Craig Mish of Sirius XM Radio dropped a pretty big rumor yesterday that 3 members of the Giants management team, Brian Sabean, Bobby Evans and Bruce Bochy flew to Los Angeles to meet with representatives for Giancarlo Stanton. Nobody is disputing this story, so we'll assume it is true. A follow up tweet from someone named Joe Frisaro says this meeting does not mean a trade is imminent which means that Frisaro agrees the meeting either took place or will take place. This is a significant development since the Marlins would. have to OK any such meeting and they likely would not approve it unless a tentative trade is in place.
So wow! Not sure where to start with this. I'll start with the thought that it is probably no accident that this meeting comes to light within a day of rumors that Stanton had expressed doubts about the future competitiveness of the Giants. The purpose of the meeting is likely to give the Giants executives a chance to convince him they have a plan to remain competitive or even dominant despite carrying the majority of his contract. In Stanton's mind, that likely means they are not going to dump veteran players like Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija or even Brandon Belt and that they can and will also extend Madison Bumgarner's contract which means the Giants are likely to have to tell him they are willing to live significantly above the Competitive Balance Tax(CBT) line.
Stanton's representatives may also ask for compensation for waiving his no-trade clause, and for moving from a from a low tax state to a high tax state. Of course, he would have the same issue with his rumored preferred destination, the Dodgers. My guess is a guarantee of the team option for 2028 would get past that hurdle and I cannot imagine the Giants allow the trade to get blocked by refusing that request.
It's still hard to believe the Giants can pull this deal off. We've seen this movie before when they sent a delegation to meet with Jon Lester, so we know things can still go awry. It does seem like we have to move the needle on the Giancarlo meter from unlikely to at least a serious possibility. We know the Marlins want to trade him to get that contract off their backs. We know the Giants need and want him and are willing to take on most or all of his contract. It appears the Giants are the most likely of several potential interested teams and the only one we know about that has gotten this far in the discussions.
At this point, I'll give the Giants even odds against the field of being Giancarlo Stanton's employer in 2018 and beyond.
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Interesting read on how the G's get to 94 Wins
ReplyDeletehttps://is.gd/VwnlrJ
If Panik is part of the rumored deal, gotta believe SF will insist on Yellich coming their way.
I'm not sure it's the Giants who hold the leverage in this situation.
DeleteI love the offseason. These rumors are making me giddier than a school girl. What a shot in the arm this would be for a team that has cried and cried for 2 decades about how hard it is to get power hitters to play here! What a steal too, Panik and 2 guys who probably will never impact a major league lineup for the MVP of the league?
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't solve all of their problems but neither did getting Barry Bonds 25 years ago but that seemed to work out well right? That was pretty much the only move they made that year and went from 70 to 103 wins! He was the highest priced free agent at the time as well. That one move you could argue is the reason why we have the most beautiful ball park in the world and have won 3 world series titles. Bonds was a god and Stanton could be as well.
The money is crazy and there is injury history and many other holes that seemingly need to be filled but this is a good move!! As a fan I don't see how anyone could complain about this move. This is the definition of making an effort this offseason and I'm pretty excited to see how it turns out.
The Giants know their finances much better than we do. If they believe they can afford Stanton's contract, it's a great deal for the fans. When you consider that many analysts are projecting $300+ M for Manny Machado and $400+ M for Bryce Harper next offseason, Stanton's contract doesn't look so bad.
DeleteThe Giants have a plan!
ReplyDeleteAssuming they’re not crazy, it might be as simple as runs per game.
They finished #29 in 2017 in R/G – the Padres beat them out for last by 0.21 in R/G, but the Pads also hit 61 more HRs – hint hint: Stanton hit 59.
The 10 teams that made the playoffs all finished in the top 12 in most R/G, only Texas and Miami didn’t make it giving up more than 5 R/G. No one in the top half of most R/G allowed made the playoffs. The Giants did poorly in this regard so they need rebounds from Moore, Cueto, and a few others plus a full year from Bumgarner. A good CFer would help.
Stanton would be the biggest boost possible for scoring runs. Some speed and OBP would help, too. Perhaps that’s the push for Gordon. The two played in nearly all the Marlins games averaging nearly 1.5 runs per game. We can’t just add that because some guys won’t be playing. OTOH, those who are playing alongside of Stanton and Gordon will score more runs than they did without them. Not a push but 1.16 more R/G pushes the Giants into 1st in the NL and 3rd overall.
If the Giants promised Stanton they won’t trade Cueto or Samardzija, maybe the promise isn’t forever (can’t be, can it?), and perhaps they can get Miami to take Pence for a year to ease the salary crunch for 2018. They’re protected against some of the CB penalties in 2018 aren’t they because they were so bad in 2017?
Keeping Span to play LF against RHP (with Stanton they should see more of them, no?) makes some sense, D is good enough, arm doesn’t hurt as much, and he hits better and with more power against RHP. Platoon with Slater who can be the 4th OFer. Still need a CFer. Could trade with Moore? He’s a serviceable back end starter, maybe could get a good glove with just a year before FA. With Belt healthy, having Arroyo, Jones, and Panda at 3rd, makes for some offense up and down the lineup except CF.
Hold the opposition to 4.5 R/G and it could be a winner.
I see that the ambassadors from St Louis are making the same trip to the court of King Giancarlo in LA as those from San Francisco have. Real interest? Negotiating ploy? Equal courtesy to all announced suitors?
DeleteThe fan comments on various non-tenders announced on MLBTR have reassured me that the tone of sullen, self-assured, leadenly sarcastic resentment that one sees so often on Giants sites—MCC, Pavlovic’s column, but very rarely here—is pandemic among baseball fans of numerous teams, and using virtually the same aggrieved words. We may have lost nearly 100 gamesin 2017, but at least our fans are no worse than those of the Cardinals, Mariners, et al.
Cards talking to Giancarlo's people today. Feels like this is going to go a little longer. Would really like the G's to hang on to Heliot. He's FAR from the Majors, and may never get there, but, sure would be nice to have a serious blue chip guy in house.
ReplyDeleteYankees passed on Bam Bam, which is nice.
Here's a hypothetical on Giancarlo. Remember last August, Marlins put him on revocable waivers and no one claimed him.
ReplyDeleteWhat if the Giants had claimed him then? And the Marlins didn't pull him back and allowed the Giants' claim. (Cody Ross situation). Could Stanton have blocked the claim with his no-trade clause?
Anyone but Ramos and Arroyo! Anyone but Ramos and Arroyo! Recent report has the Marlins eyeing Beede, Shaw, Ramos and Aramis Garcia...
ReplyDeleteJ(SF)