trade him, teams like Houston, Boston and Chicago have look at getting to the WS, and winning it a little differently since the Yankee trade. Getting over the top might require a pitcher capable of delivering post season excellence. MadBum fills the bill. Given his track record, durability (the injury last year was a freak incident) and team friendly contract for the next couple years, the Giants could reasonably expect to get major league ready talent AND elite prospect back in a trade.
ReplyDeleteLet me throw a crazy idea out there. How about MadBum to the Yankees for Hicks (probably expendable with the acquisition of Stanton), Frazier, Torres, Chad Green and RHP prospect Chance Adams. That would be a huge return for the Giants, many might even suggest the Yankees would be giving up too much. But, look at the Yankees chances after acquiring MadBum. MadBum changes the way you look at the Yankees even more than Stanton does, in my opinion.
Check out my post from 11/14/2017: Armchair GM: The Giants Should Trade Madison Bumgarner.
DeleteDoc, I did see you earlier post on trading Bumgarner. I used it as a starting point for the somewhat unbalanced trade I threw out.
DeleteThe Giants aren't going to wait around until 2020 to try and compete and Bobby Evans won't be around that long if they do! Things seem pretty bleek right now but I don't think all hope is lost. Holes can be filled and it doesn't have to be with 100+ million dollar guys like JD Martinez.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants were willing to pay an additional 25 million or so by taking on Stanton's contract so it is reasonable to believe they are prepared to spend money this offseason. Instead of one player who filled one on-the-field hole and put butts in the seats, they can find 2-3 impact bats for half the price that can actually help us win which will continue to put butts in the seats. I looked up a few projections and they may be a little off but here are 3-4 players that can help the Giants win in 2018:
Jay Bruce 3 yrs - 39 mil
Logan Morrison 3 yrs - 36 mil
Todd Frazier 3 yrs - 33 mil
Cameron Maybin 2 yrs - 20?
We need a RH bat to balance out this lineup in the middle and Todd Frazier could be a nice hole filler for the next few years at 3B and for under 40 million. The power would play at AT&T and he could fit in the lineup behind on-base guys like Posey, Belt, and Panik who had nobody driving them in last year.
Jay Bruce has good numbers at AT&T and wouldn't be any worse than Nunez was last year in LF. His bat will play with maybe a few less HR's but more doubles and triples. 3 years and under 40 million wouldn't kill our budget.
Cameron Maybin may be the next Denard Span but I still think if healthy he has good upside and is worth a shot on a 2 year deal. He can fill the CF hole and provide some depth. Best case scenario he leads off and gets on base at a .350 clip next season.
I could see a lineup like this giving us a chance to win next year:
Panik 2B
Posey C
Belt 1B
Frazier 3B
Bruce LF
Pence RF
Crawford SS
Maybin CF
That would be a competitive lineup that wouldn't kill the budget or require the Giants to give up any prospects. Adding 50+ homeruns between Frazier and Bruce is kind of like adding Stanton to the lineup right? No long term deals that impact signing Harper or Machado or Dozier next year or block any of the teenagers that will be coming up in the 2020's while giving them a reasonable chance to be competitive for the next 2 years. This would not be a very good defensive team but we once won a world series with Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff in the field.
I could be wrong here, but now that Stanton is out of reach, I expect the Giants to make every effort to stay under the CBT threshold, which means they will most likely go back to their blueprint from the postseason press conference where they said they would prefer to fill holes through trades than free agency.
DeleteWith all due respect Anonymous, that line-up is just good enough to be marginally competitive, and that approach pushes the Giants towards mediocrity for an extended period. Posey is a truly great player, but within 2-3 years we have to accept that his offensive production will decline. Belt and Crawford will likely be in decline in that time frame, as well. Cueto, though I think he still has some gas in the tank, has probably seen his best years. As Doc points out, the Giants have some promising talent in the lower minors, but more young talent and almost-major-league-ready talent is needed.
DeleteThe Giants should bite the bullet. It's not fun, in fact it's painful. But, as Giants fans we have been blessed. We should be wiling to the franchise time to rebuild.
Yes, I would be ecstatic about having Harper on the Giants. It would be like having Bonds again, only this time there will hopefully be a better supporting cast. However I fully expect the Yankees to go all out to get him- he would the the left handed hitting power bat they need to complement their RH power, maybe the final piece of their puzzle. I also recall from the SI article years ago when Harper was still a high schooler that his dream is to play for the Yankees. So unlike Ohtani to the Yanks, which was just speculation, Harper wanting to go to the Yanks has been documented. Of course that was long ago and things change, but Harper and Yankee Stadium are a match made in baseball heaven.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Giants 2018 draft, I have been a proponent of Hankins since the get go, so I am in total agreement with provguard. The Giants had a lot of success for a number of years with pitching-heavy drafts, keeping the quality arms and trading off other arms to fill positional needs. However, this draft is strong on pitching, both college and prep, so I have a sneaking suspicion the Giants go with another of their tendencies- up the middle position players. If the Giants are convinced he can stay at SS I could see them springing for Nander de Sedas, who is described as Francisco Lindor with a better bat but lesser defense. Having lesser defense than Lindor describes nearly every other SS on the planet, and his bat is already among the best in the game, so de Sedas would be the heir apparent to Crawford, who might be prime for a position change when de Sedas is major league ready.